Week 3 Matchups

Shoutout to (some of!!!) the big weekends the OWS Fam booked in Week 2!!!


From what we know, the OWS Fam accounted for…
  • 3 ‘Major Tourney’ wins on the DraftKings Main Slate
  • A Top-10 Milly Maker finish
  • A Top-10 Wildcat finish
  • Yahoo Baller win
  • A HUGE wave of additional top finishes and big cashes on FanDuel, DraftKings, and Yahoo, including Afternoon-Only slate and Showdowns

Whose Turn Is It This Week???


Kickoff Thursday, Sep 22nd 8:15pm Eastern

Steelers (
16.75) at

Browns (
21.25)

Over/Under 38.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Steelers Run D
15th DVOA/32nd Yards allowed per carry
Browns Run O
3rd DVOA/4th Yards per carry
Steelers Pass D
12th DVOA/9th Yards allowed per pass
Browns Pass O
11th DVOA/27th Yards per pass
Browns Run D
30th DVOA/12th Yards allowed per carry
Steelers Run O
18th DVOA/29th Yards per carry
Browns Pass D
18th DVOA/5th Yards allowed per pass
Steelers Pass O
26th DVOA/15th Yards per pass

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Week 3 begins with what looks like one of the more boring weeks of the season as the Steelers visit the Browns. This game has a total of just 38.5 points with Cleveland favored by 4.5, giving the Browns an implied total of 21.5 while the Steelers clock in at just 17. Yikes. 

Cleveland

Cleveland is the more exciting team here and should draw most of the ownership so we’ll start there. Nick Chubb had a massive Week 2 performance with three end zone trips, though he’s played just 54% of the snaps so far this season. Despite the low snap count, Chubb is getting the ball when he’s on the field, with 20+ running back opportunities in each game, a workload he only saw in seven out of his 14 games last year. Kareem Hunt has played about 51% of the snaps with 15 opportunities per game, pretty close to what he saw in his healthy games last season. The Browns, as they have for a few years now, are heavily focused on the run game with a passing play percentage of just 45.3% on the young season (ranked 30th in the NFL), while Chubb and Hunt are a 1A/1B pairing who will both see plenty of work in a given game. Surprise surprise, Cleveland doesn’t want to put the ball in Jacoby Brissett’s hands. They’re happy to run all game as long as the game script allows for it. Despite the modest snaps, the Brissett at QB situation has resulted in Chubb seeing larger workloads so far vs. his norms, and we should expect that to continue until DeShaun Watson returns. I’m comfortable playing Chubb and Hunt together, though I would probably run a max two of Chubb/Hunt/Brissett rule, and would definitely do so for any roster in which one of them is in the captain spot unless you’re trying to bet on a one-sided beatdown. Behind the two primary guys, Demetric Felton will get a touch or two and can be used as an MME punt play with upside should something happen to Chubb or Hunt during the game.

Showdown Ownership Projections!

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In the passing game, Brissett has averaged 30 attempts per game so far. So, while he isn’t at Justin Fields levels of low pass volume, there isn’t a lot to go around in this offense, especially once you notice that he’s only averaging 6.2 yards per completion. Brissett is a short-area QB who can be reasonably accurate but isn’t going to throw up many deep balls, meaning you’re going to need volume, touchdowns, or broken plays for receivers to pay off here. Amari Cooper is obviously your best bet here, as he leads the team with 16 targets on the season. Cooper is coming off of a big game, which has driven up his price, and $9,400 is a lot to pay for a receiver whose likeliest projection is six or seven short targets, but you can view him as a pay-up to be contrarian play. Behind Cooper, Donovan Peoples-Jones looks to have seized the second WR spot. DPJ saw 11 targets in Week 1 and just one in Week 2, showing the volatility and low floor of this passing offense. But, at just $5,400, I’m willing to take shots on his ceiling, even if a broken play is one of the only paths to pass-catcher ceiling on this team. I want to bet on the guys who are fast enough to take advantage of a lapse in coverage (or just burn the defender). David Bell and Anthony Schwartz round out the WR group, with Bell’s role likely to grow through the season as Schwartz’s diminishes. But, this is a team that runs 12 personnel at a very high rate so these two guys are just MME dart throws at best. At tight end, David Njoku is playing almost every snap, and so far it has resulted in just six targets. Harrison Bryant is playing behind him and has eight targets. Slim pickings down here, my friends, but TE3 Jesse James is out and that might offer Bryant a bit of additional opportunity. The entire Cleveland passing attack is in the “tournament only” pool and should all be viewed as low floor, modest ceiling options. Njoku and Bryant are almost the same prices, and Njoku is clearly the better option to me as he’s been on the field more but the field will likely build this way as well so Bryant could potentially come in lower owned than he should be for a guy who is one of the few legitimately involved players on this offense. 

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Jacoby Brissett:

  • Brissett had 5 games of 15+ DK pts in 2017 (IND), but just 3 of 20+ DK pts (pass att): 22 (34) // 23.5 (30) // 27.8 (24)
  • Brissett had 9 games of 15+ DK pts in 2019 (IND), but just 4 of 20+ DK pts (pass att): 22.6 (36) // 23.5 (46) // 23.8 (37) // 31.6 (39)
  • Brissett had 3 games of 15+ DK pts in 2021 (MIA), but just 1 of 20+ DK pts (pass att): 20.3 (49)
  • Brissett has 10.9 & 16.5 DK pts on 34 & 27 att in two weeks as CLE starter
  • Stefanski’s rank in pass att as OC or HC: 30 // 28 // 28
  • PIT allowed the 10th fewest QB DK pts/g in 2021, and so far have allowed 3 TDs to 5 INT in 2022 (though now without TJ Watt for the time being)

CLE WRs:

  • WR tg through 2 weeks: Cooper (6, 10) // DPJ (11, 1) // Schwartz (2, 0) // Bell (0, 1)
  • Production through 2 wks: Cooper (3:17 // 9:101:1) // DPJ (6:60 // 0:0)
  • TY Hilton finished with 60+ yds in in 4/16 games in 2017 (3g of 20+ DK pts)
  • TY Hilton finished with 60+ yds in 4/10 games in 2019 (2g of 20+ DK pts)
  • Waddle & Parker finished with 60+ yds in 1 of 5 Brissett games each in 2021 (0g of 20+ DK pts)
  • Cooper’s two career games vs PIT: 7:88:1 (2015, 15th def pass DVOA) // 5:67 (2020, 1st def pass DVOA)
  • WRs vs PIT in 2022: Chase (10:129:1), Boyd (4:33:1) // Agholor (6:110:1), Meyers (9:95)
  • Cooper had just 3 games of 20+ DK pts with DAL in 2021: 21.5 (WAS) // 29.2 (MIN) // 41.9 (TB)

CLE TEs:

  • TE targets through 2 weeks: Njoku (1, 5) // Bryant (4, 4)
  • Production through 2 weeks: Njoku (1:7 // 3:32) // Bryant (2:18 // 3:45)
  • Playing against Hurst, Henry, & Jonnu in the first two weeks, only TE production allowed so far by PIT: Hurst (5:46)
  • 2017 (IND): Doyle had 40+ yds in 9/15 g
  • 2019 (IND): Doyle had 40+ yds in 4/16 g
  • 2021 (MIA): Gesicki had 40+ yds in 5/5 g with Brissett
  • Bryant had as many games of 40+ yds (2) as Njoku did in all of 2021

CLE RBs:

  • Rush att through 2g: Chubb (22 // 17) // Hunt (11 // 13)
  • Targets through 2g: Chubb (1 // 3) // Hunt (4 // 2)
  • Total yds:TD through 2g: Chubb (143 // 117:3) // Hunt (70:2 // 74)
  • DK pts through 2g: Chubb (18.3 // 32.3) // Hunt (23 // 9.4)
  • RBs vs PIT (touches:yds:TDs): Mixon (36:145) // Harris (17:87:1), Stevenson (11:51)
  • Chubb’s career yds:TDs vs PIT: 21 // 75 // 92 // 79 // 108:1 // 145:1 // 69 // 58
  • Hunt’s career yds:TDs vs PIT: 110 (KC) // 80:1 (KC) // 58 // 65:1 // 57 // 41 // 61:2

Mitchell Trubisky:

  • Trubisky has yet to reach just 200 pass yds in first 2 games with PIT
  • QBs vs CLE: Baker (235:1:1) // Flacco (307:4:0)
  • Flacco was a Chubb slide away from finishing with 184 yds, 2 TD
  • CLE ranked 7th in def pass DVOA in 2021
  • Trubisky yds/att in 2022: 5.1 vs CIN // 5.1 vs NE

PIT WRs:

  • Targets: Diontae (12 // 10) // Claypool (6 // 6) // Pickens (3 // 3)
  • Yards: Diontae (55 // 57) // Claypool (54 // 26) // Pickens (3 // 23)
  • DK pts: Diontae (12.5 // 11.7) // Claypool (9.4 // 6.6) // Pickens (1.3 // 3.3)
  • PIT WRs vs CLE in 2021: Diontae (98 // 31:1) // Claypool (61 // 17)
  • WRs vs CLE: Anderson (102:1), Moore (43) // Wilson (102:2), Davis (83:1), Moore (41)
  • Diontae has 9 tg over 10+ yds // Claypool has 1 tg over 10+ yds

Pat Freiermuth:

  • Freiermuth has 10 & 7 tg through 2 games
  • Production: 5:75 // 4:22:1
  • Vs CLE in 2021: 4:44:1 (7) // 5:22 (6)
  • TEs vs CLE in 2022: Ian Thomas (2:53) // Conklin (6:40)
  • Freiermuth has 6 tg over 10+ yds
  • Freiermuth has 2 RZ targets

Najee Harris:

  • Touches through 2g: (10 att, 2 tg) // (15 att, 6 tg)
  • Total production through 2g: 12:26:1 // 21:89
  • Harris has 5 RZ touches through 2g
  • Harris vs 2021 CLE: 29:120:1 // 31:206:1
  • RBs vs CLE: CMC (14:57:1) // Carter (12:50), Hall (8:60:1)

Kickoff Sunday, Sep 25th 1:00pm Eastern

Saints (
21.5) at

Panthers (
19.5)

Over/Under 41.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Saints Run D
13th DVOA/4th Yards allowed per carry
Panthers Run O
16th DVOA/20th Yards per carry
Saints Pass D
13th DVOA/14th Yards allowed per pass
Panthers Pass O
31st DVOA/29th Yards per pass
Panthers Run D
10th DVOA/18th Yards allowed per carry
Saints Run O
9th DVOA/15th Yards per carry
Panthers Pass D
19th DVOA/4th Yards allowed per pass
Saints Pass O
24th DVOA/32nd Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By hILOW >>
  • Carolina has a lot to figure out offensively, with primary struggles coming through the form of situational play calling.
  • Carolina’s defense utilizes “light” packages and unique blitz looks to keep pass plays in front of them – this scheme is much better suited to playing in neutral-to-positive environments.
  • The Panthers have run only 111 combined offensive plays over two games, or about 16 (eight plays per game) lower than league average through two games.
  • The Saints have been forced into tempo during the second half in each of their first two games, likely indicating a team that would otherwise like to slow things down offensively.
  • New Orleans has run only 127 combined offensive plays from scrimmage through two games.
  • The combined time of possession through two games for these two teams is a laughable 51:04, meaning there are almost two full possessions unaccounted for.

How nEW ORLEANS Will Try To Win ::

The Saints rank right around league average in both first half pace of play and situation-neutral pace of play, but their overall pace of play has been synthetically propped up by a blistering second half pace of play, indicating to me that they would like to run a slower pace but have been forced into tempo later in games. They also rank right around league average in pass rate over expectation, which is notable considering the injury quarterback Jameis Winston is playing through. Furthermore, much of their offensive game plan likely revolves around the respective health of running back Alvin Kamara and the aforementioned Jameis Winston. Winston fractured his back in the season opener and then left Week 2’s contest with an ankle injury, while Alvin Kamara is dealing with multiple painful rib cartilage fractures, likely requiring Novocaine or Lidocaine injections on game day and a protective pad. It’s difficult to read into the 66% pass rate from Week 2 against a Tampa Bay defense that has led the league in pass attempts against each of the previous two seasons, meaning I’d expect the Saints to want to bias their attack towards the ground if possible, considering the status of their starting quarterback. The good news for them is their opponent this week utilizes a defensive scheme tailored to erasing the pass, with unique “light” packages designed to clog the areas of the field where bulk damage can be done.

As things currently stand, I expect Alvin Kamara to be held out for another week as he tends to his rib cartilage fractures, meaning we should expect another week of Mark Ingram, Tony Jones, and Adam Prentice backfield usage. Most notably amongst those three was the lack of a meaningful snap rate bump for Ingram, which could be explained away as matchup specific last week. The Saints offensive line has severely underperformed through two weeks, leading to a sub-4.0 net-adjusted line yards metric against the Panthers (3.945). I would tentatively expect Ingram’s snap rate to see a small boost as the primary rusher without Kamara, with Jones utilized in a change of pace/third down role. Overall, this is not a positive situation for the Saints to find themselves in on the ground.

Equally as frustrating as the ground game to date is the relative rotational roles we’re seeing from primary pass-catchers through two weeks, with second-year tight end Juwan Johnson (76.5%), rookie wide receiver Chris Olave (75.0%), veteran slot man Jarvis Landry (70.3%), and veteran alpha Michael Thomas (69.5%) all near even in snap rates played. Of note, Thomas saw a marked increase in snap rate in Week 2, jumping from 61% to a team-leading 76% at the wide receiver position. That said, it will be difficult to trust any for a weekly floor if the tight rotation of pass-catchers holds for an offense utilizing heavy 12-personnel alignments. I’m certain most analysts and “fanalysts” will point to the absurd 334 air yard, 13-target, 5/80/0 performance in Week 2 for Chris Olave, but the Buccaneers ran the highest rate of Cover-1 man in 2021 and the Panthers run some of the highest rates of Cover-3 zone, meaning we aren’t likely to see Jameis target a streaking Olave in man coverage as often this week. That should leave Michael Thomas, Juwan Johnson, and Jarvis Landry to soak up the underneath targets in the areas of the field Carolina is likely to allow.

