Kickoff Sunday, Oct 2nd 1:00pm Eastern

Bears (
17.75) at

Giants (
20.75)

Over/Under 38.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Bears Run D
22nd DVOA/23rd Yards allowed per carry
Giants Run O
11th DVOA/24th Yards per carry
Bears Pass D
10th DVOA/3rd Yards allowed per pass
Giants Pass O
25th DVOA/31st Yards per pass
Giants Run D
28th DVOA/25th Yards allowed per carry
Bears Run O
6th DVOA/14th Yards per carry
Giants Pass D
25th DVOA/15th Yards allowed per pass
Bears Pass O
32nd DVOA/30th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>
  • There is a reason this game has a paltry game total of 39.5 points.
  • It is more likely for Brian Daboll and Mike Kafka to paint a Monet with melted crayons than it is for Matt Eberflus and Luke Getsy to allow their dynamic quarterback room to blossom.
  • The Giants are running out of pass-catchers… again.
  • David Montgomery is dealing with knee and ankle injuries and missed practice Wednesday.
  • Two of the bottom eight teams in pass rate over expectation through three weeks.

How chicago Will Try To Win ::

It’s a bit deflating that Matt Eberflus, Luke Getsy, and the Chicago Bears get a sense of vindication for the way they’ve been playing through a 2-1 record. And maybe it is the best way to try and win games with their current roster and coaching staff, who am I to say differently? Either way, their current plan of attack is to crack down defensively and have their offense simply not lose the game for them. Quite the opposite of exciting. They’ve somehow managed to win two games while averaging the second fewest yards per drive on offense and the 13th most yards per drive on defense, cracking down in the red zone enough to hold opponents to just 19.0 points per game. That said, they played the 49ers at a waterpark, got blown out by the competent Packers, and narrowly escaped Lovie’s revenge (sounds like a cut rate ride at the fair, to be honest) for a 23-20 victory last week. I’ve ranted enough about this offense over the previous two weeks, but let’s grab a quick reminder. We’ve seen Getsy and the Bears attempt to mask the fact that they have the worst offensive line on paper in the league, utilizing heavy 12- and 21-personnel alignments, little-to-no pre-snap misdirection or motions, and 11.3 fewer pass attempts per game than the Falcons (who currently rank 31st in pass attempts per game at 26.3).

David Montgomery was quickly ruled out for the remainder of the Bears’ Week 3 game after leaving with an ankle injury and has been labeled as day-to-day by Eberflus. It was then announced that Montgomery is dealing with both ankle and knee injuries after he missed practice on Wednesday. Either way, as was shown in the preseason and so far this season, the Bears plan on utilizing a primary running back that sees 75-80% of the offensive snaps and running back opportunities. Whether that is David Montgomery or backup Khalil Herbert appears not to matter, with rookie Trestan Ebner on hand to soak up any additional change of pace duties left behind should Montgomery miss. Chicago’s offensive line has performed well in the run-blocking department to start the season, blocking for an above average 4.79 adjusted line yards and springing their running backs for an average 5.63 yards per carry. The matchup yields a well above average 4.94 net-adjusted line yards metric against an opponent allowing 5.54 yards per carry to opposing backfields through three games.

The Bears offense can best be described as a vanilla-heavy offense, with elevated rates of both 21- and 12-personnel, extreme rush rates, unexciting route trees for their primary pass-catchers, and a lack of trust in their second-year signal-caller. Wide receiver Darnell Mooney and tight end Cole Kmet are on the field almost every snap (I’m sure their respective conditioning is on point after running wind sprints for three weeks), Equanimeous St. Brown serves as the de facto WR2 playing 75-85% of the offensive snaps, and some combination of Dante Pettis, Byron Pringle, and Ihmir Smith-Marsette fills in for the remaining pass-catcher snaps. What’s even funnier is the fact that quarterback Justin Fields leads the league in percentage of passes thrown deep. There’s really nothing to see here until we see more enthusiasm from Getsy.

How new york Will Try To Win ::

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By Alex88 >>

OVERVIEW

  • Lowest total of Week 4
  • CHI’s implied total of 18 is the second lowest
  • Per numberFire, NYG ranks fifth in adj. seconds per play & CHI ranks eighth
  • CHI ranks dead last in pass rate over expectation at 19.7%, second lowest is SF at 13% (per numberFire)
  • They also rank dead last in plays per game at 53 (per Lineups.com)
  • Per TeamRankings.com, NYG ranks 10th in average time of possession, whereas CHI ranks 29th
  • CHI’s offensive line ranks 29th & NYG’s ranks 32nd (per PFF)

Justin Fields

  • 33rd in PFF passing grade (not a typo)
  • Worst in turnover worthy play % at 9.0%, second worst is Matt Ryan at 5.8%
  • Fifth in ADoT
  • 33rd in adj. completion % & in pressure to sack %
  • 31st in Pass EPA/play & 30th in on-target % (per 4for4’s NFL Player Stat Explorer)
  • His game logs: 8/17:121:2:1 & 11:28 // 7/11:70:0:1 & 8:20:1 // 8/17:106:0:2 & 8:47
  • He’s scored 4x his Week 4 DK salary ($5,300) twice in 14 games as a Bear
  • NYG ranks 13th in DK ppg allowed to QBs
  • Notable opposing QB scores since 2021: Dak Prescott 25.68 // Matthew Stafford 26.24

