Kickoff Sunday, Sep 25th 4:25pm Eastern

Packers (
20.5) at

Bucs (
21.5)

Over/Under 42.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Packers Run D
30th DVOA/11th Yards allowed per carry
Buccaneers Run O
23rd DVOA/26th Yards per carry
Packers Pass D
20th DVOA/10th Yards allowed per pass
Buccaneers Pass O
20th DVOA/1st Yards per pass
Buccaneers Run D
15th DVOA/3rd Yards allowed per carry
Packers Run O
4th DVOA/18th Yards per carry
Buccaneers Pass D
1st DVOA/21st Yards allowed per pass
Packers Pass O
10th DVOA/8th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson>>
  • Offensively, these teams are a shell of who they have been in recent years.
  • Offseason losses and accumulating injuries have left these aging quarterbacks struggling to keep their team’s heads above water.
  • Several factors could lead to this game being ugly, including the strength of defenses, offensive personnel issues, and conservative strategies of both teams.
  • While this game’s over/under of 41.5 points may seem low, the four games these teams have played have averaged 29.5 total points per game, with no games over 37 points.

How green bay Will Try To Win ::

Green Bay’s offense looked much better on Sunday Night Football against the Bears than they had in Week 1 but they were playing a bottom-tier Bears team so it’s hard to take too much from that one game. The Packers did increase their usage of their running backs (Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon) with a lot of success. This is something that Aaron Rodgers has spoken about doing now that Davante Adams is gone – building their offense around Jones and Dillon, as they are the two best playmakers the team has at this point. The result of that effort in Week 2 was the duo being used on 39 of the Packers 66 offensive plays, a whopping 59%. From a tempo standpoint, the Packers are continuing their trend of recent years by bleeding the play clock regularly and playing at the second slowest pace of play in the NFL through two weeks.

Week 3 will present a huge challenge to the Packers, as they go on the road to face a Bucs defense that has given up 13 total points through two weeks against the Cowboys and Saints. The Bucs defense has been a “pass funnel” in recent years due to their strong front seven being stout against the run, and they once again rank top-3 in the NFL in yards per carry allowed through two weeks. Complicating things more for the Packers, the Bucs pass defense is also playing at an elite level. They rank 1st in the NFL in pass defense DVOA, per Football Outsiders, and 1st in the league in PFF coverage grade.

Honestly, I’m not sure what the Packers can or will do in this game to have offensive success. They are built to rely on their running backs, but it seems highly unlikely that they will be able to do that in this matchup, and they lack explosive weapons on the perimeter who can win matchups against such a good coverage unit. I would expect the Packers to continue playing at a methodical pace and just try to keep things close in the hopes that the offensive issues of the Bucs can give them some short fields to build a lead and win a field goal contest.

How tampa bay Will Try To Win ::

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By LexMiraglia10 >>

Tom Brady:

  • Slow start for Brady in 2022 with new & injured weapons against strong defenses, finishing W1 & W2 with just 212:1:1 and 190:1:0
  • Brady scored multiple TDs in 15/19 games in 2021
  • Brady passed for 250+ yds in 14/19 games (10/19 over 300yds)
  • 2022 QBs vs GB: Cousins (277:2) // Fields (70:0:1, 20:1)
  • GB has allowed the 5th fewest completed air yds
  • GB allowed the 9th fewest yds in 2021, while Brady led the NFL in passing yds
  • Tampa Brady vs GB: 166:2:0 // 280:3:3
  • #1 WR Evans is suspended this week

TB WRs:

  • WRs with tg for TB in 2022: Evans (11) // Gage (8) // Perriman (8) // Miller (8) // Julio (5) // Godwin (3)
  • WRs vs GB: Jefferson (9:184:2), Thielen (3:36) // E St. Brown (2:39)
  • GB allowed a middle of the pack 35.9 WR DK pts/g in 2021
  • 2021 GB allowed the 9th fewest WR rec on the 9th most WR tg faced
  • TB WRs vs GB with Brady: Evans (1:10 / 3:51:1) // Godwin (5:48 / 5:110) // Miller (2:36:1)
  • Evans is suspended, Godwin & Julio DNP on Wed, and Gage, Miller, & Perriman all LP on Wed