How cAROLINA Will Try To Win ::

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Baker Mayfield:

  • NOR allowed 23 pts to ATL in first 2.5 quarters of season, but have allowed just 16 (1 TD) in the 5.5 quarters since (Mariota & Brady)
  • Only QBs to score multiple TDs vs 2021 NOR: Darnold (2) // Jones (2) // Brady (4) // Ryan (2) // Allen (4)
  • Mariota & Brady have just 1 TD each vs 2022 NOR
  • Mayfield has thrown just 27 & 29 passes to start 2022
  • Mayfield is averaging just 195:1:0.5 through two games
  • In 2021, Mayfield averaged 14.5 DK pts/g, only scoring 20+ once

CAR WRs:

  • Moore has just 3 rec & 43 yds in both games in 2022
  • Anderson has a 75 yd touchdown to his name in 2022, and other than that 4:27 & 3:32
  • 2022 WRs vs NOR: London (5:74), Zaccheaus (4:49) // Evans (3:61), Perriman (3:45:1)
  • CAR WRs vs NOR since 2020: Moore (4:93:2 // 5:101 // 8:79:1 // 3:29) // Anderson (6:74 // 3:40 // 3:38 // 2:10)
  • Moore’s high since W4 of 2021 is just 17.3 DK pts

Christian McCaffrey:

  • CMC touches in full games in 2021: 30 // 30 // 19 // 23 // 18
  • CMC in 2022: (10 att, 4 tg) // (15 att, 5 tg)
  • CMC finished with 25+ DK pts in 4 of 5 full games in 2021
  • CMC in 2022: 15.7 & 19.8 DK pts
  • 2022 RBs vs NOR: CPatt (22:120:1, 3:16) // Fournette (24:65, 2:9)
  • Cordarelle Patterson and Miles Sanders are the only two RBs to rush for 100+ yds vs NOR since middle of 2017
  • Following a trend of NOR being extremely tough vs RBs since 2018::
  • NOR ranked 1st in def rush DVOA in 2021
  • Only 7 RBs finished with 50+ rush yds vs 2021 NOR, including CMC (24:72:1)
  • RBs to score 20+ DK pts vs NOR since 2018: Saquon (22, 29.6) // Latavius (20.5) // Zeke (25.6) // CMC (34.3, 22.8, 26, 24.7) // Mostert (24.9) // Dalvin (28.0) // Sanders (32.6) // Fournette (21.7) // Gibson (21.2) // Patterson (22.6, 25.6)
  • That’s 15 RB scores of 20+ DK pts allowed in the last 72 games, and just 7 of 25+
  • 14/15 scored a TD /// 6/15 scored 2 TDs /// 10/15 had 5+ rec /// 13/15 had 6+ DK rec pts

Jameis Winston:

  • 2021 CAR allowed the 4th fewest QB DK pts/g, with the only QBs to score 25+ DK pts being Dak Prescott, Kirk Cousins, & Tom Brady
  • Winston’s game vs CAR came with a myriad of excusable asterisks (Covid absences, injuries, etc), but it wasn’t pretty (111:0:2, 4 sacks)
  • Winston has thrown 9 TDs to 16 INT vs CAR in his career, including 1 TD to 7 INT in the last two matchups alone
  • Winston in 2022: 269:2:0 // 236:1:3
  • QBs vs CAR in 2022: Brissett (147:1) // Jones (176:1)
  • CAR has the 6th most pressures through 2 weeks per PFR
  • Winston has taken 10 sacks in two games

NOR WRs:

  • Thomas’s average targets/g by season: 8.1 // 9.3 // 9.2 // 11.6 // 7.9
  • Thomas has received 8 & 9 tg in 2022
  • Other tg: Olave (3 / 13) // Landry (9 / 5)
  • Thomas in 2022: 5:57:2 // 6:65:1
  • Olave has the 8th highest % of team air yds in the NFL
  • 2021 CAR allowed the 6th fewest WR DK pts/g
  • 2022 WRs vs CAR: DPJ (6:60), Cooper (3:17) // Shepard (6:34), James (5:51)
  • Thomas career DK pts vs CAR: 18.8 // 11.8 // 21.7 // 18 // 11.9 // 29.1 // 7.7

NOR TEs:

  • Juwan Johnson has 5 & 7 tg through 2 weeks
  • Johnson routes/dropback: 32/40 // 33/47
  • Johnson has 43 & 40 yds in first two 2022 games
  • CAR allowed the 11th fewest TE DK pts/g in 2021

Alvin Kamara:

  • 2021 CAR allowed the 4th fewest RB DK pts/g
  • RB touches:yds vs 2022 CAR: Chubb (23:143), Hunt (15:70:2) // Saquon (25:88)
  • In 2021, AK’s total touches without Ingram: 24 // 14 // 28 // 26 // 24 // 31 // 32 // 19 // 32
  • In 2021, AK’s total touches with Ingram: 23 // 20 // 17 // 17
  • AK had 9 rush att & 4 tg in Week 1 vs ATL before missing W2 with his ongoing rib injury
  • AK vs CAR in 2021: 8:5, 4:25 // 13:32, 5:68:1

Kickoff Sunday, Sep 25th 1:00pm Eastern

Texans (
18) at

Bears (
21)

Over/Under 39.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Texans Run D
29th DVOA/31st Yards allowed per carry
Bears Run O
11th DVOA/14th Yards per carry
Texans Pass D
16th DVOA/23rd Yards allowed per pass
Bears Pass O
32nd DVOA/30th Yards per pass
Bears Run D
24th DVOA/23rd Yards allowed per carry
Texans Run O
23rd DVOA/32nd Yards per carry
Bears Pass D
15th DVOA/3rd Yards allowed per pass
Texans Pass O
29th DVOA/28th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>
  • Houston has played at the league’s fourth fastest situation-neutral pace of play and the fastest pace of play in the first half through two weeks.
  • The Texans also rank in the top 10 in pass rate over expectation this year.
  • Chicago appears to be playing fast, with the league’s ninth fastest situation-neutral pace of play, but their first-half pace of play (more indicative of intent early in the year) ranks all the way down at 31st.
  • The Bears have the lowest pass rate over expectation in the league, notably allowing Fields to attempt only 28 total passes through two games.
  • The Houston defense has somehow missed 27 (!!!) tackles over two games, which is a completely abhorrent number.
  • There are over eight minutes of lost time of possession between these two teams (51:58 combined ToP).
  • The combined yards per carry of running backs in this game is a laughable 2.825.

How houston Will Try To Win ::

The Texans somewhat surprisingly come into Week 3 with the league’s fastest first-half pace of play and 10th highest pass rate over expectation, which is a far cry from what we all thought coming into the season under Lovie Smith. Pep Hamilton told us all off-season that he had faith in his second-year quarterback. Maybe we were just too thickheaded to listen? The Texans have run a respectable 128 offensive plays from scrimmage through two games, which lands slightly below league average, but lands at 25th in average time of possession. Houston’s offensive line surprisingly ranks in the top half of the league, particularly strong in pass protection to start the year, which could be a signal of their slight pass-leaning ways (although it is much more likely to be due to their sieve-like defense).

The ground game for the Texans has been a veritable disaster for fantasy purposes over two weeks, with Rex Burkhead and rookie Dameon Pierce taking turns in a featured role (71%/29% in Week 1 and 37%/62% in Weeks 2 for Burkhead and Pierce, respectively). Houston running backs have combined to muster just 2.92 yards per carry behind an offensive line generating only 3.72 adjusted line yards. The matchup yields a trivial 4.065 net-adjusted line yards metric. The positional target rate for Houston running backs in 2022 is 18.1%. Everything about the running back situation hints at disaster here. I just thought it would be fun to list out everything I could find regarding the situation. Suffice it to say, there isn’t much else to discuss with this one.

Brandin Cooks holds a massive 30.6% team target market share on a 96% route participation rate, has the 10th most air yards thus far at 211 (good for 34.4% of the team share), but has underperformed to the tune of WR35 overall numbers. I guess that’s what happens when you catch only 11 of 22 targets and fail to find the end zone. I lead with Cooks because this offense is truly “Cooks or bust” through the air, as no other pass-catcher has seen a snap rate over 67% over our two-week sample. Nico Collins, Chris Moore, and Chris Conley have rotated through behind Cooks at wide receiver while blocking tight end Pharaoh Brown leads the team in snap rate at the position, leaving only scraps for Brevin Jordan and newcomer O.J. Howard to fight over in the “pass-catching tight end role.”

How chicago Will Try To Win ::

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OVERVIEW

  • Tied for the third lowest game total of Week 3 (40.5, as of late Tuesday)
  • HOU’s implied total of 18.75 is the third lowest
  • Through two weeks, HOU’s offense is eighth in fewest seconds per play (per TeamRankings.com)
  • CHI is 23rd
  • Per numberFire, HOU ranks sixth in adjusted seconds per play and CHI ranks seventh
  • Both teams have averaged just 14.5 ppg, fueled by both teams ranking bottom four in yards per play
  • CHI has averaged just 48.5 offensive plays per game, second fewest to SEA’s 48
  • When excluding OT, each team ranks bottom eight in average time of possession
  • HOU is tied for first in punts per game, CHI is tied for fifth

Davis Mills

  • 21st in PFF passing grade
  • Behind PFF’s 15th ranked offensive line, Mills ($5,000 Week 3 DK salary) ranks 31st in Pass EPA/play, 31st in Completion Percentage Over Expected, & 24th in adjusted yards per attempt (per 4for4’s NFL Player Stat Explorer)
  • The CHI secondary is ranked 27th by PFF
  • His game lines so far: Week 1 vs. IND 23/37:240:2 for 16.5 DK pts // Week 2 @ DEN 19/38:177 for 7.2 DK pts
  • Last year, he scored 20+ DK pts four separate times
  • CHI ranks 10th in DK ppg allowed to QBs
  • Notable opposing QB scores since 2021: Matthew Stafford 27.34 // Jimmy Garoppolo 30.28 // Kyler Murray 30.82 // Aaron Rodgers 32.64

HOU Passing Attack

  • Snap share: Brandin Cooks 89.5% // Pharaoh Brown 68.4% // Nico Collins 66.9% // Brevin Jordan 48.9%
  • Target share: Cooks 29.3% // Collins 16% // Jordan 8% // Brown 8%
  • Targets: Cooks 22 // Collins 12 // Jordan 6 // Brown 6
  • Cooks ($5,800) ranks 70th in PFF passing grade
  • Per 4for4, he ranks 11th in target share, tied for seventh in end zone target share, 13th in WOPR, & 17th in targets per route run
  • His game logs: Week 1 vs. IND 7/12:82 // Week 2 @ DEN 4/10:54
  • As a Texan, Cooks has scored 4x his Week 3 salary five times since 2020
  • Collins ($4,000) game logs: 2/3:26 // 4/9:58
  • Still yet to hit 15 DK pts
  • CHI ranks 17th in DK ppg allowed to WRs
  • Eight opposing WRs have scored 20+ DK pts since 2021 
  • Jordan ($2,600) ranks 11th in ADoT
  • In nine career games, he’s yet to hit 15 DK pts
  • CHI ranks third in DK ppg allowed to TEs
  • Notable opposing TE scores since 2021: Mark Andrews 15.3 // Gerald Everett 16.8 // Pat Freiermuth 21.3

HOU Rushing Attack

  • Snap share: Rex Burkhead 54.9% // Dameon Pierce 44.4%
  • Target share: Rex 14.7% // Pierce 2.7%
  • Targets: Rex 11 // Pierce 2
  • Attempts: Pierce 26 // Rex 14
  • Pierce ($5,000) has all three of the red zone attempts
  • After getting out snapped 20 to 50 in Week 1, Pierce led Week 2 39 to 23
  • He ranks 12th in % team carries & fourth in broken tackle % (per 4for4)
  • He’s PFF’s 20th ranked RB in rushing grade
  • His game logs: 11:33 & 1/1:6 // 15:69 & 1/1:8
  • Rex’s ($4,900) game logs: 14:40 & 5/8:30 // 0:0 & 2/3:9
  • CHI ranks 21st in DK ppg allowed to RBs
  • Notable opposing RB scores since 2021: Kareem Hunt 27.5 // Aaron Jones 35

Justin Fields

  • 33rd in PFF passing grade behind the 30th ranked offensive line
  • Fields ($5,600) has fewer pass attempts than Ryan Tannehill, Cooper Rush, Trey Lance, & Dak Prescott, all of whom have played in fewer than two full games unlike Fields
  • Jimmy Garoppolo had just seven fewer attempts in his lone game than Fields’s 28 on the season
  • Fields has fewer rush attempts than Trey Lance, who again has played less than two full games
  • Per 4for4, he ranks 30th in Pass EPA/play, 30th in CPOE, 29th in adj. YPA, 34th in percentage of air yards that are completed, 28th in on-target %, & 34th in percentage of dropbacks in which he was sacked
  • The HOU secondary is ranked dead last by PFF
  • His game lines: Week 1 vs. SF 8/17:121:2:1 & 11:28 // Week 2 @ GB 7/11:70:0:1 & 8:20:1
  • In a 27-10 loss vs. a division rival, Fields only had 11 pass attempts @ GB
  • In 13 career games, he’s scored 20+ DK pts just twice and he’s yet to score 30
  • HOU ranks 13th in DK ppg allowed to QBs
  • Notable opposing QB scores since 2021: Trevor Lawrence 25.08 // Matthew Stafford 27.2 // Ryan Tannehill 27.28 // Sam Darnold 28.26

