Kickoff Sunday, Sep 25th 1:00pm Eastern

Lions (
22.75) at
Vikings (
29.25)

Over/Under 52.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Lions Run D
3rd DVOA/3rd Yards allowed per carry
Vikings Run O
27th DVOA/22nd Yards per carry
Lions Pass D
16th DVOA/30th Yards allowed per pass
Vikings Pass O
21st DVOA/17th Yards per pass
Vikings Run D
12th DVOA/6th Yards allowed per carry
Lions Run O
4th DVOA/5th Yards per carry
Vikings Pass D
10th DVOA/4th Yards allowed per pass
Lions Pass O
9th DVOA/9th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>
  • Minnesota should look more like the team we saw in Week 1 than the team we saw get trampled by the Eagles.
  • The Lions play aggressively on both sides of the ball, which helps set the tone for high-scoring games.
  • Both teams are top-10 in the league in pace of play.
  • Both defenses have shown the ability to make plays but also shown that they are very susceptible to miscues through two weeks.

How detroit Will Try To Win ::

Detroit appears to have turned the corner to become a different team than the bottom feeder we have seen in recent years. Dan Campbell’s energy shows up on the team in all areas as they play extremely hard and have had two impressive showings to start the season. Their season-opening loss to the Eagles looks much better now after seeing how the Eagles demolished the Vikings on Monday Night Football in Week 2. Now the Lions head on the road for their first divisional matchup of the season against the Vikings, who are playing on a short week.

Perhaps the most impressive and noteworthy thing about Detroit’s start has been the pace with which they are playing. The Lions are currently leading the league in situation-neutral pace of play and 5th in overall pace of play (seconds per snap). They have done this while playing with a very balanced, league-average pass rate and are doing a tremendous job of mixing things up and using their personnel well, including multiple running backs. Amon-Ra St. Brown has obviously been terrific as he continues his ascension to top-tier NFL WR status, but Jared Goff’s play has been outstanding through two weeks, with 471 passing yards, a 6:1 TD-to-INT ratio, and a 100.15 QB Rating.

Through two weeks, the Vikings defense once again looks like it is not one to fear, and the Lions do not have the feeling of a team that plays with fear in any regard. The Lions defense is not elite, so they know they need to score points. We should expect more of the same from Detroit this week, with a balanced attack that plays to their personnel’s strengths :: short and intermediate throws to the middle of the field and flats, Amon-Ra St. Brown and D’Andre Swift in space, Jamaal Williams between the tackles, and occasional shots downfield to DJ Chark. The Lions will play fast and attempt to strike first, isolating their skill players in space against a Vikings team that struggled to contain the Eagles weapons on Monday night.

How minnesota Will Try To Win ::

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By Alex88 >>

OVERVIEW

  • Second highest game total of Week 3 (moved up three full points since opening)
  • MIN’s implied total of 29.75 is tied for first with BUF
  • DET’s 23.75 is tied for ninth
  • The majority of the line movement has come on the DET side (up by 2.25 pts)
  • Since their 2021 bye (Week 9), DET has a 9-2 record against the spread (per Pro Football Reference)
  • DET is tied for fifth in fewest seconds per play (per TeamRankings.com)
  • MIN is tied for 11th
  • DET is tied with KC in ppg at 35.5
  • Meanwhile, MIN is averaging just 15 ppg
  • DET ranks sixth in yards per play with 6.7, behind four of the six remaining unbeaten teams and BAL
  • MIN and DET are among the least penalized offenses
  • DET’s defense has allowed the second most ppg at 32.5

Jared Goff

  • 29th in PFF passing grade behind the sixth ranked offensive line
  • Goff ($5,800 Week 3 DK salary) ranks eighth in adj. YPA, seventh in ADoT, & seventh in on-target % (per 4for4’s Player Stat Explorer)
  • The MIN secondary is ranked 21st by PFF
  • His game logs: Week 1 vs. PHI 21/37:215:2:1 // Week 2 vs. WAS 20/34:256:4
  • His Week 3 DK salary is the highest it’s been as a Lion
  • He’s scored 4x that salary twice for DET: 26.04 in Week 2 // 32.92 in Week 1 last year
  • MIN ranks 23rd in DK ppg allowed to QBs
  • Notable opposing QB scores since 2021: Ben Roethlisberger 28.82 // Lamar Jackson 35.64 // Aaron Rodgers 36.5 // Jalen Hurts 37.02 // Kyler Murray 38.1

DET Passing Attack

  • Snap share: T.J. Hockenson 90% // Amon-Ra St. Brown 86.9% // Josh Reynolds 76.2% // DJ Chark 73.8%
  • Target share: Amon-Ra 33.8% // Hockenson 19.7% // Chark 16.9% // Reynolds 8.5%
  • Targets: Amon-Ra 24 // Hockenson 14 // Chark 12 // Reynolds 3
  • Amon-Ra ($7,200) ranks fourth in target share, 15th in WOPR, 17th in yards per route run, & 7th in targets per route run (per 4for4)
  • His game logs: 8/12:64:1 // 9/12:116:2 & 2:68
  • He ranks 30th in PFF receiving grade
  • In Weeks 16 & 17 last year, Amon-Ra also had two carries (for 19 & 23 yards respectively)
  • His 31.4 DK ppg ranks fourth
  • Amon-Ra’s Week 3 salary is a career high and the first time he’s cracked $7k
  • His DK game logs in the past eight games, in chronological order: 24.8 // 15.3 // 23.5 // 26 // 38.4 // 29.1 // 20.4 // 42.4
  • Chark ($5,100) ranks fifth in ADoT
  • His game logs: 4/8:52:1 // 0/4:0
  • He hasn’t scored 20+ DK pts since 2020 (29.5 & 30.6)
  • MIN ranks 18th in DK ppg allowed to WRs
  • Seven opposing WRs have scored 25+ DK pts since 2021
  • Hockenson ($4,200) ranks eighth in target share, eighth in WOPR, & 12th in TPRR
  • His game logs: 4/7:38 // 3/7:26
  • He’s scored 4x his Week 3 DK salary three times in his past 13 games
  • MIN ranks 23rd in DK ppg allowed to TEs
  • Notable opposing TE scores since 2021: Dallas Goedert 13.2 // Hockenson 14.9 // Maxx Williams 16.4

