Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- Tampa Bay leads the league in situation-neutral pass rate at 67% (as we all know by now).
- Washington allows the most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks.
- Bucs are likely to be down Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski, while Chris Godwin has yet to practice this week (which is notable with the team coming off their bye).
- Washington has pertinent injury news of their own to follow, as all of Dyami Brown, Cam Sims, and Curtis Samuel remain questionable on Thursday.
How tampa bay Will Try To Win ::
The Buccaneers lead the league in situation-neutral pass rate at 67%, lead the league in pass attempts per game at 43.8, rank fifth in total offensive plays per game at 67.6 (this stat considers multiple inputs, such as offensive efficiency, pace of play, and defensive efficiency), and lead the league in points scored per game at 32.5. Their opponent, the Washington Football Team, presents a pass-funnel matchup, ranking 10th in DVOA against the run but 31st against the pass. It should be fairly clear how the Bucs are likeliest to attack here, although we must consider the banged-up status of their pass-catchers (Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski are trending towards another missed game, while Chris Godwin has yet to practice coming off their bye and in danger of an absence) when dissecting this side of the matchup. There are three likely outcomes with respect to pass-catcher usage that I see here:
- We see the Bucs increase their low 12-personnel usage (above-average 71% 11-personnel usage on the season) if Chris Godwin also misses leaving Mike Evans, Tyler Johnson, Cameron Brate, and OJ Howard as the primary pass-catchers
- We see Chris Godwin miss but Scottie Miller returns leaving Mike Evans, Tyler Johnson, Cameron Brate, and Scottie Miller as the primary pass-catchers
- We see Chris Godwin return to practice on Friday and play leaving Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Tyler Johnson, and Cameron Brate as the primary pass-catchers.
Keep an eye on the statuses of Chris Godwin and Scottie Miller for the rest of the week. Another hint to the possible status of Godwin would be the activation of Scottie Miller, which would lead me to believe Godwin is unlikely to play.
To put the above thought process in another way, I would say with a high level of confidence that we don’t see a substantial increase to the low situation-neutral rush rates from the Bucs here, and instead see the same pass-heavy approach here (Tom Brady has under 40 pass attempts in only two games this year, each of which Brady finished with 36 pass attempts in Bucs blowout wins). Let’s take a look at the game logs for Leonard Fournette, which should help to hammer this idea home. Only twice this season has Leonard Fournette reached 20 rush attempts, and both of those games came against the two most run-funnel defenses the Bucs have played this season (Philadelphia and New England). In games against neutral-to-pass-funnel defenses (NO, CHI, MIA, LAR, ATL, and DAL), we’ve seen the same pass-heavy approach. Tampa Bay’s situation-neutral pass rates against the Eagles and Patriots sat at 59%. Their situation-neutral pass rates against all other opponents sit at 68%. We spoke to the pass-funnel nature of this Washington defense above, leading me to the conclusion that we see Brady once again throw the football 40+ times here, regardless of who his pass-catchers end up being. Further justification comes through Washington’s eighth-ranked adjusted line yards allowed on defense (3.87). With all of that considered, the likeliest scenario for me leads to 12-15 carries and the standard four to seven targets for Leonard Fournette in a difficult on-paper rushing matchup.
We know the pure matchup for the pass game is an extreme positive for the Bucs this week, but we have a good deal of unknowns surrounding who those pass-catchers will be. As opposed to going over what we already did above again, keep those thoughts in mind as we consider the pass-catchers from this offense. If Chris Godwin plays, he and Mike Evans should make up the vast majority of the targets and production from the Bucs this week. Should Godwin miss, we now have to consider the status of Scottie Miller before we single out pass-catchers, as his presence indicates a likely 11-personnel-heavy approach, dampening the viability of both Cameron Brate and OJ Howard. Keep an eye on the statuses of Antonio Brown (likely to miss), Rob Gronkowski (likely to miss), Chris Godwin (status unknown), and Scottie Miller (status unknown – coming off the IR).
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How washington Will Try To Win ::
The 2-6 Football Team is coming off a string of four losses against difficult opponents (NO, KC, GB, DEN). During that stretch, quarterback Taylor Heinicke has attempted between 37 and 41 passes in each game, giving us a good idea of how Washington is likeliest to attack against an extreme pass-funnel defense. Washington’s 10th-ranked situation-neutral pace of play (29.90) jumps over three seconds to 26.32 in the second half this season, which indicates a team that has both been playing from behind a ton this season and is remaining aggressive deep into those games, trying to fight back into contention. This is good news for this game environment!
