Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• The Jets allow the most yards per game in the league at over 408 yards; the Bills rank eighth on offense at 390.1 per game.
• The Jets rank 24^th in the league in total offense per game at 328.9 yards; the Bills rank first in total yards allowed per game at 262.6.
• The heavy Cover-3 defensive alignment rate seen from the Jets is likeliest to benefit Emmanuel Sanders deep and Cole Beasley over the intermediate middle of the field.
• The Bills backfield becomes extremely interesting if Zack Moss misses this contest. 

How buffalo Will Try To Win ::

I made a joke on Twitter about how weird it is that each of Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen has been starting NFL quarterbacks for about four years and that it took the league that long to realize neither can pass against 2-High defensive alignments. Although meant as a tongue-in-cheek joke, last week’s offensive performance from the Bills was Maui-Wowy levels of bad. The good news is the Bills now get an opponent ranked 31st in defensive DVOA against the run, 30th against the pass, and surrender the most opponent yards per game at 408.1.

It’s hard to be poor against opposing backfields both on the ground and through the air, but that is exactly what we have seen from the Jets this season. They have surrendered the most fantasy points per game to opposing backfields by a large margin (40.6 per game, second-worst are the Lions at 31.2), including a startling 4.74 yards per carry, 79 targets (second-most in the league), and 16 (!!!) total touchdowns through eight games. Although thought of as a pass-first offense (and rightfully so, for the most part), the combination of Zack Moss and Devin Singletary has combined for 25.3 running back opportunities per game since Week 2, with a healthy 47 targets over that same time (6.71 per game). All of that lead-in was meant to highlight how valuable this backfield might be should one member miss a contest, as 25.3 opportunities including 6.71 targets is a workload that rivals the new age workhorse. Zack Moss picked up a concussion in Week 9 and got a limited session in on Thursday in a non-contact jersey. He is still in the concussion protocol and, unless cleared, would leave a large portion of this backfield to Devin Singletary. Should he return, disregard this entire segment and consider this backfield a gross timeshare with no usable pieces.

We know what we’re getting from this passing game. Emmanuel Sanders is on the field the most as the Swiss Army knife and carries a deep aDOT, capable of playing all receiver positions on the field. Stefon Diggs operates as the “one” but typically is not needed for or fed elite volume. Cole Beasley is the safety valve needed for heavy volume when teams force this passing attack shallow. The return of tight end Dawson Knox puts an end to the elevated snap rates for arguably the top WR4 in the league in Gabriel Davis. Knox is in a route on 89% of the pass plays he is on the field for and carries a solid-for-a-tight-end 8.5 aDOT, but has seen over just five targets only once all season. The running backs typically combine for six to eight targets. Finally, Josh Allen has thrown for multiple touchdowns in every game but two this season (Week 1 in a loss to Pittsburgh and last week when the Bills failed to score a touchdown) and has hit at least 42 pass attempts each of the past three games. The Jets rank 29th in the league in completion rate allowed (68.73%) and 20th in yards allowed per completion (11.0), meaning we shouldn’t expect much in the way to slow this Bills passing attack down this week.

How new york Will Try To Win ::

The Jets appear likely to get number one receiver Corey Davis back this week, but that about ends the positives. The gun-slinging ways of Zach Wilson have dried up with the team forced to start Mike White at quarterback, whose 5.5 intended air yards per pass attempt as the starter rank dead last in the league, amongst qualified quarterbacks (for comparison sake, Zach Wilson ranks sixth in the NFL at 8.7). The vast majority of the production under White has come through the running backs and tight ends, and the team will now be without starting tight end Tyler Kroft. This week, the Jets take on a defense allowing the fewest total yards per game, the fewest points per game, and the fewest pass yards per game.

The backfield has been a relatively tight 70/30 split as far as both snap rate and opportunities go in the absence of Tevin Coleman, who is expected to return this week following three missed games plus the bye. I’d expect all three of Michael Carter, Ty Johnson, and Coleman to be involved moving forward, with Carter likely leading the way in snap rate and opportunities. A tight 50/30/20 split amongst those three is likeliest here. Although the running backs hold the most utility on this offense with Mike White under center, their opponent could not be worse this week for expected running back production. The Bills have ceded only 41 targets to opposing backfields (fourth-lowest in the league), have given up only 518 rush yards to opposing backfields (fewest in the league), and have surrendered only four total touchdowns to opposing backfields this year. The pure matchup yields a disgusting 3.63 net-adjusted line yards metric, which is one of the lowest values you will see all year.

With Corey Davis coming back and Tyler Kroft moved to the IR, expect the four primary pass-catchers for this one to be Davis, Jamison Crowder, rookie Elijah Moore, and tight end Ryan Griffin. Corey Davis’ 13.6 aDOT came exclusively with Zach Wilson at quarterback, but he should be the primary downfield threat. Elijah Moore has seen snaps all over the formation and carries an intermediate aDOT of 11.5, which has largely held true with White tossing the ball. Jamison Crowder works almost exclusively from the slot and is the pass-catcher likeliest to find success here. Finally, Ryan Griffin’s modest 5.8 aDOT and 78% route participation rate (which is likely to grow a bit here) keeps his ceiling rather thin but comes with a solid price-considered floor (which means next to nothing to us, to be honest). Add it all together, and the fantasy prospectus of this passing attack leaves little room for upside.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

The likeliest game flow here is one of the more sure-thing scenarios we have seen in some time, with the Bills so clearly the better team in all areas of the field. Expect their defense to crack down on the Jets offense while little stands in the way of Josh Allen and their vaunted passing attack this week. Heck, even the run game should get going. Because of this, we’re going to want to pick and choose our exposure in a game likely to be extremely lopsided. I’m able to confidently say the Jets should have a tougher time than usual (and that’s saying a lot already) moving the ball here because their likeliest path to do so involves the running backs, when the Bills have ceded the fourth-fewest targets to opposing backfields and the fewest fantasy points against per game.

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DFS+ Interpretation ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• Tampa Bay leads the league in situation-neutral pass rate at 67% (as we all know by now).
• Washington allows the most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks.
• Bucs are likely to be down Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski, while Chris Godwin has yet to practice this week (which is notable with the team coming off their bye).
• Washington has pertinent injury news of their own to follow, as all of Dyami Brown, Cam Sims, and Curtis Samuel remain questionable on Thursday.

How tampa bay Will Try To Win ::

The Buccaneers lead the league in situation-neutral pass rate at 67%, lead the league in pass attempts per game at 43.8, rank fifth in total offensive plays per game at 67.6 (this stat considers multiple inputs, such as offensive efficiency, pace of play, and defensive efficiency), and lead the league in points scored per game at 32.5. Their opponent, the Washington Football Team, presents a pass-funnel matchup, ranking 10^th in DVOA against the run but 31^st against the pass. It should be fairly clear how the Bucs are likeliest to attack here, although we must consider the banged-up status of their pass-catchers (Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski are trending towards another missed game, while Chris Godwin has yet to practice coming off their bye and in danger of an absence) when dissecting this side of the matchup. There are three likely outcomes with respect to pass-catcher usage that I see here: 

1. We see the Bucs increase their low 12-personnel usage (above-average 71% 11-personnel usage on the season) if Chris Godwin also misses leaving Mike Evans, Tyler Johnson, Cameron Brate, and OJ Howard as the primary pass-catchers
2. We see Chris Godwin miss but Scottie Miller returns leaving Mike Evans, Tyler Johnson, Cameron Brate, and Scottie Miller as the primary pass-catchers
3. We see Chris Godwin return to practice on Friday and play leaving Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Tyler Johnson, and Cameron Brate as the primary pass-catchers.

