Kickoff Sunday, Sep 25th 1:00pm Eastern

Bengals (
26.25) at

Jets (
19.75)

Over/Under 46.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Bengals Run D
9th DVOA/5th Yards allowed per carry
Jets Run O
17th DVOA/27th Yards per carry
Bengals Pass D
8th DVOA/26th Yards allowed per pass
Jets Pass O
23rd DVOA/20th Yards per pass
Jets Run D
12th DVOA/29th Yards allowed per carry
Bengals Run O
30th DVOA/23rd Yards per carry
Jets Pass D
32nd DVOA/30th Yards allowed per pass
Bengals Pass O
26th DVOA/7th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>
  • Cincinnati needs to figure things out quickly or they could dig themselves a hole they can’t get out of.
  • The Jets have been aggressive and fun through two weeks, and are quickly getting their young, explosive skill players more involved.
  • Much of this game’s potential will be decided by the ability of the Bengals offensive line to provide pass protection and how Zac Taylor approaches playcalling.
  • Joe Flacco and Joe Burrow are currently 1st and 2nd in the NFL in pass attempts.

How Cincinnati Will Try To Win ::

The Bengals have had a tough start this season, losing both of their games on walk-off field goals to teams that they should have had advantages over. As they fight through this “Super Bowl hangover,” they will have to look in the mirror at things they can do to get back to the magic that took them on their run through the AFC to end last season. One of their biggest issues has clearly been their offensive line play. Through two games Joe Burrow has taken a whopping 13 sacks. The Bengals put a lot of resources into improving their offensive line this offseason as that was their biggest issue against the Rams in their Super Bowl loss. However, things haven’t come together quite yet. 

Part of the issue has been their opponents to start the year each featured one of the premier pass rushers in the game – TJ Watt of the Steelers and Micah Parsons of the Cowboys. Those players individually do so many things to disrupt offenses and create chaos, while simultaneously drawing attention away from their teammates to help them create pressure as well. Luckily for the Bengals, this week the Jets have no such player of that caliber. Through two games, the Jets have only three sacks while allowing Lamar Jackson to throw for three touchdowns and giving up 8.5 yards per pass attempt to Jacoby Brissett.

As for method of approach, the Bengals still provide us with some uncertainty. They have run at a very high rate on first downs to start the year, and their running game has not been very efficient, averaging only three yards per carry on 49 rush attempts (not counting Joe Burrow scrambles). It is hard to tell, however, if this play calling is how they truly want to play or if it was a function of trying to deal with the elite pass rushes they have faced. My lean is that it is more of the latter, with the Bengals having an opportunity this week to open things up against a weaker pass defense, especially after seeing the results of two poor offensive showings with their run-heavy approach. Tee Higgins returned and played a good game in Week 2, so a full week of planning and practicing for the offense, and a desire to get back to who they are should give them a chance to be the offense that everyone expected to see after tearing things up to end 2021.

How new york Will Try To Win ::

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OVERVIEW

  • Middling game total of 45
  • CIN’s implied total of 25 is the seventh highest of Week 3
  • NYJ’s total of 20 is tied for sixth lowest
  • Sixth widest spread of the week
  • NYJ is the fastest offense through two weeks, averaging 24.8 seconds per play (per TeamRankings.com)
  • Per numberFire, NYJ ranks third in adjusted seconds per play
  • CIN ranks 26th
  • The defending AFC Champions are averaging just 4.3 yards per play on offense (31st)

Joe Burrow

  • 25th in PFF passing grade behind the 22nd ranked offensive line
  • Burrow ($6,600 Week 3 DK salary) ranks 33rd in adj. YPA, 27th in air yard completion %, 29th in ADoT, 29th in pocket time, & 23rd in on-target % (per 4for4’s Player Stat Explorer)
  • The NYJ secondary is ranked 24th by PFF
  • Burrow’s game logs: Week 1 vs. PIT 33/53:338:2:4 & 6:47 // Week 2 @ DAL 24/36:199:1 & 4:26
  • His rushing totals are the highest he’s had since his major injury in his rookie year
  • Prior to that injury, he had one game with 46 rushing yards and another with 34
  • He’s scored 4x his Week 3 DK salary five times in 31 games
  • NYJ ranks 18th in DK ppg allowed to QBs
  • Notable opposing QB scores since 2021: Mac Jones 25.18 // Taysom Hill 26.3 // Tom Brady 30.4