DET Rushing Attack

  • Snap share: D’Andre Swift 59.2% // Jamaal Williams 33.8%
  • Target share: Swift 11.3% // Williams 4.2%
  • Targets: Swift 8 // Williams 3
  • Attempts: Williams 23 // Swift 20
  • Williams leads in redzone touches 10 to 2, including all four of the inside the five carries
  • Swift ($7,200) was limited in snaps in Week 2
  • He leads all RBs in rush yards over expected per carry, 14th in broken tackle %, fourth in yards after contact per carry, & is 24th in high value touch % (per 4for4)
  • PFF ranks Swift as the third best RB in rushing grade
  • His game logs: 15:144:1 & 3/3:31 // 5:56 & 2/5:31:1
  • Swift’s 23.1 DK ppg ranks third
  • His Week 3 DK salary is $100 shy of tying his career high
  • He’s scored 25+ DK pts five times in 28 games
  • Williams ($5,400) ranks 23rd in % of team carries, eighth in % of red zone carries, & fifth in high value touch %
  • His game logs: 11:28:2 & 1/2:2 // 12:53 & 1/1:7
  • He’s scored 20+ DK pts once as a Lion (Week 1 last season)
  • MIN ranks 18th in DK ppg allowed to RBs
  • Notable opposing RB scores since 2021: Najee Harris 25.4 // Joe Mixon 28 // Elijah Mitchell 30.8

Kirk Cousins

  • 12th in PFF passing grade behind the 19th ranked offensive line
  • Cousins ($6,700) ranks 18th in Pass EPA/play but 30th in EPA/play when blitzed, 27th in adj. YPA, seventh in air yard completion %, 33rd in ADoT, & ninth in pocket time (per 4for4)
  • The DET secondary is ranked 25th by PFF
  • Per PFF, DET has utilized man coverage at the second highest rate this season
  • His Week 3 salary is the second highest it’s been as a Viking
  • He’s scored 4x that salary 13 times in 70 games
  • DET ranks 29th in DK ppg allowed to QBs
  • Notable opposing QB scores since 2021: Aaron Rodgers 26.8 // Russell Wilson 27.84 // Matthew Stafford 30.16 // Carson Wentz 31.78

MIN Passing Attack

  • Snap share: Adam Thielen 95.9% // Justin Jefferson 95.1% // K.J. Osborn 72.4% // Johnny Mundt 55.3% // Irv Smith 43.1%
  • Target share: Jefferson 29.5% // Thielen 14.1% // Smith 12.8% // Mundt 7.7% // Osborn 7.7%
  • Targets: Jefferson 23 // Thielen 11 // Smith 10 // Mundt 6 // Osborn 6
  • Jefferson ($9,300) ranks 10th in target share, fourth in end zone target share, first in air yard share, fourth in WOPR, 12th in YPRR, & 19th in TPRR (per 4for4)
  • His game logs: Week 1 vs. GB 9/11:184:2 // Week 2 @ PHI 6/12:48
  • He ranks eighth in PFF grade
  • His 26.6 DK ppg ranks seventh
  • Week 3 DK salary is a career high, and he’s scored 4x that salary four times in three seasons
  • Thielen ($5,900) game logs: 3/4:36 // 4/7:52
  • He’s scored 4x his Week 3 DK salary seven times since Jefferson joined the team
  • DET ranks 25th in DK ppg allowed to WRs
  • Notable opposing WR scores: A.J. Brown 28.5 // DK Metcalf 30.9 // Deebo Samuel 35.9 // Justin Jefferson 38.6 // Cooper Kupp 40.6
  • Smith ($3,100) ranks ninth in air yard share, 12th in ADoT, & 10th in TPRR
  • His game logs: 0/2:0 // 5/8:36:1
  • His 14.6 DK pts in Week 2 were his highest since scoring 15+ three times in 2020
  • DET ranks 21st in DK ppg allowed to TEs
  • Notable opposing TE scores since 2021: Albert Okwuegbunam 15.1 // Josiah Deguara 15.6 // Mark Andrews 18.9 // Kyle Pitts 19.2

Dalvin Cook

  • Among all RBs, Cook ($7,900) ranks fifth in % team carries, 18th in rush yards over expected per carry, 18th in broken tackle %, & 22nd in high value touch % (per 4for4)
  • He’s PFF’s 17th ranked RB in rushing grade
  • His game logs: 20:90 & 3/5:18 // 6:17 & 4/6:19
  • Since 2019, he’s scored 30+ DK pts seven times in 48 games
  • DET ranks 31st in DK ppg allowed to RBs
  • Notable opposing RB scores since 2021: Alexander Mattison 30.3 // Rashaad Penny 35.5 // Aaron Jones 41.5