Keep an eye on the statuses of Chris Godwin and Scottie Miller for the rest of the week. Another hint to the possible status of Godwin would be the activation of Scottie Miller, which would lead me to believe Godwin is unlikely to play. 

To put the above thought process in another way, I would say with a high level of confidence that we don’t see a substantial increase to the low situation-neutral rush rates from the Bucs here, and instead see the same pass-heavy approach here (Tom Brady has under 40 pass attempts in only two games this year, each of which Brady finished with 36 pass attempts in Bucs blowout wins). Let’s take a look at the game logs for Leonard Fournette, which should help to hammer this idea home. Only twice this season has Leonard Fournette reached 20 rush attempts, and both of those games came against the two most run-funnel defenses the Bucs have played this season (Philadelphia and New England). In games against neutral-to-pass-funnel defenses (NO, CHI, MIA, LAR, ATL, and DAL), we’ve seen the same pass-heavy approach. Tampa Bay’s situation-neutral pass rates against the Eagles and Patriots sat at 59%. Their situation-neutral pass rates against all other opponents sit at 68%. We spoke to the pass-funnel nature of this Washington defense above, leading me to the conclusion that we see Brady once again throw the football 40+ times here, regardless of who his pass-catchers end up being. Further justification comes through Washington’s eighth-ranked adjusted line yards allowed on defense (3.87). With all of that considered, the likeliest scenario for me leads to 12-15 carries and the standard four to seven targets for Leonard Fournette in a difficult on-paper rushing matchup. 

We know the pure matchup for the pass game is an extreme positive for the Bucs this week, but we have a good deal of unknowns surrounding who those pass-catchers will be. As opposed to going over what we already did above again, keep those thoughts in mind as we consider the pass-catchers from this offense. If Chris Godwin plays, he and Mike Evans should make up the vast majority of the targets and production from the Bucs this week. Should Godwin miss, we now have to consider the status of Scottie Miller before we single out pass-catchers, as his presence indicates a likely 11-personnel-heavy approach, dampening the viability of both Cameron Brate and OJ Howard. Keep an eye on the statuses of Antonio Brown (likely to miss), Rob Gronkowski (likely to miss), Chris Godwin (status unknown), and Scottie Miller (status unknown – coming off the IR).

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How washington Will Try To Win ::

The 2-6 Football Team is coming off a string of four losses against difficult opponents (NO, KC, GB, DEN). During that stretch, quarterback Taylor Heinicke has attempted between 37 and 41 passes in each game, giving us a good idea of how Washington is likeliest to attack against an extreme pass-funnel defense. Washington’s 10^th-ranked situation-neutral pace of play (29.90) jumps over three seconds to 26.32 in the second half this season, which indicates a team that has both been playing from behind a ton this season and is remaining aggressive deep into those games, trying to fight back into contention. This is good news for this game environment!

Jaret Patterson has entered the picture for this backfield, parlaying a 23% snap rate in Week 8 into 11 rush attempts for 46 yards and zero catches on one target. Those snaps came at the detriment to starter Antonio Gibson (just a 33% snap rate in Week 8), who continues to play through a shin fracture. JD McKissic has seen a 40% or greater snap rate in every game since Week 1, peaking at 64% in Week 7. During that stretch of three truly difficult matchups, McKissic has turned snap rates of 61%, 64%, and 46% into target counts of 10, six, and eight. The matchup is the most difficult that the Football Team has seen all year on the ground, against an extreme pass-funnel Bucs defense. It yields a below-average 4.06 net-adjusted line yards metric, and carries are likely to be split amongst Gibson and Patterson.

The pass game brings a good deal of uncertainty, primarily surrounding the injuries on hand. All of Curtis Samuel, Dyami Brown, and Cam Sims should be viewed as questionable heading into the final practice session of the week, with Samuel appearing likeliest to miss here. What we do know is that the Washington offense operates heavily from 11-personnel (second highest 11-personnel rate in the league). We know the Bucs have surrendered more than the league average fantasy points to opposing wide receivers and tight ends, but they also have filtered 67 targets to opposing backfields as well. Outside of McLaurin, McKissic, and tight end Ricky Seals-Jones, the targets should be rather spread out.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

We’re likeliest to see the Bucs control the pace, tempo, and flow of this game from start to finish, regardless of the statuses of their pass-catchers. Tom Brady and Bruce Arians are simply too good at scheming and managing this offense before and during the game. The more important aspect to understand here is that we have two coaching staffs that remain aggressive deep into games, and that are trying to win football games as opposed to “playing not to lose.” This presents us with the optimal game environment for DFS purposes, as we’re not reliant on game flow to dictate how each team is likeliest to attack. Furthering that idea is the fact that we have two defenses that present pass-funnel tendencies, increasing the likely pass volume from the game as a whole. Again, another boost to the game environment.

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DFS+ Interpretation ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• Both teams rank in the top 10 in situation-neutral pace of play.
• Atlanta will be passing based on necessity, as opposed to depending on game flow.
• Atlanta’s pace of play when trailing by seven or more points ranks third in the league.
• All of this comes together to provide a game environment highly likely to provide Dallas with heavy offensive volume.

How atlanta Will Try To Win ::

The Falcons have been forced into increased pass rates this season, not sctrictly based on game flow or environment, but largely due to the personnel available to them and the ineffectiveness of their run game. For example, Atlanta ranks ahead of only Houston (and behind Miami) in yards per rush attempt this season. Yikes. When a team is forced to the air out of necessity, as opposed to game script or environment, we get a situation where the pass volume is bankable regardless of environment. It starts to make sense why Matt Ryan has as many games over 40 pass attempts as he does under this season. We’ll cover more of what this means for the overall game environment below.

On the season, Atlanta ranks 25^th in the league in rush attempts per game at 23.8. As we explored above, that is largely the byproduct of an ineffective run game as opposed to continued negative game environments (the 4-4 Falcons have two blowout losses and six games decided by one score or less). When your team averages only 3.4 yards per rush attempt, you simply rush less, that’s it. Running backs Mike Davis and Cordarrelle Patterson continue to operate in a strict timeshare, splitting the offensive snaps rather evenly over the previous four games. In those games, Davis averages 12 running back opportunities per game while Patterson averages 15.25 with heavy pass game involvement (five targets per game over that time). The matchup on paper is a poor one for the Falcons ground game, yielding a below-average 4.09 net-adjusted line yards metric.

