Kickoff Sunday, Sep 25th 1:00pm Eastern

Ravens (
23.5) at

Patriots (
21)

Over/Under 44.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Ravens Run D
22nd DVOA/1st Yards allowed per carry
Patriots Run O
1st DVOA/8th Yards per carry
Ravens Pass D
14th DVOA/32nd Yards allowed per pass
Patriots Pass O
28th DVOA/14th Yards per pass
Patriots Run D
31st DVOA/22nd Yards allowed per carry
Ravens Run O
15th DVOA/3rd Yards per carry
Patriots Pass D
10th DVOA/2nd Yards allowed per pass
Ravens Pass O
1st DVOA/13th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By papy324>>
  • The best DFS play from this game is probably a defense.
  • The Patriots WRs are all cheap if you think their game plan will be to pass.
  • The Ravens are highly influenced by game script.
  • The Ravens passing game has upside, with a lower than normal chance to reach their ceiling.

How Baltimore Will Try To Win ::

The Ravens must be the maddest team in the NFL, after blowing what seemed like an insurmountable advantage in the fourth quarter last week. We might not see another three-touchdown lead evaporate that late in the game this year. Fortunately for Baltimore, they play in the AFC North, a division no one wants to win, so they didn’t lose any ground despite the disappointing loss. Even so, history shows there is a big difference in playoff made percentage between 2-1 and 1-2 teams, making this a meaningful early season game for a team with Super Bowl aspirations.

Jim Harbaugh has long been one of the better coaches in the NFL and is willing to scheme his offense around the talent on his roster. It’s easy to forget Lamar Jackson was a raw QB prospect coming out of Louisville with a play style that typically doesn’t succeed in the NFL. Harbaugh deserves a lot of credit for adapting to his new QB and designing an offense that fit his strengths. The Ravens offense attacks in a unique way, which allows them to play with the mindset of “you have to adjust to us” rather than trying to adapt their game plan based on the defense.

The Patriots defense has been solid against the pass (11th in DVOA) and middling against the run (17th in DVOA) to start the year while holding the Dolphins and Steelers under 21 points. There is no reason to think the Patriots defense will tilt the Ravens away from their preferred approach of using Lamar Jackson as a hybrid QB/RB who stresses the defense with his legs, creating open throws down the field that don’t require him to be as accurate as other QBs. There may be some indication that the Ravens are looking to be more judicious with Jackson’s rushing attempts, as he saw only 6/9 carries in the first two games. However, the six carries came in a game that was never in doubt, and the nine carries were enough to post 119 yards. The Patriots have recently favored man coverage, and this could be Lamar’s first double-digit carry game of the year if Belichick lets his defense turn their back.

The Ravens want to play at an above-average pace (13th situational neutral) but are willing to slow down when winning (20th in the second half). They demonstrated this tendency in both games this year when they took large leads into halftime. The Ravens will stay aggressive, as long as the game is competitive, but are happy to take the air out of the ball with a lead. The Ravens have scored 62 points this year, but only three points in the 4th quarter, and 21 points in the second half.  Expect the Ravens to try and establish another early lead, before becoming more conservative and hoping to grind down the clock for an easy win.    

How new england Will Try To Win ::

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OVERVIEW

  • Middling game total of 43.5
  • NE’s implied total of 20.25 is tied for the eighth lowest of Week 3
  • Per numberFire, BAL ranks 29th in adjusted seconds per play
  • NE ranks 20th
  • BAL is tied for fourth in ppg with 31
  • NE is tied for 30th with just 12 ppg
  • BAL leads the league with seven yards per play
  • Their offense has averaged just three penalties per game (second fewest)

Lamar Jackson

  • Sixth in PFF passing grade behind the 18th ranked offensive line
  • Lamar ($8,000 Week 3 DK salary) ranks third in Pass EPA/play, first in adj. YPA, & first in ADoT (per 4for4’s Player Stat Explorer)
  • The NE secondary is ranked 18th by PFF
  • His game logs: Week 1 @ NYJ 17/30:213:3:1 & 6:17 // Week 2 vs. MIA 21/29:318:3 & 9:119:1
  • His 34.9 DK ppg ranks first
  • Lamar has scored 4x his Week 3 DK salary 14 times in 55 career games
  • NE ranks seventh in DK ppg allowed to QBs
  • Notable opposing QB scores since 2021: Davis Mills 27.68 // Dak Prescott 31.8 // Josh Allen 33.96 // Allen 41.92