Jaret Patterson has entered the picture for this backfield, parlaying a 23% snap rate in Week 8 into 11 rush attempts for 46 yards and zero catches on one target. Those snaps came at the detriment to starter Antonio Gibson (just a 33% snap rate in Week 8), who continues to play through a shin fracture. JD McKissic has seen a 40% or greater snap rate in every game since Week 1, peaking at 64% in Week 7. During that stretch of three truly difficult matchups, McKissic has turned snap rates of 61%, 64%, and 46% into target counts of 10, six, and eight. The matchup is the most difficult that the Football Team has seen all year on the ground, against an extreme pass-funnel Bucs defense. It yields a below-average 4.06 net-adjusted line yards metric, and carries are likely to be split amongst Gibson and Patterson.
The pass game brings a good deal of uncertainty, primarily surrounding the injuries on hand. All of Curtis Samuel, Dyami Brown, and Cam Sims should be viewed as questionable heading into the final practice session of the week, with Samuel appearing likeliest to miss here. What we do know is that the Washington offense operates heavily from 11-personnel (second highest 11-personnel rate in the league). We know the Bucs have surrendered more than the league average fantasy points to opposing wide receivers and tight ends, but they also have filtered 67 targets to opposing backfields as well. Outside of McLaurin, McKissic, and tight end Ricky Seals-Jones, the targets should be rather spread out.
Likeliest Game Flow ::
We’re likeliest to see the Bucs control the pace, tempo, and flow of this game from start to finish, regardless of the statuses of their pass-catchers. Tom Brady and Bruce Arians are simply too good at scheming and managing this offense before and during the game. The more important aspect to understand here is that we have two coaching staffs that remain aggressive deep into games, and that are trying to win football games as opposed to “playing not to lose.” This presents us with the optimal game environment for DFS purposes, as we’re not reliant on game flow to dictate how each team is likeliest to attack. Furthering that idea is the fact that we have two defenses that present pass-funnel tendencies, increasing the likely pass volume from the game as a whole. Again, another boost to the game environment.
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TEAM & PLAYER DK POINTS
DFS+ Interpretation ::
By LexMiraglia10 >>
- TB beat WAS 31-23 in the Wildcard last year when WAS D was still perceived as strong
- WAS ranks 30th in defensive DVOA through nine weeks (31st in passing)
- Brady’s only 300 yd game of the postseason came vs WAS
- Heinicke has only passed for more yds (306) in a game once, and he’s only totaled more overall yds (352) in a game once
- WAS & TB have allowed the most (289) & 13th most (258) pass yds/g
- TB has scored 30+ pts in 14/23 games since adding AB
- Brady’s pass yds: 379 // 276 // 432 // 269 // 411 // 297 // 211 // 375
- WAS has faced the 7th most pass att/g at 37.9 per game
- Brady’s pass att: 50 // 36 // 55 // 43 // 41 // 42 // 36 // 36 // 40
- WAS has allowed 20 TDs to 4 INT
- Brady has 25 TDs to 5 INT
- WAS has forced the 10th highest rate of pressure (PFR), but allowed by far the most completed air yds (despite already having Bye week)
- TB tg without AB: Godwin (7, 11, 12) // Evans (10, 10, 4) // Johnson (6, 2, 6) // Brate (5, 4, 4)
- WAS has allowed the highest success rate to WRs
- WAS has allowed the 2nd most WR DK pts/g, & 3rd most WR yds/g
- WAS has allowed 11 WR TDs in 8 games