The pass game flows primarily through rookie phenom tight end Kyle Pitts, Cordarrelle Patterson, and slot-man turned primary-receiver option, Russell Gage. Tajae Sharpe and Olamide Zaccheaus round out the standard pass-catching corps for the Falcons, each seeing slot snaps as well as snaps out wide. The pure matchup for the Falcons tilts expected production towards the short to intermediate middle of the field, away from two of the most surprising lockdown perimeter corners in the league in Trevon Diggs and Anthony Brown. One aspect to keep in mind is the extreme aggression Trevon Diggs has played with this season. Diggs has seven interceptions on the year but has also allowed 508 yards on only 23 receptions in his primary coverage, indicating a player that continually goes for the “home run” play. It will be interesting to see how the Cowboys handle Kyle Pitts here, as there is no clear evidence to support shadow coverage. The most likely way for the Falcons to find aerial success here is through Cordarrelle Patterson out of the backfield, as the Cowboys defensive weakness is with linebackers in coverage. That hasn’t really been the avenue that Patterson has seen his pass game volume to date, as he has routinely been both motioned out of the backfield and lined up in the slot.

How dallas Will Try To Win ::

The Cowboys hold a moderate situation-neutral pass rate of 56% with Dak Prescott as the starting quarterback, compared to the 64% we saw with Cooper Rush as the starter. Overall, we expect the Cowboys to play with pace (third fastest situation-neutral pace of play and fourth fastest overall pace of play), with elevated rush rates, and an offense that creates little pre-snap misdirection but is designed to maximize the talents of the offensive personnel available. For all the struggles the Falcons defense has played through this season, their one glaring strength is a heavy zone scheme designed to limit downfield passing. Other than that, this defense can be beaten any which way the Cowboys choose.

Offensive tackle Tyron Smith is a massive part of the superb run grades of this Dallas offensive line, which was fairly evident last week when the Cowboys struggled to run the football against the Broncos. His status is currently uncertain following two DNPs, so keep an eye on his level of involvement on Friday. Ezekiel Elliott should continue to operate as a “new age NFL workhorse” running back, having played at least 70% of the offensive snaps in all but two games this season (the only games he failed to do so coming in a Week 5 blowout win and last week’s blowout loss to the Broncos). Expect 22-24 running back opportunities with legitimate pass game involvement (three or more targets in five of his previous six games). Zeke will be backed up by the talented Tony Pollard, who should see 12-14 running back opportunities of his own in a standard week. The matchup on the ground yields an extreme 4.83 net-adjusted line yards metric, which takes a slight hit should Tyron Smith miss again.

Wide receiver Cedrick Wilson has yet to practice this week following a shoulder injury sustained in Week 9. This would be bigger news than it is for these Cowboys, but the team is expecting Michael Gallup back from injured reserve, who should slot back into his WR3 role this week. The heavy 12-personnel rates from the Cowboys should also take a slight hit moving forward with Blake Jarwin on IR, meaning we’re likeliest to see the moderate 56% 11-personnel rate on the season increase once more here. That leaves Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, Michael Gallup, and Dalton Schultz as the primary pass-catchers of this offense for the foreseeable future. As discussed elsewhere in this writeup, the one strength of the Falcons defense is the ability to limit downfield pass work, which dents Gallup’s expected production in his return, leaving the likeliest path of least resistance with Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, and Dalton Schultz.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

With the understanding of the discussion above surrounding Atlanta and their forced aerial attack, we start to understand that Atlanta will be passing regardless of game flow. That is important information to understand when analyzing this game environment, as it is highly likely to sustain (or slightly boost) the 68.1 offensive plays run per game for the Cowboys. Again, why is this important? It gives us a game environment with additional certainty, which is a major plus in today’s DFS landscape. We can project the Cowboys to run 65-70 offensive plays here with a high level of confidence, which, when paired with the likeliest game flow of the Cowboys controlling the scoreboard, pace, and tempo with moderate team rush/pass rates, becomes a more stable game environment for the Cowboys offensive pieces. In all, it is highly likely the Cowboys control this game against an Atlanta team allowing 27.5 points per game (28^th in the league), and the tendencies of the Falcons provide additional certainty to us.

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DFS+ Interpretation ::

Game Overview ::

By mjohnson86 >>

• This game sets up as a defensive battle between two teams who have lost key offensive pieces in recent weeks but have been rolling defensively.
• One of the lower total games on the slate but a close spread and explosive offensive players for both sides give this game some increased volatility.
• Both teams play at a slower pace and are two of the run-heaviest offenses in the league.
• There are some unknowns that make this game somewhat less predictable than we would usually expect at this point in the year. How will the Titans play without Derrick Henry if they don’t have a big lead? What will the Saints offense look like if they turn to Taysom Hill as their starting QB?

How new orleans Will Try To Win ::

The Saints are a team that looked like they found themselves after big wins in Seattle and the Bucs, but the loss of Jameis Winston is now forcing them to figure things out week by week. As the most conservative passing offense in the league (32nd in pass rate), and playing at the fifth slowest pace of play, this is not a team looking for track meets, and question marks at quarterback will certainly not increase the chances of that happening. The Saints are well-coached, however, and have played every game competitively with the exception of laying an egg in Carolina in Week 2 (right after their disruption and moving all over due to the hurricane in New Orleans). Outside of that game, the Saints are 5-2 with their losses coming in OT to the Giants and on an FG at the end of regulation last week.

While the Titans defense has performed great recently, it should also be noted that those great performances were against two of the more pass-centric offenses in the league and they will now be facing a Saints team that runs the ball at the highest rate in the league. Tennessee’s run defense is 24th in DVOA and notably struggled with dual-threat QBs in Kyler Murray and Josh Allen. While those players are on a much different level than Taysom Hill, the Saints probably have a much greater chance of offensive success by adding his element to the running game than they do taking their chances with Trevor Siemian. While Siemian is definitely a greater threat in the passing game, it is hard to imagine he will muster much success against a defense that made Patrick Mahomes and Matthew Stafford look terrible. With success through the air unlikely either way, the Saints may turn to Hill as a means of fully leveraging their running game and attacking the relative weakness of the Titans. 

How tennessee Will Try To Win ::

Tennessee is such an interesting case study as a team with a run-first mentality who lost their bell cow running back, Derrick Henry, for the season and is facing the top run defense in the league. The Titans also have some injury issues on their offensive line, specifically star tackle Taylor Lewan, and are now faced with an interesting decision on how to approach this game. Their pass rate remained similar to their season averages in Week 9 (their first game without Henry), but that was mainly due to their defense forcing some early takeaways that led to a 21-3 first-half lead where they had no incentive to up the pace or pass rate. 

