Rams (

20) at
49ers (

22)

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Week 4 comes to an end as the Rams visit the 49ers in a game that opened at 51 (?!) but has dropped all the way down to 42.5. Despite having Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback, San Francisco is favored by 1.5 in this one. 

San Francisco

We’ll start with San Francisco. Jeff Wilson dominated the running game last week, playing 73% of the snaps and handling every RB carry except one (note that Deebo Samuel is not an RB – more on him shortly). In Week 2, Wilson played 49% of the snaps while Tyrion Davis-Price played 39% (and saw 14 opportunities), but with TDP out, it was the Jeff Wilson show. Jordan Mason only played 9% of the snaps and had one carry, while recent signee Marlon Mack did not see the field. There are a couple of ways I could see this go on Monday . . . Wilson has performed well so far this year, averaging 4.6 yards per carry and catching every single one of his targets, so he’s certainly earned his role. The 49ers clearly don’t think Jordan Mason is ready, and while his role could increase incrementally from week to week, I don’t see it jumping up to anything resembling an even split. That leaves Mack, a veteran running back who has historically been at least capable if not good. My guess is that Mack is the RB2 here, and while he didn’t play in Week 3 because he was just signed mid-week, we’ll see him appear in this game, at least for a bit. How much? I really have no idea. I think it’s Wilson’s backfield, but would not expect him to get 95% of the RB workload. Wilson’s price is fair for his role, and while the matchup is tough, he checks the other boxes we want for a running back: home favorite, some passing game work, reasonably talented, reasonable price. If fishing for MME plays I’d prefer Mack to Mason.

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

In the passing game, Deebo Samuel is the alpha of this offense in every possible way. Not only does he lead the team in targets, but he also has 17 rushing attempts on the year. If we pencil him in for his normal 5-6 carries in this game, that gives him a floor of 2 to 3 points just from rushing with upside for more, plus his passing game work. He’s second only to Cooper Kupp in his floor and ceiling here. Behind Deebo, Brandon Aiyuk seems to be shaking off a miserable 2021 season, as he has 19 targets, 10 catches, and a touchdown so far. $7,600 is a fair price, but . . . let’s talk about George Kittle. While Kittle spends a lot of snaps blocking, he’s also one of the best receiving tight ends in the NFL. The 49ers usually have to be pushed before Kittle really sees a lot of volume, so he fits best on rosters that are predicated on the Rams playing with a lead. Kittle is a volatile play, but it’s awfully rare to find a guy at $6,600 who has shown a 35+ point ceiling multiple times in his career. Once you get past the primary guys you’re drawing really thin. Jauan Jennings is on the field a fair bit but has 11 targets on the season, and then you get rotational guys like Ray-Ray McCloud, Ross Dwelley, and Charlie Woerner. The 49ers are a relatively low-volume passing attack but all three of the primary guys have tremendous YAC ability, so you’re generally hoping more to guess right on efficiency than volume with this offense. As such, while Deebo has the safest floor, Kittle is my overall favorite play in this receiving corps, because if you can’t count on volume, I’d rather bet on volatility at the cheapest possible price. Oh wait: don’t forget about Kyle Juszczyk, who’s good for a couple of touches per game, often near the goal line, and yet is perpetually priced around $1k in Showdowns.