Kickoff Sunday, Oct 2nd 1:00pm Eastern

Bills (
26.5) at

Ravens (
23.5)

Over/Under 50.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Bills Run D
9th DVOA/13th Yards allowed per carry
Ravens Run O
15th DVOA/3rd Yards per carry
Bills Pass D
1st DVOA/1st Yards allowed per pass
Ravens Pass O
1st DVOA/13th Yards per pass
Ravens Run D
22nd DVOA/1st Yards allowed per carry
Bills Run O
31st DVOA/6th Yards per carry
Ravens Pass D
14th DVOA/32nd Yards allowed per pass
Bills Pass O
5th DVOA/9th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>
  • The “all eyes on me” game this week.
  • Two of the top six teams in pass rate over expectation through three weeks.
  • Baltimore’s elite per-play production (first in yards per play) offsets an offensive profile that appears low volume on the surface (only 55.3 plays per game).
  • Buffalo has run a massive 71.0 offensive plays per game and pass at the fourth highest overall rate.
  • Keep a trained eye on the injury reports from each team as the week progresses – there are some big names on both reports to start the week.
  • Josh Allen used to struggle against the blitz – it used to be one of the only things that made him appear human . . . heavy emphasis on “used to.”

How buffalo Will Try To Win ::

The Bills and Ravens are closer in their plans of attacks than most people realize this year, with elevated pass rates and unreal efficiency placing additional strain on their defense. The major difference lies in their defensive plan of attack, where the Bills are able to settle into heavy zone coverages due to their elite defensive line generating organic pressure, whereas the Ravens play some of the highest man coverage rates and highest blitz rates in the league. Why is that important to understand off the rip? The efficiencies of each of these offenses have deflated the total offensive snaps each has run thus far (56, 59, and 60 for Baltimore and 59, 52, and 92!!! for the Bills) but if the team on the other side is equally as efficient, then what happens? Hint: it looks a lot like the outlier in the snap numbers above (92), which came against another top offense in the league in Miami last week. We know by now how the Bills are going to try and win games, with the ball primarily in Josh Allen’s hands. Brian Daboll designed an intricate offense to leverage Allen’s mobility and arm strength, developing him into a capable pocket passer along the way. New offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey now gets the privilege of calling plays for a blueprint with proven success, and he has largely done a solid job to this point. Josh Allen’s 6.8 intended air yards per pass attempt highlights the short area work being primarily utilized so far, with the offense still utilizing layered route trees through the dynamic abilities of their pass-catching corps.

On the ground, Devin Singletary runs as the true lead back, with fullback Reggie Gilliam, holdover change of pace back Zack Moss, and rookie James Cook mixing in sparingly behind him. A standard week allots only eight to 10 carries and two to three targets, but we saw what can happen against specific opponents and subsequent game plans last week against the Dolphins, where Singletary accounted for nine carries and led the team with 11 targets. Why is that important here? Well, Singletary checks in with the third most routes run on the season, behind only Saquon Barkley and Joe Mixon, and the Ravens and Dolphins employ similar base defenses. The pure rushing matchup yields a below-average 4.08 net-adjusted line yards metric against what should be considered the strength of the Baltimore defense (in its current state).

The pass game continues to be an embarrassment of riches, with Gabe Davis the only true every-down pass-catcher as the team has elected to hold Stefon Diggs to the 65-70% snap rate range, keeping him fresh and deadly on a per-snap basis. Isaiah McKenzie, Jamison Crowder, and Jake Kumerow mix in behind the top two, typically dependent on matchup and game plan. Dawson Knox should be considered a near-every-down tight end and is in a route at a 66% clip (19th in the league). The development of Knox as a blocker and the health of the secondary pass-catchers has appeared to sap some of his upside in the pass game (75.4% route participation last year). This week, Bills pass catchers should find themselves in man coverage at an increased rate, against which Stefon Diggs, Isaiah McKenzie, and Gabriel Davis all have historically excelled.

