Kickoff Sunday, Sep 25th 1:00pm Eastern

Texans (
18) at

Bears (
21)

Over/Under 39.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Texans Run D
25th DVOA/31st Yards allowed per carry
Bears Run O
9th DVOA/14th Yards per carry
Texans Pass D
13th DVOA/23rd Yards allowed per pass
Bears Pass O
32nd DVOA/30th Yards per pass
Bears Run D
27th DVOA/23rd Yards allowed per carry
Texans Run O
25th DVOA/32nd Yards per carry
Bears Pass D
17th DVOA/3rd Yards allowed per pass
Texans Pass O
23rd DVOA/28th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>
  • Houston has played at the league’s fourth fastest situation-neutral pace of play and the fastest pace of play in the first half through two weeks.
  • The Texans also rank in the top 10 in pass rate over expectation this year.
  • Chicago appears to be playing fast, with the league’s ninth fastest situation-neutral pace of play, but their first-half pace of play (more indicative of intent early in the year) ranks all the way down at 31st.
  • The Bears have the lowest pass rate over expectation in the league, notably allowing Fields to attempt only 28 total passes through two games.
  • The Houston defense has somehow missed 27 (!!!) tackles over two games, which is a completely abhorrent number.
  • There are over eight minutes of lost time of possession between these two teams (51:58 combined ToP).
  • The combined yards per carry of running backs in this game is a laughable 2.825.

How houston Will Try To Win ::

The Texans somewhat surprisingly come into Week 3 with the league’s fastest first-half pace of play and 10th highest pass rate over expectation, which is a far cry from what we all thought coming into the season under Lovie Smith. Pep Hamilton told us all off-season that he had faith in his second-year quarterback. Maybe we were just too thickheaded to listen? The Texans have run a respectable 128 offensive plays from scrimmage through two games, which lands slightly below league average, but lands at 25th in average time of possession. Houston’s offensive line surprisingly ranks in the top half of the league, particularly strong in pass protection to start the year, which could be a signal of their slight pass-leaning ways (although it is much more likely to be due to their sieve-like defense).

The ground game for the Texans has been a veritable disaster for fantasy purposes over two weeks, with Rex Burkhead and rookie Dameon Pierce taking turns in a featured role (71%/29% in Week 1 and 37%/62% in Weeks 2 for Burkhead and Pierce, respectively). Houston running backs have combined to muster just 2.92 yards per carry behind an offensive line generating only 3.72 adjusted line yards. The matchup yields a trivial 4.065 net-adjusted line yards metric. The positional target rate for Houston running backs in 2022 is 18.1%. Everything about the running back situation hints at disaster here. I just thought it would be fun to list out everything I could find regarding the situation. Suffice it to say, there isn’t much else to discuss with this one.

Brandin Cooks holds a massive 30.6% team target market share on a 96% route participation rate, has the 10th most air yards thus far at 211 (good for 34.4% of the team share), but has underperformed to the tune of WR35 overall numbers. I guess that’s what happens when you catch only 11 of 22 targets and fail to find the end zone. I lead with Cooks because this offense is truly “Cooks or bust” through the air, as no other pass-catcher has seen a snap rate over 67% over our two-week sample. Nico Collins, Chris Moore, and Chris Conley have rotated through behind Cooks at wide receiver while blocking tight end Pharaoh Brown leads the team in snap rate at the position, leaving only scraps for Brevin Jordan and newcomer O.J. Howard to fight over in the “pass-catching tight end role.”

How chicago Will Try To Win ::

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By Alex88 >>

OVERVIEW

  • Tied for the third lowest game total of Week 3 (40.5, as of late Tuesday)
  • HOU’s implied total of 18.75 is the third lowest
  • Through two weeks, HOU’s offense is eighth in fewest seconds per play (per TeamRankings.com)
  • CHI is 23rd
  • Per numberFire, HOU ranks sixth in adjusted seconds per play and CHI ranks seventh
  • Both teams have averaged just 14.5 ppg, fueled by both teams ranking bottom four in yards per play
  • CHI has averaged just 48.5 offensive plays per game, second fewest to SEA’s 48
  • When excluding OT, each team ranks bottom eight in average time of possession
  • HOU is tied for first in punts per game, CHI is tied for fifth

Davis Mills

  • 21st in PFF passing grade
  • Behind PFF’s 15th ranked offensive line, Mills ($5,000 Week 3 DK salary) ranks 31st in Pass EPA/play, 31st in Completion Percentage Over Expected, & 24th in adjusted yards per attempt (per 4for4’s NFL Player Stat Explorer)
  • The CHI secondary is ranked 27th by PFF
  • His game lines so far: Week 1 vs. IND 23/37:240:2 for 16.5 DK pts // Week 2 @ DEN 19/38:177 for 7.2 DK pts
  • Last year, he scored 20+ DK pts four separate times
  • CHI ranks 10th in DK ppg allowed to QBs
  • Notable opposing QB scores since 2021: Matthew Stafford 27.34 // Jimmy Garoppolo 30.28 // Kyler Murray 30.82 // Aaron Rodgers 32.64

