Kickoff Sunday, Nov 14th 4:25pm Eastern

Eagles (
22.25) at
Broncos (
22.25)

Over/Under 44.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Eagles Run D
19th DVOA/21st Yards allowed per carry
Broncos Run O
14th DVOA/18th Yards per carry
Eagles Pass D
28th DVOA/13th Yards allowed per pass
Broncos Pass O
18th DVOA/25th Yards per pass
Broncos Run D
30th DVOA/32nd Yards allowed per carry
Eagles Run O
6th DVOA/12th Yards per carry
Broncos Pass D
26th DVOA/20th Yards allowed per pass
Eagles Pass O
7th DVOA/11th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By papy324 >>
  • Both coaches want to call a run-oriented game plan.
  • Both backfields are timeshares.
  • The Broncos play slowly in all circumstances.
  • There isn’t a lot to love from a DFS standpoint in this one.

How philadelphia Will Try To Win ::

The 3-6 Eagles come into Week 10 having seen their faint playoff hopes all but end after losing a competitive game against a good Chargers team. Nick Sirianni is building an Eagles squad that feels a year or two away from being good. They have a lot of pieces but they are weak on defense (24th in DVOA overall) and need Jalen Hurts to take another step forward. The Eagles have been playing fast (2nd in situational neutral pace) but slowing way down (30th in place when winning) if they’re ahead. The Eagles massive gap in pace means their games have a very different feel depending on game flow. 

The Broncos defense has been attackable on the ground (23rd in DVOA), middling through the air (15th in DVOA), and just traded away Von Miller. The Eagles have miraculously held Jalen Hurts to 14/17 attempts in their last two games. At first, it looked like it was because of game flow but it now looks like it was by design. Sirianni seems to believe the best way to win games with Hurts under center is to try and play as Harbaugh did in Lamar Jackson’s early years. That might be his best shot this season but Hurts will have to improve as a passer (much as Jackson did) if this team is going to take the next step. Expect the Eagles to come out playing at warp speed, while attacking with a creative running game where Hurts is essentially a hybrid RB/QB. The Eagles will keep their foot on the gas unless they take a lead, at which point they’ll be happy to fall on the ball.

How denver Will Try To Win ::

The 5-4 Broncos are coming off two straight wins against the NFC East, having knocked off the Football Team and Cowboys. The AFC West is suddenly a very competitive division, with all four teams sitting at five wins. This feels like a game the Broncos must win — at home against a 3-6 team — if they want to be the ones who emerge from the pack. The Broncos play slow (31st situational neutral pace), stay slow when winning (29th in pace when ahead), and barely speed up when losing (24th in pace when trailing). The Broncos move slow no matter what is happening in the game, and play like a team that is desperately trying to hide their QB.  Their coaching staff hasn’t seemed to figure out that Bridgewater is more average than bad. This isn’t likely to be the week the light bulb turns on.

The Eagles are attackable through the air (21st in DVOA), as well as on the ground (20th in DVOA), and the Broncos weren’t going to be tilted away from how “they play” anyway. Bridgewater was held under 30 attempts in both Broncos wins the past two weeks. Expect the same approach in this one, as the Broncos coaching staff will be happy to “hide” Bridgewater while trying to win with the ground game and defense.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

This game has a lowish 45 point total, mostly because of how the Broncos want to play. The Broncos will try to suck the air out of this game, and the Eagles will be happy to slow it down if they are ahead, creating a lot of paths to a low-scoring contest. Neither team wants to throw, and there is a realistic chance both teams’ QBs finish below 25 attempts. The one hope for this game showing signs of life is that both defenses are vulnerable, and both offenses have enough weapons to take advantage.  The most likely game flow here is both sides run the ball effectively, creating long, time-consuming drives. If a few of those drives end in FGs instead of TDs, this game has paths to go way under.

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DFS+ Interpretation ::

By Dwprix >>

Overview:

  • Fourth lowest total (45) w/ DEN favored by 2.5
  • After starting the season winning three in a row, then losing four in a row, DEN has won two straight
  • Last week DEN was a ten point road dog vs DAL, won by 14, & were up 30-0 in the 4th qtr
  • They posted their first 30 point game
  • DAL was ranked third in ppg (31.1) // DEN held them to 16
  • DEN allows 17.0 ppg (2nd) // PHI avgs 25.2 ppg (11th)
  • PHI allows 24.2 ppg (20th) // DEN avgs 20.8 (22nd)
  • The winner of this matchup the last two games has scored 50+: 2017-DEN:23 @ PHI:51 // 2013-PHI:20 @ DEN-52
  • PHI is 4-5 ATS // DEN is 5-4 ATS

Teddy Bridgewater:

  • Teddy DK pts as home fav: NYJ-11.8 // BAL-6.8 // LV-25.26 // WAS-12.62
  • Bridgewater’s paid off 4x salary four times this season
  • DK pts: 21.9 (4.13x) // 12.6 // 14.8 // 25.3 (4.43x) // 19.6 // 6.8 // 11.8 // 24.2 (4.48x) // 20.5 (4.27x)
  • He’s had five games w/ 2+ pass TDs & two with 300+ yds
  • Pass Atts: 28 // 33 // 49 // 38 // 16 // 25 // 34 // 36
  • PHI DK pts vs QBs at or under $6k: Jared Goff-8.88 // Derek Carr-24.54 // Sam Darnold-9.08 // Jimmy Garoppolo-19.56 // Matt Ryan-7.36
  • DEN takes 3.2 sacks/g (T-2nd most)
  • PHI gets 1.9 sacks/g (T-5th least)
  • PHI allows 19.6 DK pts to QBs (12th fewest)

