Kickoff Sunday, Sep 25th 1:00pm Eastern

Eagles (
27) at

WFT (
20.5)

Over/Under 47.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Eagles Run D
23rd DVOA/9th Yards allowed per carry
Commanders Run O
27th DVOA/12th Yards per carry
Eagles Pass D
2nd DVOA/11th Yards allowed per pass
Commanders Pass O
27th DVOA/21st Yards per pass
Commanders Run D
6th DVOA/8th Yards allowed per carry
Eagles Run O
6th DVOA/1st Yards per carry
Commanders Pass D
30th DVOA/29th Yards allowed per pass
Eagles Pass O
4th DVOA/25th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>
  • The Eagles hold the second fastest first-half pace of play and the slowest second-half pace of play, indicative of intent versus game flow over the first two weeks.
  • The Commanders hold the league’s fifth-highest blitz rate and lowest quarterback hurry rate through two weeks – not a great combination.
  • Both teams rank in the top five in plays per game through two weeks, a testament to the first-half pace shown by the Eagles and the pass-heavy approach from the Commanders.
  • This game environment could turn into one of the top environments on the slate if the Commanders can muster some more second-half gusto. 

How philadelphia Will Try To Win ::

Nick Sirianni’s Eagles are thought of as this run-first offense that keeps you on your heels through pace. While that is not far from the truth, it seems as if that statement is simply scratching the surface as to the depth of this offensive unit this season. The primarily 11- and 12-personnel-based offense utilizes their mobile quarterback, the top-ranked offensive line in the league (per PFF), a three-way stable of dynamic running backs, one of the most athletic tight ends in the game, and now an elite wide receiver corps consisting of the electric A.J. Brown, dynamic second-year pro DeVonta Smith, and burner slot man Quez Watkins to layer its attack through misdirection, brute force, and athleticism. Hurts has been able to complete 70% of his passes this year with top five marks in average air yards per attempt, meaning he’s been both precise and capable of inflicting chunk damage all at once. Basically, this offense can beat you at all three levels on the field in any given play.

On the ground, quarterback Jalen Hurts is really the team’s lead running back, with a stable of three relatively dynamic backs behind him. Miles Sanders leads the team in rushing with a healthy 5.87 yards per carry on 30 carries, good for 176 yards on the ground through two games. Sanders has played just over 50% of the offensive snaps each week thus far, spelled frequently by both Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott in the backfield. As far as fantasy expectations go, it has never been about expected overall rushing success with this team under Sirianni and Hurts – it’s simply a matter of a four-way split in expected workload on the ground. For example, Hurts leads the team in rushing scores, Sanders leads the team in rushing yards, and all four of Hurts, Sanders, Gainwell, and Scott have found paint in the first two weeks of the season (Hurts – 4, Sanders – 1, Gainwell – 1, Scott – 1). The matchup on the ground yields an elite 4.69 net-adjusted line yards metric against a Commanders defense overperforming to start the season, considering the injuries to their first and second level.

The addition of A.J. Brown to this offseason was one of the “gets of the summer,” completing a dynamic skill position roster including a downfield and mobile passer, elite speed at all positions, the top-ranked offensive line, and elite yards after the catch ability. The technical aspects of the route running of Brown, Smith, Goedert, and even Watkins is one of the more under-discussed aspects of this pass-catching unit, but something that mustn’t go unnoticed moving forward. So, while the team carries elite downfield chops, their eighth-ranked yards after the catch value and fifth-ranked average intended air yards are a dangerous combination. Second-year wide receiver DeVonta Smith has played all but four offensive snaps to start the season, with newcomer “alpha” (in quotes because Smith could be the alpha on most NFL rosters) A.J. Brown playing almost 90% of the offensive snaps weekly. Tight end Dallas Goedert has developed into an all-around, near every-down NFL tight end, while downfield burner/slot man Quez Watkins typically handles 55-60% of the offensive snaps. Washington’s blitz-heavy (41.5% through two games) and man-heavy defense have allowed a startling 9.2 average depth of target (third deepest) and third most air yards to date in 2022, including five passing scores and a minuscule 1.2% hurry rate. I spoke to the injuries to the Washington defensive line and linebacker unit above, which highlights the struggles generated by heavy blitz rates and borderline zero pressure rates thus far.

