Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- Dallas holds the fourth lowest pass rate over expectation, while Washington holds the seventh highest pass rate over expectation.
- The Commanders are a breeding ground for fantasy production early in the season, and I will continue to look for ways to target their game environments before the field catches on.
- Both defenses are highly aggressive – combined with the above-average number of offensive plays we expect, that could lead to both increased opportunities for splash plays against and increased opportunities for defensive points to be scored.
How washington Will Try To Win ::
I don’t know if Week 3’s stumble from this Washington team is going to halt the masses from catching on to just how forward-leaning this offense has been to start the season, but I really hope it’s the case (and for my Inner Circle fam, we called for the Eagles to shut down the Commanders last week due to the heavy emphasis their defense places on unique packages designed to confuse a quarterback – hint, Carson Wentz is easily confused). This offense currently sits fourth in pass attempts per game (43.3), seventh in pass rate over expectation, 13th in intended air yards per pass attempt, and third in total intended air yards. What’s more, their defense is ceding the deepest defensive average depth of target in the league through three weeks (9.9), blitzes at the fifth highest rate in the league (34.1%), and has given up the 12th most yards after the catch to boot. All of that to say – their offense is aggressive, and they invite aggression against on defense due to elevated blitz rates and Cover-1. Yummy.
Antonio Gibson gets at least one more week as the unquestioned lead back with rookie Brian Robinson still on the IR/NFI list through Week 4. Gibson’s snap rate has seen a steady decline since a 64% showing in Week 1, ceding additional work to J.D. McKissic each subsequent week (McKissic’s snap rates have increased from 40% to 46% to 53%). Most of that can be explained by way of game environment, as the Commanders found themselves controlling the flow in Week 1 and playing from behind into the second half of Weeks 2 and 3. The biggest trend to note here is the pass game involvement of Gibson and McKissic, as Gibson started the season seeing eight targets in a controlled environment but dropped to four and one targets in Week 2 and 3, while McKissic started slowly with three targets, followed by seven and nine! Again, the workload split between the two should ultimately come down to game environment, at least for one more week (before Brian Robinson can return). The matchup on the ground yields a pedestrian 4.21 net-adjusted line yards metric behind an underperforming Washington offensive line generating only 3.10 running back yards per carry.
The pass game exploration must start with the offensive line, a unit that struggled to the tune of nine (!!!) sacks allowed against the Eagles last week. That same unit now has to block Micah Parsons and his league-leading 19 pressures. As I mentioned above, Wentz has been aggressive downfield so far this year, a trend that has continued from his time with the Eagles. That said, we could see a slight hit to the downfield aggression against the natural pass rush of the Cowboys, which could serve to filter additional looks over the short-to-intermediate middle of the field (Curtis Samuel, Logan Thomas, and the running backs) – that’s backed up by the data as the Cowboys have forced the least amount of air yards in the league through three games (216). Expect all of rookie Jahan Dotson, Terry McLaurin, and Curtis Samuel to see more than 80% of the offensive snaps on an offense that utilizes 11-personnel at one of the highest rates in the league. Tight end Logan Thomas’ snap rate came back down in Week 3 after increasing over the first two weeks of the season, which is more indicative of a return to a new role as opposed to anything to do with his injury. I’d expect him to maintain a 65-75% snap rate role moving forward.
How dallas Will Try To Win ::
By LexMiraglia10 >>
- Wentz’s hot fantasy start came to a screeching halt vs the strong PHI defense
- DAL has allowed an avg of 202.3 pass yds to Brady, Burrow, & Daniel Jones
- DAL has allowed a combined 2 TDs to 2 INT through 3 weeks, after allowing 24 TDs to 26 INT in 2021
- DAL held 2021 WAS starter Taylor Heinicke to 243:2:3 & 8 sacks in the two games combined
- Top WRs vs DAL: Evans (5:71:1) // Higgins (6:71:1) // Shepard (5:49)
- WAS WR tg: Samuel (11, 9, 10) // McLaurin (4, 8, 9) // Dotson (5, 5, 8)
- WR aDOT: Samuel (3.3) // McLaurin (15.3) // Dotson (14.9)
- Samuel also has 8 rush att on the season
- McLaurin finished with 3:40 vs DAL in 2021 across two games and 9 tg
- RBs vs DAL: Fournette: (127, 10) // Mixon (57, 26) // Saquon (81:1, 45)
- Rush att & tg: Gibson (14, 8 // 14, 4 // 12, 1) // McKissic (3, 3 // 3, 7 // 3, 9)
- Gibson has rushed for just 66 yds, 2 TDs on the 26 rush att last two weeks
- Gibson totaled 16:65 on the ground in the two matchups vs DAL in 2021
- Gibson’s only career games of 25+ DK pts (touches:yds):: 24:151:1 // 36:146 // 27:136:3
- Rush’s two starts since 2021: 325:2:1 // 235:1 // 215:1
- He’s thrown 40, 31, 31 att in his three starts
- QBs vs WAS: Lawrence (275:1:1) // Goff (256:4) // Hurts (340:3)
- DAL pts in rush starts: 20 // 20 // 23
- Targets in Rush starts: Cooper (13 / – / -) // Lamb (8 / 11 // 12) // Brown (2 / 5 / 7)
- Yards in Rush starts: Cooper (122:1) // Lamb (112 / 75 / 87:1) // Brown (91:1 / 54)
- WAS has already allowed 9+ tg to 5 WRs, with those WRs putting up: Kirk (117), Zay (65) // St Brown (116:2, 68) // Smith (169:1), Brown (85:1)
- Lamb career vs WAS: 0 // 21 // 61 // 66
- Cooper in those games: 80 // 112:1 // 51:1 // 85:1
- Gallup in those games: 0 // 41 // 60 // 53
- Gallup missed another game on MNF, but may play on a pitch count
- Tg in Rush starts: 7 / 4
- Schultz had 9 games of 6+ rec in 2021
- TEs vs WAS: JAC (28) // DET (51) // PHI (70:1)
- Schultz vs 2021 WAS: 1:4 // 8:82:1
- Rush att: Elliott (10 / 15 / 15) // Pollard (6 / 9 / 13)
- Elliott hasn’t scored 20+ DK pts since W10 in 2021 when he scored 2 TDs and a 2pt conversion
- Eliott hasn’t scored 25+ DK pts since W5 in 2021 when he scored 2 TDs on his 24 touches
- Pollard hasn’t scored 20+ DK pts since W2 in 2021 (16:140:1)
- RBs vs WAS: JRob (69:2), Etienne (65) // Swift (87:1), JWill (60) // Sanders (44)
- Pollard receiving: 2:14 / 4:55 / 0:0
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