DEN WRs:

  • Tgts since Jerry Jeudy’s return: Jeudy-12 // Albert O. + Noah Fant-9 // Tim Patrick-8 // Cortland Sutton-6
  • Notable WR scores vs PHI: Keenan Allen-25.40 // Antonio Brown-24.30 // Tyreek Hill-50.60 // Deebo Samuel-16.10
  • Sutton (1,031) trails only Tyreek Hill (1,093) in air yds
  • Patrick leads the team in yds/rec (15.0)
  • Patrick & Sutton are tied with seven rec over 20 yds
  • PHI allows 30.0 DK pts/g to WRs (4th least)

Noah Fant: 

  • Fant should be back after missing last week w/ COVID
  • PHI vs TEs: TJ Hockenson-18.90 // Foster Moreau-18.00 // OJ Howard-16.90 // Dalton Schultz-26.00 
  • PHI allows the most DK pts to TEs (19.6/g)
  • Fant hasn’t been less than $4.3k since week two ($4.2k)
  • In both games he’s seen 10+ tgts, he also scored
  • Fant to reach DK value: 3x-12.9 // 4x-17.2 // 5x-21.5
  • In 38 career games, Fant has broke 20 DK pts four times
  • The most recent was Week 4 vs LV who currently gives up the seven most DK pts to TEs

DEN RBs:

  • PFF has Javonte Williams leading the NFL in forced missed tackle rate (37%, 35 missed)
  • Williams handled 17 carries for 111 yds (season high) but failed to score (14.1 DK pts) last week
  • Melvin Gordon has only broke 100 yds once back in WK 1
  • Both Gordon (21 atts) & Williams (17 atts) had season high rush atts w/ DEN leading last week
  • Gordon has 27 RZ opportunities // Williams has 17
  • RB DK pts vs PHI weeks: Austin Ekeler-11.20 // Lions RBs (Swift injured, three RBs)-30.80 // Kenyon Drake + Josh Jacobs-32.70 // Leonard Fournette-30.70 // Chuba Hubbard-21.40 // Clyde Edwards-Helaire-22.40 // Ezekiel Elliott-26.60 // no SF RB w/ 10+ pts // Mike Davis + Cordarrelle Paterson-18.9
  • PHI allows the 4th most DK pts/g to RBs (29.3)

Jalen Hurts:

  • Hurts has only broke 200 yds passing one time in his last five games
  • Pass yds: 162 // 103 // 236 // 115 // 198 // 387 // 326 // 190 // 264
  • He’s only attempted 31 passes in his last two games
  • Pass attps: 17 // 14 // 34 // 26 // 37 // 48 // 39 // 23 // 35
  • He went the first seven games scoring 20+ DK pts, failing to do so in last two
  • DK pts: 16.7 // 11.2 // 24.5 // 26.0 // 23.9 // 31.2 // 25.5 // 21.8 // 28.8
  • The only time he hasn’t started & had 20 DK pts in his career were the last two games & when he was benched vs WAS last season
  • Hurts at $6.5k is the cheapest he’s been since Week 2
  • Rushing avgs: 9.22 atts/g: // 54.89 yds/g // .56 TDs/g
  • Rushing QBs vs DEN: Lamar Jackson-7:28 // Daniel Jones-6:27:1 TD
  • QBs vs DEN: Dak Prescott-19.88 // Taylor Heinicke-13.80 // Case Keenum-12.66 // Derek Carr-25.26 // Ben Roethlisberger-17.02 // Lamar Jackson-22.44 // Zack Wilson-4.60 // Trevor Lawrence-8.82 // Daniel Jones-22.38
  • Only Buffalo (12.6) allows fewer DK pts/g to QBs than DEN (16.2)

PHI WRs:

  • Despite last weeks low pass volume, Devonta Smith was able to score 25.6 DK pts on five receptions
  • That was his second time topping 25+ DK pts and 100+ rec yds
  • PHI 100+ yd receivers: WK 9-Smith 5:116:1 TD // WK 4-Smith-7:122 // WK 2-Quez Watkins 2:117 
  • WRs vs DEN w/ 100+ yds: WK 5-Chase Claypool-5:130:1 TD // WK 1-Sterling Shepard-7:113:1 TD
  • DEN allows 34.9 DK pts to WRs (13th most)

Dallas Goedert:

  • Goedert tgts last three (return from COVID & Ertz traded): 5 // 7 // 6 
  • He has two TDs on the season & zero in his last four
  • His high rec yds (72) came on seven tgts WK 8 vs DET (PHI put up 44 pts)
  • DEN allows the second least DK pts to TEs (8.0)

PHI RBs:

  • Jordan Howard has three TDs in two games since being activated from the practice squad
  • Rush share last two (w/ Howard, w/o Miles Sanders): Howard-35% // Boston Scott-27% // Kenneth Gainwell-18% // (Hurts-21%)
  • Team snap share last two: Scott-44% // Howard-32% // Gainwell-25%
  • Howard has 14 RZ rush atts & leads the team in just two games
  • PHI RZ rush atts: Howard-14 // Hurts-13 // Sanders (out)-11 // Scott-8 // Gainwell-8
  • DEN allows 21.9 DK pts/g to RBs (9th fewest)