How washington Will Try To Win ::

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OVERVIEW

  • Sixth highest game total of Week 3, although it has fallen three full points since opening
  • PHI’s implied total of 26.75 is the fifth highest
  • WAS’s 20.25 is tied for the eighth lowest
  • The negative line movement has all come on the WAS side
  • In fact, PHI’s total has gone up
  • The 6.5 pt spread is tied for the second widest
  • Per numberFire, each team is about average in adjusted seconds per play (PHI at 17th, WAS at 18th)
  • PHI is tied for fourth in ppg with 31
  • WAS ranks eighth
  • PHI’s offense is tied for second in yards per play despite facing the second most offensive penalties per game
  • The WAS defense is tied for fourth in ppg allowed with 29 and tied for second in yards per play allowed

Jalen Hurts

  • First in PFF passing grade behind the first ranked offensive line
  • Hurts ($7,600) ranks fourth in Pass EPA/play, 10th in CPOE, fifth in adj. YPA, third in air yard completion %, & 13th in on-target % (per 4for4’s Player Stat Explorer)
  • The WAS secondary is ranked 23rd by PFF
  • Hurts’s game logs: Week 1 @ DET 18/32:243 & 17:90:1 // Week 2 vs. MIN 26/31:333:1:1 & 11:57:2
  • His 30.9 DK ppg ranks fourth
  • His Week 3 DK salary is a career high
  • He’s scored 4x that salary four times
  • WAS ranked 21st in DK ppg allowed to QBs
  • Notable opposing QB scores since 2021: Patrick Mahomes 27.98 // Daniel Jones 29.46 // Jalen Hurts 29.64 // Dak Prescott 34.3 // Josh Allen 40.22

PHI Passing Attack

  • Snap share: DeVonta Smith 97.3% // Dallas Goedert 88% // A.J. Brown 87.3% // Quez Watkins 56%
  • Target share: Brown 33.3% // Smith 17.5% // Goedert 15.9%
  • Targets: Brown 21 // Smith 11 // Goedert 10
  • Brown ($7,300) ranks second in target share, second in air yard share, second in WOPR, ninth in yards per route run, & 20th in targets per route run
  • His game logs: 10/13:155 // 5/8:69
  • He ranks third in PFF receiving grade
  • His 20.2 DK ppg ranks 14th
  • He’s scored 4x his Week 3 DK salary six times in 53 career games
  • Smith’s ($5,200) game log: 0/4:0 // 7/7:80
  • He’s scored 20+ DK pts three times since entering the league in 2021
  • WAS ranks 28th in DK ppg allowed to WRs
  • Notable opposing WR scores since 2021: Emmanuel Sanders 26.4 // Amon-Ra St. Brown 42.4
  • Goedert ($4,700) ranks tied 12th in target share
  • His game logs: 3/4:60 // 5/6:82
  • His 11.1 DK ppg ranks eighth
  • He’s scored 15+ DK pts four times since 2021, including scores of 23.5 & 31.5
  • WAS ranked 12th in DK ppg allowed to TEs
  • Notable opposing TE scores since 2021: Robert Tonyan 16.3 // Travis Kelce 17.9 // Dalton Schultz 22.2 // Goedert 23.5

PHI Rushing Attack

  • Snap share: Miles Sanders 52.7% // Kenneth Gainwell 28%
  • Target share: Gainwell 9.5% // Sanders 7.9%
  • Targets: Gainwell 6 // Sanders 5
  • Attempts: Sanders 30 // Boston Scott 8 // Gainwell 7
  • Redzone rushes: Jalen Hurts 5 // Sanders 3 // Gainwell 2 // Scott 1
  • Sanders ($5,500) ranks fourth in rush yards over expected per carry, seventh in yards after contact per carry, & 20th in high value touch % (per 4for4)
  • He’s PFF seventh ranked RB in rushing grade
  • His game logs: 13:96:1 & 2/2:9 // 17:80 & 3/3:6
  • His 15.1 DK ppg ranks 14th
  • His Week 3 DK salary is $1,300 lower than his highest cost last year
  • He’s scored 20+ DK pts once since 2021
  • WAS ranks 26th in DK ppg allowed to RBs
  • Notable opposing RB scores since 2021: Scott 24.6 // CMC 24.9 // Alvin Kamara 29.2 // Cordarrelle Patterson 34.6