- WRs with 10+ tg vs WAS: Allen (100), Williams (82:1) // Shepard (94) // Beasley (98), Diggs (62) // Ridley (80) // Hill (76:1)
- Evans already has three games of multiple TDs
- No AB: Evans (106 // 76:3 // 48:1) // Godwin (74:1 // 111:1 // 140:1)
- Gronk finished with 0:0 vs NOR in his return, but has also now had another week to get healthier
- Gronk pre-injury: 8:90:2 // 4:39:2 // 4:55
- Five TEs finished with 50+ yds vs WAS
- Fournette rush att: 9 // 11 // 4 // 20 // 12 // 22 // 15 // 8
- Fournette targets: 7 // 4 // 3 // 5 // 5 // 6 // 4 // 5
- Fournette tot touches: 16 // 15 // 7 // 25 // 17 // 28 // 19 // 13
- Fournette rush yds: 32 // 52 // 8 // 92 // 67 // 81 // 81 // 26
- Fournette rec yds: 27 // 24 // 26 // 47 // 43 // 46 // 9 // 17
- Fournette tot yds: 59 // 76 // 34 // 139 // 110 // 127 // 90 // 43
- Top RB yds vs WAS: Ekeler (57:1) // Saquon (69) // Moss (91:1) // CPatt (116:3) // AK (122:2) // Williams (89:2) // Jones (39) // Gordon (62:2)
- WAS ranks 10th in def rush DVOA & allowed the 3rd lowest success rate to RBs
- WAS has allowed 12 RB TDs (5 rush, 7 rec), which is the 3rd most
- Fournette has 4 TDs on the season (Gio has 3, RoJo has 1)
- TB has faced the 3rd most pass att/g (40.2)
- Heinicke has thrown 37 pass att/g in his seven starts
- QB pass yds vs TB: 403 // 300 // 343 // 275 // 275 // 115 // 184 // 215
- Heinicke has averaged 258 yds in his seven starts
- TB has forced 10 INT in eight games
- Heinicke has thrown 9 INT
- QB rushing vs TB: Dak (4:13) // Hurts (10:44:2) // Fields (8:38) // Winston (4:40)
- Heinicke has three game of 40+ rush yds (43, 40, 95), and rushed for 46 yds vs TB in the matchup last year
- McLaurin has 76 tg (Humphries with 29 is the next closest of WAS WRs)
- McLaurin with 10+ tg: 11:107:1 // 6:123:2 // 4:46 // 7:122:1
- McLaurin with sub-10 tg: 4:62 // 4:62 // 4:28 // 3:23
- WRs with 10+ tg vs TB: Cooper (139:2), Lamb (104:1) // Ridley (63:1) // Kupp (96:2) // Meyers (70)
- The only WRs over just 5 tg in the last four games vs TB: Waddle (2:31, 6tg) // Harris (3:35, 7tg)
- Djax (120:1) & Preston Williams (60) are the only WRs with 60+ yds vs TB on less than 10 tg
- McLaurin has five games of 10.2 DK pts or less (10.2, 10.2, 8.6, 6.8, 6.5)
- McLaurin has three games of 28+ DK pts (30.7, 33.3, 28.2)
Ricky Seals-Jones / Logan Thomas:
- Eight TEs have 30+ yds vs TB (five of 40+)
- RSJ as starter: 5:41 // 4:58:1 // 6:51 // 2:12
- Thomas pre-injury: 3:30:1 // 7:45 // 4:42:1
- TB has allowed the 10th highest success rate to TEs
- No team allowed fewer rush yds than TB in 2020, with the next closest team allowing nearly 200 yds more; 2019 TB allowed the fewest by 100+ yds as well
- In 20 games, Kamara, CMC, & Cook were the only RBs to break 20 DK pts vs TB, and AK & CMC both needed 2 TDs to get there
- Gurley & AK were the only two RBs to break 20 DK pts in 2019 vs TB, and they combined for 17 rec in those 2 games
- Through eight 2021 games, TB has allowed three 20+ DK pt scores to RBs, with Patterson, Gaskin, & Herbert combining for 20 rec & 4 TDs in those games
- Patterson (7:11:1, 5:58:1) // Gaskin (5:25, 10:74:2) // Herbert (18:100, 5:33)
- TB allowed the most RB rec in 2020; 7.3 rec/g allowed so far in 2021
- McKissic receiving: 0:0 // 5:83 // 2:15 // 5:44:1 // 1:8 // 8:65 // 4:34 // 8:83
- McKissic has four scores of 3x his W10 salary (20.3, 16.9, 19, 17.3)
- With Gibson struggling with his shin injury, Jarrett Patterson got a season-high 11 rush att last game
- Gibson rush yds since his 90 in W1: 69, 31, 63, 60, 44, 51, 34
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