Game Overview ::
By mjohnson86 >>
- This game sets up as a defensive battle between two teams who have lost key offensive pieces in recent weeks but have been rolling defensively.
- One of the lower total games on the slate but a close spread and explosive offensive players for both sides give this game some increased volatility.
- Both teams play at a slower pace and are two of the run-heaviest offenses in the league.
- There are some unknowns that make this game somewhat less predictable than we would usually expect at this point in the year. How will the Titans play without Derrick Henry if they don’t have a big lead? What will the Saints offense look like if they turn to Taysom Hill as their starting QB?
How new orleans Will Try To Win ::
The Saints are a team that looked like they found themselves after big wins in Seattle and the Bucs, but the loss of Jameis Winston is now forcing them to figure things out week by week. As the most conservative passing offense in the league (32nd in pass rate), and playing at the fifth slowest pace of play, this is not a team looking for track meets, and question marks at quarterback will certainly not increase the chances of that happening. The Saints are well-coached, however, and have played every game competitively with the exception of laying an egg in Carolina in Week 2 (right after their disruption and moving all over due to the hurricane in New Orleans). Outside of that game, the Saints are 5-2 with their losses coming in OT to the Giants and on an FG at the end of regulation last week.
While the Titans defense has performed great recently, it should also be noted that those great performances were against two of the more pass-centric offenses in the league and they will now be facing a Saints team that runs the ball at the highest rate in the league. Tennessee’s run defense is 24th in DVOA and notably struggled with dual-threat QBs in Kyler Murray and Josh Allen. While those players are on a much different level than Taysom Hill, the Saints probably have a much greater chance of offensive success by adding his element to the running game than they do taking their chances with Trevor Siemian. While Siemian is definitely a greater threat in the passing game, it is hard to imagine he will muster much success against a defense that made Patrick Mahomes and Matthew Stafford look terrible. With success through the air unlikely either way, the Saints may turn to Hill as a means of fully leveraging their running game and attacking the relative weakness of the Titans.
How tennessee Will Try To Win ::
Tennessee is such an interesting case study as a team with a run-first mentality who lost their bell cow running back, Derrick Henry, for the season and is facing the top run defense in the league. The Titans also have some injury issues on their offensive line, specifically star tackle Taylor Lewan, and are now faced with an interesting decision on how to approach this game. Their pass rate remained similar to their season averages in Week 9 (their first game without Henry), but that was mainly due to their defense forcing some early takeaways that led to a 21-3 first-half lead where they had no incentive to up the pace or pass rate.
Entering this game, it is hard to imagine the Titans will be able to move the ball on the ground. While “establishing the run” has been their identity for quite some time, this is clearly a spot where that philosophy will fail. It is worth noting how terrible this offense looked on Monday night against the Rams until the defense handed them a 14-3 lead. The Titans offense managed 28 total yards with one turnover in their first three possessions and finished with under 200 total yards of offense. If the Titans want to move the ball effectively, they will have no choice but to turn to the passing game at a higher than normal rate and utilize their stud wide receivers who both appear to be fully healthy for the first time this season. Tennessee will still lean into the run and short passing game (to backs and tight ends) as much as they can depending on the game flow, and they will stay in a shell if they are able to fall into another early lead.
Likeliest Game Flow ::
Everything about this game flow likely depends on the Saints ability to sustain some offensive success early. The Titans played it close to the vest with play calling that lacked creativity and didn’t get their best players involved early against the Rams, but their defense made the plays to get them a lead that allowed them to maintain that approach. They will likely approach this game similarly and bank on Trevor Siemian (or Taysom Hill) making mistakes to give them the upper hand. While this is not great for fantasy purposes, the Titans are one of the top teams in the league right now after dominating the Chiefs and Rams. Their defense is playing at an elite level making it unlikely they will go off script unless they have to.