Carson Wentz

  • 18th in PFF passing grade behind the seventh ranked offensive line
  • Wentz ($6,300) ranks ninth in Pass EPA/play, 12th in adj. YPA, 12th in ADoT, & fourth in pocket time (per 4for4)
  • The PHI secondary is ranked eighth by PFF
  • Wentz’s game logs: Week 1 vs. JAX 27/41:313:4:2 // Week 2 @ DET 30/46:337:3:1
  • His 32.2 DK ppg ranks third
  • He’s scored 4x his Week 3 salary four times out of 19 games since leaving PHI
  • His scores the past two weeks are his career best and third best outputs
  • PHI ranks ninth in DK ppg allowed to QBs
  • Notable opposing QB scores since 2021: Trevor Siemian 26.16 // Dak Prescott 31.8 // Patrick Mahomes 32.72 // Justin Herbert 34.64

WAS Passing Attack

  • Snap share: Jahan Dotson 93.4% // Terry McLaurin 89.4% // Curtis Samuel 80.1% // Logan Thomas 67.5%
  • Target share: Samuel 23% // McLaurin 13.8% // Thomas 12.6% // Dotson 11.5%
  • Targets: Samuel 20 // McLaurin 12 // Thomas 11 // Dotson 10
  • Samuel’s ($5,100) game logs: 8/11:55:1 // 7/9:78:1
  • He ranks 25th in PFF receiving grade
  • His 21.6 DK ppg ranks ninth
  • Since 2020, Samuel’s scored 20+ DK pts eight times in 37 games
  • McLaurin ($6,400) ranks 12th in ADot (per 4for4)
  • His game logs: 2/4:58:1 // 4/8:75
  • Out of 46 career games, he’s scored 4x his Week 3 salary eight times
  • Dotson ($4,600) ranks seventh in end zone target share
  • His game logs: 3/5:40:2 // 4/5:59:1
  • He ranks 28th in PFF grade
  • His 17.9 DK ppg ranks 19th
  • PHI ranks 13th in DK ppg allowed to WRs
  • Notable opposing WR scores since 2021: Keenan Allen 25.4 // Mike Evans 29.7 // Cedrick Wilson 31.9 // Tyreek Hill 50.6
  • Thomas ($3,500) ranks sixth in air yard share, first in ADoT, & 12th in YPRR
  • His game logs: 3/6:45 // 3/5:37:1
  • His 10.1 DK ppg ranks 10th
  • He last scored 15+ DK pts in 2020 (16 & 26.1)
  • PHI ranks 26th in DK ppg allowed to TEs
  • Notable opposing TE scores since 2021: Foster Moreau 18 // T.J. Hockenson 18.9 // Dalton Schultz 26

WAS Rushing Attack

  • Snap share: Antonio Gibson 58.9% // J.D. McKissic 43%
  • Target share: Gibson 13.8% // McKissic 11.5%
  • Targets: Gibson 12 // McKissic 10
  • Attempts: Gibson 28 // McKissic 6
  • Redzone touches: Gibson 5 // Carson Wentz 1
  • Gibson ($6,400) ranks 10th in % of team carries, tied for fifth in % of team redzone carries, & eighth in high value touch % (per 4for4)
  • He’s PFF 21st ranked RB in rushing grade
  • His game logs: 14:58 & 7/8:72 // 14:28:1 & 2/4:13
  • Gibson’s 16.1 DK ppg ranks 12th
  • He’s scored 20+ DK pts six times in his last 18 games
  • McKissic’s ($5,300) game logs: 3:8 & 3/3:20 // 3:9 & 7/7:54
  • He’s scored 20+ DK pts twice in his last 13 games
  • PHI ranks 28th in DK ppg allowed to RBs
  • Notable opposing RB scores since 2021: Ezekiel Elliott 26.6 // D’Andre Swift 29.5 // Leonard Fournette 30.7