CHI Passing Attack (or lack thereof)

  • Snap share: Darnell Mooney 89.9% // Cole Kmet 83.8% // Equanimeous St. Brown 73.7%
  • Target share: ESB 25% // Mooney 17.9% // Ryan Griffin 10.7% // Kmet 7.1%
  • Targets: ESB 7 // Mooney 5 // Griffin 3 // Kmet 2
  • 47 different WRs had more targets in Week 1 than Mooney ($5,300) has had through two weeks
  • 49 did the same thing in Week 2
  • He’s PFF’s 95th ranked WR in receiving grade
  • Mooney has scored 4x his Week 3 DK salary three times since entering the league in 2020
  • ESB’s Week 3 DK salary of $3,900 is the second highest of his career
  • He’s yet to hit 15 DK pts
  • HOU ranks 24th in DK ppg allowed to WRs
  • Nine opposing WRs have scored 20+ DK pts since 2021
  • Kmet ($3,400) has just one target each of the first two weeks, which he has turned into zero production
  • HOU ranks 16th in DK ppg allowed to TEs
  • Notable opposing TE scores since 2021: Anthony Firkser 15.6 // Zach Ertz 16 // Hunter Henry 19.5 // Dawson Knox 20.7

CHI Rushing Attack

  • Snap share: David Montgomery 71.7% // Khalil Herbert 25.3%
  • Target share: Montgomery 21.4% // Herbert 7.1%
  • Targets: Montgomery 6 // Herbert 2
  • Attempts: Montgomery 32 // Herbert 13
  • Red zone attempts: Justin Fields 6 // Montgomery 4 // Herbert 3
  • Montgomery ($5,900) ranks first in broken tackle % & seventh in yards after contact per carry (per 4for4)
  • He’s ranked 49th in PFF’s rushing grade
  • His game logs: 17:26 & 3/4:24 // 15:122 & 2/2:14
  • His Week 3 DK salary is nearly $2,000 lower than his career high of $7,700 from the end of the 2020 season
  • He’s scored 25+ DK pts eight times in 48 games
  • HOU ranks 30th in DK ppg allowed to RBs
  • Jonathan Taylor accounts for three out of the five instances of a 25+ DK pt performance vs. HOU since 2021

Kickoff Sunday, Sep 25th 1:00pm Eastern

Chiefs (
28) at

Colts (
23)

Over/Under 51.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Chiefs Run D
5th DVOA/21st Yards allowed per carry
Colts Run O
32nd DVOA/2nd Yards per carry
Chiefs Pass D
21st DVOA/27th Yards allowed per pass
Colts Pass O
30th DVOA/26th Yards per pass
Colts Run D
2nd DVOA/10th Yards allowed per carry
Chiefs Run O
17th DVOA/16th Yards per carry
Colts Pass D
27th DVOA/19th Yards allowed per pass
Chiefs Pass O
7th DVOA/4th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>
  • Two teams on very different trajectories. The Colts have played the Texans to a tie and got shut out by the Jaguars while the Chiefs have handled business against the Cardinals and Chargers.
  • Indianapolis has blitzed a healthy 28.2% to start the season after blitzing at the sixth lowest frequency in 2021, likely due to the relative ineffectiveness of their 4-3 front.
  • The Chiefs have historically (over the previous season) utilized a heavier emphasis on the run game and short-to-intermediate pass game against heavy Cover-2 and Cover-3 defenses, of which the Colts most definitely are.
  • Expect Indianapolis to lean on the run for as long as possible here.

How kansas city Will Try To Win ::

Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes check into Week 2 with the second highest pass rate over expectation in the league, which has come to be expected during their tenure together. The most interesting dynamic of this matchup is the expected blitz rates from Indianapolis as Mahomes has historically shredded the blitz. Colts defensive coordinator Gus Bradley utilized elevated blitz rates against two second-year quarterbacks over the first two weeks, which doesn’t necessarily mean those rates will carry through to a matchup with the perennial blitz-beater in Patrick Mahomes but is worth noting. Also worth noting is the absence of Darius (Shaq) Leonard in the middle of the field for Indianapolis, which affects the dynamism of a defense rooted in 4-3 base Cover-3. All told, it’s likely we see Andy Reid utilize increased emphasis on the run game against the heavy zone tendencies of the Colts, which has been the percentage solution over the previous year or so when facing heavier zone defenses. That is not to say we all of a sudden expect a run-heavy game plan from the Chiefs, simply that Reid and Mahomes have made more adjustments against Cover-2 and Cover-3 recently, relying more heavily on the run game and short passing game.

The backfield appears to be straightforward on the surface, with Clyde Edwards-Helaire the lead back and primary rusher, Jerick McKinnon the primary change of pace and third-down back, and Isiah Pacheco on hand for an emergency between-the-tackles role. That said, Edwards-Helaire has exactly zero red zone rush attempts through two games (McKinnon and Pacheco each have two such opportunities), clearly indicating a continued reliance on Mahomes and the pass game where it matters. The Chiefs also have averaged only 22.5 rush attempts per game, with that workload likely split between Edwards-Helaire and McKinnon on a standard week, with Pacheco joining the fray in positive game environments. As in, CEH’s 11 running back opportunities per game is highly unlikely to see him sustain his current top 12 status moving forward. 

What’s truly remarkable is the fact that the Chiefs have managed 71 total points scored this season on only 112 total offensive plays, which should come with little surprise considering who we’re talking about here, but is remarkable, nonetheless. Reid and the Chiefs hinted at a loose rotation at wide receiver after the departure of Tyreek Hill, and they’ve largely made good on that promise. Marquez Valdes-Scantling leads the way in snap rate at the position, followed by JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman. Justin Watson and Skyy Moore have mixed in sparingly to this point. From a macro perspective, the Chiefs have utilized heavy 12-personnel alignments through Travis Kelce and Noah Gray, with Jody Fortson mixing in as required. Travis Kelce’s route participation was a point of concern for season-long drafters this offseason, but his 85.1% mark remains elite, as does his 27.1% share of the team’s available air yards and 2.73 yards per route run. He is very much still the backbone of this pass offense. Behind Kelce, Smith-Schuster started off the season in a more downfield role but has since settled back into a “standard for him” moderate aDOT (7.8) and moderate yards per route run (1.48) role. The matchup lines up well for both Kelce and JuJu to be the primary pass game options. Marquez Valdes-Scantling has transitioned from a premier downfield threat into a more modest upside option in Kansas City, with a moderate 8.7 aDOT and gross 0.95 yards per route run value, which is interesting considering Mecole Hardman has now taken over more of a downfield role in this offense (16.3 aDOT and 1.48 yard per route run value). Keep an eye on this trend to see if it sticks moving forward.

How Indianapolis Will Try To Win ::

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Overview

  • Total of 49.5 is the first KC total under 50 
  • 3rd highest total on slate
  • KC is favored by 6.5
  • IND is coming off a 24-0 loss to (JAC) & are winless at 0-1-1
  • KC is 2-0 after being down to LAC 17-7 early in the 3rd qtr last week
  • LAC held KC to 14 yds in the 1st quarter

Patrick Mahomes

  • Mahomes (7.9k) comes back onto the main slate as the 3rd highest priced QB on DK 
  • He’s the 2nd highest on FD ($8.7k) 
  • His price went down $100 on both sites
  • 7:0 TD:INT ratio
  • Mahomes has 300+ yds in 3 of the last 5
  • He’s targeted 10 different players in both games this season
  • IND def ranks 29th in pass dvoa

KC RBs

  • Snap share: (CEH 41%) // (McKinnon 43%) // (Pacheco 17%)
  • Tgts: (CEH 3,4) // (McKinnon 4,2 )
  • CEH last week: rush 8:74 yds // rec 4:44 yds-4 tgts
  • On the season CEH has 15 carries:116 yds // 4th highest ypc (7.7)
  • CEH DK pts: 22.4 // 15.8 // avg of 19.1 is 3.0x his salary this week
  • IND allowed to RBs: (Robinson 23:64:1 TD) // (Burkhead 14:40, 5:30-8 tgts)
  • They held JAC to 2.6 yds/carry Wk2

KC WRs

  • Targets: (Schuster 11) // (MVS 11) // (Hardman 10) 
  • Schuster is the only KC WR with 50+ rec yds (79 in Wk1)
  • No KC player has 10 or more tgts yet
  • MVS had 7 last week which tied Kelce for team high
  • IND allowed to WR: (Kirk 6:78:2 TDs) // (Cooks 7:82)

Travis Kelce

  • Kelce was slowed down a bit by Derwin James last week (5:51-7 targets)
  • He had scored in seven straight games prior to last week
  • Kelce has 90+ yds four out of his last five // 100+ in two of the last five
  • IND hasn’t faced a top TE yet but did give up 2 TDs on 2 tgts Wk1 to OJ Howard & 7:46-8 tgts to Evan Engram Wk2
  • Kelce’s price has risen each week: $6.6k to $7.5k to $7.9k
  • $7.9k is his most expensive price since Wk2 last season

Matt Ryan

  • After coming off a decent outing in WK1 (32:50:352:1td:1int // 20.3 DK pts), Ryan was bad in Wk2 (16:30:195:0tds:3ints // 4.8 DK pts)
  • 4.8 DK pts was the lowest of all QBs who finished their game
  • His price went down $300 on Dk ($5.2k) after being $5.5k two straight weeks
  • On FD his price has went down $200 ($6.7k) since Wk1
  • KC D has faced Justin Herbert (27.5 Dk pts) & Kyler Murray (20.6)

Jonathan Taylor

  • Taylor had 175 scrimmage yds Wk1 // Only 63 Wk 2
  • Tgts Wk1: 7 // W2: 1
  • Taylor’s Snap Rate Wk1 (67%) // Wk2 (74%)
  • Nyheim Hines Snap Rate: Wk1 28% (22/26 snaps on pass plays) // Wk2 30% (14/15 snaps on pass plays)
  • Taylor’s tgts (1, 7) // Hines (5, 6)
  • Due to negative game script last week, Taylor only had nine rushing attempts last week
  • He didn’t have any games that few last season
  • His 31 attempts in a close game Wk1 was his 2nd highest since the start of last season
  • Opponents have rushed an average of 23 times vs KC
  • Taylor’s price dropped $900 on DK: $9.9k to $9k
  • It dropped $600 on FD: $10k to $9.4k

IND WRs

  • Snap % with Pittman out: Parris Campbell-86% // Michael Strachan-70% // Ashton Dulin-64% // Dezmon Patmon-48% 
  • Tgts: Dulin-7 // Patmon-6 // Strachan-3 // Campbell-2 
  • Pittman Wk1: 9:121:1TD-13 tgts
  • KC allowed to WRs: Williams (8:113:1) // Palmer (4:30:1) // Dortch (7:63) // Brown (4:43)

IND TEs

  • Snaps counts: Tyler Granson 27, 51 // Moe Allie-Cox 27, 50
  • Target counts: Granson (2, 7) // Cox (3, 2)

Kickoff Sunday, Sep 25th 1:00pm Eastern

Bills (
29.25) at

Dolphins (
25.25)

Over/Under 54.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Bills Run D
9th DVOA/13th Yards allowed per carry
Dolphins Run O
20th DVOA/30th Yards per carry
Bills Pass D
1st DVOA/1st Yards allowed per pass
Dolphins Pass O
2nd DVOA/17th Yards per pass
Dolphins Run D
4th DVOA/14th Yards allowed per carry
Bills Run O
31st DVOA/6th Yards per carry
Dolphins Pass D
31st DVOA/16th Yards allowed per pass
Bills Pass O
5th DVOA/9th Yards per pass

GAME OVERVIEW ::

By Hilow >>
  • Buffalo ranks first in pass rate over expectation while Miami ranks third in pass rate over expectation through two weeks.
  • McDaniel is going to have to get creative if he wants to move the ball effectively against Buffalo’s deep and athletic front six, against a secondary that utilizes “light” nickel packages and heightened zone concepts.
  • The state of Miami’s offensive line opens up paths to this game environment failing, and I don’t know how many analysts will be open about that possibility with this game.
  • Primary Bills pass-catchers set up well to wreak havoc on Miami’s “light”/nickel base defense.

How Buffalo Will Try To Win ::

We know Buffalo is going to pass the ball and we know Stefon Diggs and Josh Allen are the players the offense is built around, but we’re still waiting on the expected status of wide receiver Gabriel Davis to have a clear picture on the total picture for the Bills. Should Davis miss, we’re likeliest to see Jake Kumerow directly fill in on the perimeter (as he did on Monday night at 2% ownership with everyone gravitating to the two slot receivers – I digress, and am possibly still a bit salty), meaning Isaiah McKenzie and Jamison Crowder are likely to continue to sap each other’s snap rate and usage, opening up further room for Stefon Diggs to be the ultimate feature piece. Should Davis return from his ankle injury, we could see him split time with Kumerow on the perimeter or we could see him step back into an every-down role. Keep an eye on this situation as the week progresses and be ready for any leverage that might open up late in the week through the uncertainty.

“Lead back” Devin Singletary has played snap counts of 59% and 54% over the first two weeks of the season, seeing running back opportunity totals of 10 and nine. Fullback Reggie Gilliam has played the second most snaps at the position, ahead of both Zack Moss and rookie James Cook, but is typically utilized sparsely in the game plan. The reality of the matter is the player with the greatest rushing upside is their quarterback, Josh Allen, who has 11 carries for 66 yards and a score on the ground so far after posting a robust 122/763/6 line on the ground in 2021. The pure rushing matchup yields a well below average 3.99 net-adjusted line yards metric against a Miami team allowing just 3.06 running back yards per carry to start the year.

