Game Overview ::
By mike johnson>>
- Matchups on both sides will encourage these teams to put the ball in the hands of their quarterbacks early and often.
- Arizona blitz tendencies leave them vulnerable to a Rams passing offense that is built to exploit it.
- The Rams lack of ability to create pressure on the quarterback so far this year could be problematic in containing Kyler Murray.
- Neither team is likely to have much success running the ball, and both teams project to increase their tempo from what we’ve seen in the first two weeks.
How los angeles Will Try To Win ::
The Rams got back on track in Week 2, dominating an overmatched Falcons team for most of the game before giving them a glimmer of hope late due to a lack of aggressiveness and a few self-imposed mistakes. After looking completely overmatched against the Bills, the Rams looked more like their old selves as they scored 31 points in that Week 2 game. However, they still have a ways to go before we can start comparing them to last year’s offensive juggernaut that won the Super Bowl. Week 3 may be just what they need, as they face a Cardinals defense that ranks 32nd in pass defense DVOA, according to Football Outsiders, and also ranks 32nd in PFF’s coverage grades. Adding fuel to that fire, the Cardinals are blitzing at a league-leading 50% rate and Matthew Stafford has historically been terrific against the blitz, including last year when he averaged a massive 8.6 passing yards per attempt and had a 7:1 TD-to-INT ratio across three meetings with these Cardinals.
The Rams are actually passing more to start this season than they did last year, with their offense throwing at a top-10 pass rate over expectation through two weeks. However, their pace of play has dropped considerably this year as they are currently 29th in the league in situation-neutral pace of play after ranking 4th in that same category last year. It is still early in the season, so those trends could just be the fluky result of a small sample size. The Rams were likely trying to slow the game down and keep Josh Allen off the field in Week 1, and then trying to ice the game against an inferior opponent in the Falcons in Week 2. This week should give us a better idea of whether this slower pace is more “signal” or “noise” in regards to their approach this year, as a matchup against a competitive divisional foe who they are tied with in the standings should encourage them to push the tempo and keep their foot on the gas. In regards to play calling, we are likely to see a pass-happy Rams approach this week due to the advantages in the passing game laid out above as well as the struggles that the Rams 29th graded rushing offense by PFF have had to start the year. The blitzing Cardinals are going to leave Cooper Kupp in man coverage and allow Matthew Stafford to pick them apart on the back end, so there will be little reason for the Rams to move to a more balanced approach in this matchup.
How Arizona Will Try To Win ::
By Dwprix >>
- 48.5 is the 4th highest total of the week
- LAR favored by 3.5
- ARZ has given up the most points in the league (67) facing LV & KC
- Last season LAR started 8-1 (only loss during that stretch was to ARZ)
- ARZ started 8-0
- These teams split their games last season: (ARZ 37 @ LAR 20 @ ) // (LAR 30 @ ARZ 23)
- ARZ has allowed 23 pts to LV & 44 to KC
- LAR has allowed 27 pts to ATL & 31 to BUF
- Last season vs ARZ: (23:30:287:3 TDs, 23.5 DK pts) // (26:41:280:2 TDs:1 INT, 20.3 DK pts)
- Stafford’s thrown for 300+ in four out of his last eight
- This season he’s one for two
- ARZ DK pts allowed to QB: (Carr 19.0) // (Mahomes 37.9)
- They rank 28th in defensive pass dvoa
- Targets: Kupp (14, 15) // Robinson (5, 2) // Skowronek (3,6)
- Kupps scored in 8 straight games including playoffs
- He has seven TDs in his last four
- Over this season & last season, he has 15 games of 100+ rec yds (23 games)
- ARZ held Davante Adams in check last week: 2:12:1 TD-7 tgts
- They also held all the KC WRs under 15 DK pts
- Akers had 15 carries to Henderson’s 10 last week
- He averaged just 2.9/rush // Henderson averaged 4.7/rush
- Wk1 Henderson out carried Akers 13-3
- Akers snaps Wk1: 12 // Henderson: 55
- Akers snaps Wk2: 27 // Henderson: 35
- ARZ allowed to RBs: (CEH 22.4 DK pts) // (Jacobs 9.1)
- Tgts: (9, 11)
- 10.0 tgts/g leads the TE position // tied for 14th overall
- His DK price went from $4.2k Wk2 to $4.5k Wk3
- ARZ allowed to TEs: (Waller 6:50:1 TD) // (Kelce 8:121:1 TD)
- Murray DK pts without Hopkins last season: (13.6 // 21.9 // 22.9 // 17.1 // 6.1)
- This season: (26.9 // 20.6)
- Pass attempts: (49 // 34) rush attempts: (5 // 5)
- Last season pass attempts: (34.4/g) // rush attempts: (6.3/g)
- It’s been 8 games since Murray has scored over 25 DK pts
- 25 DK pts would be 3.5x his salary this week
- LAR DK pts allowed to QB: (Mariota 16.4) // (Allen 33.5)
- Andy Isabella & Rondale Moore missed last week
- Snap % through two weeks: (Brown 94%) // (Green 80%) // (Dortch 80%)
- Brown targets: (11,6) // Green: (7, 4) // Dortch: (4, 9)
- LAR ranks 27th in defensive pass dvoa
- They let Stefon Diggs go 8:122:1 TD-14 targets Wk1
- James Conner was injured (ankle) in the 3rd qtr last week
- Darrel Williams played 60% of snaps after zero in Wk1
- Eno Benjamin played a little more than Wk1: 34% Wk1 // 43% Wk2
- Conner is questionable this week // Williams-$5.1k, Benjamin-$4.7k
- No ARZ RB has reached 3x salary yet
- Williams was the closest last week: 8:59:1 TD // 14.2 DK pts // 2.95x
- LAR ranks 1st in defensive rush dvoa
- They held ATL to 90 yds on 27 carries last week
- Ertz is tied for the team lead with 11 targets last week (8:75)
- LAR allowed to TEs: (Pitts 2:19-2 tgts // (Knox1:5-2 tgts)
- He’s scored 15.5 & 11.4 DK pts
- His salary on DK has went up $100 each week: $4.4k to $4.5k to $4.6k
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