BAL Passing Attack

  • Snap share: Mark Andrews 83.5% // Rashod Bateman 63.5% // Devin Duvernay 53%
  • Target share: Andrews 30.5% // Bateman 20.3% // Isaiah Likely 15.3% // Duvernay 10.2%
  • Targets: Andrews 18 // Bateman 12 // Likely 9 // Duvernay 6
  • Bateman ($5,700) ranks 10th in ADoT, 4th in yards per route run, & 23rd in targets per route run (per 4for4)
  • His game logs: 2/5:59:1 // 4/7:108:1
  • He’s scored 20+ DK pts twice in 13 games
  • Duvernay ($4,000) game logs: 4/4:54:2 // 2/2:42 & kick return TD
  • He ranks 26th in PFF receiving grade
  • NE ranks 12th in DK ppg allowed to WRs
  • Notable opposing WR scores since 2021: Stefon Diggs 21.5 // Isaiah McKenzie 32.4 // CeeDee Lamb 39.1
  • Andrews ($6,900) ranks first in target share, seventh in end zone target share, first in air yard share, second in ADoT, first in WOPR, first in YPRR, & second in TPRR
  • His game logs: 5/7:52 // 9/11:104:1
  • His 19.4 DK ppg ranks second
  • He’s scored 4x his Week 3 salary three times since the 2019 season, and hit 20+ DK pts eight times (out of 34 games)
  • NE ranks 11th in DK ppg allowed to TEs
  • Notable opposing TE scores since 2021: Dawson Knox 25.9

BAL Rushing Attack

  • Snap share: Kenyan Drake 41.7% // Justice Hill 27.8% // Mike Davis 21.7%
  • Attempts: Drake 17 // Davis 7 // Hill 5
  • None of the RBs have seen enough work to amount to six DK pts
  • NE ranks eighth in DK ppg allowed to RBs
  • Seven opposing RBs have scored 20+ DK pts vs. NE since 2021 (none have hit 30)

Mac Jones

  • 24th in PFF passing grade behind the third ranked offensive line
  • Mac ($5,100) ranks 20th in Pass EPA/play, fifth in ADoT, & 32nd in on-target % (per 4for4)
  • The BAL secondary is ranked 13th by PFF
  • Mac’s game logs: Week 1 @ MIA 31/30:213:1:1 // Week 2 @ PIT 21.35:252:1:1
  • He’s scored 4x his Week 3 DK salary just three times out of 20 career games
  • His ceiling DK score has been 25.18 pts
  • BAL ranks 32nd in DK ppg allowed to QBs
  • Notable opposing QB scores since 2021: Carson Wentz 26.58 // Derek Carr 28 // Patrick Mahomes 28.02 // Joe Burrow 30.64 // Burrow 41.1 // Tua Tagovailoa 43.86

NE Passing Attack

  • Snap share: DeVante Parker 87.2% // Jakobi Meyers 84.8% // Hunter Henry 62.4% // Jonnu Smith 62.4% // Nelson Agholor 53.6%
  • Target share: Meyers 29.2% // Agholor 16.9% // Smith 10.8% // Parker 6.2% // Henry 6.2%
  • Targets: Meyers 19 // Agholor 11 // Smith 7 // Parker 4 // Henry 4
  • Meyers ($5,000) ranks 12th in target share, 26th in air yard share, 16th in WOPR, 22nd in YPRR, & 14th in TPRR
  • His game logs: 4/6:55 // 9/13:95
  • Ranks 34th in PFF receiving grade
  • Meyers has scored 20+ DK pts once in 19 games
  • Agholor ($4,100) game logs: 3/5:28 // 6/6:110:1
  • He’s scored 15+ DK pts three times, including last week’s 26 pt effort
  • He ranks 32nd in PFF grade
  • BAL ranks 32nd in DK ppg allowed to WRs
  • There have been 11 instances of an opposing WR scoring 20+ DK pts since 2021
  • Smith ($2,900) ranks eighth in TPRR
  • His game logs: 3/4:33 // 0/3:0
  • He’s yet to hit 12 DK pts
  • Henry’s ($3,200) game logs: 2/3:20 // 0/1:0
  • This is how lowest DK salary with Mac Jones at QB
  • He hit 15+ DK pts three times last season, including a 25.7 ceiling
  • BAL ranks 25th in DK ppg allowed to TEs
  • Notable opposing TE scores since 2021: Noah Fant 16.6 // C.J. Uzomah 24.1 // Travis Kelce 26.9 // Darren Waller 29.5

NE Rushing Attack

  • Snap share: Rhamondre Stevenson 44.8% // Damien Harris 39.2%
  • Target share: Harris 7.7% // Stevenson 6.2%
  • Targets: Harris 5 // Stevenson 4
  • Attempts: Harris 24 // Stevenson 17
  • Harris ($5,600) has seen all five of the RB touches in the redzone
  • He ranks 21st in % team carries, 19th in rush yards over expected per carry, 16th in broken tackle %, 18th in yards after contact per carry, & eighth in % team redzone carries (Mac Jones has seen the rest of the carries in the redzone)
  • Harris ranks 28th in PFF rushing grade
  • His game logs: 9:48 & 2/3:10 // 15:71:1 & 2/2:16
  • His Week 3 DK salary is $1,000 less than his highest cost last season
  • He had four games of 25+ DK pts last year
  • Stevenson ($4,800) ranks 19th in yards after contact per carry (per 4for4)
  • He ranks 11th in PFF rushing grade
  • His game logs: 8:25 & 2/2:2 // 9:47 & 1/2:4
  • His Week 3 DK salary is $1,000 less than his highest cost last year
  • He had two games of 25+ DK pts in 2021
  • BAL ranks 16th in DK ppg allowed to RBs
  • Notable opposing RB scores since 2021: D’Andre Swift 23.7 // Joe Mixon 31.5 // Jonathan Taylor 34.9