HOU Passing Attack

  • Snap share: Brandin Cooks 89.5% // Pharaoh Brown 68.4% // Nico Collins 66.9% // Brevin Jordan 48.9%
  • Target share: Cooks 29.3% // Collins 16% // Jordan 8% // Brown 8%
  • Targets: Cooks 22 // Collins 12 // Jordan 6 // Brown 6
  • Cooks ($5,800) ranks 70th in PFF passing grade
  • Per 4for4, he ranks 11th in target share, tied for seventh in end zone target share, 13th in WOPR, & 17th in targets per route run
  • His game logs: Week 1 vs. IND 7/12:82 // Week 2 @ DEN 4/10:54
  • As a Texan, Cooks has scored 4x his Week 3 salary five times since 2020
  • Collins ($4,000) game logs: 2/3:26 // 4/9:58
  • Still yet to hit 15 DK pts
  • CHI ranks 17th in DK ppg allowed to WRs
  • Eight opposing WRs have scored 20+ DK pts since 2021 
  • Jordan ($2,600) ranks 11th in ADoT
  • In nine career games, he’s yet to hit 15 DK pts
  • CHI ranks third in DK ppg allowed to TEs
  • Notable opposing TE scores since 2021: Mark Andrews 15.3 // Gerald Everett 16.8 // Pat Freiermuth 21.3

HOU Rushing Attack

  • Snap share: Rex Burkhead 54.9% // Dameon Pierce 44.4%
  • Target share: Rex 14.7% // Pierce 2.7%
  • Targets: Rex 11 // Pierce 2
  • Attempts: Pierce 26 // Rex 14
  • Pierce ($5,000) has all three of the red zone attempts
  • After getting out snapped 20 to 50 in Week 1, Pierce led Week 2 39 to 23
  • He ranks 12th in % team carries & fourth in broken tackle % (per 4for4)
  • He’s PFF’s 20th ranked RB in rushing grade
  • His game logs: 11:33 & 1/1:6 // 15:69 & 1/1:8
  • Rex’s ($4,900) game logs: 14:40 & 5/8:30 // 0:0 & 2/3:9
  • CHI ranks 21st in DK ppg allowed to RBs
  • Notable opposing RB scores since 2021: Kareem Hunt 27.5 // Aaron Jones 35

Justin Fields

  • 33rd in PFF passing grade behind the 30th ranked offensive line
  • Fields ($5,600) has fewer pass attempts than Ryan Tannehill, Cooper Rush, Trey Lance, & Dak Prescott, all of whom have played in fewer than two full games unlike Fields
  • Jimmy Garoppolo had just seven fewer attempts in his lone game than Fields’s 28 on the season
  • Fields has fewer rush attempts than Trey Lance, who again has played less than two full games
  • Per 4for4, he ranks 30th in Pass EPA/play, 30th in CPOE, 29th in adj. YPA, 34th in percentage of air yards that are completed, 28th in on-target %, & 34th in percentage of dropbacks in which he was sacked
  • The HOU secondary is ranked dead last by PFF
  • His game lines: Week 1 vs. SF 8/17:121:2:1 & 11:28 // Week 2 @ GB 7/11:70:0:1 & 8:20:1
  • In a 27-10 loss vs. a division rival, Fields only had 11 pass attempts @ GB
  • In 13 career games, he’s scored 20+ DK pts just twice and he’s yet to score 30
  • HOU ranks 13th in DK ppg allowed to QBs
  • Notable opposing QB scores since 2021: Trevor Lawrence 25.08 // Matthew Stafford 27.2 // Ryan Tannehill 27.28 // Sam Darnold 28.26

CHI Passing Attack (or lack thereof)

  • Snap share: Darnell Mooney 89.9% // Cole Kmet 83.8% // Equanimeous St. Brown 73.7%
  • Target share: ESB 25% // Mooney 17.9% // Ryan Griffin 10.7% // Kmet 7.1%
  • Targets: ESB 7 // Mooney 5 // Griffin 3 // Kmet 2
  • 47 different WRs had more targets in Week 1 than Mooney ($5,300) has had through two weeks
  • 49 did the same thing in Week 2
  • He’s PFF’s 95th ranked WR in receiving grade
  • Mooney has scored 4x his Week 3 DK salary three times since entering the league in 2020
  • ESB’s Week 3 DK salary of $3,900 is the second highest of his career
  • He’s yet to hit 15 DK pts
  • HOU ranks 24th in DK ppg allowed to WRs
  • Nine opposing WRs have scored 20+ DK pts since 2021
  • Kmet ($3,400) has just one target each of the first two weeks, which he has turned into zero production
  • HOU ranks 16th in DK ppg allowed to TEs
  • Notable opposing TE scores since 2021: Anthony Firkser 15.6 // Zach Ertz 16 // Hunter Henry 19.5 // Dawson Knox 20.7

CHI Rushing Attack

  • Snap share: David Montgomery 71.7% // Khalil Herbert 25.3%
  • Target share: Montgomery 21.4% // Herbert 7.1%
  • Targets: Montgomery 6 // Herbert 2
  • Attempts: Montgomery 32 // Herbert 13
  • Red zone attempts: Justin Fields 6 // Montgomery 4 // Herbert 3
  • Montgomery ($5,900) ranks first in broken tackle % & seventh in yards after contact per carry (per 4for4)
  • He’s ranked 49th in PFF’s rushing grade
  • His game logs: 17:26 & 3/4:24 // 15:122 & 2/2:14
  • His Week 3 DK salary is nearly $2,000 lower than his career high of $7,700 from the end of the 2020 season
  • He’s scored 25+ DK pts eight times in 48 games
  • HOU ranks 30th in DK ppg allowed to RBs
  • Jonathan Taylor accounts for three out of the five instances of a 25+ DK pt performance vs. HOU since 2021