If the Saints are able to score points and/or build a lead early, this would force the Titans to lean into their passing game, which will be much more efficient and explosive than their “three yards and a cloud of dust” running game. We should expect, with a high degree of confidence, that this will be a close game at the end. The Saints, as noted above, play well enough that they are always in it late, and the Titans are simply playing too well to let this game get away from them. What that likely means is that both teams will be able to stay in their comfort zone of slow pace and high run rate for the majority of the game. The status of the Saints QB situation and Alvin Kamara’s injury status should be closely monitored, as they will have a big impact on how this game plays out.
OWS FAM GOOGLE DRIVE
TOP PLAYS OF THE WEEKEND
SORTABLE GREEN ZONE TOUCHES
TEAM & PLAYER DK POINTS
DFS+ Interpretation ::
By LexMiraglia10 >>
- 2021 TEN totals: 51 // 63 // 41 // 51 // 56 // 65 // 30 // 65 // 44
- 2021 NOR totals: 41 // 34 // 41 // 48 // 55 // 23 // 53 // 52
- Only two games have a lower total than this game’s 44.5 (43 & 44)
- TEN offensive pts: 13 // 33 // 25 // 24 // 30 // 34 // 27 // 34 // 21
- NOR pts allowed: 3 // 26 // 13 // 27 // 22 // 10 // 27 // 27
- TEN at home with Vrabel: 18-10 (6-2, 4-4, 5-3, 3-1)
- NOR on road in that span: 23-5 (7-1, 7-1, 6-2, 3-1)
- NOR @ TEN in 2019: 38-28 Saints win
- Tannehill has passed for 300 yds in just 4 of his 26 starts since 2020
- Since 2020, the game scores of his 10 games of 20+ DK pts read: 46-25, 42-36, 35-41, 42-16, 41-38, 33-30, 30-24, 25-16, 27-3, 34-31
- That’s 8/10 games in which TEN scored 30+ pts, and 6/10 games in which the combined total finished over 60
- Just 3/21 games since NOR’s early BYE last year have finished over 60 pts, and two of them involved Mahomes & Brady on the other side
- NOR has dropped to 13th in def pass DVOA after two productive games from Brady & Ryan
- NOR has allowed 13 QB TDs to 11 INT
- NOR has faced the 8th most pass att/g
- Tannehill has five games under 30 pass att, and two of 40+ (40, 48)
- NOR has allowed the 3rd highest yds/att to WRs
- Nine WRs have 70+ yds vs NOR this season
- NOR has allowed 10 WR TDs, with 5 of them in just the last two games
- Tgs when both Brown & Julio played full: Brown (8, 9, 9, 9, 11) // Julio (6, 8, 5, 4, 4)
- Brown since returning from injury: 3:38 // 7:91 // 8:133:1 // 10:155:1 // 5:42
- Brown had just 1 rec for 34 yds on 2 tg vs NOR in 2019, but also ran in a 49 yd score
- Julio vs Lattimore Saints: 5:98 // 7:149 // 5:96 // 11:147 // 3:79 // 6:94
- Julio has more lost fumbles (4) than TDs (3) vs NOR in his career
- Julio had 6:128 vs SEA in W2; Julio’s other games (yds): 29, 47, 59, 38, 35
- First game without Henry::
- Rushing: Peterson (10:21:1) // McNichols (7:24) // Foreman (5:29)
- Receiving: Peterson (1:5) // McNichols (3:11)
- Peterson went for 11:36:1 vs NOR with DET last season
- Dion Lewis went for 15:68 vs NOR in 2019 when Henry missed
- McNichols has just four games over 5 rush att in his career (8, 9, 11, 7), and totaled 81 rush yds on those 35 att
- Peterson had 12 games over 5 rush att just last season, with 7 games between 11-22 rush att
- NOR ranks 1st in defensive rush DVOA, but has allowed the 10th highest yds/att to RBs through the air
