Kickoff Sunday, Oct 2nd 1:00pm Eastern

Jets (
19) at
Steelers (
22)

Over/Under 41.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Jets Run D
14th DVOA/11th Yards allowed per carry
Steelers Run O
12th DVOA/17th Yards per carry
Jets Pass D
3rd DVOA/7th Yards allowed per pass
Steelers Pass O
19th DVOA/20th Yards per pass
Steelers Run D
13th DVOA/20th Yards allowed per carry
Jets Run O
32nd DVOA/13th Yards per carry
Steelers Pass D
7th DVOA/29th Yards allowed per pass
Jets Pass O
31st DVOA/31st Yards per pass

Game Overview::

By hilow >>
  • These two teams combine for the fastest pace of play in Week 4.
  • Two of the bottom five teams in net drive success rate (the average of offensive DSR and defensive DSR – a measure of a team’s overall effectiveness on each side of the ball).
  • Both teams are about league average in pass rate over expectation, with the Jets leading the league in overall pass rate, and checking in second in offensive plays per game.
  • Jets quarterback Zach Wilson managed all of nine offensive snaps in the preseason before injuring his knee, meaning we have very little to go off with so many new toys on offense.

How new york Will Try To Win ::

We’ve grown comfortable in projecting how the Jets will try and win games over the first three weeks of the season, which now gets the proverbial wrench thrown in, with the likely season debut of quarterback Zach Wilson, whom the team expects to gain clearance in time for Sunday following a preseason knee bruise and meniscus injury. And while that change likely doesn’t affect how the Jets will try to win to any meaningful degree, what it is likely to do is influence the effectiveness of the offense. The Jets currently sport a 20th-ranked drive success rate on offense after finishing 27th in the metric in 2021, which makes sense considering Wilson’s modest 7.6 intended air yards per pass attempt, low 55.6% completion percentage, and basement 3.3 completed air yards per pass attempt metric. What is likely to be sustained moving forward are the blistering pace (third-ranked first-half pace of play and first overall), the elevated pass rates (the team averages 52.0 pass attempts per game over the first three games), and the low combined drive success rate between the team’s offense and defense.

The poor overall efficiency of the offense and defense have combined to allow the Jets only 19.0 rush attempts per game through three weeks, the third-fewest in the league. This is concerning as the clear path of least resistance against the Steelers is on the ground. One positive is the improvements we’ve seen from the offensive line, a unit that ranks 14th in the league in adjusted line yards and 15th in adjusted sack rate allowed, both marked improvements over last season. Michael Carter played the lead back role the first two weeks of the season (60% and 61% snap rates), but split snaps evenly with rookie Breece Hall in Week 3. Consider the backfield a true timeshare, with Hall the more dynamic and complete back. The matchup on the ground yields a solid 4.37 net-adjusted line yards metric against a Steelers defense allowing 4.18 yards per running back carry.

Rookie wide receiver Garrett Wilson and newcomer tight end Tyler Conklin have stolen the show over the first three weeks of the season. The Jets have run almost exclusively from 11- and 12-personnel, meaning we should expect Elijah Moore and Corey Davis to continue to operate as near every-down wide receivers, with Wilson ceding work to Braxton Berrios, the tight ends, and even Jeff Smith. Wilson leads the team in targets per route run by a wide margin, but the low 60-65% expected snap share leaves very little room for error from a fantasy perspective. We have all of nine preseason offensive snaps for Zach Wilson to work from this year, and with so many new additions to the offense this offseason, it’s almost futile to try and project Wilson’s potential chemistry and/or first read. More additions to the “wide range of outcomes bucket.”

