Kickoff Sunday, Sep 25th 1:00pm Eastern

Chiefs (
28) at

Colts (
23)

Over/Under 51.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Chiefs Run D
5th DVOA/21st Yards allowed per carry
Colts Run O
32nd DVOA/2nd Yards per carry
Chiefs Pass D
21st DVOA/27th Yards allowed per pass
Colts Pass O
30th DVOA/26th Yards per pass
Colts Run D
2nd DVOA/10th Yards allowed per carry
Chiefs Run O
17th DVOA/16th Yards per carry
Colts Pass D
27th DVOA/19th Yards allowed per pass
Chiefs Pass O
7th DVOA/4th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>
  • Two teams on very different trajectories. The Colts have played the Texans to a tie and got shut out by the Jaguars while the Chiefs have handled business against the Cardinals and Chargers.
  • Indianapolis has blitzed a healthy 28.2% to start the season after blitzing at the sixth lowest frequency in 2021, likely due to the relative ineffectiveness of their 4-3 front.
  • The Chiefs have historically (over the previous season) utilized a heavier emphasis on the run game and short-to-intermediate pass game against heavy Cover-2 and Cover-3 defenses, of which the Colts most definitely are.
  • Expect Indianapolis to lean on the run for as long as possible here.

How kansas city Will Try To Win ::

Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes check into Week 2 with the second highest pass rate over expectation in the league, which has come to be expected during their tenure together. The most interesting dynamic of this matchup is the expected blitz rates from Indianapolis as Mahomes has historically shredded the blitz. Colts defensive coordinator Gus Bradley utilized elevated blitz rates against two second-year quarterbacks over the first two weeks, which doesn’t necessarily mean those rates will carry through to a matchup with the perennial blitz-beater in Patrick Mahomes but is worth noting. Also worth noting is the absence of Darius (Shaq) Leonard in the middle of the field for Indianapolis, which affects the dynamism of a defense rooted in 4-3 base Cover-3. All told, it’s likely we see Andy Reid utilize increased emphasis on the run game against the heavy zone tendencies of the Colts, which has been the percentage solution over the previous year or so when facing heavier zone defenses. That is not to say we all of a sudden expect a run-heavy game plan from the Chiefs, simply that Reid and Mahomes have made more adjustments against Cover-2 and Cover-3 recently, relying more heavily on the run game and short passing game.

The backfield appears to be straightforward on the surface, with Clyde Edwards-Helaire the lead back and primary rusher, Jerick McKinnon the primary change of pace and third-down back, and Isiah Pacheco on hand for an emergency between-the-tackles role. That said, Edwards-Helaire has exactly zero red zone rush attempts through two games (McKinnon and Pacheco each have two such opportunities), clearly indicating a continued reliance on Mahomes and the pass game where it matters. The Chiefs also have averaged only 22.5 rush attempts per game, with that workload likely split between Edwards-Helaire and McKinnon on a standard week, with Pacheco joining the fray in positive game environments. As in, CEH’s 11 running back opportunities per game is highly unlikely to see him sustain his current top 12 status moving forward. 

What’s truly remarkable is the fact that the Chiefs have managed 71 total points scored this season on only 112 total offensive plays, which should come with little surprise considering who we’re talking about here, but is remarkable, nonetheless. Reid and the Chiefs hinted at a loose rotation at wide receiver after the departure of Tyreek Hill, and they’ve largely made good on that promise. Marquez Valdes-Scantling leads the way in snap rate at the position, followed by JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman. Justin Watson and Skyy Moore have mixed in sparingly to this point. From a macro perspective, the Chiefs have utilized heavy 12-personnel alignments through Travis Kelce and Noah Gray, with Jody Fortson mixing in as required. Travis Kelce’s route participation was a point of concern for season-long drafters this offseason, but his 85.1% mark remains elite, as does his 27.1% share of the team’s available air yards and 2.73 yards per route run. He is very much still the backbone of this pass offense. Behind Kelce, Smith-Schuster started off the season in a more downfield role but has since settled back into a “standard for him” moderate aDOT (7.8) and moderate yards per route run (1.48) role. The matchup lines up well for both Kelce and JuJu to be the primary pass game options. Marquez Valdes-Scantling has transitioned from a premier downfield threat into a more modest upside option in Kansas City, with a moderate 8.7 aDOT and gross 0.95 yards per route run value, which is interesting considering Mecole Hardman has now taken over more of a downfield role in this offense (16.3 aDOT and 1.48 yard per route run value). Keep an eye on this trend to see if it sticks moving forward.