How baltimore Will Try To Win ::

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By Alex88 >>

OVERVIEW

  • Highest total of Week 4
  • BUF’s implied total of 27.25 is the highest, BAL’s 24.25 ranks eighth
  • BAL ranks 29th in adj. seconds per play (per numberFire)
  • Also per numberFire, BUF ranks first in pass rate over expectation & BAL ranks fifth
  • BAL’s 33 ppg ranks first & BUF’s 30.3 ranks third
  • BUF ranks fifth in plays per game & BAL ranks 29th
  • BUF ranks fourth in avg. time of possession (per TeamRankings.com) & BAL ranks 26th
  • BAL’s offensive line ranks 10th & BUF’s ranks 25th (per PFF)

Josh Allen

  • 12th in PFF passing grade
  • Tied for fourth worst in turnover worthy play %
  • 28th in ADoT
  • Second in adj. completion %
  • Fourth in Pass EPA/play & 15th in on-target % (per 4for4’s NFL Player Stat Explorer)
  • Allen’s 32.3 DK ppg ranks second
  • His game logs: 26/31:297:3:2 & 10:56:1 // 26/38:317:4 // 42/63:400:2 & 8:47
  • He’s scored 4x his Week 4 DK salary ($8,400) 16 times in 72 games
  • BAL ranks 31st in DK ppg allowed to QBs
  • Notable opposing QB scores since 2021: Joe Burrow 30.64 // Burrow 41.1 // Tua Tagovailoa 43.86

BUF Passing Attack

  • PFF’s fourth ranked WR core
  • Snap share: Dawson Knox 74.4% // Stefon Diggs 67.1% // Gabe Davis 66.7% // Isaiah McKenzie 47.5%
  • Target share: Diggs 26.1% // McKenzie 11.2% // Knox 8.2% // Gabe 8.2%
  • Targets: Diggs 34 // McKenzie 15 // Knox 11 // Gabe 11
  • Diggs ($8,400) ranks 16th in target share, 17th in air yard share, 17th in WOPR, sixth in YPRR, & ninth in TPRR (per 4for4)
  • He ranks second in PFF receiving grade
  • His game logs: 8/9:122:1 // 12/14:148:3 // 7/11:74
  • His 30.5 DK ppg ranks first
  • His Week 4 DK salary is his highest in three seasons as a Bill
  • Diggs has scored 30+ DK pts six times in 42 games as a Bill
  • McKenzie ($5,100) ranks 39th in PFF receiving grade
  • His game logs: 2/3:19:1 // 2/3:37 // 7/9:76:1
  • He’s scored 4x his Week 4 DK salary three times in his past 29 games
  • Gabe ($5,100) ranks 68th in PFF receiving grade
  • His game logs: 4/5:88:1 // 3/6:37
  • He had three 20+ DK pt games last season (including 55.1 @ KC in the Divisional Round)
  • BAL ranks 32nd in DK ppg allowed to WRs
  • Notable opposing WR scores since 2021: Darnell Mooney 26.1 // Diontae Johnson 33.5 // Ja’Marr Chase 37.1 // Jaylen Waddle 43.1 // Tyreek Hill 45 // Tee Higgins 46.4
  • Knox ($3,800) ranks 34th in PFF receiving grade
  • His game logs: 1/2:5 // 4/5:41 // 4/4:25
  • He’s scored 15+ DK pts seven times since 2019
  • BAL ranks 19th in DK ppg allowed to TEs
  • Notable opposing TE scores since 2021: Noah Fant 16.6 // C.J. Uzomah 24.1 // Travis Kelce 26.9 // Darren Waller 29.5