CHI Passing Attack

  • PFF’s 30th ranked WR core
  • Snap share: Darnell Mooney 91.4% // Cole Kmet 87% // Equanimeous St. Brown 78.4%
  • Target share: Mooney 24.4% // ESB 20% // Kmet 11.1%
  • Targets: Mooney 11 // ESB 9 // Kmet 5
  • Mooney ($5,000) ranks 22nd in target share, 16th in ADoT, & 22nd in WOPR (per 4for4, minimum of 10 targets)
  • He’s ranked 93rd in PFF receiving grade
  • His game logs: 1/3:8 // 1/2:-4 (not a typo) // 2/6:23
  • He scored 20+ DK pts five times last season
  • ESB ($4,200) ranks 55th in PFF receiving grade
  • His game logs: 1/3:18:1 // 2/4:39 // 1/2:20 & 2:43
  • He’s never scored 15+ DK pts
  • NYG ranks fifth in DK ppg allowed to WRs
  • Notable opposing WR scores since 2021: Tyreek Hill 27.4 // Terry McLaurin 30.7 // Cooper Kupp 37
  • Kmet’s ($3,200) game logs: 0/1:0 // 0/1:0 // 2/3:40
  • He hasn’t scored 15+ DK pts since 2020 (a season in which he scored 17.5, 22.9, & 24)
  • NYG ranks 13th in DK ppg allowed to TEs
  • Notable opposing TE scores since 2021: Darren Waller 16.2 // Dalton Schultz 20.7

CHI Rushing Attack

  • Snap share: David Montgomery 50.6% // Khalil Herbert 38.9%
  • Target share: Montgomery 13.3% // Herbert 8.9%
  • Targets: Montgomery 6 // Herbert 4
  • Attempts per game: Montgomery 11.7 // Herbert 11
  • Redzone touches: Justin Fields 8 // Herbert 8 // Montgomery 4
  • Montgomery ($6,200) ranks 21st in RYOE/carry & first in broken tackle % (per 4for4)
  • He’s 44th in PFF rushing grade
  • His game logs: 17:26 & 3/4:24 // 15:122 & 2/2:14 // 3:11 (just 11 snaps before injury)
  • He’s scored 4x his Week 4 DK salary eight times since 2019 (49 games)
  • Montgomery’s status for Week 4 is uncertain and he missed practice on Wednesday
  • Herbert ($5,700) ranks third in broken tackle %
  • He’s sixth in PFF rushing grade
  • His game logs: 9:45:1 // 4:38 // 20:157:2 & 2/2:12 (in relief of Montgomery)
  • He had four games of 15+ attempts last season
  • Those game logs: 18:75 // 19:97:1 & 2/3:15 // 18:100 & 5/5:33 // 23:72 & 2/2:-4
  • NYG ranks 22nd in DK ppg allowed to RBs
  • Notable opposing RB scores since 2021: Antonio Gibson 25.1 // Ezekiel Elliott 28.2

Daniel Jones

  • 27th in PFF passing grade
  • 30th in ADoT
  • Fourth in adj. completion %
  • 27th in Pass EPA/play & 23rd in on-target % (per 4for4)
  • His game logs: 17/21:188:2:1 & 6:25 // 22/34:176:1 & 10:21 // 20/37:196:0:1 & 9:79
  • Jones has scored 4x his Week 4 DK salary ($5,400) nine times in 42 games
  • CHI ranks eighth in DK ppg allowed to QBs
  • Notable opposing QB scores since 2021: Matthew Stafford 27.34 // Jimmy Garoppolo 30.28 // Kyler Murray 30.82 // Aaron Rodgers 32.64

NYG Passing Attack

  • PFF’s 32nd ranked WR core
  • Snap share: Sterling Shepard 80.5% // David Sills 67.8% // Richie James 61.5% // Daniel Bellinger 55.6%
  • Target share: Shepard 26.1% // James 18.5% // Sills 8.7% // Bellinger 6.5%
  • Targets: Shepard 24 // James 17 // Sills 8 // Bellinger 6
  • With Shepard lost for the season, Toney’s $4,100 Week 4 DK salary is the highest cost WR on the team
  • James’s ($4,000) ranks 52nd in PFF receiving grade
  • His game logs: 5/6:59 // 5/6:51 // 4/5:36
  • Back in 2020, he had a 36.4 DK pt explosion as a 49er vs. GB, but he has otherwise not hit 12 pts
  • Sills’s ($3,000) game logs: 3/4:37 // 2/4:20
  • Kenny Golladay ($3,900) has scored 20+ DK pts once as a Giant
  • Toney ($4,100) hit a ceiling score of 32.6 DK pts @ DAL last season, but has otherwise not scored 15 pts
  • CHI ranks ninth in DK ppg allowed to WRs
  • Notable opposing WR scores since 2021: Justin Jefferson 25.1 // Deebo Samuel 26.1 // Cooper Kupp 26.8 // Chris Godwin 28.1 // Mike Evans 31.6 // Davante Adams 37.1
  • Bellinger’s ($2,800) game logs: -/- // 1/1:16:1 // 4/5:40
  • CHI ranks 12th in DK ppg allowed to TEs
  • Notable opposing TE scores since 2021: Mark Andrews 15.3 // Gerald Everett 16.8 // Pat Freiermuth 21.3

Saquon Barkley

  • Barkley ($8,000) ranks 11th in rush share, fifth in RYOE/carry, & 10th in HVT% (per 4for4)
  • His 16.3% target share is fourth best among all RBs
  • He ranks 17th in PFF rushing grade
  • Barkley’s game logs: 18:164:1 & 6/7:30 // 21:72 & 3/4:16 // 14:81:1 & 4/4:45
  • His 23.6 DK ppg is tied for first with Nick Chubb
  • His DK salary hasn’t been this high since early 2020
  • In 48 career games, he’s scored 4x that salary seven times
  • CHI ranks 20th in DK ppg allowed to RBs
  • Notable opposing RB scores since 2021: Kareem Hunt 27.5 // Aaron Jones 35