Entering this game, it is hard to imagine the Titans will be able to move the ball on the ground. While “establishing the run” has been their identity for quite some time, this is clearly a spot where that philosophy will fail. It is worth noting how terrible this offense looked on Monday night against the Rams until the defense handed them a 14-3 lead. The Titans offense managed 28 total yards with one turnover in their first three possessions and finished with under 200 total yards of offense. If the Titans want to move the ball effectively, they will have no choice but to turn to the passing game at a higher than normal rate and utilize their stud wide receivers who both appear to be fully healthy for the first time this season. Tennessee will still lean into the run and short passing game (to backs and tight ends) as much as they can depending on the game flow, and they will stay in a shell if they are able to fall into another early lead.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

Everything about this game flow likely depends on the Saints ability to sustain some offensive success early. The Titans played it close to the vest with play calling that lacked creativity and didn’t get their best players involved early against the Rams, but their defense made the plays to get them a lead that allowed them to maintain that approach. They will likely approach this game similarly and bank on Trevor Siemian (or Taysom Hill) making mistakes to give them the upper hand. While this is not great for fantasy purposes, the Titans are one of the top teams in the league right now after dominating the Chiefs and Rams. Their defense is playing at an elite level making it unlikely they will go off script unless they have to. 

If the Saints are able to score points and/or build a lead early, this would force the Titans to lean into their passing game, which will be much more efficient and explosive than their “three yards and a cloud of dust” running game. We should expect, with a high degree of confidence, that this will be a close game at the end. The Saints, as noted above, play well enough that they are always in it late, and the Titans are simply playing too well to let this game get away from them. What that likely means is that both teams will be able to stay in their comfort zone of slow pace and high run rate for the majority of the game. The status of the Saints QB situation and Alvin Kamara’s injury status should be closely monitored, as they will have a big impact on how this game plays out.

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DFS+ Interpretation ::

Game Overview ::

By mjohnson86 >>

• Jacksonville enters this game on an all-time high after their huge upset of the Bills in Week 9, while Indianapolis is coming off a 10-day rest after playing last Thursday night.
• The Colts are quietly one of the top scoring offenses in the league, while the Jaguars have scored 20 points only three times this year.
• Most people are likely going to overrate the Jaguars defense after their great showing last week, but the Colts are the type of offense they really struggle with.

How jacksonville Will Try To Win ::

The Jaguars ran the ball 20+ times with Carlos Hyde in Week 8, so it is safe to say that they are committed to a conservative, run-based approach. The possible return of James Robinson would only serve to increase the chances of a heavy dose of runs in this spot. The problem Jacksonville will face this week is a Colts run defense headed by Darius Leonard that ranks 2nd in run defense DVOA. They are a defense built on speed and making their opponents one-dimensional by eliminating the running game and then making plays from their zone coverages when opponents face long down and distance situations. Jacksonville will likely lean into the run as they will try to “keep the formula” that gave them a big win last week, but that is going to make it unlikely they score points early in this game.

Even in the passing game, Jacksonville has become much more conservative in their approach as the season has progressed. Marvin Jones, the Jaguars’ top downfield threat, has not topped 40 receiving yards in four of his last five games as the Jaguars have instead funneled targets to the underneath portions of the field. Trevor Lawrence also left Week 9 with an ankle injury, so Jacksonville will do what they can to limit his need to run around and extend plays — further pushing the Jaguars to short, quick passes when they turn to the air.

How indianapolis Will Try To Win ::

Much has been made of the Jaguars’ defense shutting down the high-powered Bills offense. It was not something that many people saw coming, as the Bills are notoriously a great passing offense, and Jacksonville ranks 32nd in the NFL in pass defense DVOA. One thing I like to look at, however, is themes in how teams perform in certain matchups. Diving deeper into the Jacksonville defense, the teams with which they have had the most trouble are teams that are balanced and have formidable running attacks, and/or will stay committed to the run. The Cardinals, Titans, and Seahawks all went for 31+ points against the Jaguars, while Jacksonville surrendered only 22 points per game in their other five games. All three of those offenses I mentioned have top-10 yards per carry averages and/or top-10 situation-neutral run rates.

That context is vital to our exploration of this game because the natural inclination of a lot of people will likely be that the Jaguars defense has found its footing, and a team with a rookie QB and rookie head coach may be “figuring it out” halfway through the season. The reality is that the Jaguars are still not very good from a personnel standpoint and their success last week (and in some other spots this year) had more to do with their opponent being very predictable and allowing them to adjust to take something away without being punished for it. This will not be the case with the Colts. Jonathan Taylor is on an incredible run, and the Colts offensive line has been dominating of late. Michael Pittman has emerged as an “alpha” wide receiver, and Carson Wentz, despite a few head-scratching plays against tough competition, is playing at a high level in games against mediocre to poor opponents. The Colts have scored 30+ points in four consecutive games and 24+ points in seven of nine games on the year. The Jaguars will not be able to sell out to stop one thing in this matchup, and the Colts’ formidable rushing attack will be able to dominate the line of scrimmage or leave Jacksonville exposed on the back end if they allocate more resources to slowing down the run game. This is a classic letdown spot for the Jaguars, and their Week 9 win will only serve to keep the Colts from overlooking them.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

Indianapolis is likely going to score points early and steadily throughout this game as their balanced attack will allow them to sustain drives. Jacksonville’s conservative approach and low likelihood of success in the run game make it unlikely that they will score many first-half points. Also, due to the unlikely need for the Colts to force things, it is unlikely Carson Wentz hands the Jaguars any gifts like he has done a few times this season and like Josh Allen did a couple of times last week.

The Colts are 32nd (dead last) in the NFL in situation-neutral pace of play which means that the first half of this game likely looks like this: long Colts drives that take a lot of time off the clock, and short Jaguars drives that also keep the clock running. There is a chance that the Colts make some explosive plays which would turn things up some, but either way, it is likely to be a game of relatively limited possessions in the early going. As the game wears on, the Jaguars will have to become more aggressive, but that aggression looks very different for them than it does for most teams. Jacksonville’s “aggressive” is just spreading the field a bit more and throwing more often but primarily doing it in the short area. These throws usually have a high completion percentage and keep the clock moving, similar to a run-heavy attack. Simply put, this game will likely move quickly but has a chance for a lot of points due to tactical mismatches that the Colts have on both sides of the ball.

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DFS+ Interpretation ::

Game Overview ::

By mjohnson86 >>

• Unpredictable quarterback play and personnel deficiencies make projecting this game very difficult.
• Detroit is coming off a bye and has been playing hard and competing every week, despite their poor record.
• Pittsburgh is playing on a short week after winning a game they were lucky to escape from.
• Neither team is likely to attack consistently downfield, making this game about winning the turnover battle and sustaining drives.

How Detroit Will Try To Win ::

To the Lions’ credit, they have been competitive and played very hard for most of the season despite their lack of wins. Now they are in a decent spot to try and get their first win as they are rested coming off their bye week and playing a team on short rest. The style that Detroit uses to stay competitive is making the game “ugly” and turning it into a dog fight by slowing tempo and shortening the game. Their opponent this week plays right into that strategy as a team that has a solid 5-3 record but has not beaten anyone by more than one possession. 