How Indianapolis Will Try To Win ::

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By Dwprix >>

Overview

  • Total of 49.5 is the first KC total under 50 
  • 3rd highest total on slate
  • KC is favored by 6.5
  • IND is coming off a 24-0 loss to (JAC) & are winless at 0-1-1
  • KC is 2-0 after being down to LAC 17-7 early in the 3rd qtr last week
  • LAC held KC to 14 yds in the 1st quarter

Patrick Mahomes

  • Mahomes (7.9k) comes back onto the main slate as the 3rd highest priced QB on DK 
  • He’s the 2nd highest on FD ($8.7k) 
  • His price went down $100 on both sites
  • 7:0 TD:INT ratio
  • Mahomes has 300+ yds in 3 of the last 5
  • He’s targeted 10 different players in both games this season
  • IND def ranks 29th in pass dvoa

KC RBs

  • Snap share: (CEH 41%) // (McKinnon 43%) // (Pacheco 17%)
  • Tgts: (CEH 3,4) // (McKinnon 4,2 )
  • CEH last week: rush 8:74 yds // rec 4:44 yds-4 tgts
  • On the season CEH has 15 carries:116 yds // 4th highest ypc (7.7)
  • CEH DK pts: 22.4 // 15.8 // avg of 19.1 is 3.0x his salary this week
  • IND allowed to RBs: (Robinson 23:64:1 TD) // (Burkhead 14:40, 5:30-8 tgts)
  • They held JAC to 2.6 yds/carry Wk2

KC WRs

  • Targets: (Schuster 11) // (MVS 11) // (Hardman 10) 
  • Schuster is the only KC WR with 50+ rec yds (79 in Wk1)
  • No KC player has 10 or more tgts yet
  • MVS had 7 last week which tied Kelce for team high
  • IND allowed to WR: (Kirk 6:78:2 TDs) // (Cooks 7:82)

Travis Kelce

  • Kelce was slowed down a bit by Derwin James last week (5:51-7 targets)
  • He had scored in seven straight games prior to last week
  • Kelce has 90+ yds four out of his last five // 100+ in two of the last five
  • IND hasn’t faced a top TE yet but did give up 2 TDs on 2 tgts Wk1 to OJ Howard & 7:46-8 tgts to Evan Engram Wk2
  • Kelce’s price has risen each week: $6.6k to $7.5k to $7.9k
  • $7.9k is his most expensive price since Wk2 last season

Matt Ryan

  • After coming off a decent outing in WK1 (32:50:352:1td:1int // 20.3 DK pts), Ryan was bad in Wk2 (16:30:195:0tds:3ints // 4.8 DK pts)
  • 4.8 DK pts was the lowest of all QBs who finished their game
  • His price went down $300 on Dk ($5.2k) after being $5.5k two straight weeks
  • On FD his price has went down $200 ($6.7k) since Wk1
  • KC D has faced Justin Herbert (27.5 Dk pts) & Kyler Murray (20.6)

Jonathan Taylor

  • Taylor had 175 scrimmage yds Wk1 // Only 63 Wk 2
  • Tgts Wk1: 7 // W2: 1
  • Taylor’s Snap Rate Wk1 (67%) // Wk2 (74%)
  • Nyheim Hines Snap Rate: Wk1 28% (22/26 snaps on pass plays) // Wk2 30% (14/15 snaps on pass plays)
  • Taylor’s tgts (1, 7) // Hines (5, 6)
  • Due to negative game script last week, Taylor only had nine rushing attempts last week
  • He didn’t have any games that few last season
  • His 31 attempts in a close game Wk1 was his 2nd highest since the start of last season
  • Opponents have rushed an average of 23 times vs KC
  • Taylor’s price dropped $900 on DK: $9.9k to $9k
  • It dropped $600 on FD: $10k to $9.4k

IND WRs

  • Snap % with Pittman out: Parris Campbell-86% // Michael Strachan-70% // Ashton Dulin-64% // Dezmon Patmon-48% 
  • Tgts: Dulin-7 // Patmon-6 // Strachan-3 // Campbell-2 
  • Pittman Wk1: 9:121:1TD-13 tgts
  • KC allowed to WRs: Williams (8:113:1) // Palmer (4:30:1) // Dortch (7:63) // Brown (4:43)

IND TEs

  • Snaps counts: Tyler Granson 27, 51 // Moe Allie-Cox 27, 50
  • Target counts: Granson (2, 7) // Cox (3, 2)