Kickoff Sunday, Nov 14th 4:05pm Eastern

Panthers (
17.25) at
Cards (
24.25)

Over/Under 41.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Panthers Run D
32nd DVOA/13th Yards allowed per carry
Cardinals Run O
8th DVOA/2nd Yards per carry
Panthers Pass D
20th DVOA/11th Yards allowed per pass
Cardinals Pass O
25th DVOA/29th Yards per pass
Cardinals Run D
31st DVOA/29th Yards allowed per carry
Panthers Run O
25th DVOA/23rd Yards per carry
Cardinals Pass D
31st DVOA/21st Yards allowed per pass
Panthers Pass O
32nd DVOA/32nd Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By papy324 >>
  • This game is likely to have a blowout game flow.
  • The entire Panthers offense will be hampered by PJ Walker.
  • CMC’s playing time is uncertain.
  • The Cardinals passing game is spread out, even if Deandre Hopkins sits.
  • James Conner could end up chalk, for good reason.
  • The Cardinals defense is a strong play if you can afford them.

How carolina Will Try To Win ::

The Panthers come into Week 10 having posted a below-average 4-5 record through the first nine weeks of the season. Their record feels even worse because the Panthers started in a dominant 3-0 fashion, having benefited from playing the Jets and Texans in two of their first three games. Since then, they’ve gone 1-5, with their lone win coming against the Falcons, who, well, play Falcons football. Making matters worse, the Panthers just lost Sam Darnold and are fresh off a 24-6 manhandling at the hands of the Patriots.

Matt Rhule is in a tough spot. His team has been searching for an identity ever since losing their best player (Christian McCafferty). Rhule wants to be able to ride CMC to victory, but as Rhule pointed out during one of his press conferences last week, CMC has barely played the past two seasons. Rhule is rightly afraid to give CMC his former workload and lose him again for an extended period. The Panthers offense has been so centered on CMC, they almost need to figure out how they want to play again now that he is back, and figure out a way to do that while keeping him healthy. That’s a lot of moving parts to put together on the fly.  This week they draw an Arizona team that is stifling against the pass (2nd in DVOA) and the run (7th in DVOA). The Cards defense has been legitimately good, and since they don’t present a clear path of least resistance, expect Rhule to continue to “feel out,” how he wants to use CMC while responding to game flow.

How arizona Will Try To Win ::

The 8-1 Cardinals come into this game in impressive form. Last week, led by Colt McCoy, and without their two primary WRs, and having to deal with Chase Edmonds going down on the first play, the Cards still managed to adapt their offense enough to score 31 points against a non-pushover 49ers defense. That feat is made more impressive by the fact that the game was in San Francisco. What type of a thrashing would the 49ers have received if the Cards had any of their starting weapons? 

The Cards play fast (8th situational neutral pace) but slow down when winning (17th in pace when ahead). Kliff Kingsbury is coming into his own as a head coach and has molded this offense into an efficient machine, capable of taking a lead and securing the win. Early reports indicate that Kyler Murray is expected to play, and if that’s the case we can expect the Cards offense to look more normal than it did last week. The Panthers defense has been strong against the pass (4th in DVOA) but much more susceptible on the ground (19th in DOVA), creating a run funnel defense. Kingsbury’s offense has been adaptable this year, and the matchup should tilt them towards the ground. Throw in the health concerns of the Cards pass-catching RB/QB/WRs, and we start to see a clear case for trying to win on the ground. Expect Kingsbury to be happy to win running the ball, and with defense, but being willing to open things up if the game requires.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

This game has a lowish total of 44.5. The reason is that only one team is expected to do much scoring. The double-digit spread means that Vegas expects this one to be a blowout, and there is every reason to believe the prognosticators are correct. The 8-1 Cards just looked great against a reasonable team, playing what amounted to their second-string skill players. Now they are at home, against a weaker opponent, with their franchise QB back under center. The most likely game flow in this one is the Cards pull away easily, with a blowout being entirely possible.

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DFS+ Interpretation ::

By LexMiraglia10 >>

Overview:

  • CAR has lost 5 of 6 games
  • ARI’s only loss came down to an endzone INT on the final drive
  • ARI blew out SF without Kyler, Hopkins, Green, Edmonds, Hudson, Watt

Kyler Murray:

  • Sounds optimistic about playing
  • After starting the season hot (34.6 & 38.1 DK pts), Kyler has since scored (22.5, 22.6, 13.7, 25.8, 22.4, 11.1)
  • CAR has allowed the 6th fewest QB DK pts/g (17.5)
  • CAR has allowed the 3rd fewest pass att/g (30.3)
  • Kyler has thrown between 28-36 passes in every game in 2021
  • Only BUF has allowed fewer QB pass yds/g than CAR
  • CAR has held six QBs under 200 pass yds
  • Kyler has thrown for the 6th most pass yds/g (284.5)
  • CAR has allowed 16 QB TDs to 7 INT
  • Kyler has scored 20 TDs to 7 INT
  • QB rushing vs CAR: Winston (3:19:1) // Dak (4:35) // Hurts (9:30:2) // D Jones (8:28)
  • Kyler has just two games of 30+ rush yds, and none since W4 (38 total over last four games)
  • Kyler vs CAR in 2020: 24/31 for 133:3; 6 rush att for 78 yds 
  • CAR held him to 4.3 yds per pass att last year, but he finished with 25.12 DK pts thanks to the 7.8 rushing pts

