Lions (

17.5) at
Steelers (

23)

Game Overview ::

By mjohnson86 >>

• Unpredictable quarterback play and personnel deficiencies make projecting this game very difficult.
• Detroit is coming off a bye and has been playing hard and competing every week, despite their poor record.
• Pittsburgh is playing on a short week after winning a game they were lucky to escape from.
• Neither team is likely to attack consistently downfield, making this game about winning the turnover battle and sustaining drives.

How Detroit Will Try To Win ::

To the Lions’ credit, they have been competitive and played very hard for most of the season despite their lack of wins. Now they are in a decent spot to try and get their first win as they are rested coming off their bye week and playing a team on short rest. The style that Detroit uses to stay competitive is making the game “ugly” and turning it into a dog fight by slowing tempo and shortening the game. Their opponent this week plays right into that strategy as a team that has a solid 5-3 record but has not beaten anyone by more than one possession. 

Detroit’s offensive philosophy will likely focus on a spread running attack and short-area passing as that is where their personnel strengths lie and also where Pittsburgh is best attacked. The Steelers have PFF’s #5 graded pass rush and the 8th ranked run defense by DVOA. The combination of those factors, along with Detroit’s 25th graded pass-blocking unit, make it likely that the Lions will use short, quick passes to try to move the ball. They will likely have some success running the ball through volume, but in order to sustain drives and score points, they will have to move the ball through the air. Also, Jamaal Williams’ availability is looking very much in doubt and the Lions try to avoid overworking D’Andre Swift. If Williams misses, I would expect a higher pass rate rather than giving more carries to Swift or a backup. Due to the mismatch at the line of scrimmage and lack of downfield perimeter threats, the Lions will not want Jared Goff to be holding onto the ball very long. Pittsburgh has a high-end pass rush that ranks 3rd in the NFL in pressure rate and 6th in sacks per game. Detroit will funnel the ball to their best playmakers — D’Andre Swift and TJ Hockenson — in the short areas of the field and try to get them isolated in space or mismatches. The greatest concern is if their lack of downfield threats will allow Pittsburgh to clamp down on those areas and shut them down altogether.

How PITTSburgh Will Try To Win ::

The Steelers survived a rocky start to their season and have rattled off four straight wins to move within a game of the division lead. While it hasn’t always been pretty, they have found ways to win close games as all of their wins have been in one-score games. After narrowly escaping a furious 4th quarter comeback by the Bears on Monday night, Pittsburgh now hosts a winless Lions team that is coming off a bye. This is an important game for the Steelers to take care of business as seven of their eight games after this week are against teams who currently have a winning record. With such a tough schedule ahead of them, they can’t afford a setback on what *should* be a “gimme”. 

Injuries among skill players continue to narrow the target distribution for the Steelers. Already down JuJu Smith-Schuster, they now appear to have lost Chase Claypool for the next couple of weeks at least — a loss that can not be understated from an X’s and O’s standpoint. Claypool is a dynamic playmaker who forces defenses to stretch the field and open up space underneath, something that is critical for Pittsburgh as Ben Roethlisberger doesn’t threaten defenses the way he once did. Big Ben ranks 33rd out of 36 qualifying quarterbacks in average depth of target, per PFF, and Claypool leads the Steelers in percentage of targets 20+ yards downfield. The Steelers offensive line is PFF’s 29th graded run-blocking unit which has forced Najee Harris to churn out tough yards consistently to keep the run game working. Detroit is likely to stack the box and load up the short areas of the passing game with defenders and dare Ben to beat them over the top. Pittsburgh will funnel short-area touches to Najee Harris and Diontae Johnson, with their tight ends and replacement wide receivers receiving sporadic work as well.

Likeliest Game flow ::

Detroit’s approach will be predictable and allow the Steelers defense to be very aggressive early on. Detroit will need to focus on escaping first-half possessions without sacks and turnovers, essentially just surviving rather than attacking. Pittsburgh, on the other hand, will likely have more success due to their more talented skill positions and Detroit’s weak defense. While both offenses will prefer to attack in the shorter area of the field, if Detroit dares Pittsburgh to go downfield and the Steelers are successful doing so it could open the flood gates on this game very quickly. While Pittsburgh has yet to truly rout anyone, Detroit is by far the worst team they have faced this year. The “likeliest game flow” is something close to what is implied by the Vegas spread, but there is a lot of room for upside on that projection if things break right.

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DFS+ Interpretation ::