Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- Both teams rank in the top 10 in situation-neutral pace of play.
- Atlanta will be passing based on necessity, as opposed to depending on game flow.
- Atlanta’s pace of play when trailing by seven or more points ranks third in the league.
- All of this comes together to provide a game environment highly likely to provide Dallas with heavy offensive volume.
How atlanta Will Try To Win ::
The Falcons have been forced into increased pass rates this season, not sctrictly based on game flow or environment, but largely due to the personnel available to them and the ineffectiveness of their run game. For example, Atlanta ranks ahead of only Houston (and behind Miami) in yards per rush attempt this season. Yikes. When a team is forced to the air out of necessity, as opposed to game script or environment, we get a situation where the pass volume is bankable regardless of environment. It starts to make sense why Matt Ryan has as many games over 40 pass attempts as he does under this season. We’ll cover more of what this means for the overall game environment below.
On the season, Atlanta ranks 25th in the league in rush attempts per game at 23.8. As we explored above, that is largely the byproduct of an ineffective run game as opposed to continued negative game environments (the 4-4 Falcons have two blowout losses and six games decided by one score or less). When your team averages only 3.4 yards per rush attempt, you simply rush less, that’s it. Running backs Mike Davis and Cordarrelle Patterson continue to operate in a strict timeshare, splitting the offensive snaps rather evenly over the previous four games. In those games, Davis averages 12 running back opportunities per game while Patterson averages 15.25 with heavy pass game involvement (five targets per game over that time). The matchup on paper is a poor one for the Falcons ground game, yielding a below-average 4.09 net-adjusted line yards metric.
The pass game flows primarily through rookie phenom tight end Kyle Pitts, Cordarrelle Patterson, and slot-man turned primary-receiver option, Russell Gage. Tajae Sharpe and Olamide Zaccheaus round out the standard pass-catching corps for the Falcons, each seeing slot snaps as well as snaps out wide. The pure matchup for the Falcons tilts expected production towards the short to intermediate middle of the field, away from two of the most surprising lockdown perimeter corners in the league in Trevon Diggs and Anthony Brown. One aspect to keep in mind is the extreme aggression Trevon Diggs has played with this season. Diggs has seven interceptions on the year but has also allowed 508 yards on only 23 receptions in his primary coverage, indicating a player that continually goes for the “home run” play. It will be interesting to see how the Cowboys handle Kyle Pitts here, as there is no clear evidence to support shadow coverage. The most likely way for the Falcons to find aerial success here is through Cordarrelle Patterson out of the backfield, as the Cowboys defensive weakness is with linebackers in coverage. That hasn’t really been the avenue that Patterson has seen his pass game volume to date, as he has routinely been both motioned out of the backfield and lined up in the slot.
How dallas Will Try To Win ::
The Cowboys hold a moderate situation-neutral pass rate of 56% with Dak Prescott as the starting quarterback, compared to the 64% we saw with Cooper Rush as the starter. Overall, we expect the Cowboys to play with pace (third fastest situation-neutral pace of play and fourth fastest overall pace of play), with elevated rush rates, and an offense that creates little pre-snap misdirection but is designed to maximize the talents of the offensive personnel available. For all the struggles the Falcons defense has played through this season, their one glaring strength is a heavy zone scheme designed to limit downfield passing. Other than that, this defense can be beaten any which way the Cowboys choose.
Offensive tackle Tyron Smith is a massive part of the superb run grades of this Dallas offensive line, which was fairly evident last week when the Cowboys struggled to run the football against the Broncos. His status is currently uncertain following two DNPs, so keep an eye on his level of involvement on Friday. Ezekiel Elliott should continue to operate as a “new age NFL workhorse” running back, having played at least 70% of the offensive snaps in all but two games this season (the only games he failed to do so coming in a Week 5 blowout win and last week’s blowout loss to the Broncos). Expect 22-24 running back opportunities with legitimate pass game involvement (three or more targets in five of his previous six games). Zeke will be backed up by the talented Tony Pollard, who should see 12-14 running back opportunities of his own in a standard week. The matchup on the ground yields an extreme 4.83 net-adjusted line yards metric, which takes a slight hit should Tyron Smith miss again.