BUF Rushing Attack

  • Snap share: Devin Singletary 63.5% // Zack Moss 23.3%
  • Target share: Singletary 11.9% // Moss 6%
  • Attempts per game: Singletary 7.7 // Moss 4.3
  • Redzone touches: Singletary 8 // Josh Allen 4 // Moss 1
  • Singletary ($5,900) ranks second in HVT%, per 4for4 (minimum 20 carries)
  • He’s 30th in PFF rushing grade
  • His game logs: 8:48 & 2/2:14 // 6:19 & 2/4:2 // 9:13 & 9/11:78:1
  • He’s scored 4x his Week 4 DK salary four times since last season
  • Moss ($5,000) scored 20+ DK pts once last year
  • BAL ranks 26th in DK ppg allowed to RBs
  • Notable opposing RB scores since 2021: Rhamondre Stevenson 20.1 // D’Andre Swift 23.7 // Joe Mixon 31.5 // Jonathan Taylor 34.9

Lamar Jackson

  • Third in PFF passing grade
  • Second in ADoT
  • Fifth in Pass EPA/play & 27th in on-target % (per 4for4)
  • Lamar’s 37.7 DK ppg ranks first
  • His 81 rushing ypg ranks first
  • His game logs: 17/30:213:3:1 & 6:17 // 21/29:318:3 & 9:119:1 // 18/29:218:4:1 & 11:107:1
  • Lamar’s scored 4x his Week 4 DK salary ($8,300) 14 times in 56 games, which is exactly 25%
  • BUF ranks first in DK ppg allowed to QBs
  • Notable opposing QB scores since 2021: Tom Brady 33.12 // Patrick Mahomes 43.02

BAL Passing Attack

  • PFF’s 26th ranked WR core
  • Snap share: Mark Andrews 85.7% // Rashod Bateman 62.9% // Devin Duvernay 54.9%
  • Target share: Andrews 35.2% // Bateman 18.2% // Isaiah Likely 12.5% // Duvernay 9.1%
  • Targets: Andrews 31 // Bateman 16 // Likely 11 // Duvernay 8
  • Bateman ($5,600) ranks third in ADoT & third in YPRR (per 4for4)
  • He’s 48th in PFF receiving grade
  • His game logs: 2/5:59:1 // 4/7:108:1 // 2/4:59
  • Bateman’s scored 20+ DK pts twice in 14 games
  • Duvernay ($4,100) ranks 22nd in PFF receiving grade
  • His game logs: 4/4:54:2 // 2/2:42 & 1 kick return TD // 2/2:25:1
  • His two TD game in Week 1 was his first time scoring 15+ DK pts (he hit 21.4)
  • BUF ranks 12th in DK ppg allowed to WRs
  • Notable opposing WR scores since 2021: Kendrick Bourne 28.1 // Tyreek Hill 34.8 // Cooper Kupp 34.8
  • Andrews ($7,100) ranks first in target share, first in air yard share, second in ADoT, first in WOPR, first in YPRR, & first in TPRR
  • He’s PFF’s highest graded tight end
  • Andrews’s game logs: 5/7:52 // 9/11:104:1 // 8/13:89:2
  • His 22.6 DK ppg leads the league (second place is Travis Kelce with 19)
  • He’s scored 4x his Week 4 DK salary six times in 69 career games
  • BUF ranks fourth in DK ppg allowed to TEs
  • Notable opposing TE scores since 2021: Travis Kelce 17.7 // Kelce 23.6

BAL Rushing Attack

  • Snap share: Justice Hill 34.9% // J.K. Dobbins 14.9%
  • Target share: Hill 2.3% // Dobbins 2.3%
  • Targets: Hill 2 // Dobbins 2
  • Attempts per game: Dobbins 7 // Hill 3.7
  • Redzone touches: Lamar Jackson 4 // Dobbins 2
  • Hill’s ($4,000) game logs: 2:4 & 2/2:7 // 3:16 // 6:60
  • He’s yet to score 12+ DK pts in 14 games
  • Dobbins’s ($5,300) game log: 7:23 & 2/2:17
  • He hit highs of 18.5 & 31 DK pts during the 2020 season before his injury during the ramp up to the 2021 season
  • BUF ranks fourth in DK ppg allowed to RBs
  • Notable opposing RB scores since 2021: Leonard Fournette 26.2 // Damien Harris 31.3 // Derrick Henry 38.6 // Jonathan Taylor 56.4