Detroit’s offensive philosophy will likely focus on a spread running attack and short-area passing as that is where their personnel strengths lie and also where Pittsburgh is best attacked. The Steelers have PFF’s #5 graded pass rush and the 8th ranked run defense by DVOA. The combination of those factors, along with Detroit’s 25th graded pass-blocking unit, make it likely that the Lions will use short, quick passes to try to move the ball. They will likely have some success running the ball through volume, but in order to sustain drives and score points, they will have to move the ball through the air. Also, Jamaal Williams’ availability is looking very much in doubt and the Lions try to avoid overworking D’Andre Swift. If Williams misses, I would expect a higher pass rate rather than giving more carries to Swift or a backup. Due to the mismatch at the line of scrimmage and lack of downfield perimeter threats, the Lions will not want Jared Goff to be holding onto the ball very long. Pittsburgh has a high-end pass rush that ranks 3rd in the NFL in pressure rate and 6th in sacks per game. Detroit will funnel the ball to their best playmakers — D’Andre Swift and TJ Hockenson — in the short areas of the field and try to get them isolated in space or mismatches. The greatest concern is if their lack of downfield threats will allow Pittsburgh to clamp down on those areas and shut them down altogether.

How PITTSburgh Will Try To Win ::

The Steelers survived a rocky start to their season and have rattled off four straight wins to move within a game of the division lead. While it hasn’t always been pretty, they have found ways to win close games as all of their wins have been in one-score games. After narrowly escaping a furious 4th quarter comeback by the Bears on Monday night, Pittsburgh now hosts a winless Lions team that is coming off a bye. This is an important game for the Steelers to take care of business as seven of their eight games after this week are against teams who currently have a winning record. With such a tough schedule ahead of them, they can’t afford a setback on what *should* be a “gimme”. 

Injuries among skill players continue to narrow the target distribution for the Steelers. Already down JuJu Smith-Schuster, they now appear to have lost Chase Claypool for the next couple of weeks at least — a loss that can not be understated from an X’s and O’s standpoint. Claypool is a dynamic playmaker who forces defenses to stretch the field and open up space underneath, something that is critical for Pittsburgh as Ben Roethlisberger doesn’t threaten defenses the way he once did. Big Ben ranks 33rd out of 36 qualifying quarterbacks in average depth of target, per PFF, and Claypool leads the Steelers in percentage of targets 20+ yards downfield. The Steelers offensive line is PFF’s 29th graded run-blocking unit which has forced Najee Harris to churn out tough yards consistently to keep the run game working. Detroit is likely to stack the box and load up the short areas of the passing game with defenders and dare Ben to beat them over the top. Pittsburgh will funnel short-area touches to Najee Harris and Diontae Johnson, with their tight ends and replacement wide receivers receiving sporadic work as well.

Likeliest Game flow ::

Detroit’s approach will be predictable and allow the Steelers defense to be very aggressive early on. Detroit will need to focus on escaping first-half possessions without sacks and turnovers, essentially just surviving rather than attacking. Pittsburgh, on the other hand, will likely have more success due to their more talented skill positions and Detroit’s weak defense. While both offenses will prefer to attack in the shorter area of the field, if Detroit dares Pittsburgh to go downfield and the Steelers are successful doing so it could open the flood gates on this game very quickly. While Pittsburgh has yet to truly rout anyone, Detroit is by far the worst team they have faced this year. The “likeliest game flow” is something close to what is implied by the Vegas spread, but there is a lot of room for upside on that projection if things break right.

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Game Overview ::

By mjohnson86 >>

• Cleveland has running back issues due to COVID, but that is highly unlikely to alter their plan of attack.
• New England also has running back issues, and regardless of how that plays out, they are likely to lean towards the pass due to Cleveland’s top 5 run defense.
• Baker Mayfield continues to play his best football without Odell Beckham, Jr.
• New England is on a three-game win streak during which they have allowed only 13.7 points per game.
• Cleveland’s defense really struggled early in the season but has held three straight opponents under 20 points.

How Cleveland Will Try To Win ::

Cleveland is a team with an identity. They locked up two of their stud offensive linemen to long-term extensions in the last week as they commit to this smashmouth identity for the long-term. The Browns currently sport the #1 rushing attack in the league, so it is safe to say their investment is paying off. New England’s defense traditionally tries to be stronger against the pass than the run because they understand that the analytics say that passing is almost always the optimal option for an offense — so they try to encourage their opponents to lean run-heavy. Where they encounter problems is when they face teams who prefer to run and can do it very efficiently. To sum up this paragraph, the design of the Browns offense is the worst-case scenario of an opponent for the Patriots.

The Browns are still without Kareem Hunt, and Nick Chubb’s status is very much up in the air after testing positive for COVID on Tuesday. However, D’Ernest Johnson has more than proven himself when given opportunities and has already had a huge game when given a full workload against the Broncos in Week 8. Baker Mayfield is a great distributor of the ball and has been most effective without Odell Beckham, Jr. on the field — something that makes sense as he makes the right reads and doesn’t feel the need to acquiesce to a specific player to feed them targets. The Browns have a capable, though not elite, stable of receivers and tight ends that Baker does a nice job of spreading the ball around to. The Browns mix up personnel and formations, making it difficult for opponents to plan for and keeping the defense off-balance. Cleveland will lean into their running game to set up play-action passes in the intermediate area as well as some screens and misdirections. It is unlikely that the Browns have any one player with over eight targets and also likely that they have a few players with at least three targets. Cleveland has a better defense, running game, and game manager than New England and will attempt to rely on those three advantages to lead them to victory.

How New England Will Try To Win ::

The Patriots have had their most success in games where they have had success running the ball. If we eliminate their Week 1 loss to the Dolphins (Mac Jones’ debut where the offense was struggling to find itself), the Patriots have scored 24+ points in six of their other eight games. The two games where New England really struggled to move the ball and put up points were against the Bucs and the Saints — a pair of top-5 ranked run defenses. From a macro perspective, this makes a lot of sense. The Patriots have always tried to attack their opponent’s weaknesses and matchups against elite run defenses would naturally force more onto Mac Jones’ plate in the game plan, a tall task considering his receiving corps is very limited from a talent perspective. This is another matchup that fits that description as Cleveland is currently 5th in run defense DVOA. With the Patriots top running backs both recovering from concussions, they could (and likely will) end up throwing the ball at a rate much higher than their season averages.

Likeliest Game flow ::

This game is likely to be very physical and low-scoring. The Browns prefer to build everything they do around their running game and the Patriots defense has been very beatable for offenses besides the Jets and a team quarterbacked by Sam Darnold. The Browns play at the 29th fastest situation-neutral pace and run the ball at the 3rd highest rate in the league. They will be able to maintain that approach in this spot against the Patriots. 

While the Patriots are likely to throw the ball more in this difficult matchup for their running game and due to injury concerns, that may be tougher for them than it initially appears. While the Browns passing defense has struggled at times this year, they have been extremely matchup sensitive with most of their mishaps coming against the Chiefs, Chargers, and Cardinals — teams that have a ton of talent in their receiving corps. The Patriots lack high-end talent on the perimeter making it unlikely they are able to make big plays against a defense that quietly ranks 3rd in coverage grade and 4th in pass-rush grade by PFF. While some “metrics” make it look like this would be a good spot for the New England passing game, the “matchups” and context paints a much darker picture. 