- Lead RB rushing vs NOR: Jones (5:9) // CMC (24:72:1) // Harris (6:14) // Saquon (13:52:1) // Gibson (20:60:2) // Collins (16:35) // Fournette (8:26) // Davis (9:13)
- The best RBs rushing vs NOR thus far were CMC, Saquon, Gibson, and they still combined for just 184 yds on 57 att in 13 quarters
- RBs to score 20+ DK pts vs NOR since 2018: Saquon (22, 29.6) // Latavius (20.5) // Zeke (25.6) // CMC (34.3, 22.8, 26, 24.7) // Mostert (24.9) // Dalvin (28.0) // Sanders (32.6) // Fournette (21.7) // Gibson (21.2) // Patterson (22.6)
- That’s 14 RB scores of 20+ DK pts allowed in the last 61 games
- 13/14 scored a TD /// 6/14 scored 2 TDs /// 10/14 had 5+ rec /// 13/14 had 6+ DK rec pts
- Of the four without 5 rec, one had 82 yd TD, one caught a deep WR pass TD, one had 28 rush att, and all four scored 2 TDs
- CPatt had 21.6 of his 22.6 DK pts come through the air last week, and before his 64 yd rec on the final comeback drive, he had 12.2 total DK pts
- 2021: CMC, Saquon, CPatt combined for 16 rec, 51.5 DK rec pts vs NOR
- 2021: CMC, Saquon, & Gibson combined for 5 TDs vs NOR
- McNichols has just two games over 30 rec yds (74, 33)
Trevor Siemian / Taysom Hill:
- Taysom passing in starts: 233:0 // 78:0:1 // 232:2 // 291:2:1
- Taysom rushing in starts: 10:49:2 // 10:44:2 // 14:83 // 5:33
- Taysom had Michael Thomas (albeit hobbled) & Emmanuel Sanders for all four of his 2020 starts
- Those two received 54 of his 114 passes in those games
- NOR is currently trotting out Tre’Quan Smith, & undrafted Harris & Callaway as its top 3 WRs
- Siemian in two Saints games: 159:1 // 249:2
- 2021 QBs vs TEN: Kyler (289:4:1) // Russ (343:2) // Wentz (194:0) // Wilson (297:2:1) // Lawrence (273:1:1) // Allen (353:3:1) // KC (288:0:1) // Wentz (231:3:2) // Stafford (294:1:2)
- TEN has jumped all the way from 27th to 8th in def pass DVOA after facing KC, IND, LAR the past three weeks (8 INT in the last 6 games)
- Only ATL allowed more WR DK pts than TEN in 2020
- TEN has allowed the most WR DK pts in 2021
- Nine WRs vs TEN in 2021 have scored 20+ DK pts: Hopkins (26.3), Kirk (24) // Lockett (34.8), Swain (21) // Davis (24.1) // Diggs (23.9), Beasley (21.8) // Pittman (30.6) // Kupp (20.5)
- Callaway is the only NOR WR with 20+ DK pts this season, and it required a Hail Mary TD
- Kamara’s rush att: 20, 8, 24, 26, 16, 20, 19, 13
- Kamara’s targets: 4, 6, 4, 0, 8, 11, 4, 7
- Kamara’s total touches: 24 // 14 // 28 // 26 // 24 // 31 // 23 // 20
- Ingram back in NOR: (6 att, 2 tg), (9, 5)
- The CAR blowout loss is the only game in which Kamara has fewer touches than the two games with Ingram
- RB touches w/ Taysom in 2020::
- AK: (13 att, 1 tg) // (11, 2) // (15, 3) // (11, 10)
- Lat: (12 att, 2 tg) // (19, 1) // (5, 2) // (4, 1)
- AK has just 2 TD on 7 rush att inside-5 this year, and 13 att inside-10
- AK converted 12 att into 9 TDs inside-5 in 2020
- Taysom scored 3 rush TDs in first four games, and scored 8 rush TDs in 2020 (4 as starter)
- NOR scored 8 rush TDs in Taysom’s 4 starts: (4 Taysom, 2 AK, 2 Murray)
- TEN ranks 24th in def rushing DVOA
- RB total yds vs TEN: Edmonds (106), Conner (53) // Carson (31) // Taylor (72), Hines (79) // Carter (34), Coleman (31) // Robinson (147) // Singletary (43), Moss (39) // Williams (50) // Taylor (122) // Hendy (58)
- TEN has allowed the 9th lowest success rate on RB tg
- Edmonds, Hines, Taylor all surpassed 40 rec yds vs TEN
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