Wide receiver Cedrick Wilson has yet to practice this week following a shoulder injury sustained in Week 9. This would be bigger news than it is for these Cowboys, but the team is expecting Michael Gallup back from injured reserve, who should slot back into his WR3 role this week. The heavy 12-personnel rates from the Cowboys should also take a slight hit moving forward with Blake Jarwin on IR, meaning we’re likeliest to see the moderate 56% 11-personnel rate on the season increase once more here. That leaves Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, Michael Gallup, and Dalton Schultz as the primary pass-catchers of this offense for the foreseeable future. As discussed elsewhere in this writeup, the one strength of the Falcons defense is the ability to limit downfield pass work, which dents Gallup’s expected production in his return, leaving the likeliest path of least resistance with Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, and Dalton Schultz.
Likeliest Game Flow ::
With the understanding of the discussion above surrounding Atlanta and their forced aerial attack, we start to understand that Atlanta will be passing regardless of game flow. That is important information to understand when analyzing this game environment, as it is highly likely to sustain (or slightly boost) the 68.1 offensive plays run per game for the Cowboys. Again, why is this important? It gives us a game environment with additional certainty, which is a major plus in today’s DFS landscape. We can project the Cowboys to run 65-70 offensive plays here with a high level of confidence, which, when paired with the likeliest game flow of the Cowboys controlling the scoreboard, pace, and tempo with moderate team rush/pass rates, becomes a more stable game environment for the Cowboys offensive pieces. In all, it is highly likely the Cowboys control this game against an Atlanta team allowing 27.5 points per game (28th in the league), and the tendencies of the Falcons provide additional certainty to us.
OWS FAM GOOGLE DRIVE
BANKROLL TRACKER
TOP PLAYS OF THE WEEKEND
SORTABLE GREEN ZONE TOUCHES
TEAM & PLAYER DK POINTS
WEEKLY HAND-BUILDER
DFS+ Interpretation ::
By LexMiraglia10 >>
Overview:
- DAL DC Dan Quinn was ATL’s HC for the last few years, giving Ryan & Quinn lots of familiarity with each other here
- ATL game totals: 38 // 73 // 31 // 64 // 47 // 58 // 32 // 52
- DAL game totals: 60 // 37 // 62 // 64 // 64 // 64 // 36 // 46
Matt Ryan:
- Ryan has 22+ DK pts in 5/8 games, with highs of 29 & 31.5 DK pts
- DAL has allowed the 4th most QB DK pts/g
- DAL has allowed the 5th most QB pass yds/g (287.9)
- Ryan has 300+ yds in half of his games so far
- Ryan has thrown the 8th most pass att/g
ATL WRs:
- Targets w/o Ridley: Sharpe (5, 6, 1) // Olamide (4, 1, 3) // Gage (–, 0, 8)
- Gage since returning: 4:67:1 // 0:0 // 7:64
- DAL has allowed the 6th most WR yds & 8th most WR DK pts/g
- WRs with 70+ yds vs DAL: AB (121), Godwin (105) // Allen (108), Williams (91) // Moore (113) // Toney (189) // Bourne (75) // Thielen (78) // Patrick (85)
- All but Allen & Toney scored at least one TD as well
- Zacchaeus has 3 games of 70+ yds in 29 career games
- Sharpe has 3 games of 70+ yds in 59 career games
- Gage has 4 games of 70+ yds in 52 career games
Kyle Pitts:
- Pitts targets: 8, 6, 3, 9, 10, 8, 6, 7
- Pitts without Ridley: 9:119:1 // 2:13 // 3:62