Stefon Diggs. He’s that dude. For real, though. Diggs currently holds top-20 marks against man coverage (per PFF) and the top overall marks against zone coverage (per PFF) of all pass-catchers on the season. His 270 receiving yards ranks second in the league (behind Tyreek Hill) and his four receiving scores lead the league. The emergence of Gabriel Davis has given the Bills a steady presence at the WR2 position instead of the rotation the team ran last year. His return would likely mean a slightly decreased reliance on Diggs, who was the target for 15 of Josh Allen’s 38 pass attempts on Monday. That said, the increased usage of “light” and nickel packages utilized by the Dolphins plays perfectly into the skillset of the All-World zone-beater, Stefon Diggs. As discussed above, expect Isaiah McKenzie and Jamison Crowder to continue sharing slot snaps regardless of the game day status of Gabe Davis. Finally, Dawson Knox has evolved into a near every-down, complete tight end over the course of the previous year. Expect him to approach a 90% snap rate in competitive games for the rest of the season. The matchup sets up well over the middle for Knox to find some real estate to work. 

How mIAMI Will Try To Win ::

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OVERVIEW

  • Highest game total of Week 3 (moved up three full points since opening)
  • BUF’s implied total of 29.75 is tied for first with MIN
  • MIA’s 24.25 is ranked eighth highest
  • Each team ranks among the six slowest teams in seconds per play (per TeamRankings.com)
  • Per numberFire, BUF ranks 15th in adjusted seconds per play and MIA ranks 32nd
  • BUF’s 36 ppg reigns supreme
  • MIA’s 31 ppg is tied for fourth
  • BUF’s point differential of +55 is more than double the second place team

Josh Allen

  • Second in PFF passing grade
  • The BUF offensive line ranks 24th per PFF
  • Allen ($8,200 Week 3 DK salary) has averaged 33.1 DK ppg so far
  • His game lines: Week 1 @ LAR 26/31:297:3:2 & 10:56:1 & Week 2 vs. TEN 26/38:317:4 & 1:10
  • Per 4for4’s Player Stat Explorer, Allen ranks first in Pass EPA/play, 4th in Completion Percentage Over Expected, third in adjusted YPA, & first in air yard completion %
  • The MIA secondary is ranked fourth by PFF
  • His $8,200 salary is tied for a career high
  • He’s scored 32 DK pts two out of the three times his salary has been this high
  • MIA ranks 31st in DK ppg allowed to QBs
  • Notable opposing QB scores since 2021: Josh Allen 29.46 // Tom Brady 40.74 // Lamar Jackson 48.62

BUF Passing Attack

  • Snap share: Dawson Knox 77.2% // Stefon Diggs 65.4% // Jake Kumerow 52.8% // Gabe Davis 45.7% // Isaiah McKenzie 44.9%
  • Target share: Diggs 32.4% // Knox 9.9% // McKenzie 8.5% // Jamison Crowder 8% // Gabe Davis 7%
  • Targets: Diggs 23 // Knox 7 // McKenzie 6 // Crowder 6 // Davis 5
  • Diggs ($7,700) ranks fifth in target share, tied for first in end zone target share, seventh in air yard share, third in WOPR, second in yards per route run, & fourth in targets per route run
  • His 38.5 DK ppg ranks first
  • He ranks first in PFF receiving grade
  • Last season he had a low 62.3% catch percentage
  • Through two games, he’s at 87% (per Lineups.com)
  • He’s scored 4x his Week 3 DK salary six times in three seasons as a Bill
  • Davis’s Week 1 line @ LAR: 4/5:88:1
  • He’s scored 20+ DK pts three times since December 2021
  • McKenzie ($4,700) has scored 30+ DK pts twice but has otherwise not hit 12
  • MIA ranks 22nd in DK ppg allowed to WRs
  • Notable opposing WR scores since 2021: Marvin Jones 26 // Mike Evans 32.3 // Elijah Moore 32.6 // Antonio Brown 34.4
  • Knox’s ($4,100) game logs: 1/2:5 // 4/5:41
  • He’s scored 4x his Week 3 DK salary five times in his past 21 games (including three 20+ efforts)
  • MIA ranks 31st in DK ppg allowed to TEs
  • Notable opposing TE scores since 2021: Mark Andrews 18.3 // Mo Alie-Cox 19.2 // Kyle Pitts 26.3 // Andrews 28.7

BUF Rushing Attack

  • Snap share: Devin Singletary 56.7% // Zack Moss 27.6% // James Cook 16.5%
  • Target share: Moss 9.9% // Singletary 8.5% // Cook 1.4%
  • Targets: Moss 7 // Singletary 6 // Cook 1
  • Attempts: Singletary 14 // Cook 12 // Moss 9
  • Redzone touches: Cook 2 // Josh Allen 2 // Singletary 2 // Moss 1
  • Singletary ($5,600) ranks seventh in rush yards over expectation per carry
  • PFF ranks him 33rd in rushing grade
  • His game logs: 8:48 & 2/2:14 // 6:19 & 2/4:2
  • He’s scored 4x his Week 3 DK salary three times at the end of last season
  • Moss ($4,800) has scored 4x his Week 3 DK salary twice
  • The majority of Cook’s snaps came in Week 2 with the second unit
  • MIA ranks first in DK ppg allowed to RBs
  • Just five RBs have scored 20+ DK pts vs. MIA since 2021 (none have hit 30)

Tua Tagovailoa

  • Tied for seventh in PFF passing grade behind the 25th ranked offensive line
  • Tua ($6,100) ranks fifth in Pass EPA/play, seventh in CPOE, fourth in adj. YPA, sixth in air yards completion %, & second in on-target % (per 4for4)
  • His game logs: Week 1 vs. NE 23/33:270:1 // Week 2 @ BAL 36/50:469:6:2
  • His Week 3 salary is a career high
  • He’s scored 4x his salary four times in 23 career games: 25.36 // 28.54 // 31.04 // 43.86
  • BUF’s secondary is ranked second by PFF
  • BUF ranks first in DK ppg allowed to QBs
  • Notable opposing QB scores since 2021: Cam Newton 24.34 // Tom Brady 33.12 // Patrick Mahomes 43.02

MIA Passing Attack

  • Snap share: Jaylen Waddle 74% // Tyreek Hill 71.8% // Durham Smythe 55.7% // Mike Gesicki 52.7%
  • Target share: Hill 30.1% // Waddle 28.9% // Gesicki 6%
  • Targets: Hill 25 // Waddle 24 // Gesicki 5
  • Hill ($7,600) ranks eighth in target share, 11th in air yard share, eighth in WOPR, third in YPRR, & sixth in TPRR (per 4for4)
  • His game logs: 8/12:94 // 11/13:190:2
  • He ranks fifth in PFF receiving grade
  • He’s scored 4x his Week 3 DK salary 13 times since the 2018 season (including seven 40+ scores)
  • Waddle ($6,800) ranks 13th in target share, 19th in air yard share, 14th in WOPR, sixth in YPRR, & 12th in TPRR
  • His game logs: 4/5:69:1 // 11/19:171:2
  • He ranks 13th in PFF grade
  • His Week 3 salary is a career high
  • He’s scored 4x that salary three times in 18 games
  • BUF ranks 11th in DK ppg allowed to WRs
  • Notable opposing WR scores since 2021: Kendrick Bourne 28.1 // Tyreek Hill 34.8 // Cooper Kupp 34.8
  • Gesicki ($4,300) ranks tied for 12th in end zone share
  • His game logs: 1/1:1 // 4/4:41:1
  • He’s scored 15+ DK pts four times in his last 17 games (including two 20+ efforts)
  • BUF ranks ninth in DK ppg allowed to TEs
  • Notable opposing TE scores since 2021: Travis Kelce 17.7 // Kelce 23.6

MIA Rushing Attack

  • Snap share: Chase Edmonds 56.5% // Raheem Mostert 48.9%
  • Target share: Edmonds 8.4% // Mostert 4.8%
  • Targets: Edmonds 7 // Mostert 4
  • Attempts: Edmonds 17 // Mostert 16
  • Redzone touches: Tua Tagovailoa 2 // Edmonds 1 // Mostert 1
  • Edmonds ($5,100) game logs: 12:25 & 4/4:40 // 5:33 & 1/3:8
  • Edmonds is 40th in PFF rushing grade
  • He’s scored 20+ DK pts three times out of 31 games in the last three seasons
  • Mostert ($4,500) ranks sixth in broken tackle %
  • He’s 26th in PFF rushing grade
  • His game logs: 5:16 & 1/1:16 // 11:51 & 3/3:28
  • He’s scored 20+ DK pts once since the 2020 season (out of 11 games)
  • BUF ranks fifth in DK ppg allowed to RBs
  • Notable opposing RB scores since 2021: Leonard Fournette 26.2 // Damien Harris 31.3 // Derrick Henry 38.6 // Jonathan Taylor 56.4

Kickoff Sunday, Sep 25th 1:00pm Eastern

Lions (
22.75) at

Vikings (
29.25)

Over/Under 52.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Lions Run D
32nd DVOA/28th Yards allowed per carry
Vikings Run O
10th DVOA/17th Yards per carry
Lions Pass D
24th DVOA/24th Yards allowed per pass
Vikings Pass O
15th DVOA/11th Yards per pass
Vikings Run D
27th DVOA/26th Yards allowed per carry
Lions Run O
4th DVOA/19th Yards per carry
Vikings Pass D
20th DVOA/28th Yards allowed per pass
Lions Pass O
12th DVOA/18th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>
  • Minnesota should look more like the team we saw in Week 1 than the team we saw get trampled by the Eagles.
  • The Lions play aggressively on both sides of the ball, which helps set the tone for high-scoring games.
  • Both teams are top-10 in the league in pace of play.
  • Both defenses have shown the ability to make plays but also shown that they are very susceptible to miscues through two weeks.

How detroit Will Try To Win ::

Detroit appears to have turned the corner to become a different team than the bottom feeder we have seen in recent years. Dan Campbell’s energy shows up on the team in all areas as they play extremely hard and have had two impressive showings to start the season. Their season-opening loss to the Eagles looks much better now after seeing how the Eagles demolished the Vikings on Monday Night Football in Week 2. Now the Lions head on the road for their first divisional matchup of the season against the Vikings, who are playing on a short week.

Perhaps the most impressive and noteworthy thing about Detroit’s start has been the pace with which they are playing. The Lions are currently leading the league in situation-neutral pace of play and 5th in overall pace of play (seconds per snap). They have done this while playing with a very balanced, league-average pass rate and are doing a tremendous job of mixing things up and using their personnel well, including multiple running backs. Amon-Ra St. Brown has obviously been terrific as he continues his ascension to top-tier NFL WR status, but Jared Goff’s play has been outstanding through two weeks, with 471 passing yards, a 6:1 TD-to-INT ratio, and a 100.15 QB Rating.

Through two weeks, the Vikings defense once again looks like it is not one to fear, and the Lions do not have the feeling of a team that plays with fear in any regard. The Lions defense is not elite, so they know they need to score points. We should expect more of the same from Detroit this week, with a balanced attack that plays to their personnel’s strengths :: short and intermediate throws to the middle of the field and flats, Amon-Ra St. Brown and D’Andre Swift in space, Jamaal Williams between the tackles, and occasional shots downfield to DJ Chark. The Lions will play fast and attempt to strike first, isolating their skill players in space against a Vikings team that struggled to contain the Eagles weapons on Monday night.

How minnesota Will Try To Win ::

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OVERVIEW

  • Second highest game total of Week 3 (moved up three full points since opening)
  • MIN’s implied total of 29.75 is tied for first with BUF
  • DET’s 23.75 is tied for ninth
  • The majority of the line movement has come on the DET side (up by 2.25 pts)
  • Since their 2021 bye (Week 9), DET has a 9-2 record against the spread (per Pro Football Reference)
  • DET is tied for fifth in fewest seconds per play (per TeamRankings.com)
  • MIN is tied for 11th
  • DET is tied with KC in ppg at 35.5
  • Meanwhile, MIN is averaging just 15 ppg
  • DET ranks sixth in yards per play with 6.7, behind four of the six remaining unbeaten teams and BAL
  • MIN and DET are among the least penalized offenses
  • DET’s defense has allowed the second most ppg at 32.5

Jared Goff

  • 29th in PFF passing grade behind the sixth ranked offensive line
  • Goff ($5,800 Week 3 DK salary) ranks eighth in adj. YPA, seventh in ADoT, & seventh in on-target % (per 4for4’s Player Stat Explorer)
  • The MIN secondary is ranked 21st by PFF
  • His game logs: Week 1 vs. PHI 21/37:215:2:1 // Week 2 vs. WAS 20/34:256:4
  • His Week 3 DK salary is the highest it’s been as a Lion
  • He’s scored 4x that salary twice for DET: 26.04 in Week 2 // 32.92 in Week 1 last year
  • MIN ranks 23rd in DK ppg allowed to QBs
  • Notable opposing QB scores since 2021: Ben Roethlisberger 28.82 // Lamar Jackson 35.64 // Aaron Rodgers 36.5 // Jalen Hurts 37.02 // Kyler Murray 38.1

