Jaguars (

18.75) at
Colts (

29.25)

Game Overview ::

By mjohnson86 >>

• Jacksonville enters this game on an all-time high after their huge upset of the Bills in Week 9, while Indianapolis is coming off a 10-day rest after playing last Thursday night.
• The Colts are quietly one of the top scoring offenses in the league, while the Jaguars have scored 20 points only three times this year.
• Most people are likely going to overrate the Jaguars defense after their great showing last week, but the Colts are the type of offense they really struggle with.

How jacksonville Will Try To Win ::

The Jaguars ran the ball 20+ times with Carlos Hyde in Week 8, so it is safe to say that they are committed to a conservative, run-based approach. The possible return of James Robinson would only serve to increase the chances of a heavy dose of runs in this spot. The problem Jacksonville will face this week is a Colts run defense headed by Darius Leonard that ranks 2nd in run defense DVOA. They are a defense built on speed and making their opponents one-dimensional by eliminating the running game and then making plays from their zone coverages when opponents face long down and distance situations. Jacksonville will likely lean into the run as they will try to “keep the formula” that gave them a big win last week, but that is going to make it unlikely they score points early in this game.

Even in the passing game, Jacksonville has become much more conservative in their approach as the season has progressed. Marvin Jones, the Jaguars’ top downfield threat, has not topped 40 receiving yards in four of his last five games as the Jaguars have instead funneled targets to the underneath portions of the field. Trevor Lawrence also left Week 9 with an ankle injury, so Jacksonville will do what they can to limit his need to run around and extend plays — further pushing the Jaguars to short, quick passes when they turn to the air.

How indianapolis Will Try To Win ::

Much has been made of the Jaguars’ defense shutting down the high-powered Bills offense. It was not something that many people saw coming, as the Bills are notoriously a great passing offense, and Jacksonville ranks 32nd in the NFL in pass defense DVOA. One thing I like to look at, however, is themes in how teams perform in certain matchups. Diving deeper into the Jacksonville defense, the teams with which they have had the most trouble are teams that are balanced and have formidable running attacks, and/or will stay committed to the run. The Cardinals, Titans, and Seahawks all went for 31+ points against the Jaguars, while Jacksonville surrendered only 22 points per game in their other five games. All three of those offenses I mentioned have top-10 yards per carry averages and/or top-10 situation-neutral run rates.

That context is vital to our exploration of this game because the natural inclination of a lot of people will likely be that the Jaguars defense has found its footing, and a team with a rookie QB and rookie head coach may be “figuring it out” halfway through the season. The reality is that the Jaguars are still not very good from a personnel standpoint and their success last week (and in some other spots this year) had more to do with their opponent being very predictable and allowing them to adjust to take something away without being punished for it. This will not be the case with the Colts. Jonathan Taylor is on an incredible run, and the Colts offensive line has been dominating of late. Michael Pittman has emerged as an “alpha” wide receiver, and Carson Wentz, despite a few head-scratching plays against tough competition, is playing at a high level in games against mediocre to poor opponents. The Colts have scored 30+ points in four consecutive games and 24+ points in seven of nine games on the year. The Jaguars will not be able to sell out to stop one thing in this matchup, and the Colts’ formidable rushing attack will be able to dominate the line of scrimmage or leave Jacksonville exposed on the back end if they allocate more resources to slowing down the run game. This is a classic letdown spot for the Jaguars, and their Week 9 win will only serve to keep the Colts from overlooking them.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

Indianapolis is likely going to score points early and steadily throughout this game as their balanced attack will allow them to sustain drives. Jacksonville’s conservative approach and low likelihood of success in the run game make it unlikely that they will score many first-half points. Also, due to the unlikely need for the Colts to force things, it is unlikely Carson Wentz hands the Jaguars any gifts like he has done a few times this season and like Josh Allen did a couple of times last week.

The Colts are 32nd (dead last) in the NFL in situation-neutral pace of play which means that the first half of this game likely looks like this: long Colts drives that take a lot of time off the clock, and short Jaguars drives that also keep the clock running. There is a chance that the Colts make some explosive plays which would turn things up some, but either way, it is likely to be a game of relatively limited possessions in the early going. As the game wears on, the Jaguars will have to become more aggressive, but that aggression looks very different for them than it does for most teams. Jacksonville’s “aggressive” is just spreading the field a bit more and throwing more often but primarily doing it in the short area. These throws usually have a high completion percentage and keep the clock moving, similar to a run-heavy attack. Simply put, this game will likely move quickly but has a chance for a lot of points due to tactical mismatches that the Colts have on both sides of the ball.

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DFS+ Interpretation ::