How Pittsburgh Will Try To Win ::

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By Alex88 >>

OVERVIEW

  • Third lowest total of Week 4
  • NYJ’s implied total of 19 is tied for the third lowest
  • NYJ ranks first in adj. seconds per play (per numberFire) & PIT ranks 11th
  • NYJ ranks third in plays per game & PIT ranks 26th
  • PIT is dead last in average time of possession (per TeamRankings.com)
  • PIT’s offensive line ranks 21st & NYJ’s ranks 28th (per PFF)

Zach Wilson

  • In 2021, Wilson ranked 35th in PFF passing grade, 23rd in ADoT, 34th in adj. completion %, & third worst in pressure to sack %
  • He ranked 35th in Pass EPA/play and on-target % (per 4for4’s Player Stat Explorer)
  • Wilson has scored 4x his Week 4 DK salary ($5,200) twice in 13 games 
  • His stat lines from those games: 23/38:226:2:1 // 14/22:102:1 & 4:91:1
  • PIT ranks 17th in DK ppg allowed to QBs
  • Notable opposing QB scores since 2021: Joe Burrow 26.22 // Derek Carr 27.18 // Justin Herbert 38.28 // Patrick Mahomes 41.06

NYJ Passing Attack

  • PFF’s 19th ranked WR core
  • Snap share: Elijah Moore 90.1% // Tyler Conklin 90.1% // Corey Davis 77.6% // Garrett Wilson 57.3%
  • Target share: Wilson 20.5% // Conklin 15.4% // Moore 14.1% // Davis 12.2%
  • Targets: Wilson 32 // Conklin 24 // Moore 22 // Davis 18
  • Wilson ($5,400) ranks fifth in end zone target share & 10th in TPRR (per 4for4)
  • He ranks 10th in PFF receiving grade
  • His game logs: 4/8:52 // 8/14:102:2 // 6/10:60
  • Wilson’s 18.1 DK ppg ranks 16th
  • Moore ($4,800) ranks seventh in ADoT
  • He’s 81st in PFF receiving grade
  • His game logs: 5/7:49 // 3/5:41 // 4/10:49
  • Moore’s scored 4x his Week 4 DK salary three times in 13 games
  • Davis ($4,500) ranks fourth in ADoT
  • He’s 56th in PFF receiving grade
  • His game logs: 6/9:77 // 2/4:83:1 // 2/5:27
  • He’s scored 20+ DK pts twice in his last 12 games
  • PIT ranks 27th in DK ppg allowed to WRs
  • Notable opposing WR scores since 2021: Henry Ruggs 25.5 // Byron Pringle 25.5 // Nelson Agholor 26 // Amari Cooper 26.1 // Tee Higgins 26.4 // Courtland Sutton 28 // Ja’Marr Chase 31.9
  • Conklin ($3,600) ranks 11th in target share
  • He’s 37th in PFF receiving grade
  • His game logs: 4/7:14:1 // 6/9:40 // 8/8:84
  • Conklin’s 12.6 DK ppg ranks third
  • He’s scored 4x his Week 4 DK salary four times in 27 games since 2020
  • PIT ranks 18th in DK ppg allowed to TEs
  • Notable opposing TE scores since 2021: Mark Andrews 16.5 // David Njoku 23.9 // Travis Kelce 28.88

NYJ Rushing Attack

  • Snap share: Michael Carter 56.5% // Breece Hall 41.8%
  • Target share: Hall 13.5% // Carter 10.3%
  • Targets: Hall 22 // Carter 16
  • Attempts per game: Carter 9.3 // Hall 7
  • Redzone touches: Hall 4 // Carter 3
  • Carter ($5,200) ranks 19th in rush share, 23rd in RYOE/carry, fourth in broken tackle %, & fourth in HVT% (per 4for4)
  • He’s 18th in PFF rushing grade
  • His game logs: 10:60 & 7/9:40 // 7:23 & 5/5:27 // 11:39 & 1/2:7
  • He’s scored 20+ DK pts once in 17 games
  • Hall ($5,400) ranks 26th in PFF rushing grade
  • His game logs: 6:23 & 6/10:38 // 7:50 & 1/1:10:1 // 8:39 & 6/11:53
  • PIT ranks 25th in DK ppg allowed to RBs
  • Notable opposing RB scores since 2021: Jerick McKinnon 26.2 // Joe Mixon 35.3 // Dalvin Cook 38.2 // Austin Ekeler 41.5