DET Passing Attack

  • Snap share: T.J. Hockenson 90% // Amon-Ra St. Brown 86.9% // Josh Reynolds 76.2% // DJ Chark 73.8%
  • Target share: Amon-Ra 33.8% // Hockenson 19.7% // Chark 16.9% // Reynolds 8.5%
  • Targets: Amon-Ra 24 // Hockenson 14 // Chark 12 // Reynolds 3
  • Amon-Ra ($7,200) ranks fourth in target share, 15th in WOPR, 17th in yards per route run, & 7th in targets per route run (per 4for4)
  • His game logs: 8/12:64:1 // 9/12:116:2 & 2:68
  • He ranks 30th in PFF receiving grade
  • In Weeks 16 & 17 last year, Amon-Ra also had two carries (for 19 & 23 yards respectively)
  • His 31.4 DK ppg ranks fourth
  • Amon-Ra’s Week 3 salary is a career high and the first time he’s cracked $7k
  • His DK game logs in the past eight games, in chronological order: 24.8 // 15.3 // 23.5 // 26 // 38.4 // 29.1 // 20.4 // 42.4
  • Chark ($5,100) ranks fifth in ADoT
  • His game logs: 4/8:52:1 // 0/4:0
  • He hasn’t scored 20+ DK pts since 2020 (29.5 & 30.6)
  • MIN ranks 18th in DK ppg allowed to WRs
  • Seven opposing WRs have scored 25+ DK pts since 2021
  • Hockenson ($4,200) ranks eighth in target share, eighth in WOPR, & 12th in TPRR
  • His game logs: 4/7:38 // 3/7:26
  • He’s scored 4x his Week 3 DK salary three times in his past 13 games
  • MIN ranks 23rd in DK ppg allowed to TEs
  • Notable opposing TE scores since 2021: Dallas Goedert 13.2 // Hockenson 14.9 // Maxx Williams 16.4

DET Rushing Attack

  • Snap share: D’Andre Swift 59.2% // Jamaal Williams 33.8%
  • Target share: Swift 11.3% // Williams 4.2%
  • Targets: Swift 8 // Williams 3
  • Attempts: Williams 23 // Swift 20
  • Williams leads in redzone touches 10 to 2, including all four of the inside the five carries
  • Swift ($7,200) was limited in snaps in Week 2
  • He leads all RBs in rush yards over expected per carry, 14th in broken tackle %, fourth in yards after contact per carry, & is 24th in high value touch % (per 4for4)
  • PFF ranks Swift as the third best RB in rushing grade
  • His game logs: 15:144:1 & 3/3:31 // 5:56 & 2/5:31:1
  • Swift’s 23.1 DK ppg ranks third
  • His Week 3 DK salary is $100 shy of tying his career high
  • He’s scored 25+ DK pts five times in 28 games
  • Williams ($5,400) ranks 23rd in % of team carries, eighth in % of red zone carries, & fifth in high value touch %
  • His game logs: 11:28:2 & 1/2:2 // 12:53 & 1/1:7
  • He’s scored 20+ DK pts once as a Lion (Week 1 last season)
  • MIN ranks 18th in DK ppg allowed to RBs
  • Notable opposing RB scores since 2021: Najee Harris 25.4 // Joe Mixon 28 // Elijah Mitchell 30.8

Kirk Cousins

  • 12th in PFF passing grade behind the 19th ranked offensive line
  • Cousins ($6,700) ranks 18th in Pass EPA/play but 30th in EPA/play when blitzed, 27th in adj. YPA, seventh in air yard completion %, 33rd in ADoT, & ninth in pocket time (per 4for4)
  • The DET secondary is ranked 25th by PFF
  • Per PFF, DET has utilized man coverage at the second highest rate this season
  • His Week 3 salary is the second highest it’s been as a Viking
  • He’s scored 4x that salary 13 times in 70 games
  • DET ranks 29th in DK ppg allowed to QBs
  • Notable opposing QB scores since 2021: Aaron Rodgers 26.8 // Russell Wilson 27.84 // Matthew Stafford 30.16 // Carson Wentz 31.78

MIN Passing Attack

  • Snap share: Adam Thielen 95.9% // Justin Jefferson 95.1% // K.J. Osborn 72.4% // Johnny Mundt 55.3% // Irv Smith 43.1%
  • Target share: Jefferson 29.5% // Thielen 14.1% // Smith 12.8% // Mundt 7.7% // Osborn 7.7%
  • Targets: Jefferson 23 // Thielen 11 // Smith 10 // Mundt 6 // Osborn 6
  • Jefferson ($9,300) ranks 10th in target share, fourth in end zone target share, first in air yard share, fourth in WOPR, 12th in YPRR, & 19th in TPRR (per 4for4)
  • His game logs: Week 1 vs. GB 9/11:184:2 // Week 2 @ PHI 6/12:48
  • He ranks eighth in PFF grade
  • His 26.6 DK ppg ranks seventh
  • Week 3 DK salary is a career high, and he’s scored 4x that salary four times in three seasons
  • Thielen ($5,900) game logs: 3/4:36 // 4/7:52
  • He’s scored 4x his Week 3 DK salary seven times since Jefferson joined the team
  • DET ranks 25th in DK ppg allowed to WRs
  • Notable opposing WR scores: A.J. Brown 28.5 // DK Metcalf 30.9 // Deebo Samuel 35.9 // Justin Jefferson 38.6 // Cooper Kupp 40.6
  • Smith ($3,100) ranks ninth in air yard share, 12th in ADoT, & 10th in TPRR
  • His game logs: 0/2:0 // 5/8:36:1
  • His 14.6 DK pts in Week 2 were his highest since scoring 15+ three times in 2020
  • DET ranks 21st in DK ppg allowed to TEs
  • Notable opposing TE scores since 2021: Albert Okwuegbunam 15.1 // Josiah Deguara 15.6 // Mark Andrews 18.9 // Kyle Pitts 19.2

Dalvin Cook

  • Among all RBs, Cook ($7,900) ranks fifth in % team carries, 18th in rush yards over expected per carry, 18th in broken tackle %, & 22nd in high value touch % (per 4for4)
  • He’s PFF’s 17th ranked RB in rushing grade
  • His game logs: 20:90 & 3/5:18 // 6:17 & 4/6:19
  • Since 2019, he’s scored 30+ DK pts seven times in 48 games
  • DET ranks 31st in DK ppg allowed to RBs
  • Notable opposing RB scores since 2021: Alexander Mattison 30.3 // Rashaad Penny 35.5 // Aaron Jones 41.5

Kickoff Sunday, Sep 25th 1:00pm Eastern

Ravens (
23.5) at

Patriots (
21)

Over/Under 44.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Ravens Run D
22nd DVOA/1st Yards allowed per carry
Patriots Run O
1st DVOA/8th Yards per carry
Ravens Pass D
14th DVOA/32nd Yards allowed per pass
Patriots Pass O
28th DVOA/14th Yards per pass
Patriots Run D
31st DVOA/22nd Yards allowed per carry
Ravens Run O
15th DVOA/3rd Yards per carry
Patriots Pass D
10th DVOA/2nd Yards allowed per pass
Ravens Pass O
1st DVOA/13th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By papy324>>
  • The best DFS play from this game is probably a defense.
  • The Patriots WRs are all cheap if you think their game plan will be to pass.
  • The Ravens are highly influenced by game script.
  • The Ravens passing game has upside, with a lower than normal chance to reach their ceiling.

How Baltimore Will Try To Win ::

The Ravens must be the maddest team in the NFL, after blowing what seemed like an insurmountable advantage in the fourth quarter last week. We might not see another three-touchdown lead evaporate that late in the game this year. Fortunately for Baltimore, they play in the AFC North, a division no one wants to win, so they didn’t lose any ground despite the disappointing loss. Even so, history shows there is a big difference in playoff made percentage between 2-1 and 1-2 teams, making this a meaningful early season game for a team with Super Bowl aspirations.

Jim Harbaugh has long been one of the better coaches in the NFL and is willing to scheme his offense around the talent on his roster. It’s easy to forget Lamar Jackson was a raw QB prospect coming out of Louisville with a play style that typically doesn’t succeed in the NFL. Harbaugh deserves a lot of credit for adapting to his new QB and designing an offense that fit his strengths. The Ravens offense attacks in a unique way, which allows them to play with the mindset of “you have to adjust to us” rather than trying to adapt their game plan based on the defense.

The Patriots defense has been solid against the pass (11th in DVOA) and middling against the run (17th in DVOA) to start the year while holding the Dolphins and Steelers under 21 points. There is no reason to think the Patriots defense will tilt the Ravens away from their preferred approach of using Lamar Jackson as a hybrid QB/RB who stresses the defense with his legs, creating open throws down the field that don’t require him to be as accurate as other QBs. There may be some indication that the Ravens are looking to be more judicious with Jackson’s rushing attempts, as he saw only 6/9 carries in the first two games. However, the six carries came in a game that was never in doubt, and the nine carries were enough to post 119 yards. The Patriots have recently favored man coverage, and this could be Lamar’s first double-digit carry game of the year if Belichick lets his defense turn their back.

The Ravens want to play at an above-average pace (13th situational neutral) but are willing to slow down when winning (20th in the second half). They demonstrated this tendency in both games this year when they took large leads into halftime. The Ravens will stay aggressive, as long as the game is competitive, but are happy to take the air out of the ball with a lead. The Ravens have scored 62 points this year, but only three points in the 4th quarter, and 21 points in the second half.  Expect the Ravens to try and establish another early lead, before becoming more conservative and hoping to grind down the clock for an easy win.    

How new england Will Try To Win ::

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By Alex88 >>

OVERVIEW

  • Middling game total of 43.5
  • NE’s implied total of 20.25 is tied for the eighth lowest of Week 3
  • Per numberFire, BAL ranks 29th in adjusted seconds per play
  • NE ranks 20th
  • BAL is tied for fourth in ppg with 31
  • NE is tied for 30th with just 12 ppg
  • BAL leads the league with seven yards per play
  • Their offense has averaged just three penalties per game (second fewest)

Lamar Jackson

  • Sixth in PFF passing grade behind the 18th ranked offensive line
  • Lamar ($8,000 Week 3 DK salary) ranks third in Pass EPA/play, first in adj. YPA, & first in ADoT (per 4for4’s Player Stat Explorer)
  • The NE secondary is ranked 18th by PFF
  • His game logs: Week 1 @ NYJ 17/30:213:3:1 & 6:17 // Week 2 vs. MIA 21/29:318:3 & 9:119:1
  • His 34.9 DK ppg ranks first
  • Lamar has scored 4x his Week 3 DK salary 14 times in 55 career games
  • NE ranks seventh in DK ppg allowed to QBs
  • Notable opposing QB scores since 2021: Davis Mills 27.68 // Dak Prescott 31.8 // Josh Allen 33.96 // Allen 41.92

BAL Passing Attack

  • Snap share: Mark Andrews 83.5% // Rashod Bateman 63.5% // Devin Duvernay 53%
  • Target share: Andrews 30.5% // Bateman 20.3% // Isaiah Likely 15.3% // Duvernay 10.2%
  • Targets: Andrews 18 // Bateman 12 // Likely 9 // Duvernay 6
  • Bateman ($5,700) ranks 10th in ADoT, 4th in yards per route run, & 23rd in targets per route run (per 4for4)
  • His game logs: 2/5:59:1 // 4/7:108:1
  • He’s scored 20+ DK pts twice in 13 games
  • Duvernay ($4,000) game logs: 4/4:54:2 // 2/2:42 & kick return TD
  • He ranks 26th in PFF receiving grade
  • NE ranks 12th in DK ppg allowed to WRs
  • Notable opposing WR scores since 2021: Stefon Diggs 21.5 // Isaiah McKenzie 32.4 // CeeDee Lamb 39.1
  • Andrews ($6,900) ranks first in target share, seventh in end zone target share, first in air yard share, second in ADoT, first in WOPR, first in YPRR, & second in TPRR
  • His game logs: 5/7:52 // 9/11:104:1
  • His 19.4 DK ppg ranks second
  • He’s scored 4x his Week 3 salary three times since the 2019 season, and hit 20+ DK pts eight times (out of 34 games)
  • NE ranks 11th in DK ppg allowed to TEs
  • Notable opposing TE scores since 2021: Dawson Knox 25.9

BAL Rushing Attack

  • Snap share: Kenyan Drake 41.7% // Justice Hill 27.8% // Mike Davis 21.7%
  • Attempts: Drake 17 // Davis 7 // Hill 5
  • None of the RBs have seen enough work to amount to six DK pts
  • NE ranks eighth in DK ppg allowed to RBs
  • Seven opposing RBs have scored 20+ DK pts vs. NE since 2021 (none have hit 30)

Mac Jones

  • 24th in PFF passing grade behind the third ranked offensive line
  • Mac ($5,100) ranks 20th in Pass EPA/play, fifth in ADoT, & 32nd in on-target % (per 4for4)
  • The BAL secondary is ranked 13th by PFF
  • Mac’s game logs: Week 1 @ MIA 31/30:213:1:1 // Week 2 @ PIT 21.35:252:1:1
  • He’s scored 4x his Week 3 DK salary just three times out of 20 career games
  • His ceiling DK score has been 25.18 pts
  • BAL ranks 32nd in DK ppg allowed to QBs
  • Notable opposing QB scores since 2021: Carson Wentz 26.58 // Derek Carr 28 // Patrick Mahomes 28.02 // Joe Burrow 30.64 // Burrow 41.1 // Tua Tagovailoa 43.86

NE Passing Attack

  • Snap share: DeVante Parker 87.2% // Jakobi Meyers 84.8% // Hunter Henry 62.4% // Jonnu Smith 62.4% // Nelson Agholor 53.6%
  • Target share: Meyers 29.2% // Agholor 16.9% // Smith 10.8% // Parker 6.2% // Henry 6.2%
  • Targets: Meyers 19 // Agholor 11 // Smith 7 // Parker 4 // Henry 4
  • Meyers ($5,000) ranks 12th in target share, 26th in air yard share, 16th in WOPR, 22nd in YPRR, & 14th in TPRR
  • His game logs: 4/6:55 // 9/13:95
  • Ranks 34th in PFF receiving grade
  • Meyers has scored 20+ DK pts once in 19 games
  • Agholor ($4,100) game logs: 3/5:28 // 6/6:110:1
  • He’s scored 15+ DK pts three times, including last week’s 26 pt effort
  • He ranks 32nd in PFF grade
  • BAL ranks 32nd in DK ppg allowed to WRs
  • There have been 11 instances of an opposing WR scoring 20+ DK pts since 2021
  • Smith ($2,900) ranks eighth in TPRR
  • His game logs: 3/4:33 // 0/3:0
  • He’s yet to hit 12 DK pts
  • Henry’s ($3,200) game logs: 2/3:20 // 0/1:0
  • This is how lowest DK salary with Mac Jones at QB
  • He hit 15+ DK pts three times last season, including a 25.7 ceiling
  • BAL ranks 25th in DK ppg allowed to TEs
  • Notable opposing TE scores since 2021: Noah Fant 16.6 // C.J. Uzomah 24.1 // Travis Kelce 26.9 // Darren Waller 29.5