ARI WRs:

  • Hopkins score by salary multiplier in 2021: 3.4 // 1.9 // 0.6 // 1.4 // 2.7 // 2.6 // 2.4 // 1.3
  • Thanks to 7 TDs, Hopkins has scored 15+ DK pts in 5/8 games, but he hasn’t topped 21 DK pts since his 2-TD game in W1
  • Hopkins targets by week: 8 // 4 // 6 // 7 // 9 // 4 // 9 // 2
  • Kirk has 3x his W10 salary just three times, and 4x just once
  • Green has 4x twice, but no scores over 20 DK pts
  • Every WR since 2020 to reach 100 yds vs CAR has needed 7+ rec to get there (Evans, Keenan, Ridley, Julio, Tyreek, Cooks, Thielen)
  • Hopkins has one game this season of 7 rec, and he turned them into just 53 yds

James Conner:

  • Rush att: Edmonds (12, 8, 11, 12, 6, 4, 15, 1) // Conner (16, 8, 11, 18, 10, 16, 10, 21)
  • Conner has 10, 16, & 21 rush att in the games Edmonds has either played through or left with an injury
  • Conner received half (5) of his targets on the season (10) last week with Edmonds leaving early
  • Edmonds had 37 tg in the first eight games
  • Total touches by game::
  • Edmonds: 16 // 16 // 16 // 17 // 10 // 8 // 18 // 1
  • Conner: 16 // 8 // 12 // 20 // 11 // 17 // 10 // 26
  • Conner already has four multi-TD games this season
  • CAR has allowed just 5 RB TDs this season
  • Conner has 50+ yds in 6/8 games (53, 53, 66, 71, 64, 173)
  • Edmonds had 75+ yds in 5/7 full games (106, 75, 75, 139, 90)
  • Benjamin got 9 carries for 39 yds, TD in place of Edmonds last week
  • Dalvin & Zeke are the only RBs with 70+ rush yds vs CAR, and both went for 140+
  • CAR has allowed the 2nd fewest RB rec yds
  • Opp rushing vs CAR since hot defensive start: DAL (30:210:1) // PHI (13:61) // MIN (33:180:1) // NYG (23:75:1) // ATL (18:79) // NE (33: 146)
  • CAR has allowed the 5th fewest RB DK pts/g

PJ Walker:

  • Walker’s lone start last year: 258:1:2 in 20-0 win vs DET
  • ARI has allowed 13 TDs to 7 INT
  • Garoppolo in heavy-comeback mode is the only QB to pass for 300+ yds vs ARI
  • Every other QB but Stafford (280 in heavy-comeback mode) has been below 250 pass yds: 212, 244, 219, 192, 234, 135, 184
  • CAR is implied for under 17 points
  • 238 10+ pt underdog QBs since 2014 have averaged 13.4 DK pts/g
  • When adding in an implied total under 17 pts, 139 of those QBs have averaged 11.4 DK pts/g

CAR WRs:

  • Moore has between 7-13 tg in every game
  • Players with 7+ tg vs ARI: Brown (4:49:1) // Jefferson (6:65:1), Thielen (6:39:1) // MJJ (6:62) // Kupp (5:64) // Deebo (3:58) // Odell (5:79) // Cooks (5:21) // Aiyuk (6:89:1), Deebo (5:63)
  • Moore’s first four games (DK pts): 15.4 // 21.9 // 23.5 // 34.9
  • Moore’s last five games (DK pts): 8.8 // 11.9 // 13.3 // 9.9 // 7.6
  • Anderson has 57 total yds on 31 targets over the last five games

Christian McCaffrey:

  • Since Week 9 of 2018, CMC has scored under 24 DK pts just six times in 31 full games
  • Two of those six came in W17 blowouts vs NOR in which multiple starters either didn’t play or finish game
  • One was last week vs NE in his first game back from a 6-week absence
  • CMC has 30+ pts in 16 of those 31 games and 35+ in 8 of them
  • Vance Joseph has only had one rush def in his 5 seasons as HC or DC that finished as a top 20 rush def in yds allowed
  • ARI has allowed the 14th most rush yds (111 yds/g)
  • Lead RB vs ARI: Henry (17:58) // Dalvin (22:131) // Robinson (15:88:1) // Henderson (14:89) // Mitchell (9:43) // Hunt (14:66) // Johnson (7:25) // Dillon (16:78) // Mitchell (8:36)
  • CMC rushing in 2021: 98 // 72:1 // 52
  • Backfield rec yds vs ARI: TEN (43) // MIN (34) // JAC (46) // LAR (27) // SF (54) // CLE (39) // HOU (45) // GB (51) // SF (68)
  • CMC receiving in 2021: 89 // 65 // 54
  • CMC touches in full games in 2021: 21 att, 9 tg // 24 att, 6 tg // 14 att, 5 tg