The overall game flow likely looks something like this: 

• Cleveland is able to move the ball while playing slowly and draining the clock, though they may have trouble finishing drives off with touchdowns due to their personnel and New England’s “bend but don’t break” defensive philosophy.
• New England will struggle to move the ball on the ground and through the air but is likely to “find a way” to score points, though it is unlikely to happen in a fantasy-friendly way.
• Neither team is likely to have enough offensive success to force the other team to become significantly more aggressive.
• Both defenses are good enough, and both offenses are low enough on talent, that it is very possible for one or both offenses to put up a very low point total.

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Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• Two run-funnel defenses; one balanced offense (MIN) and one pass-heavy offense (LAC).
• Highly concentrated offenses on both sides.
• Wide range of potential outcomes when it comes to game environment here.
• This leads me to a “correlated pairings, game stack, or bust (fade)” situation, as this game could play to anything from a slugfest to an all-out shootout.
• Both offenses land in the 62-65% red zone touchdown rate range, while both defenses fall in the 62-68% red zone touchdown rate allowed range.
• Both teams rank top 12 in the league in turnover margin, primarily due to the fact that both offenses simply don’t turn the ball over (Kirk Cousins has thrown only two interceptions, Justin Herbert has thrown six but has four games of zero turnovers, while the Chargers defense has forced only 10 turnovers and the Vikings defense has forced only 11).

How minnesota Will Try To Win ::

The Vikings land right in the middle of the league in situation-neutral rush/pass rates and situation-neutral pace of play but carry the second-fastest pace of play when trailing by seven or more points and the sixth fastest overall pace of play. The latter two stats there help to explain why we rarely see the Vikings blow teams out or get blown out themselves, as it highlights the overall identity of this coaching staff and team. Although they would like to remain balanced, they are willing and able to open up the offense if required later in games. They are also largely unwilling to push the envelope if controlling a game. So, what does this all mean to us as DFS players? It means the Vikings harbor game environments that are both useful and bankable! It also means that the Vikings can generate game environments that harbor upside in places we wouldn’t typically think it should come from, as evidenced by their 34-28 win over the Panthers three games ago and their 31-34 loss to the Ravens last week. It also helps to explain why and how the Vikings have been involved in three overtime games over their first eight contests and how games involving the Vikings have an average margin of victory of just 4.375 points (seven of eight games decided by seven points or less and a remarkable five of eight games decided by four points or less), which is pretty crazy to think about.

The balance from this offense comes from their dedication to workhorse running back Dalvin Cook, who has seen at least 71% of the offensive snaps in every healthy game this season. Although not earth-shattering, his typical two to three targets boosts his floor enough for us to regard him as one of the true workhorse running backs remaining in today’s game. Furthermore, Dalvin has seen a minimum of 20 running back opportunities in every healthy game this year, with a max of 31 (which came in one of the three overtime games this Vikings team has played in). That said, the likeliest scenario keeps Dalvin in the 20-22 running back opportunity range when we consider the lack of aggression shown by the Vikings from a “put them away” perspective. The matchup is a good one against an extreme run-funnel Chargers defense, yielding an average 4.315 net-adjusted line yards metric, boosted by the Chargers 29th-ranked standing and held down by the Vikings 28th-ranked standing. Consider Dalvin a rock-solid floor commodity that would need touchdown variance to swing in his favor for ceiling (considering his relative lack of touch ceiling and poor run-blocking grade from the Minnesota offensive line; only two rushing scores on the year). Expect Alexander Mattison to continue his low-to-moderate backup duties behind Cook.

The volume for Kirk Cousins and this passing offense depends heavily on game script, but, as we discussed earlier, the Vikings are more than capable and more than willing to turn things loose should they fall behind substantially. Furthermore, their pass-catching corps is highly concentrated amongst Adam Thielen, Justin Jefferson, tight end Tyler Conklin, and second-year wide receiver KJ Osborn. In fact, behind Osborn, no skill position player on the Vikings has played over a modest 100 offensive snaps (backup tight end Chris Herndon checks in fifth on the team at 98 snaps). The matchup is difficult on paper against the prevent defense of the Chargers, but we saw what happened last week as the secondary struggled through injuries (Devonta Smith went for 5/116/1 on only 17 Jalen Hurts pass attempts). Currently, all of safety Nasir Adderley, cornerback Michael Davis, and cornerback Ryan Smith have yet to practice, while cornerback Asante Samuel, Jr. returned to a full practice following his concussion. Since the pass offense is so concentrated for the Vikings, but we can’t project them for an overwhelming amount of volume in a standard week, the best way to utilize pieces from this side is through correlated pairings or as part of game stacks.

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How los angeles Will Try To Win ::

We’ve seen a macro shift from this offense from early in the year to the previous four to five games, and we’ve seen sporadic game planning and in-game management from offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi, leaving us with a rather wide range of potential outcomes when it comes to “how the Chargers will try to win.” What we do know is this: elevated pass rates and a fast pace of play are really the name of the game for the Chargers this year. We also know their defense is built from the outside in and back-to-front, meaning they invite production from opposing run games and over the short middle of the field. That last bit, the part about being able to mostly eliminate splash plays against, took a recent hit with the multitude of injuries sustained by members of their secondary, so keep an eye on their level of health heading into the weekend.

Running back Austin Ekeler has seen a 58% snap rate or more in every game this season, with half of his games landing at 67% or higher. As such, Ekeler should be considered a touch below a bellcow, with a heavy pass game involvement. This is not news to us or the field, nor should it be a surprise to see his salary all the way up at $7,600. But what we need to understand from Ekeler is that he is rarely going to see enough volume to surpass the rushing bonus (he has hit 100 yards in only one game this season and has not yet surpassed 17 carries in a game), meaning he is highly reliant on both touchdowns and pass game usage for his fantasy utility. The matchup on the ground yields a borderline elite 4.6 net-adjusted line yards metric against the worst-graded run-stopping defense in the league, boosting the overall range of outcomes for Ekeler. The Chargers rarely operate out of 21-personnel, so the pickings are slim behind Ekeler. Expect some combination of Joshua Kelley, Larry Rountree III, and Justin Jackson, if healthy, to work in for change of pace duties.

