Dolphins (

22.5) at
Bengals (

26.5)

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Week 4 is here and it starts with the undefeated Dolphins visiting the 1-2 Bengals in a matchup of a team overperforming expectations against one that has been underperforming so far. Remember here that Miami just played a LONG game against the Bills on Sunday, winning despite Buffalo running 90 offensive plays and dominating time of possession, all in the Florida heat and humidity. I don’t generally care much about narratives, but this feels like something of a letdown spot for the Dolphins on the road on a short week after an exhausting game (especially for their defense). Vegas has the Bengals as four-point favorites currently, which despite the disparity in records between the teams, feels accurate, though I’m frankly not sure how much of the current line has to do with uncertainty around the status of Tua Tagovailoa (more on this later).

Cincinnati

We’ll start with the Bengals. Joe Mixon is questionable with a minor ankle injury but is expected to play and he checks the boxes of “home favorite running back with a three-down role.” Mixon has disappointed from an efficiency perspective so far with just 2.8 yards per carry but the volume has been there: 58 carries and 20 targets in three games is juicy, juicy volume for a running back. At just $9k, he’s underpriced for his bell-cow role. Samaje Perine stole a touchdown last week and got some extra volume as the Bengals were dominating the game, but is generally a 20-25% of the snaps kind of backup, which only led to two carries and six targets in the first two games of the season. The whole “RB2 in Showdown” role has value, and Perine would be a smash should something happen to Mixon early in the game, but at $7,400, he’s effectively unplayable unless you want to build a lineup that is hypothesizing an early Mixon injury.

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

In the passing game, Joe Burrow has reached a somewhat comically cheap price of just $9,600, and even in a relatively slow start to the season he’s still put up two good scores and one decent score. We also have a massive price gap between Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins: $11,000 for Chase against just $8,200 for Higgins. These guys are 1A and 1B, with Higgins actually seeing more targets and more receiving yards in games in which they’ve played together over the last year. Higgins has also outscored Chase in the two games they’ve played together, with Chase going off in Week 1 when Higgins departed early. They’re both elite players, but it’s hard not to love the $2,800 discount on Higgins. I expect that will lead to more ownership, leaving Chase as a “pay up to be contrarian” option. Tyler Boyd is a slot receiver who has only reached 100 yards twice since the start of 2021 and is priced too closely to Higgins to be viewed as a “good” play. He’s a guy you’ll want to mix in, because the Bengals don’t throw to a lot of different guys, but he’s almost certainly going to need a touchdown to be relevant. He’s also priced in a Showdown dead zone, as from Higgins at $8,200 down to Hayden Hurst at $5,400, it’s only him and Chase Edmonds as viable plays, and since he’s in this gap where he’s one of just two viable guys, we can’t even count on the price being close to Higgins to give us a meaningful ownership discount on him. Speaking of Hurst, he’s one to keep an eye on the injury report for, as he saw 15 targets in his first two games while playing 78% of the snaps, before only playing 38% of the snaps and seeing two targets last week. He went into last week questionable with a groin injury, and still has that injury tag, so while he played he was clearly being managed carefully. If he keeps the questionable tag up till kickoff, it’s hard to know what to expect from him, leaving him as a volatile wildcard play. If he sheds the questionable tag before Thursday, I’d expect him to return to a 70%+ role with solid target volume. Behind Hurst, Mitchell Wilcox and Devin Asiasi will rotate in, but Wilcox is mostly a special teamer and Asiasi sucks, so they’re in the “MME punt pool” play even if Hurst is limited again (note that last week with Hurst playing just 38% of the snaps, Wilcox played 57% and got one target, while Asiasi played 35% and saw zero targets). You can also include Mike Thomas (the good one, not that dude on the Saints who’s always hurt) in your MME punt pools.