- CAR & NOR have allowed the 4th & 5th lowest success rates to TEs, with Pitts seeing coverage from Gilmore & Lattimore
- DAL has allowed the 10th highest success rate & 6th highest yds/att to TEs
- TEs vs DAL: Gronk (8:90:2) // Cook (3:28) // Goedert (2:66), Ertz (4:53:1) // Engram (4:55) // Henry (2:25:1) // Conklin (5:57); Both Parham & Cook had TDs called back vs DAL in W2
ATL RBs:
- DAL ranks 15th in def rush DVOA
- RBs with 50+ rush yds vs DAL: Ekeler (54) // Hubbard (57) // Harris (101:1) // Cook (78) // Gordon (80:1), Williams (111)
- Rush att first four games: Davis (15 // 9 // 12 // 13) // CPatt (7 // 7 // 7 // 6)
- Rush att last four games: Davis (13 // 4 // 9 // 9) // CPatt (14 // 14 // 9 // 9)
- Davis has yet to top 75 yds on the season, with a rushing yds high of 53
- CPatt has 75+ yds in four of eight games, but with a rushing yds high of 60
- CPatt’s floor since W2 has been 14 DK pts (23.9, 16.2, 34.6, 18.4, 14.1, 18.2, 22.6)
- CPatt has 7 TDs on the season, with two multi-TD games
- CPatt has 5+ rec in 6/8 games (2 // 5 // 6 // 5 // 7 // 2 // 5 // 6)
- His rec yds in the games with 5+ rec: 58:1 // 82 // 82:3 // 60 // 37:1 // 126
- Notable RB receiving vs DAL: TB (39) // Ekeler (61) // PHI (65) // CAR (62) // Booker (16:1) // Rhamondre (39)
Dak Prescott:
- ATL has allowed the 8th most QB DK pts/g
- Four of ATL’s eight QB opponents have scored 3+ TDs, while three of the other 4 have scored 0
- Dak has 3+ TDs in five of seven games
- Dak vs ATL in 2020: 450:1 (passing), 18:3 (rushing); (so 4 total TDs)
- Dak pass yds in first five games with McCarthy: 266 // 450 // 472 // 502 // 403
- Dak pass yds in last six games with McCarthy: 237 // 238 // 188 // 302 // 445 // 232
- ATL hasn’t allowed a 300yd passer this year, but Heinicke & Tua both reached 290
DAL WRs:
- ATL has allowed the 5th highest success rate to WRs
- Evans & McLaurin are the only two WRs with 20+ DK pts vs ATL, and both scored 2 TDs
- Smith, Evans, McLaurin, Waddle are the only WRs with 70+ rec yds vs ATL
- Lamb has 70+ yds in 5 of 8 games
- Cooper has 70+ yds in 2 of 8 games
- Cooper’s only 2 games both surpassed 100 yds, and both came in games Lamb also surpassed 100 yds
- WR targets with Dak: Lamb (58) // Cooper (47) // Wilson (24) // Gallup (7, one shortened game)
- DAL WRs vs ATL in 2020: Lamb (6:106) // Cooper (6:100) // Gallup (2:58)
Dalton Schultz:
- TEs vs ATL: Ertz (34), Goedert (42:1) // Gronk (39:2) // Engram (21) // RSJ (19) // Gesicki (85:1) // Tremble (18) // Trautman (47)
- Schultz targets: 6, 2, 7, 8, 8, 6, 7, 5
- Schultz has just one game below 45 yds with Dak: 45, 18, 80, 58, 79, 79, 54
DAL RBs:
- DAL RB rush att: 14 // 29 // 31 // 30 // 35 // 27 // 23 // 14
- Rush att: Elliott (11, 16, 17, 20, 21, 17, 16, 10) // Pollard (3, 13, 11, 10, 14, 10, 7, 4)
- Targets: Elliott (2, 2, 3, 1, 3, 9, 6, 3) // Pollard (4, 3, 1, 0, 4, 3, 1, 2)
- Total yds: Elliott (39, 97, 116, 143, 112, 119, 73, 76) // Pollard (43, 140, 65, 67, 103, 63, 27, 43)
- Elliot scores by W10 DK salary multiplier: 0.84 // 2.5 // 3.8 // 3.3 // 4.0 // 2.7 // 1.6 // 1.8
- ATL ranks 27th in def rush DVOA
- ATL has allowed the 8th most RB DK pts/g (27.6)
- Sanders (74) & Hubbard (82) are the only RBs to crack 70 rush yds vs ATL
- Five other RBs have reached 50 rush yds, & five RBs have reached 30 rec yds vs ATL
- ATL has allowed a RB TD in 7/8 games
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