NE Rushing Attack

  • Snap share: Rhamondre Stevenson 44.8% // Damien Harris 39.2%
  • Target share: Harris 7.7% // Stevenson 6.2%
  • Targets: Harris 5 // Stevenson 4
  • Attempts: Harris 24 // Stevenson 17
  • Harris ($5,600) has seen all five of the RB touches in the redzone
  • He ranks 21st in % team carries, 19th in rush yards over expected per carry, 16th in broken tackle %, 18th in yards after contact per carry, & eighth in % team redzone carries (Mac Jones has seen the rest of the carries in the redzone)
  • Harris ranks 28th in PFF rushing grade
  • His game logs: 9:48 & 2/3:10 // 15:71:1 & 2/2:16
  • His Week 3 DK salary is $1,000 less than his highest cost last season
  • He had four games of 25+ DK pts last year
  • Stevenson ($4,800) ranks 19th in yards after contact per carry (per 4for4)
  • He ranks 11th in PFF rushing grade
  • His game logs: 8:25 & 2/2:2 // 9:47 & 1/2:4
  • His Week 3 DK salary is $1,000 less than his highest cost last year
  • He had two games of 25+ DK pts in 2021
  • BAL ranks 16th in DK ppg allowed to RBs
  • Notable opposing RB scores since 2021: D’Andre Swift 23.7 // Joe Mixon 31.5 // Jonathan Taylor 34.9

Kickoff Sunday, Sep 25th 1:00pm Eastern

Bengals (
26.25) at

Jets (
19.75)

Over/Under 46.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Bengals Run D
7th DVOA/5th Yards allowed per carry
Jets Run O
21st DVOA/27th Yards per carry
Bengals Pass D
8th DVOA/26th Yards allowed per pass
Jets Pass O
23rd DVOA/20th Yards per pass
Jets Run D
14th DVOA/29th Yards allowed per carry
Bengals Run O
28th DVOA/23rd Yards per carry
Jets Pass D
29th DVOA/30th Yards allowed per pass
Bengals Pass O
20th DVOA/7th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>
  • Cincinnati needs to figure things out quickly or they could dig themselves a hole they can’t get out of.
  • The Jets have been aggressive and fun through two weeks, and are quickly getting their young, explosive skill players more involved.
  • Much of this game’s potential will be decided by the ability of the Bengals offensive line to provide pass protection and how Zac Taylor approaches playcalling.
  • Joe Flacco and Joe Burrow are currently 1st and 2nd in the NFL in pass attempts.

How Cincinnati Will Try To Win ::

The Bengals have had a tough start this season, losing both of their games on walk-off field goals to teams that they should have had advantages over. As they fight through this “Super Bowl hangover,” they will have to look in the mirror at things they can do to get back to the magic that took them on their run through the AFC to end last season. One of their biggest issues has clearly been their offensive line play. Through two games Joe Burrow has taken a whopping 13 sacks. The Bengals put a lot of resources into improving their offensive line this offseason as that was their biggest issue against the Rams in their Super Bowl loss. However, things haven’t come together quite yet. 

Part of the issue has been their opponents to start the year each featured one of the premier pass rushers in the game – TJ Watt of the Steelers and Micah Parsons of the Cowboys. Those players individually do so many things to disrupt offenses and create chaos, while simultaneously drawing attention away from their teammates to help them create pressure as well. Luckily for the Bengals, this week the Jets have no such player of that caliber. Through two games, the Jets have only three sacks while allowing Lamar Jackson to throw for three touchdowns and giving up 8.5 yards per pass attempt to Jacoby Brissett.

As for method of approach, the Bengals still provide us with some uncertainty. They have run at a very high rate on first downs to start the year, and their running game has not been very efficient, averaging only three yards per carry on 49 rush attempts (not counting Joe Burrow scrambles). It is hard to tell, however, if this play calling is how they truly want to play or if it was a function of trying to deal with the elite pass rushes they have faced. My lean is that it is more of the latter, with the Bengals having an opportunity this week to open things up against a weaker pass defense, especially after seeing the results of two poor offensive showings with their run-heavy approach. Tee Higgins returned and played a good game in Week 2, so a full week of planning and practicing for the offense, and a desire to get back to who they are should give them a chance to be the offense that everyone expected to see after tearing things up to end 2021.

How new york Will Try To Win ::

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By Alex88 >>

OVERVIEW

  • Middling game total of 45
  • CIN’s implied total of 25 is the seventh highest of Week 3
  • NYJ’s total of 20 is tied for sixth lowest
  • Sixth widest spread of the week
  • NYJ is the fastest offense through two weeks, averaging 24.8 seconds per play (per TeamRankings.com)
  • Per numberFire, NYJ ranks third in adjusted seconds per play
  • CIN ranks 26th
  • The defending AFC Champions are averaging just 4.3 yards per play on offense (31st)

Joe Burrow

  • 25th in PFF passing grade behind the 22nd ranked offensive line
  • Burrow ($6,600 Week 3 DK salary) ranks 33rd in adj. YPA, 27th in air yard completion %, 29th in ADoT, 29th in pocket time, & 23rd in on-target % (per 4for4’s Player Stat Explorer)
  • The NYJ secondary is ranked 24th by PFF
  • Burrow’s game logs: Week 1 vs. PIT 33/53:338:2:4 & 6:47 // Week 2 @ DAL 24/36:199:1 & 4:26
  • His rushing totals are the highest he’s had since his major injury in his rookie year
  • Prior to that injury, he had one game with 46 rushing yards and another with 34
  • He’s scored 4x his Week 3 DK salary five times in 31 games
  • NYJ ranks 18th in DK ppg allowed to QBs
  • Notable opposing QB scores since 2021: Mac Jones 25.18 // Taysom Hill 26.3 // Tom Brady 30.4

CIN Passing Attack

  • Snap share: Ja’Marr Chase 98.2% // Tyler Boyd 80.6% // Hayden Hurst 77.6% // Tee Higgins 51.8%
  • Target share: Chase 28.1% // Hurst 16.9% // Higgins 13.5% // Boyd 10.1%
  • Targets: Chase 25 // Hurst 15 // Higgins 12 // Boyd 9
  • Chase ($8,100) ranks 15th in target share, 16th in end zone target share, & 21st in WOPR (per 4for4)
  • His game logs: 10/16:129:1 // 5/9:54
  • He ranks 23rd in PFF receiving grade
  • His 21.4 DK ppg ranks 10th
  • Chase’s Week 3 DK salary is the second highest in his career
  • He’s scored 30+ DK pts four times in 22 games
  • Higgins ($6,100) game logs: 2/2:27 (left early due to injury) // 6/10:71:1
  • Since Chase joined the team, Higgins has scored 4x his Week 3 salary three times in 19 games
  • Boyd’s ($5,200) game logs: 4/7:33:1 // 2/2:17
  • He’s scored 20+ DK pts twice in the past 21 games
  • NYJ ranks 16th in DK ppg allowed to WRs
  • Notable opposing WR scores since 2021: Jaylen Waddle 20.6 // Devin Duvernay 21.4 // Stefon Diggs 23.1 // Diggs 33.2
  • Hurst ($3,900) ranks 12th in target share
  • His game logs: 5/8:46 // 5/7:24
  • Back in 2020, Hurst had three 15+ DK pt efforts
  • NYJ ranks 19th in DK ppg allowed to TEs
  • Notable opposing TE scores since 2021: Rob Gronkowski 21.5 // Kyle Pitts 29.9 // Dallas Goedert 31.5

Joe Mixon

  • Mixon ($7,600) ranks second in % team carries, 10th in % team redzone carries, & 18th in high value touch % (per 4for4)
  • He ranks 47th in PFF rushing grade
  • His game logs: 27:82 & 7/9:63 // 19:57 & 3/4:26
  • His 16.4 DK ppg ranks 10th
  • He’s scored 30+ DK pts twice in his last 21 games
  • NYJ ranks 23rd in DK ppg allowed to RBs
  • Notable opposing RB scores since 2021: Mixon 25.1 // Devin Singletary 25.2 // Alvin Kamara 27.5 // CMC 27.7 // Damien Harris 28.3 // Derrick Henry 28.7 // Nick Chubb 32.3 // Jonathan Taylor 37

Joe Flacco

  • Fourth in PFF passing grade behind the 21st ranked offensive line
  • Flacco ($5,300) ranks 13rd in Pass EPA/play (per 4for4)
  • The CIN secondary is ranked ninth by PFF
  • Flacco’s game logs: Week 1 vs. BAL 37/59:307:1:1 // Week 2 @ CLE 26/44:307:4
  • Week 2’s 30.88 DK pts were the sixth highest of the week, and his third highest in 82 career games
  • CIN ranks sixth in DK ppg allowed to QBs
  • Notable opposing QB scores since 2021: Kirk Cousins 25.04 // Justin Herbert 29.28 // Mike White 31.1

NYJ Passing Attack

  • Snap share: Tyler Conklin 95.5% // Elijah Moore 88.3% // Corey Davis 72.7% // Garrett Wilson 54.5%
  • Target share: Wilson 21.2% // Conklin 15.4$ // Davis 13.5% // Moore 11.5%
  • Targets: Wilson 22 // Conklin 16 // Davis 13 // Moore 12
  • Wilson ($5,400) ranks fifth in end zone target share & 13th in targets per route run (per 4for4)
  • His game logs: 4/8:52 // 8/14:102:2
  • He ranks 16th in PFF receiving grade
  • His 21.1 DK ppg ranks 11th
  • Davis ($4,900) ranks 17th in air yard share
  • His game logs: 6/9:77 // 2/4:83:1
  • He’s scored 20+ DK pts twice in his past 11 games
  • Moore’s ($5,000) game logs: 5/7:49 // 3/5:41
  • He’s scored 20+ DK pts three times out of 12 games
  • CIN ranks fifth in DK ppg allowed to WRs
  • Notable opposing WR scores since 2021: A.J. Brown 28.2 // Adam Thielen 30.2 // Davante Adams 40.6
  • Conklin’s ($3,800) game logs: 4/7:14:1 // 6/9:40
  • His 10.7 DK ppg ranks ninth
  • As a Viking last year, Conklin scored 15+ DK pts twice
  • CIN ranks 17th in DK ppg allowed to TEs
  • Notable opposing TE scores since 2021: Darren Waller 21.6 // Travis Kelce 25.5 // Mark Andrews 29.5 // George Kittle 37.1

NYJ Rushing Attack

  • Snap share: Michael Carter 60.4% // Breece Hall 37%
  • Target share: Carter 13.5% // Hall 9.6%
  • Targets: Carter 14 // Hall 11
  • Attempts: Carter 17 // Hall 13
  • Redzone touches: Hall 4 // Carter 2
  • Carter ($5,200) ranks second in broken tackle % & first in high value touch % (per 4for4)
  • He ranks 12th in PFF rushing grade
  • His game logs: 10:60 & 7/9:40 // 7:23 & 5/5:27
  • He has a ceiling DK score of 32.2 vs. CIN in Week 8 last year but has otherwise failed to hit 20 pts
  • Hall ($5,300) ranks 12th in rush yards over expected per carry & fourth in high value touch %
  • He ranks 29th in PFF rushing grade
  • His game logs: 6:23 & 6/10:38 // 7:50 & 1/1:10:1
  • CIN ranks 10th in DK ppg allowed to RBs
  • Notable opposing RB scores since 2021: Darrel Williams 25.7 // Najee Harris 31.2 // Carter 32.2 // Nick Chubb 33.3

Kickoff Sunday, Sep 25th 1:00pm Eastern

Raiders (
23.75) at

Titans (
21.75)

Over/Under 45.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Raiders Run D
16th DVOA/19th Yards allowed per carry
Titans Run O
22nd DVOA/5th Yards per carry
Raiders Pass D
22nd DVOA/13th Yards allowed per pass
Titans Pass O
9th DVOA/24th Yards per pass
Titans Run D
8th DVOA/2nd Yards allowed per carry
Raiders Run O
13th DVOA/28th Yards per carry
Titans Pass D
26th DVOA/25th Yards allowed per pass
Raiders Pass O
21st DVOA/6th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>
  • Two teams at the opposite end of the spectrum in how they approach games.
  • Las Vegas plays at a moderate pace (top 10 in both first-half pace of play and situation-neutral pace of play) with elevated pass rates (70.94% overall pass rate and sixth-highest pass rate over expectation).
  • Tennessee plays at a snail’s pace (28th-ranked first-half pace of play and 26th-ranked situation-neutral pace of play) with elevated rush rates (low 53.10% overall pass rate and fifth-lowest pass rate over expectation).
  • The game environment here has many paths toward a messy environment and very few paths towards something noteworthy for fantasy.

How las vegas Will Try To Win ::

The Raiders have been forced into pass-heavy game plans of the quick-hitting variety, primarily due to the shortcomings of their offensive line (PFF’s second-worst unit to start the year – highlighted by Carr’s 2.44 second time to throw in 2022 compared to 2.72, 2.77, and 2.75 seconds over the previous three seasons). Their offense is primarily based out of 11-personnel, with sparse usage of 21- and 12-personnel. Starting slot wide receiver, Hunter Renfrow left Week 2’s overtime loss with a concussion sustained on the final play of the game and is currently in the league’s concussion protocol, which could alter the game plan for the Raiders should he miss. That said, Renfrow’s absence would likelier influence team target market shares as opposed to changing their game plan entirely.

