This is, instead, a look at the player pool I’ll be fishing
:: covered in the Angles Pod (it’s highly recommended that you listen to the breakdown of the roster in order to see the thinking behind it, and in order to understand what we’re talking about when we look at a “bottom-up build”)
:: my “Tier 1” plays: the plays I feel confident leaning into across different types of builds; these players have a high ceiling and a low likelihood of price-considered failure
:: games, offenses, situations, or scenarios I’ll be looking to build around across my rosters
:: unique player pairings that can be used as foundational building blocks for tournament rosters
:: players who don’t fit into the categories above — either Upside pieces who don’t have the floor to be Blue Chips (and are not being focused on within my game-focused builds) or players who may not have a strong shot at ceiling, but are worth keeping in mind from a “role” perspective
:: players who are not going to be “featured” on my tighter builds (i.e., one could show up on a tighter build, but they are not being prioritized as such), but who I will be mixing and matching across some portion of my MME builds
With weeks to get ready for the slate, you might think that not a lot would have changed between my Player Grid and my builds — but this week, we got the Brock Bowers news as I was settling in with my thoughts, and we got the Tua news after the Player Grid was published. After weeks of assessing and narrowing things down to “the sharpest plays on the slate,” I also had an opportunity to start thinking about how crazy Week 1 typically is, and to think about how I might want to position myself to benefit from this craziness.
Because all my contests this week are 5k or fewer entries, I didn’t get too crazy anywhere (unless you count Geno Smith as crazy…), but a few things did shift for me since the Thursday publication of the Player Grid. And Geno was one of those “few things.”
Actually, I was surprised to flip through the Player Grid and see that Geno didn’t earn a mention. I was posting on X about this play before content even got underway, and I was building thoughts around this play in my Journal early in the week. I talked about this play on the Block Party with Pete on Friday. But apparently, there was a window of time in the middle of the week when I moved off it, and that was when the snapshot of the Player Grid was taken.
In short: I think the Jets’ offense is solid this year. I think Geno has a bounce-back. And I think this is a good spot for him. Geno + Breece Hall is almost exactly the same price as the Jalen + Goedert and Lamar + Andrews blocks I’ve been talking about this week. Depending on where you look, Geno + Breece projects slightly better or slightly worse than those pairs. And while I consider those pairs to have higher ultimate ceilings, I think Geno + Breece has a higher median score. Add Garrett Wilson (who I have on my Lamar + Andrews and Hurts + Goedert rosters already), and — assuming TE in the Flex on my Goedert and Andrews rosters (which I have), it becomes a 2 v 2 with an ownership and correlation case to be made for it over the other two, especially in smaller-field play. Put it all together, and just over 40% of my bankroll this week is allocated to Geno.
The rest of my bankroll is spread relatively evenly across :: Hurts // Lamar // Jayden // Burrow // Herbert // Bryce.
“Jayden?” you ask.
Jayden.
I posted this on X on Saturday night, but Jayden Daniels has played Philly three times (playoffs included), and he scored 36.5 in his second meeting with the Eagles, with five touchdown passes (and no pass catcher going over 70 yards). The second time, he put up 26.0. We have Jayden projected for 1.2% ownership, ahead of only Rush, Deshaun, and Cam. I decided to take a swing here, against a defense I don’t typically attack.
In case you’re wondering: yes, I still like any quarterbacks (Kyler? Shough?) I’ve mentioned this week who didn’t make the cut here. I probably like some others as well. It’s Week 1. Things get weird. There’s a lot you can make a solid case for.
At running back, my exposure from highest to lowest goes :: Gibbs // Saquon // Breece // Hampton // Chase Brown // JT // Swift.
At wide receiver, my exposure from highest to lowest goes :: Garrett Wilson // Olave // QJ // Ja’Marr // St. Brown // Coker & TMac // Burden // Tre Tucker // Wan’Dale Robinson // Devonta // Pittman.
At tight end, my exposure from highest to lowest goes :: Juwan // Mayer // Goedert // Andrews // Chig (with Jayden) // Loveland // Njoku // LaPorta.
At DST, my exposure from highest to lowest goes :: Jags // Browns // Vikings // Steelers // Lions // Texans.
If you’re new here, how to look at this list:
Nearly every week this season, my final list will prove to be a sharp pool of players, with some big hits, but also with some players who flop. There will also be some big hits that come from players who are not in my pool. Treat my pool as what it is, then: a snapshot of one probably-sharp pool. And remember: you can’t win without a sharp pool of players; but a sharp pool of players alone can’t win you a tourney. Build sharp rosters for the specific contests you’re playing. Look for ways to turn the math in your favor. That’s what DFS is about.
I’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards!
-JM
Salary Remaining: $6K
Find Week 1 Contest Link and Rules in Discord
There are some players I could bump up here, but I’m playing it safe by treating all my top plays as Light Blue this week.
“KOC can catch lightning with Kyler”
Ja’Marr Chase averaged 21 DK points per game last year. Justin Jefferson averaged 21 DK points per game in 2023-2024. Chase has Burrow and a higher implied team total, and is clearly the “better play”; but Jefferson isn’t a major underdog to Chase, and Chase is sure to draw much higher ownership. What’s more: Jefferson is paired with a cheaper quarterback who can add floor with his legs. I think there’s a good chance we’re paying $1.5k to $2k more for this stack in four to six weeks, and I want to be out ahead of that.
This won’t “set your roster apart from the field,” but it will be a nice differentiator if it hits, while freeing up a bit of extra salary for chasing upside elsewhere.
The story plays out differently, and you don’t get first place — which is really all that matters.
This is my narrowest pool, which means it’s the pool likeliest to change a bit as I move deeper into builds. If it changes throughout Saturday night, I’ll add an update in this space.
If I were building for single-entry // three-entry Max, my tightened-up player pool would be:
Joe Burrow || Lamar Jackson || Jalen Hurts || Caleb Williams || Justin Herbert || Kyler Murray || Bryce Young
I’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!
-JM
