Hawks (

23) at
Packers (

26)

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• Both Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson are due back for teams that largely struggled in their absences.
• The Packers rank dead last in overall pace of play, and the Seahawks rank dead last in plays per game.
• Could see as little as 115-120 total offensive plays in this one, which would be about 10-15 fewer than the NFL average.
• That said, each of these teams has the talent and downfield chops to turn this one into a surprise shootout.
• The Seahawks rank 19^th in drive success rate allowed on defense and the Packers rank 28^th but while the Seahawks really crackdown in the red zone (fifth-ranked red zone touchdown rate allowed at just 48.39%), the Packers struggle in that area (31^st-ranked 76.00%).

How seattle Will Try To Win ::

The Seahawks remain a team that plays to win games in the fourth quarter. As such, we can rarely expect Seattle to push the pace, tempo, and flow unless forced to do so. During the first four weeks of the season, when starting quarterback Russell Wilson was healthy and starting, Seattle ran a balanced offense with a 57% situation-neutral pass rate and moderate pace of play (middle of the league), and that includes the first two weeks of the season where they attempted to play with tempo and elevated pass rates. Overall, the combination of Russel Wilson and Geno Smith holds a season-high of just 32 pass attempts, further hinting at how the Seahawks would like to try and win games. Although they don’t attempt a ton of passes, this offense is adept at attacking downfield when they do throw, typically through elevated play-action rates and two primary pass-catchers that are highly capable downfield. Their 8.6 yards per pass attempt rank third in the league behind only Arizona and Cincinnati. Chris Carson was also designated for return this week, opening his 21-day practice window. He has yet to be fully activated, but hopes are that he can play this week after missing every game since Week 4. 

Speaking of Carson, should he return, we should expect him to return to a “modified lead back” role. He played like a true lead back in the first two weeks of the season before experiencing discomfort in his neck, which relegated him to 43% and 45% snap rates over the subsequent two games. In all, I would expect somewhere in the range of 45-55% snap rate and opportunity share if he returns to game action, backed up by Alex Collins (limited in each practice this week so far), Rashaad Penny, and Travis Homer. On top of the likely split backfield, the Seahawks have targeted the running back position at the third-lowest rate in the league through nine weeks (14%). Should Carson miss again, expect the remaining trio of Collins, Penny, and Homer to split work depending on game flow. This is a messy situation as far as workload goes, but the matchup is a good one, yielding an above-average 4.49 net-adjusted line yards metric against a run-funnel Packers defense.

The most interesting pieces from this side of the game come from the Seattle pass attack, which holds an extremely narrow distribution of targets. Since Seattle targets running backs and tight ends below the league average (18% and 20%, respectively), the wide receivers do most of the damage. And since the Seahawks run two-wide sets at an above-average rate, we’re left with an offense that feeds 55.6% of the total targets to just two players: DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. As was noted by JM in the Tuesday training session, Metcalf typically carries a tighter range of outcomes with a lower ceiling, while Lockett typically carries a wide range of outcomes and higher ceiling (as evidenced by his three games this season of 29 or more fantasy points and four games in single digits). Neither “starting” tight ends have seen more than five targets in a game this season, keeping both Gerald Everett and Will Dissly thin bets. The heavy zone nature of the Packers defense is built to limit downfield work, but the injuries to the secondary and complex scheme have left the opening for splash plays, primarily due to communication issues on the back end.

How green bay Will Try To Win ::

The Packers run the league’s slowest offense, play with a prevent-defense scheme, and operate a mid-range offense as far as efficiency is concerned (23^rd-ranked drive success rate and 16^th-ranked points per drive value). What this team is truly trying to do is control games through time of possession (eighth-ranked average time of possession) and methodically grind out wins. There isn’t much else to say regarding the macro makeup of this offense that we don’t all already know.

The emergence of running back AJ Dillon, paired with only a moderate pass game role, has dented the weekly range of outcomes of starter Aaron Jones (three games in single-digit scoring and only three games of 20 fantasy points or more). The relative strength of the offensive line, even through a multitude of injuries and moving pieces, keeps this matchup above average, checking in at a 4.39 net-adjusted line yards metric. Aaron Jones’ standard range of outcomes with respect to running back opportunities should be considered 18-22, with AJ Dillon on hand to soak up 12-16 of his own. Seattle has allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing backfields this season, but the split workload between the two makes each highly reliant on efficiency and touchdowns to return fantasy-viable scores.

Davante Adams checks in second in the league in team target market share (30.1%) and targets per game (11.4), behind only Cooper Kupp in each category. Behind Adams, expect Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Allen Lazard, and Randall Cobb to all fill situational roles at the wide receiver position. Tight ends Marcedes Lewis (primarily a run-blocker), Josiah Deguara, and Dominique Dafney should split snaps in an upside-limiting fashion. Consider MVS a high ceiling, low floor option in his downfield role (19.3 aDOT!!!), while Lazard, Cobb, and all tight ends carry low floors and low-to-moderate ceilings. The Seahawks rank 14^th in the league in completion rate allowed and 15^th in yards allowed per completion, so the matchup should be considered a neutral one.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

The likeliest game flow involves a slow-paced, grind-it-out style of game, with each team aiming to win late. Consider the fact that the Aaron Rodgers-led Packers team scored between 24 and 27 points in five consecutive games prior to his missed contest on the COVID list. Green Bay is not going out there trying to blow teams away; they are trying to methodically win games and preserve the health of an aging offense. That said, this is still Aaron Rodgers and this is still a team with the offensive pieces to duke it out with the best of them if the need is there. That need is likeliest to come through the form of splash plays against, and since Seattle doesn’t pass often, but when they do they target the deep areas of the field, it is a viable tributary outcome that many will neglect this week. I am leaving it out of a full tributary writeup due to the lower likelihood of it transpiring here, but it is most definitely something to think about if building for MME this week. Theoretically, Tyler Lockett, DK Metcalf, Davante Adams, or Aaron Jones can hit as a one-off, but their chances of doing so relate more closely to the game environment.

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