Leonard Fournette:

  • Fournette also had a LP due to his ongoing hamstring injury
  • Fournette’s 2021 season::
  • 15+ touches in 13/15 g // 6 g of 60+ rush yds (5 of 80+)
  • 3+ rec in 14/15 g // 5+ rec in 8/15 g // 40+ rec yds in 7 g
  • Fournette in 2022: 21:127, 2:10 // 24:65, 2:9
  • RBs vs GB: MIN (28:126, 4:24) // CHI (19:160, 3:17)
  • Fournette vs GB in 2020’s playoffs: 12:55:1, 5:19
  • In the first Tampa Brady-GB matchup, RoJo ran for 23:113:2 (+Vaughn’s 5:42)

Aaron Rodgers:

  • 2021 TB faced the most pass att/g, allowing 12/19 QBs to throw for 250+
  • 2022 TB has already faced 42 & 40 pass att, but held DAL & NOR QBs to 198 & 236 pass yds with 4 INT
  • TB stud DL Akiem Hicks is out for several weeks and top CB Carlton Davis is Q
  • TB is facing the 2nd highest def aDOT and has the 3rd most pressures per PFR
  • Rodgers vs Bowles Bucs: 160:0:2 // 296:2:0, rush TD
  • Rodgers 2022 without Davante Adams: 195:0:1 // 234:2:0
  • Rodgers has thrown 34 & 25 pass att so far (averaged 33.2 in 2021)

GB WRs:

  • Davante totaled 15:127:1 in the two games vs TB
  • Lazard missed the reg season matchup but had 4:96:1 in the playoff game
  • Lazard in W2 debut: 2:13:1
  • 5 GB WRs caught between 2-3 passes in W2 vs CHI
  • Watkins is the highest scorer for GB so far with just 12.3 DK pts in W2
  • 2021 TB allowed 18 WRs of 60+ yds; 6 WRs of 100+ yds
  • 2021 TB allowed the 4th most WR rec and the 11th most WR yds on the 3rd most WR tg
  • 2022 WRs vs TB: Lamb (2:29), Brown (5:68) // Olave (5:80), Thomas (6:65:1)

Robert Tonyan:

  • With Bowles, TB has allowed DK pts/g to TEs of 14.2, 14.0, & 12.6
  • TEs with 40+ yds vs 2021 TB: Schultz (45) // Pitts (73, 48) // Higbee (40:1, 51) // Gesicki (43) // Kmet (43) // Doyle (81:1) // Knox (60:1) // Goedert (92)
  • 2022 TEs vs TB: Schultz (7:62) // Johnson (4:40)
  • Tonyan leads the GB TE room with 5:47 through two games
  • Tonyan had 3 of 8 games in 2021 of 40+ yds (52:1, 63:1, 49)

GB RBs:

  • Tracking the Bowles TB rush def::
  • TB allowed the fewest RB rush yds in each of the last three seasons under Bowles
  • In 16 games in 2019, Gurley & AK were the only RBs to break 20 DK pts vs TB, and they combined for 17 rec in those 2 games
  • In 20 games in 2020, Kamara, CMC, & Cook were the only RBs to break 20 DK pts vs TB, and AK & CMC both needed 2 TDs to get there
  • In 19 games in 2021, Patterson, Gaskin, Herbert, & Gibson were the only RBs to break 20 DK pts vs TB, and the first 3 combined for 20 rec while Gibson scored 2 TDs
  • Top RBs vs 2022 TB: Elliott (10:52) // Ingram (10:60)
  • TB allowed the 2nd most RB rec in 2021 after allowing the most in 2020 (5th most RB rec yds allowed 2021)
  • 2022 TB has allowed just 8 rec for 28 yds
  • GB touches::
  • Rush att: Jones (5 / 15) // Dillon (10 / 18)
  • Targets: Jones (5 / 3) // Dillon (6 / 3)
  • Total yds: Jones (76 / 170:2) // Dillon (91:1 / 67)
  • GB RBs vs TB (touches:yds): Jones (15:41:1 / 12:34) // Dillon (5:31 / 4:30)