Browns (

21) at
Patriots (

23.5)

Game Overview ::

By mjohnson86 >>

• Cleveland has running back issues due to COVID, but that is highly unlikely to alter their plan of attack.
• New England also has running back issues, and regardless of how that plays out, they are likely to lean towards the pass due to Cleveland’s top 5 run defense.
• Baker Mayfield continues to play his best football without Odell Beckham, Jr.
• New England is on a three-game win streak during which they have allowed only 13.7 points per game.
• Cleveland’s defense really struggled early in the season but has held three straight opponents under 20 points.

How Cleveland Will Try To Win ::

Cleveland is a team with an identity. They locked up two of their stud offensive linemen to long-term extensions in the last week as they commit to this smashmouth identity for the long-term. The Browns currently sport the #1 rushing attack in the league, so it is safe to say their investment is paying off. New England’s defense traditionally tries to be stronger against the pass than the run because they understand that the analytics say that passing is almost always the optimal option for an offense — so they try to encourage their opponents to lean run-heavy. Where they encounter problems is when they face teams who prefer to run and can do it very efficiently. To sum up this paragraph, the design of the Browns offense is the worst-case scenario of an opponent for the Patriots.

The Browns are still without Kareem Hunt, and Nick Chubb’s status is very much up in the air after testing positive for COVID on Tuesday. However, D’Ernest Johnson has more than proven himself when given opportunities and has already had a huge game when given a full workload against the Broncos in Week 8. Baker Mayfield is a great distributor of the ball and has been most effective without Odell Beckham, Jr. on the field — something that makes sense as he makes the right reads and doesn’t feel the need to acquiesce to a specific player to feed them targets. The Browns have a capable, though not elite, stable of receivers and tight ends that Baker does a nice job of spreading the ball around to. The Browns mix up personnel and formations, making it difficult for opponents to plan for and keeping the defense off-balance. Cleveland will lean into their running game to set up play-action passes in the intermediate area as well as some screens and misdirections. It is unlikely that the Browns have any one player with over eight targets and also likely that they have a few players with at least three targets. Cleveland has a better defense, running game, and game manager than New England and will attempt to rely on those three advantages to lead them to victory.

How New England Will Try To Win ::

The Patriots have had their most success in games where they have had success running the ball. If we eliminate their Week 1 loss to the Dolphins (Mac Jones’ debut where the offense was struggling to find itself), the Patriots have scored 24+ points in six of their other eight games. The two games where New England really struggled to move the ball and put up points were against the Bucs and the Saints — a pair of top-5 ranked run defenses. From a macro perspective, this makes a lot of sense. The Patriots have always tried to attack their opponent’s weaknesses and matchups against elite run defenses would naturally force more onto Mac Jones’ plate in the game plan, a tall task considering his receiving corps is very limited from a talent perspective. This is another matchup that fits that description as Cleveland is currently 5th in run defense DVOA. With the Patriots top running backs both recovering from concussions, they could (and likely will) end up throwing the ball at a rate much higher than their season averages.

Likeliest Game flow ::

This game is likely to be very physical and low-scoring. The Browns prefer to build everything they do around their running game and the Patriots defense has been very beatable for offenses besides the Jets and a team quarterbacked by Sam Darnold. The Browns play at the 29th fastest situation-neutral pace and run the ball at the 3rd highest rate in the league. They will be able to maintain that approach in this spot against the Patriots. 

While the Patriots are likely to throw the ball more in this difficult matchup for their running game and due to injury concerns, that may be tougher for them than it initially appears. While the Browns passing defense has struggled at times this year, they have been extremely matchup sensitive with most of their mishaps coming against the Chiefs, Chargers, and Cardinals — teams that have a ton of talent in their receiving corps. The Patriots lack high-end talent on the perimeter making it unlikely they are able to make big plays against a defense that quietly ranks 3rd in coverage grade and 4th in pass-rush grade by PFF. While some “metrics” make it look like this would be a good spot for the New England passing game, the “matchups” and context paints a much darker picture. 

The overall game flow likely looks something like this: 

• Cleveland is able to move the ball while playing slowly and draining the clock, though they may have trouble finishing drives off with touchdowns due to their personnel and New England’s “bend but don’t break” defensive philosophy.
• New England will struggle to move the ball on the ground and through the air but is likely to “find a way” to score points, though it is unlikely to happen in a fantasy-friendly way.
• Neither team is likely to have enough offensive success to force the other team to become significantly more aggressive.
• Both defenses are good enough, and both offenses are low enough on talent, that it is very possible for one or both offenses to put up a very low point total.

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