The passing game has been somewhat of a moving target for the Chargers this season, who started off with Mike Williams in a prototypical “X” wide receiver role but have since shifted him back to primarily a deep threat. Austin Ekeler’s pass game involvement has also been all over the place, with a standard range of outcomes of five to nine looks but one game of zero targets (Week 1), one game of three targets (last week), and one game of 10 targets (Week 8). There is nothing in the game environments or underlying metrics that hints at a rationale behind the wide range of usage. Finally, Keenan Allen has scored double-digit fantasy points in every game played this season but has gone for more than 20 fantasy points just twice (Week 1 and last week – both 13 target games), with a season-high of 25.4 fantasy points. The matchup sets up best for Ekeler and Mike Williams (in his shifted role), but volume speaks, and there is the very real possibility it is Keenan that soaks up the volume in certain game environments. Finally, the tight end position gets ever murkier on this team with the seemingly out of nowhere Week 9 snap rate from Stephen Anderson, who joined Jared Cook and Donald Par-Ham (per his Twitter) in a near-even, three-way split in snaps.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

Considering all the pieces here, we’re likeliest to see a closely contested battle between two teams that have largely underperformed from a wins-losses perspective. The fact that each defense falls in the middle of the pack in red zone touchdown rate allowed, each offense falls in the middle of the pack in red zone touchdown rate, each defense has struggled to generate turnovers, and each offense doesn’t give the ball away at a high rate, we’re likely to see a game where points are able to pile up (Vegas agrees, with a current game total of 53.0). The Chargers also like to push the pace on offense, checking in with the league’s fourth-highest situation-neutral pace of play and third-highest overall pace of play.

We know the Chargers will be passing, and we know the Vikings will turn to the pass if needed, creating a situation where game stacks and correlated pairings of pieces from each passing offense create a high upside, high leverage situation.

If the Vikings are able to run their balanced offense deeper into the game (which would come in the form of a slugfest, where the Chargers are limited to field goals or aren’t able to sustain drives through variant acts, like turnovers, special team errors, or untimely drops), this game could also turn into a slugfest, as the Vikings aren’t likely to push the envelope unless forced to do so. This would create a game environment best suited to Dalvin Cook and Keenan Allen, as we saw with the Chargers last week.

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Game Overview ::

By papy324 >>

• This game is likely to have a blowout game flow.
• The entire Panthers offense will be hampered by PJ Walker.
• CMC’s playing time is uncertain.
• The Cardinals passing game is spread out, even if Deandre Hopkins sits.
• James Conner could end up chalk, for good reason.
• The Cardinals defense is a strong play if you can afford them.

How carolina Will Try To Win ::

The Panthers come into Week 10 having posted a below-average 4-5 record through the first nine weeks of the season. Their record feels even worse because the Panthers started in a dominant 3-0 fashion, having benefited from playing the Jets and Texans in two of their first three games. Since then, they’ve gone 1-5, with their lone win coming against the Falcons, who, well, play Falcons football. Making matters worse, the Panthers just lost Sam Darnold and are fresh off a 24-6 manhandling at the hands of the Patriots.

Matt Rhule is in a tough spot. His team has been searching for an identity ever since losing their best player (Christian McCafferty). Rhule wants to be able to ride CMC to victory, but as Rhule pointed out during one of his press conferences last week, CMC has barely played the past two seasons. Rhule is rightly afraid to give CMC his former workload and lose him again for an extended period. The Panthers offense has been so centered on CMC, they almost need to figure out how they want to play again now that he is back, and figure out a way to do that while keeping him healthy. That’s a lot of moving parts to put together on the fly.  This week they draw an Arizona team that is stifling against the pass (2^nd in DVOA) and the run (7^th in DVOA). The Cards defense has been legitimately good, and since they don’t present a clear path of least resistance, expect Rhule to continue to “feel out,” how he wants to use CMC while responding to game flow.

How arizona Will Try To Win ::

The 8-1 Cardinals come into this game in impressive form. Last week, led by Colt McCoy, and without their two primary WRs, and having to deal with Chase Edmonds going down on the first play, the Cards still managed to adapt their offense enough to score 31 points against a non-pushover 49ers defense. That feat is made more impressive by the fact that the game was in San Francisco. What type of a thrashing would the 49ers have received if the Cards had any of their starting weapons? 

The Cards play fast (8^th situational neutral pace) but slow down when winning (17^th in pace when ahead). Kliff Kingsbury is coming into his own as a head coach and has molded this offense into an efficient machine, capable of taking a lead and securing the win. Early reports indicate that Kyler Murray is expected to play, and if that’s the case we can expect the Cards offense to look more normal than it did last week. The Panthers defense has been strong against the pass (4^th in DVOA) but much more susceptible on the ground (19^th in DOVA), creating a run funnel defense. Kingsbury’s offense has been adaptable this year, and the matchup should tilt them towards the ground. Throw in the health concerns of the Cards pass-catching RB/QB/WRs, and we start to see a clear case for trying to win on the ground. Expect Kingsbury to be happy to win running the ball, and with defense, but being willing to open things up if the game requires.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

This game has a lowish total of 44.5. The reason is that only one team is expected to do much scoring. The double-digit spread means that Vegas expects this one to be a blowout, and there is every reason to believe the prognosticators are correct. The 8-1 Cards just looked great against a reasonable team, playing what amounted to their second-string skill players. Now they are at home, against a weaker opponent, with their franchise QB back under center. The most likely game flow in this one is the Cards pull away easily, with a blowout being entirely possible.

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Game Overview ::

By papy324 >>

• Both coaches want to call a run-oriented game plan.
• Both backfields are timeshares.
• The Broncos play slowly in all circumstances.
• There isn’t a lot to love from a DFS standpoint in this one.

How philadelphia Will Try To Win ::

The 3-6 Eagles come into Week 10 having seen their faint playoff hopes all but end after losing a competitive game against a good Chargers team. Nick Sirianni is building an Eagles squad that feels a year or two away from being good. They have a lot of pieces but they are weak on defense (24^th in DVOA overall) and need Jalen Hurts to take another step forward. The Eagles have been playing fast (2^nd in situational neutral pace) but slowing way down (30^th in place when winning) if they’re ahead. The Eagles massive gap in pace means their games have a very different feel depending on game flow. 

The Broncos defense has been attackable on the ground (23^rd in DVOA), middling through the air (15^th in DVOA), and just traded away Von Miller. The Eagles have miraculously held Jalen Hurts to 14/17 attempts in their last two games. At first, it looked like it was because of game flow but it now looks like it was by design. Sirianni seems to believe the best way to win games with Hurts under center is to try and play as Harbaugh did in Lamar Jackson’s early years. That might be his best shot this season but Hurts will have to improve as a passer (much as Jackson did) if this team is going to take the next step. Expect the Eagles to come out playing at warp speed, while attacking with a creative running game where Hurts is essentially a hybrid RB/QB. The Eagles will keep their foot on the gas unless they take a lead, at which point they’ll be happy to fall on the ball.

How denver Will Try To Win ::

The 5-4 Broncos are coming off two straight wins against the NFC East, having knocked off the Football Team and Cowboys. The AFC West is suddenly a very competitive division, with all four teams sitting at five wins. This feels like a game the Broncos must win — at home against a 3-6 team — if they want to be the ones who emerge from the pack. The Broncos play slow (31^st situational neutral pace), stay slow when winning (29^th in pace when ahead), and barely speed up when losing (24^th in pace when trailing). The Broncos move slow no matter what is happening in the game, and play like a team that is desperately trying to hide their QB.  Their coaching staff hasn’t seemed to figure out that Bridgewater is more average than bad. This isn’t likely to be the week the light bulb turns on.