Josh Jacobs maintains his position as the lead back in a role that historically affords more pass game usage than he is currently seeing to start the year. Jacobs ran 15 routes in Week 1 and 20 routes in Week 2, seeing only one target in each week. Jacobs’ career yards per route run ranks in the top six at the position since 2015. All of that to say, there is room for his pass game involvement to increase, particularly if Hunter Renfrow misses Week 3. Furthermore, Jacobs’ involvement increased in Week 2 when Brandon Bolden was forced to miss, increasing his snap rate from 60% to 72% (borderline elite). Expect fullback Jakob Johnson and change of pace/third down back Ameer Abdullah to mix in sparingly. The pure rushing matchup is far from ideal, yielding a paltry 4.175 net-adjusted line yards metric behind PFF’s 31st-ranked offensive line. Finally, the absence of Harold Landry is a big hit to the Titans’ defensive front against the run.

Shane Bowen and the Titans have transformed their defense over the previous two seasons, investing heavy draft capital in the secondary and attacking the pass rush heavily through free agency. Bowen’s unit employs heavy blitz packages and subsequent Cover-1 utilization, meaning Raiders pass-catchers should find themselves in man coverage a good percentage of the time this week. Enter Davante Adams, who holds the best rating against man coverage of all wide receivers since he entered the league in 2014. By all accounts, this is a get-right spot for Adams after being blanketed in Week 2. The heavy 11-personnel rate from the Las Vegas offense has meant Mack Hollins and Hunter Renfrow have been responsible for elevated snap counts of their own alongside Adams, with the only other wide receiver to see a single offensive snap this season being Tyron Johnson with a whopping three offensive snaps. Should Renfrow fail to gain clearance from his concussion, expect Keelan Cole to step into Renfrow’s slot role. Furthering our discussion of personnel that crush man coverage, Darren Waller ranked first in the league amongst tight ends against primary man coverage schemes in 2020 before struggling through multiple injuries in 2021.

How tennessee Will Try To Win ::

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While we typically like to target Derrick Henry at low ownership, this is not an ideal spot for him this week. The loss of Taylor Lewan is a massive hit to the Titans, and the Raiders have largely cracked down on the power run game to date. It’s Henry, and he always has a path to 35+ rush attempt games, so take your exposure if you want. For me, and for small field single entry and three-max contests, he will not sniff my late week condensed player pool.

On a slate with so much aerial upside, Ryan Tannehill makes absolutely zero sense. As we’ve explored this season, pay-down quarterbacks are basically betting on every pay-up quarterback failing to put the slate out of reach and the pay-down option matching them in production. That is a highly unlikely scenario for Tannehill this week.

Davante Adams should have a very nice game this week against a mix of man coverage looks – the only issue is whether or not he has a path to the “put the slate out of reach” realm, which is a little more unlikely than the other high-priced wide receivers in his range this week. Very safe floor, less chance at ceiling.

That leads to Treylon Burks, who we are all dying to see in a more featured role on the Titans offense. Realize the floor is almost nonexistent, but the ceiling is tantalizing.

Summed up:

  • I agree with JM in that this game environment is highly unlikely to pop on a week like this, meaning any exposure here will be limited to one-offs for me, personally.
  • Davante Adams is at the top of the list from a range of outcomes perspective but would need extreme efficiency to provide an outlier score.
  • Treylon Burks is the type of player that we’re just waiting to an expanded role with, meaning he’s a player I want to be early on rather than late.
  • I will likely not be going to either Ryan Tannehill or Josh Jacobs behind shaky offensive lines.

By LexMiraglia10 >>

Ryan Tannehill:

  • QBs vs LV: Herbert (279:3) // Kyler (277:1:1, 28:1)
  • Tannehill got pulled in 3rd Q of W2 with TEN down 41-7 after his pick-6
  • Tannehill went from 266:2 vs NYG to 117:0:2 vs BUF
  • Since 2020, the game scores of his 10 games of 20+ DK pts read: 46-25, 42-36, 35-41, 42-16, 41-38, 33-30, 30-24, 25-16, 27-3, 34-31, 28-25
  • That’s 8/11 games in which TEN scored 30+ pts, and 6/11 games in which the combined total finished over 60
  • TEN’s rank in pass att with Vrabel: 31 // 31 // 30 // 25
  • Tannehill has thrown 33 & 20 passes in 2022
  • Tannehill has passed for 300 yds in just 5 of his 37 starts since 2020

TEN WRs:

  • Targets: Woods (2, 5) // Burks (5, 6) // Phillips (9, 1) // NWI (2, 3)
  • Production: Woods (13 // 39) // Burks (55 // 47) // Phillips (66 // 5)
  • WRs vs LV: Keenan (66), Carter (64:1), Williams (10) // Brown (68), Dortch (55:1)
  • All four are priced between $4k to $5k on DK
  • Burks routes/dropback 13/35 and 17/28

Derrick Henry:

  • Henry rush att pre-injury in 2021: 17 // 35 // 28 // 33 // 29 // 20 // 29 // 28
  • Henry rush att in 2022: 21 // 13
  • Henry production: 82 // 25:1
  • RBs vs LV: Ekeler (36, 36) // Conner (25, 26), Williams (59, 3), Benjamin (31, 20)
  • LV ranked 9th in def rush DVOA in 2021
  • Henry vs LV: 10:45 (2016) // 6:25 (2017) // 18:103:2 (2019)

Derek Carr:

  • 10/18 QBs vs 2021 TEN scored 2+ TDs
  • 10/18 QBs passed for 290+ yds vs 2021 TEN (6 of 300+)
  • QBs vs 2022 TEN: Jones (188:2:1) // Allen (317:4)
  • Carr in 2022: 295:2:3 // 252:2
  • Carr scored 20+ DK pts in 6 g in 2021 (just 3 of 25+, high of 28)
  • Carr has scored 20+ DK pts just once in the last 13 games
  • Carr has 37 & 39 att in first two games of 2022

LV WRs:

  • 2021 TEN allowed 20 WR TDs
  • 2021 TEN allowed the 2nd most WR rec & WR yds on the most WR tg faced
  • TEN allowed the 2nd most WR DK pts/g in both 2020 & 2021
  • 11 WRs vs 2021 TEN scored 20+ DK pts: Hopkins (26.3), Kirk (24) // Lockett (34.8), Swain (21) // Davis (24.1) // Diggs (23.9), Beasley (21.8) // Pittman (30.6) // Kupp (20.5) // Bourne (23.1) // Deebo (31.1) // Amendola (33.3)
  • WRs vs 2022 TEN: Shepard (71:1), James (59) // Diggs (148:3)
  • Targets: Adams (17, 7) // Renfrow (6, 10) // Hollins (1, 8)
  • RZ tg: Adams (3, 2) // Renfrow (0, 2)
  • Production: Adams (141:1, 12:1) // Renfrow (21, 59) // Hollins (16, 66)

Darren Waller:

  • Targets: 6, 8
  • RZ tg: 1, 2
  • Production: 79 // 50:1
  • TEN allowed the 5th fewest DK pts/g to TEs in 2021
  • 2022 TEs vs TEN: Myarick (1:1:1) // Knox (4:41)

LV RBs:

  • 2021 TEN allowed the fewest RB DK pts/g (18.6) and 2nd fewest RB rush yds 
  • 2021 TEN allowed just 9 RB rush TDs, 1 RB rec TD
  • 2022 RBs vs TEN: Saquon (164:1, 6:30) // Cook (53), Singletary (19, 2)
  • Touches: Jacobs (10, 1 // 19, 1) // Abdullah (0, 1 // 0, 1)
  • Production: Jacobs (57, 16 // 69, 12) // Abdullah (0 // 23)
  • Jacobs has just two games of 20+ DK pts since start of 2021, and in one he caught 9 passes

Kickoff Sunday, Sep 25th 1:00pm Eastern

Eagles (
27) at

WFT (
20.5)

Over/Under 47.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Eagles Run D
23rd DVOA/9th Yards allowed per carry
Commanders Run O
27th DVOA/12th Yards per carry
Eagles Pass D
2nd DVOA/11th Yards allowed per pass
Commanders Pass O
27th DVOA/21st Yards per pass
Commanders Run D
6th DVOA/8th Yards allowed per carry
Eagles Run O
6th DVOA/1st Yards per carry
Commanders Pass D
30th DVOA/29th Yards allowed per pass
Eagles Pass O
4th DVOA/25th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>
  • The Eagles hold the second fastest first-half pace of play and the slowest second-half pace of play, indicative of intent versus game flow over the first two weeks.
  • The Commanders hold the league’s fifth-highest blitz rate and lowest quarterback hurry rate through two weeks – not a great combination.
  • Both teams rank in the top five in plays per game through two weeks, a testament to the first-half pace shown by the Eagles and the pass-heavy approach from the Commanders.
  • This game environment could turn into one of the top environments on the slate if the Commanders can muster some more second-half gusto. 

How philadelphia Will Try To Win ::

Nick Sirianni’s Eagles are thought of as this run-first offense that keeps you on your heels through pace. While that is not far from the truth, it seems as if that statement is simply scratching the surface as to the depth of this offensive unit this season. The primarily 11- and 12-personnel-based offense utilizes their mobile quarterback, the top-ranked offensive line in the league (per PFF), a three-way stable of dynamic running backs, one of the most athletic tight ends in the game, and now an elite wide receiver corps consisting of the electric A.J. Brown, dynamic second-year pro DeVonta Smith, and burner slot man Quez Watkins to layer its attack through misdirection, brute force, and athleticism. Hurts has been able to complete 70% of his passes this year with top five marks in average air yards per attempt, meaning he’s been both precise and capable of inflicting chunk damage all at once. Basically, this offense can beat you at all three levels on the field in any given play.

On the ground, quarterback Jalen Hurts is really the team’s lead running back, with a stable of three relatively dynamic backs behind him. Miles Sanders leads the team in rushing with a healthy 5.87 yards per carry on 30 carries, good for 176 yards on the ground through two games. Sanders has played just over 50% of the offensive snaps each week thus far, spelled frequently by both Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott in the backfield. As far as fantasy expectations go, it has never been about expected overall rushing success with this team under Sirianni and Hurts – it’s simply a matter of a four-way split in expected workload on the ground. For example, Hurts leads the team in rushing scores, Sanders leads the team in rushing yards, and all four of Hurts, Sanders, Gainwell, and Scott have found paint in the first two weeks of the season (Hurts – 4, Sanders – 1, Gainwell – 1, Scott – 1). The matchup on the ground yields an elite 4.69 net-adjusted line yards metric against a Commanders defense overperforming to start the season, considering the injuries to their first and second level.

The addition of A.J. Brown to this offseason was one of the “gets of the summer,” completing a dynamic skill position roster including a downfield and mobile passer, elite speed at all positions, the top-ranked offensive line, and elite yards after the catch ability. The technical aspects of the route running of Brown, Smith, Goedert, and even Watkins is one of the more under-discussed aspects of this pass-catching unit, but something that mustn’t go unnoticed moving forward. So, while the team carries elite downfield chops, their eighth-ranked yards after the catch value and fifth-ranked average intended air yards are a dangerous combination. Second-year wide receiver DeVonta Smith has played all but four offensive snaps to start the season, with newcomer “alpha” (in quotes because Smith could be the alpha on most NFL rosters) A.J. Brown playing almost 90% of the offensive snaps weekly. Tight end Dallas Goedert has developed into an all-around, near every-down NFL tight end, while downfield burner/slot man Quez Watkins typically handles 55-60% of the offensive snaps. Washington’s blitz-heavy (41.5% through two games) and man-heavy defense have allowed a startling 9.2 average depth of target (third deepest) and third most air yards to date in 2022, including five passing scores and a minuscule 1.2% hurry rate. I spoke to the injuries to the Washington defensive line and linebacker unit above, which highlights the struggles generated by heavy blitz rates and borderline zero pressure rates thus far.

