Titans (

19.5) at
Colts (

23.5)

Game Overview ::

By hilow>>

• Both teams rank in the bottom half of the league in first-half pace of play (TEN-30^th, IND-19^th). Remember, it’s still too early to rely on situation-neutral pace of play metrics due to the low sample size of teams in those situations.
• Two of the bottom seven teams in pass rate over expectation through three weeks.
• If this game were to pop, it would almost certainly come through one of the high-profile running backs or both of them.
• The Colts are allowing the 11^th fewest yards per drive while the Titans are allowing the third most on defense.

How tennessee Will Try To Win ::

The Titans have become almost boring to write up because it has been the same story every week for the past four-plus seasons under Mike Vrabel – run the ball, control the clock, crack down defensively in the red zone, and limit mistakes on offense. And guess what!? They’re at it again in 2022. Shocker. Tennessee has run only 56 offensive plays per game through three weeks, due in large part to the fifth lowest pass rate over expectation paired with a large drive success rate (DSR) discrepancy. The Titans rank just 24^th in DSR on offense and allow a 25^th-ranked DSR on defense (not great, Bob). That leaves a rather tight range of expected pass volume (28-32 attempt range is the likeliest outcome in a standard week), with most of the upside coming through the run game as the path to increased volume. The low blitz rates and heavy zone concepts of their defense have held opponents to a moderate 7.6 defensive aDOT, with primary struggles coming through the increased volume against thus far.

Although Derrick Henry has seen snap rates of 68% and 74% in the two non-blowout game environments this season, his 54 of 58 non-blowout running back carries are good for a massive 93.1% team running back carry share. Said another way, Derrick Henry has seen a carry on 54 of his 113 offensive snaps this season. And even another way, 44.8% of Derrick Henry’s offensive snaps have led to a carry. I wanted to highlight it that way to emphasize the fact that the “standard Derrick Henry ceiling” has not left this year, even though he has yet to truly rip a ceiling game through three weeks. As for the matchup, not ideal. Indianapolis has held opposing running backs to 2.51 yards per carry on the backs of the top marks in adjusted line yards on defense, with the top overall second level rank and second overall stuffed rank. Conversely, Tennessee’s middling 3.99 adjusted line yards metric and 3.72 running back yards per carry form a troublesome 3.41 net-adjusted line yards metric and disgusting 3.11 net yards per carry value, particularly considering Taylor Lewan was lost for the season in Week 2. Although not yet perfect, we’re starting to get to the point in the season where I begin placing additional emphasis on net-adjusted line yards metrics – and these are not pretty.

Yea, yea, the Treylon Burks week is coming. I get it. And if you didn’t follow me this offseason for Best Ball content, you should know my love for Treylon Burks runs deep. But (yup, here comes the boom, ready or not), no pass-catcher for the Titans has seen a snap rate over 72% through three games. No pass-catcher for the Titans has seen double-digit targets in a game thus far. Also, Tennessee has utilized either a four or five-man rotation at wide receiver in every game this year. And finally, the Titans have attempted just 28.0 passes per game through three weeks. As such, all Tennessee pass-catchers must be viewed as low floor, moderate ceiling plays until we see either a narrowed utilization tree (possible) or increased pass rates (unlikely). So, yes, while Treylon is a beast of a man and carries immense upside, identifying when the breakout will come based on the likeliest scenario of four to seven targets in a standard week is a difficult task. Diatribe over . . . almost. All of Robert Woods, Treylon Burks, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Kyle Phillips (if active), Cody Hollister, Josh Gordon, Geoff Swaim, Austin Hooper, Derrick Henry, and Dontrell Hilliard are fighting for a piece of the likely 28-32 pass attempts on a standard week for Tennessee. For those keeping track at home, that’s 10 pass-catchers that see snaps for a low pass volume offense.  

How Indianapolis Will Try To Win ::