The Eagles are attackable through the air (21^st in DVOA), as well as on the ground (20^th in DVOA), and the Broncos weren’t going to be tilted away from how “they play” anyway. Bridgewater was held under 30 attempts in both Broncos wins the past two weeks. Expect the same approach in this one, as the Broncos coaching staff will be happy to “hide” Bridgewater while trying to win with the ground game and defense.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

This game has a lowish 45 point total, mostly because of how the Broncos want to play. The Broncos will try to suck the air out of this game, and the Eagles will be happy to slow it down if they are ahead, creating a lot of paths to a low-scoring contest. Neither team wants to throw, and there is a realistic chance both teams’ QBs finish below 25 attempts. The one hope for this game showing signs of life is that both defenses are vulnerable, and both offenses have enough weapons to take advantage.  The most likely game flow here is both sides run the ball effectively, creating long, time-consuming drives. If a few of those drives end in FGs instead of TDs, this game has paths to go way under.

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Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• Both Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson are due back for teams that largely struggled in their absences.
• The Packers rank dead last in overall pace of play, and the Seahawks rank dead last in plays per game.
• Could see as little as 115-120 total offensive plays in this one, which would be about 10-15 fewer than the NFL average.
• That said, each of these teams has the talent and downfield chops to turn this one into a surprise shootout.
• The Seahawks rank 19^th in drive success rate allowed on defense and the Packers rank 28^th but while the Seahawks really crackdown in the red zone (fifth-ranked red zone touchdown rate allowed at just 48.39%), the Packers struggle in that area (31^st-ranked 76.00%).

How seattle Will Try To Win ::

The Seahawks remain a team that plays to win games in the fourth quarter. As such, we can rarely expect Seattle to push the pace, tempo, and flow unless forced to do so. During the first four weeks of the season, when starting quarterback Russell Wilson was healthy and starting, Seattle ran a balanced offense with a 57% situation-neutral pass rate and moderate pace of play (middle of the league), and that includes the first two weeks of the season where they attempted to play with tempo and elevated pass rates. Overall, the combination of Russel Wilson and Geno Smith holds a season-high of just 32 pass attempts, further hinting at how the Seahawks would like to try and win games. Although they don’t attempt a ton of passes, this offense is adept at attacking downfield when they do throw, typically through elevated play-action rates and two primary pass-catchers that are highly capable downfield. Their 8.6 yards per pass attempt rank third in the league behind only Arizona and Cincinnati. Chris Carson was also designated for return this week, opening his 21-day practice window. He has yet to be fully activated, but hopes are that he can play this week after missing every game since Week 4. 

Speaking of Carson, should he return, we should expect him to return to a “modified lead back” role. He played like a true lead back in the first two weeks of the season before experiencing discomfort in his neck, which relegated him to 43% and 45% snap rates over the subsequent two games. In all, I would expect somewhere in the range of 45-55% snap rate and opportunity share if he returns to game action, backed up by Alex Collins (limited in each practice this week so far), Rashaad Penny, and Travis Homer. On top of the likely split backfield, the Seahawks have targeted the running back position at the third-lowest rate in the league through nine weeks (14%). Should Carson miss again, expect the remaining trio of Collins, Penny, and Homer to split work depending on game flow. This is a messy situation as far as workload goes, but the matchup is a good one, yielding an above-average 4.49 net-adjusted line yards metric against a run-funnel Packers defense.

The most interesting pieces from this side of the game come from the Seattle pass attack, which holds an extremely narrow distribution of targets. Since Seattle targets running backs and tight ends below the league average (18% and 20%, respectively), the wide receivers do most of the damage. And since the Seahawks run two-wide sets at an above-average rate, we’re left with an offense that feeds 55.6% of the total targets to just two players: DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. As was noted by JM in the Tuesday training session, Metcalf typically carries a tighter range of outcomes with a lower ceiling, while Lockett typically carries a wide range of outcomes and higher ceiling (as evidenced by his three games this season of 29 or more fantasy points and four games in single digits). Neither “starting” tight ends have seen more than five targets in a game this season, keeping both Gerald Everett and Will Dissly thin bets. The heavy zone nature of the Packers defense is built to limit downfield work, but the injuries to the secondary and complex scheme have left the opening for splash plays, primarily due to communication issues on the back end.

How green bay Will Try To Win ::

The Packers run the league’s slowest offense, play with a prevent-defense scheme, and operate a mid-range offense as far as efficiency is concerned (23^rd-ranked drive success rate and 16^th-ranked points per drive value). What this team is truly trying to do is control games through time of possession (eighth-ranked average time of possession) and methodically grind out wins. There isn’t much else to say regarding the macro makeup of this offense that we don’t all already know.

The emergence of running back AJ Dillon, paired with only a moderate pass game role, has dented the weekly range of outcomes of starter Aaron Jones (three games in single-digit scoring and only three games of 20 fantasy points or more). The relative strength of the offensive line, even through a multitude of injuries and moving pieces, keeps this matchup above average, checking in at a 4.39 net-adjusted line yards metric. Aaron Jones’ standard range of outcomes with respect to running back opportunities should be considered 18-22, with AJ Dillon on hand to soak up 12-16 of his own. Seattle has allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing backfields this season, but the split workload between the two makes each highly reliant on efficiency and touchdowns to return fantasy-viable scores.

Davante Adams checks in second in the league in team target market share (30.1%) and targets per game (11.4), behind only Cooper Kupp in each category. Behind Adams, expect Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Allen Lazard, and Randall Cobb to all fill situational roles at the wide receiver position. Tight ends Marcedes Lewis (primarily a run-blocker), Josiah Deguara, and Dominique Dafney should split snaps in an upside-limiting fashion. Consider MVS a high ceiling, low floor option in his downfield role (19.3 aDOT!!!), while Lazard, Cobb, and all tight ends carry low floors and low-to-moderate ceilings. The Seahawks rank 14^th in the league in completion rate allowed and 15^th in yards allowed per completion, so the matchup should be considered a neutral one.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

The likeliest game flow involves a slow-paced, grind-it-out style of game, with each team aiming to win late. Consider the fact that the Aaron Rodgers-led Packers team scored between 24 and 27 points in five consecutive games prior to his missed contest on the COVID list. Green Bay is not going out there trying to blow teams away; they are trying to methodically win games and preserve the health of an aging offense. That said, this is still Aaron Rodgers and this is still a team with the offensive pieces to duke it out with the best of them if the need is there. That need is likeliest to come through the form of splash plays against, and since Seattle doesn’t pass often, but when they do they target the deep areas of the field, it is a viable tributary outcome that many will neglect this week. I am leaving it out of a full tributary writeup due to the lower likelihood of it transpiring here, but it is most definitely something to think about if building for MME this week. Theoretically, Tyler Lockett, DK Metcalf, Davante Adams, or Aaron Jones can hit as a one-off, but their chances of doing so relate more closely to the game environment.

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DFS+ Interpretation ::