Bills (

30.75) at
Jets (

17.75)

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• The Jets allow the most yards per game in the league at over 408 yards; the Bills rank eighth on offense at 390.1 per game.
• The Jets rank 24^th in the league in total offense per game at 328.9 yards; the Bills rank first in total yards allowed per game at 262.6.
• The heavy Cover-3 defensive alignment rate seen from the Jets is likeliest to benefit Emmanuel Sanders deep and Cole Beasley over the intermediate middle of the field.
• The Bills backfield becomes extremely interesting if Zack Moss misses this contest. 

How buffalo Will Try To Win ::

I made a joke on Twitter about how weird it is that each of Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen has been starting NFL quarterbacks for about four years and that it took the league that long to realize neither can pass against 2-High defensive alignments. Although meant as a tongue-in-cheek joke, last week’s offensive performance from the Bills was Maui-Wowy levels of bad. The good news is the Bills now get an opponent ranked 31st in defensive DVOA against the run, 30th against the pass, and surrender the most opponent yards per game at 408.1.

It’s hard to be poor against opposing backfields both on the ground and through the air, but that is exactly what we have seen from the Jets this season. They have surrendered the most fantasy points per game to opposing backfields by a large margin (40.6 per game, second-worst are the Lions at 31.2), including a startling 4.74 yards per carry, 79 targets (second-most in the league), and 16 (!!!) total touchdowns through eight games. Although thought of as a pass-first offense (and rightfully so, for the most part), the combination of Zack Moss and Devin Singletary has combined for 25.3 running back opportunities per game since Week 2, with a healthy 47 targets over that same time (6.71 per game). All of that lead-in was meant to highlight how valuable this backfield might be should one member miss a contest, as 25.3 opportunities including 6.71 targets is a workload that rivals the new age workhorse. Zack Moss picked up a concussion in Week 9 and got a limited session in on Thursday in a non-contact jersey. He is still in the concussion protocol and, unless cleared, would leave a large portion of this backfield to Devin Singletary. Should he return, disregard this entire segment and consider this backfield a gross timeshare with no usable pieces.

We know what we’re getting from this passing game. Emmanuel Sanders is on the field the most as the Swiss Army knife and carries a deep aDOT, capable of playing all receiver positions on the field. Stefon Diggs operates as the “one” but typically is not needed for or fed elite volume. Cole Beasley is the safety valve needed for heavy volume when teams force this passing attack shallow. The return of tight end Dawson Knox puts an end to the elevated snap rates for arguably the top WR4 in the league in Gabriel Davis. Knox is in a route on 89% of the pass plays he is on the field for and carries a solid-for-a-tight-end 8.5 aDOT, but has seen over just five targets only once all season. The running backs typically combine for six to eight targets. Finally, Josh Allen has thrown for multiple touchdowns in every game but two this season (Week 1 in a loss to Pittsburgh and last week when the Bills failed to score a touchdown) and has hit at least 42 pass attempts each of the past three games. The Jets rank 29th in the league in completion rate allowed (68.73%) and 20th in yards allowed per completion (11.0), meaning we shouldn’t expect much in the way to slow this Bills passing attack down this week.

How new york Will Try To Win ::

The Jets appear likely to get number one receiver Corey Davis back this week, but that about ends the positives. The gun-slinging ways of Zach Wilson have dried up with the team forced to start Mike White at quarterback, whose 5.5 intended air yards per pass attempt as the starter rank dead last in the league, amongst qualified quarterbacks (for comparison sake, Zach Wilson ranks sixth in the NFL at 8.7). The vast majority of the production under White has come through the running backs and tight ends, and the team will now be without starting tight end Tyler Kroft. This week, the Jets take on a defense allowing the fewest total yards per game, the fewest points per game, and the fewest pass yards per game.

The backfield has been a relatively tight 70/30 split as far as both snap rate and opportunities go in the absence of Tevin Coleman, who is expected to return this week following three missed games plus the bye. I’d expect all three of Michael Carter, Ty Johnson, and Coleman to be involved moving forward, with Carter likely leading the way in snap rate and opportunities. A tight 50/30/20 split amongst those three is likeliest here. Although the running backs hold the most utility on this offense with Mike White under center, their opponent could not be worse this week for expected running back production. The Bills have ceded only 41 targets to opposing backfields (fourth-lowest in the league), have given up only 518 rush yards to opposing backfields (fewest in the league), and have surrendered only four total touchdowns to opposing backfields this year. The pure matchup yields a disgusting 3.63 net-adjusted line yards metric, which is one of the lowest values you will see all year.

With Corey Davis coming back and Tyler Kroft moved to the IR, expect the four primary pass-catchers for this one to be Davis, Jamison Crowder, rookie Elijah Moore, and tight end Ryan Griffin. Corey Davis’ 13.6 aDOT came exclusively with Zach Wilson at quarterback, but he should be the primary downfield threat. Elijah Moore has seen snaps all over the formation and carries an intermediate aDOT of 11.5, which has largely held true with White tossing the ball. Jamison Crowder works almost exclusively from the slot and is the pass-catcher likeliest to find success here. Finally, Ryan Griffin’s modest 5.8 aDOT and 78% route participation rate (which is likely to grow a bit here) keeps his ceiling rather thin but comes with a solid price-considered floor (which means next to nothing to us, to be honest). Add it all together, and the fantasy prospectus of this passing attack leaves little room for upside.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

The likeliest game flow here is one of the more sure-thing scenarios we have seen in some time, with the Bills so clearly the better team in all areas of the field. Expect their defense to crack down on the Jets offense while little stands in the way of Josh Allen and their vaunted passing attack this week. Heck, even the run game should get going. Because of this, we’re going to want to pick and choose our exposure in a game likely to be extremely lopsided. I’m able to confidently say the Jets should have a tougher time than usual (and that’s saying a lot already) moving the ball here because their likeliest path to do so involves the running backs, when the Bills have ceded the fourth-fewest targets to opposing backfields and the fewest fantasy points against per game.

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