CIN Passing Attack

  • Snap share: Ja’Marr Chase 98.2% // Tyler Boyd 80.6% // Hayden Hurst 77.6% // Tee Higgins 51.8%
  • Target share: Chase 28.1% // Hurst 16.9% // Higgins 13.5% // Boyd 10.1%
  • Targets: Chase 25 // Hurst 15 // Higgins 12 // Boyd 9
  • Chase ($8,100) ranks 15th in target share, 16th in end zone target share, & 21st in WOPR (per 4for4)
  • His game logs: 10/16:129:1 // 5/9:54
  • He ranks 23rd in PFF receiving grade
  • His 21.4 DK ppg ranks 10th
  • Chase’s Week 3 DK salary is the second highest in his career
  • He’s scored 30+ DK pts four times in 22 games
  • Higgins ($6,100) game logs: 2/2:27 (left early due to injury) // 6/10:71:1
  • Since Chase joined the team, Higgins has scored 4x his Week 3 salary three times in 19 games
  • Boyd’s ($5,200) game logs: 4/7:33:1 // 2/2:17
  • He’s scored 20+ DK pts twice in the past 21 games
  • NYJ ranks 16th in DK ppg allowed to WRs
  • Notable opposing WR scores since 2021: Jaylen Waddle 20.6 // Devin Duvernay 21.4 // Stefon Diggs 23.1 // Diggs 33.2
  • Hurst ($3,900) ranks 12th in target share
  • His game logs: 5/8:46 // 5/7:24
  • Back in 2020, Hurst had three 15+ DK pt efforts
  • NYJ ranks 19th in DK ppg allowed to TEs
  • Notable opposing TE scores since 2021: Rob Gronkowski 21.5 // Kyle Pitts 29.9 // Dallas Goedert 31.5

Joe Mixon

  • Mixon ($7,600) ranks second in % team carries, 10th in % team redzone carries, & 18th in high value touch % (per 4for4)
  • He ranks 47th in PFF rushing grade
  • His game logs: 27:82 & 7/9:63 // 19:57 & 3/4:26
  • His 16.4 DK ppg ranks 10th
  • He’s scored 30+ DK pts twice in his last 21 games
  • NYJ ranks 23rd in DK ppg allowed to RBs
  • Notable opposing RB scores since 2021: Mixon 25.1 // Devin Singletary 25.2 // Alvin Kamara 27.5 // CMC 27.7 // Damien Harris 28.3 // Derrick Henry 28.7 // Nick Chubb 32.3 // Jonathan Taylor 37

Joe Flacco

  • Fourth in PFF passing grade behind the 21st ranked offensive line
  • Flacco ($5,300) ranks 13rd in Pass EPA/play (per 4for4)
  • The CIN secondary is ranked ninth by PFF
  • Flacco’s game logs: Week 1 vs. BAL 37/59:307:1:1 // Week 2 @ CLE 26/44:307:4
  • Week 2’s 30.88 DK pts were the sixth highest of the week, and his third highest in 82 career games
  • CIN ranks sixth in DK ppg allowed to QBs
  • Notable opposing QB scores since 2021: Kirk Cousins 25.04 // Justin Herbert 29.28 // Mike White 31.1

NYJ Passing Attack

  • Snap share: Tyler Conklin 95.5% // Elijah Moore 88.3% // Corey Davis 72.7% // Garrett Wilson 54.5%
  • Target share: Wilson 21.2% // Conklin 15.4$ // Davis 13.5% // Moore 11.5%
  • Targets: Wilson 22 // Conklin 16 // Davis 13 // Moore 12
  • Wilson ($5,400) ranks fifth in end zone target share & 13th in targets per route run (per 4for4)
  • His game logs: 4/8:52 // 8/14:102:2
  • He ranks 16th in PFF receiving grade
  • His 21.1 DK ppg ranks 11th
  • Davis ($4,900) ranks 17th in air yard share
  • His game logs: 6/9:77 // 2/4:83:1
  • He’s scored 20+ DK pts twice in his past 11 games
  • Moore’s ($5,000) game logs: 5/7:49 // 3/5:41
  • He’s scored 20+ DK pts three times out of 12 games
  • CIN ranks fifth in DK ppg allowed to WRs
  • Notable opposing WR scores since 2021: A.J. Brown 28.2 // Adam Thielen 30.2 // Davante Adams 40.6
  • Conklin’s ($3,800) game logs: 4/7:14:1 // 6/9:40
  • His 10.7 DK ppg ranks ninth
  • As a Viking last year, Conklin scored 15+ DK pts twice
  • CIN ranks 17th in DK ppg allowed to TEs
  • Notable opposing TE scores since 2021: Darren Waller 21.6 // Travis Kelce 25.5 // Mark Andrews 29.5 // George Kittle 37.1

NYJ Rushing Attack

  • Snap share: Michael Carter 60.4% // Breece Hall 37%
  • Target share: Carter 13.5% // Hall 9.6%
  • Targets: Carter 14 // Hall 11
  • Attempts: Carter 17 // Hall 13
  • Redzone touches: Hall 4 // Carter 2
  • Carter ($5,200) ranks second in broken tackle % & first in high value touch % (per 4for4)
  • He ranks 12th in PFF rushing grade
  • His game logs: 10:60 & 7/9:40 // 7:23 & 5/5:27
  • He has a ceiling DK score of 32.2 vs. CIN in Week 8 last year but has otherwise failed to hit 20 pts
  • Hall ($5,300) ranks 12th in rush yards over expected per carry & fourth in high value touch %
  • He ranks 29th in PFF rushing grade
  • His game logs: 6:23 & 6/10:38 // 7:50 & 1/1:10:1
  • CIN ranks 10th in DK ppg allowed to RBs
  • Notable opposing RB scores since 2021: Darrel Williams 25.7 // Najee Harris 31.2 // Carter 32.2 // Nick Chubb 33.3