Mitch Trubisky

  • 13th in PFF passing grade
  • Sixth in ADoT
  • 30th in adj. completion %
  • 28th in Pass EPA/play & 29th in on-target % (per 4for4)
  • Trubisky’s game logs: 21/38:194:1 // 21/33:168:1:1 // 20/32:207 & 2:7:1
  • In 56 career games, he’s scored 4x his Week 4 DK salary ($5,100) 15 times
  • NYJ ranks 20th in DK ppg allowed to QBs
  • Notable opposing QB scores since 2021: Mac Jones 25.18 // Taysom Hill 26.3 // Tom Brady 30.4

PIT Passing Attack

  • PFF’s 14th ranked WR core
  • Snap share: Chase Claypool 92.3% // Diontae Johnson 88.4% // Pat Freiermuth 82.3% // George Pickens 77.3%
  • Target share: Diontae 32% // Freiermuth 20.4% // Claypool 17.5% // Pickens 11.7%
  • Targets: Diontae 33 // Freiermuth 21 // Claypool 18 // Pickens 13
  • Diontae ($6,000) ranks fifth in target share, ninth in air yard share, 20th in ADoT, fifth in WOPR, & seventh in TPRR (per 4for4)
  • He ranks 12th in PFF receiving grade
  • His game logs: 7/12:55 // 6/10:57 // 8/11:84
  • In 52 career games, Diontae has scored 4x his Week 4 DK salary eight times
  • Claypool ($4,700) ranks 79th in PFF receiving grade
  • His game logs: 4/6:18 & 6:36 // 4/6:26 // 3/6:35 & 1:11
  • In 37 career games, he’s scored 4x his Week 4 DK salary five times
  • Pickens ($3,800) ranks 89th in PFF receiving grade
  • His game logs: 1/3:3 // 1/3:23 // 3/7:39
  • NYJ ranks 22nd in DK ppg allowed to WRs
  • Notable opposing WR scores since 2021: Stefon Diggs 23.1 // Tyler Boyd 23.5 // Diggs 33.2
  • Freiermuth ($4,200) ranks fifth in target share, fifth in air yard share, seventh in ADoT, fourth in WOPR, fifth in YPRR, & second in TPRR
  • He’s 13th in PFF receiving grade
  • His game logs: 5/10:75 // 4/7:22:1 // 2/4:41
  • Freiermuth’s 10.3 DK ppg ranks 11th
  • He’s scored 4x his Week 4 DK salary once in 21 games
  • NYJ ranks 14th in DK ppg allowed to TEs
  • Notable opposing TE scores since 2021: Rob Gronkowski 21.5 // Kyle Pitts 29.9 // Dallas Goedert 31.5

Najee Harris

  • Najee ($6,700) ranks ninth in rush share, 22nd in broken tackle %, & fifth in HVT% (per 4for4)
  • His 69.6% snap share ranks sixth
  • His 10.3% target share ranks 19th
  • He’s ranked 36th in PFF rushing grade
  • Last year he led all RBs in snap share (83.5%), target share (14.2%), & rush share (85.75%)
  • Even with leading those categories, his 18.9 DK ppg last season ranked fourth
  • His game log this year: 10:23 & 2/2:3:1 (just 37 snaps due to injury) // 15:49 & 5/6:40 // 15:56:1 & 3/3:5
  • He’s averaging 12.9 DK ppg this year so far
  • In 22 games, he’s scored 4x his Week 4 DK salary twice
  • NYJ ranks 19th in DK ppg allowed to RBs
  • Notable opposing RB scores since 2021: Joe Mixon 25.1 // Devin Singletary 25.2 // Alvin Kamara 27.5 // Christian McCaffrey 27.7 // Damien Harris 28.3 // Derrick Henry 28.7 // Nick Chubb 32.3 // Jonathan Taylor 37