How washington Will Try To Win ::

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OVERVIEW

  • Sixth highest game total of Week 3, although it has fallen three full points since opening
  • PHI’s implied total of 26.75 is the fifth highest
  • WAS’s 20.25 is tied for the eighth lowest
  • The negative line movement has all come on the WAS side
  • In fact, PHI’s total has gone up
  • The 6.5 pt spread is tied for the second widest
  • Per numberFire, each team is about average in adjusted seconds per play (PHI at 17th, WAS at 18th)
  • PHI is tied for fourth in ppg with 31
  • WAS ranks eighth
  • PHI’s offense is tied for second in yards per play despite facing the second most offensive penalties per game
  • The WAS defense is tied for fourth in ppg allowed with 29 and tied for second in yards per play allowed

Jalen Hurts

  • First in PFF passing grade behind the first ranked offensive line
  • Hurts ($7,600) ranks fourth in Pass EPA/play, 10th in CPOE, fifth in adj. YPA, third in air yard completion %, & 13th in on-target % (per 4for4’s Player Stat Explorer)
  • The WAS secondary is ranked 23rd by PFF
  • Hurts’s game logs: Week 1 @ DET 18/32:243 & 17:90:1 // Week 2 vs. MIN 26/31:333:1:1 & 11:57:2
  • His 30.9 DK ppg ranks fourth
  • His Week 3 DK salary is a career high
  • He’s scored 4x that salary four times
  • WAS ranked 21st in DK ppg allowed to QBs
  • Notable opposing QB scores since 2021: Patrick Mahomes 27.98 // Daniel Jones 29.46 // Jalen Hurts 29.64 // Dak Prescott 34.3 // Josh Allen 40.22

PHI Passing Attack

  • Snap share: DeVonta Smith 97.3% // Dallas Goedert 88% // A.J. Brown 87.3% // Quez Watkins 56%
  • Target share: Brown 33.3% // Smith 17.5% // Goedert 15.9%
  • Targets: Brown 21 // Smith 11 // Goedert 10
  • Brown ($7,300) ranks second in target share, second in air yard share, second in WOPR, ninth in yards per route run, & 20th in targets per route run
  • His game logs: 10/13:155 // 5/8:69
  • He ranks third in PFF receiving grade
  • His 20.2 DK ppg ranks 14th
  • He’s scored 4x his Week 3 DK salary six times in 53 career games
  • Smith’s ($5,200) game log: 0/4:0 // 7/7:80
  • He’s scored 20+ DK pts three times since entering the league in 2021
  • WAS ranks 28th in DK ppg allowed to WRs
  • Notable opposing WR scores since 2021: Emmanuel Sanders 26.4 // Amon-Ra St. Brown 42.4
  • Goedert ($4,700) ranks tied 12th in target share
  • His game logs: 3/4:60 // 5/6:82
  • His 11.1 DK ppg ranks eighth
  • He’s scored 15+ DK pts four times since 2021, including scores of 23.5 & 31.5
  • WAS ranked 12th in DK ppg allowed to TEs
  • Notable opposing TE scores since 2021: Robert Tonyan 16.3 // Travis Kelce 17.9 // Dalton Schultz 22.2 // Goedert 23.5

PHI Rushing Attack

  • Snap share: Miles Sanders 52.7% // Kenneth Gainwell 28%
  • Target share: Gainwell 9.5% // Sanders 7.9%
  • Targets: Gainwell 6 // Sanders 5
  • Attempts: Sanders 30 // Boston Scott 8 // Gainwell 7
  • Redzone rushes: Jalen Hurts 5 // Sanders 3 // Gainwell 2 // Scott 1
  • Sanders ($5,500) ranks fourth in rush yards over expected per carry, seventh in yards after contact per carry, & 20th in high value touch % (per 4for4)
  • He’s PFF seventh ranked RB in rushing grade
  • His game logs: 13:96:1 & 2/2:9 // 17:80 & 3/3:6
  • His 15.1 DK ppg ranks 14th
  • His Week 3 DK salary is $1,300 lower than his highest cost last year
  • He’s scored 20+ DK pts once since 2021
  • WAS ranks 26th in DK ppg allowed to RBs
  • Notable opposing RB scores since 2021: Scott 24.6 // CMC 24.9 // Alvin Kamara 29.2 // Cordarrelle Patterson 34.6

Carson Wentz

  • 18th in PFF passing grade behind the seventh ranked offensive line
  • Wentz ($6,300) ranks ninth in Pass EPA/play, 12th in adj. YPA, 12th in ADoT, & fourth in pocket time (per 4for4)
  • The PHI secondary is ranked eighth by PFF
  • Wentz’s game logs: Week 1 vs. JAX 27/41:313:4:2 // Week 2 @ DET 30/46:337:3:1
  • His 32.2 DK ppg ranks third
  • He’s scored 4x his Week 3 salary four times out of 19 games since leaving PHI
  • His scores the past two weeks are his career best and third best outputs
  • PHI ranks ninth in DK ppg allowed to QBs
  • Notable opposing QB scores since 2021: Trevor Siemian 26.16 // Dak Prescott 31.8 // Patrick Mahomes 32.72 // Justin Herbert 34.64

WAS Passing Attack

  • Snap share: Jahan Dotson 93.4% // Terry McLaurin 89.4% // Curtis Samuel 80.1% // Logan Thomas 67.5%
  • Target share: Samuel 23% // McLaurin 13.8% // Thomas 12.6% // Dotson 11.5%
  • Targets: Samuel 20 // McLaurin 12 // Thomas 11 // Dotson 10
  • Samuel’s ($5,100) game logs: 8/11:55:1 // 7/9:78:1
  • He ranks 25th in PFF receiving grade
  • His 21.6 DK ppg ranks ninth
  • Since 2020, Samuel’s scored 20+ DK pts eight times in 37 games
  • McLaurin ($6,400) ranks 12th in ADot (per 4for4)
  • His game logs: 2/4:58:1 // 4/8:75
  • Out of 46 career games, he’s scored 4x his Week 3 salary eight times
  • Dotson ($4,600) ranks seventh in end zone target share
  • His game logs: 3/5:40:2 // 4/5:59:1
  • He ranks 28th in PFF grade
  • His 17.9 DK ppg ranks 19th
  • PHI ranks 13th in DK ppg allowed to WRs
  • Notable opposing WR scores since 2021: Keenan Allen 25.4 // Mike Evans 29.7 // Cedrick Wilson 31.9 // Tyreek Hill 50.6
  • Thomas ($3,500) ranks sixth in air yard share, first in ADoT, & 12th in YPRR
  • His game logs: 3/6:45 // 3/5:37:1
  • His 10.1 DK ppg ranks 10th
  • He last scored 15+ DK pts in 2020 (16 & 26.1)
  • PHI ranks 26th in DK ppg allowed to TEs
  • Notable opposing TE scores since 2021: Foster Moreau 18 // T.J. Hockenson 18.9 // Dalton Schultz 26

WAS Rushing Attack

  • Snap share: Antonio Gibson 58.9% // J.D. McKissic 43%
  • Target share: Gibson 13.8% // McKissic 11.5%
  • Targets: Gibson 12 // McKissic 10
  • Attempts: Gibson 28 // McKissic 6
  • Redzone touches: Gibson 5 // Carson Wentz 1
  • Gibson ($6,400) ranks 10th in % of team carries, tied for fifth in % of team redzone carries, & eighth in high value touch % (per 4for4)
  • He’s PFF 21st ranked RB in rushing grade
  • His game logs: 14:58 & 7/8:72 // 14:28:1 & 2/4:13
  • Gibson’s 16.1 DK ppg ranks 12th
  • He’s scored 20+ DK pts six times in his last 18 games
  • McKissic’s ($5,300) game logs: 3:8 & 3/3:20 // 3:9 & 7/7:54
  • He’s scored 20+ DK pts twice in his last 13 games
  • PHI ranks 28th in DK ppg allowed to RBs
  • Notable opposing RB scores since 2021: Ezekiel Elliott 26.6 // D’Andre Swift 29.5 // Leonard Fournette 30.7

Kickoff Sunday, Sep 25th 4:05pm Eastern

Jaguars (
20) at

Chargers (
26.5)

Over/Under 46.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Jaguars Run D
12th DVOA/24th Yards allowed per carry
Chargers Run O
30th DVOA/21st Yards per carry
Jaguars Pass D
7th DVOA/17th Yards allowed per pass
Chargers Pass O
6th DVOA/3rd Yards per pass
Chargers Run D
18th DVOA/30th Yards allowed per carry
Jaguars Run O
25th DVOA/22nd Yards per carry
Chargers Pass D
11th DVOA/12th Yards allowed per pass
Jaguars Pass O
8th DVOA/22nd Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson>>
  • We still don’t know for sure who the Jaguars are, but this week will be a great litmus test.
  • There are several key factors clearly working in favor of the Chargers.
  • The strength of the Chargers offense matches up perfectly with the “path of least resistance” of the Jaguars defense.
  • If the Jaguars can score some first half points and keep this game competitive, the tempo could really turn up in the second half.

How Jacksonville Will Try To Win ::

The Jaguars have had a solid start to the season, losing a close road game in Washington in Week 1 and then stomping the injury-ridden Colts in Week 2. However, we still don’t truly know what to make of this new-look Jacksonville team as they have yet to face a top-tier team at full strength. We won’t have to wait much longer, however, as the Jaguars are set for a cross-country road trip to face a Chargers team that is one of the favorites in the AFC and is coming off a 10-day rest following a tough loss to the Chiefs that should have been a huge statement road victory. 

Jacksonville is passing the ball on 58% of their plays, which is right around league average and has operated with a percentage point of their “expected pass rate” based on the game situations they have been in. The Jags have operated at a slower than league average pace of play, both in terms of overall pace and situation-neutral pace. However, the Jaguars offense appears to have turned a corner after a miserable 2021 season, as they have scored over 20 points in consecutive games to start the season after doing so only five times in 17 games last year. Christian Kirk, the prized free agent acquisition from the offseason, has emerged as the “alpha” wide receiver for Trevor Lawrence, while fellow newcomers Evan Engram and Zay Jones have quickly established rapport and become trusted options as well. The Jaguars backfield also appears strong and has a nice 1-2 punch in James Robinson and Travis Etienne, with Robinson icing the game away last week with 25 total touches and Etienne appearing to be primarily the third down and hurry-up option with occasional early down work mixed in.

This will be a tough test for Jacksonville against a Chargers defense that has a ferocious pass rush and opportunistic secondary and just held Patrick Mahomes to a pedestrian 235 passing yards in Week 2. The “weakness” of the Chargers defense is their run defense, which currently ranks 30th in yards allowed per carry. Unfortunately for the Jaguars, they currently have PFF’s 30th graded run blocking offensive line and are 22nd in yards per carry in their own right. The Jaguars will likely try to control the game on the ground, but will also look to use screens and short to intermediate area passing to move the chains and keep Justin Herbert off the field. Trevor Lawrence currently ranks 6th in the NFL with a whopping 9.8 yards per pass attempt when using play-action, something the Jaguars will certainly use to try to open up holes in the back end of the defense and to keep the Chargers pass rush at bay.

How los Angeles Will Try To Win ::

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There are some interesting pieces and exciting players in this game, but also some situations that are keeping me from fully becoming interested in this game.

  • Rostering Justin Herbert with fractured rib cartilage on a slate where there are so many other premium QB options is tough for me to pull the trigger on. I certainly think Herbert will have a good game, and he could even have a game in the 25-30 point range and that would not surprise me. However, the risk here of re-injury and/or the Chargers simply going out of their way to protect him with more conservative play calling or taking their foot off the gas sooner than usual if they get a lead makes it not worth it to me to roster Herbert over some of the similarly priced premium QB’s.
  • Keenan Allen’s status will affect how I approach the receiving corps. If he is active, I won’t be going here outside of a couple of game stacks I may build.
    • For his price, Mike Williams simply doesn’t command the target share needed when Allen is active unless the Chargers are in a shootout. Williams also tends to have his really big games align with the ceiling games for Herbert, so based on my approach to Herbert I will have limited, if any, exposure to Williams.
    • Josh Palmer played every snap with Keenan Allen out in Week 2. He’s a great way to access this offense if Allen were to sit again, but is an overpriced WR3 if Allen plays.
    • If Keenan Allen is out, I will have a lot of interest in both Mike Williams and Josh Palmer. As of Friday morning, Allen seems on track to return this week.
  • Austin Ekeler’s price simply doesn’t reflect his current role. He lost goal line snaps to Sony Michel and third down snaps to Joshua Kelley in Week 2. Perhaps that had to do with the short week, but if the Chargers are committed to “keeping him fresh” this year and a huge battle with the Chiefs for divisional control when Ekeler is fully healthy doesn’t get him a bell cow role, we probably aren’t seeing it in this game either. I *may* have some interest in Ekeler on Fanduel and Yahoo, where touchdowns are at a premium and salary is looser.
  • The Chargers defense is certainly viable, especially on Fanduel and Yahoo, in a matchup where they should have a lot of opportunities for sacks and turnovers. 
  • Christian Kirk is the clear alpha wide receiver in this offense and has a high likelihood of seeing double digit targets in this matchup and likely game environment. Kirk’s salary on all sites doesn’t reflect his role on his new team.
  • I will expand on this theory in my Player Grid in the Scroll this week, but both Trevor Lawrence and Travis Etienne are low priced options at their respective positions who should have spiked volume this week. Both are usable options together or on their own.

By Dwprix >>

Overview

  • 48.0 is the 5th highest total on the slate
  • LAC is favored by 7, the biggest spread on the week
  • These teams faced each other in 2020 when JAC only one win all season
  • LAC won 39-29 (Minshew vs Herbert)

Trevor Lawrence

  • Lawrence was protected well last week: 0 sacks allowed, just 2 QB hits
  • He only had five incompletions & threw for 235 yds, 2 TDs
  • Lawrence has broke 20+ DK pts just twice in 19 games
  • He’s only thrown for 300+ twice in his career // one of these in his first game
  • He only has one game with 3 pass TDs // his first game in the NFL
  • Lawrence has 7 games with zero pass TDs
  • LAC vs QBs: (Carr 16.8 DK pts) // (Mahomes 17.3 DK pts )

JAC WRs

  • Targets: (Kirk 12, 6) // (Marvin Jones 5, 6) // (Zay Jones 9,4)
  • Kirk’s scored 4x DK salary in both games 4.5x // Wk1: 4.1x
  • His price has went from $5.1k to $5.7k to $6.3k this week
  • To score 3x salary: 18.9 // 4x: 25.2 // 5x: 31.5
  • Marvin’s price went down price went down $300 on DK // Zay’s has went down $100 since Wk1
  • LAC D kept all KC WRs under 10 DK pts last week
  • They let Davante score 33.1 in Wk1

JAC RBs

  • Attempts: Robinson (23, 11) // Etienne (9, 4)
  • Robinson had zero 20+ rush games last season but did have four as a rookie in 2020
  • Targets: Robinson (2, 1) // Etienne (3, 4)
  • RZ carries:RZ targets: Robinson (6:2) // Etienne (1:3)
  • Robinson has 3 TDs // Etienne has yet to score
  • Robinson rushed for 22:119:1 TD vs JAC in 2020
  • LAC ranks 13th in rush dvoa
  • They finished 30th last season
  • Opponents have rushed the least against LAC (23.0 attempts/g) but are averaging 5.1/carry

Evan Engram

  • Engram was targeted 8 times last week (7:46)
  • That was his highest target count in 11 games
  • He has an 18% target share
  • LAC allowed 10.1 DK pts to Kelce & 11.9 to Waller

Justin Herbert

  • Herbert’s thrown 3 TDs in both games this season
  • He’s 5th in pass yds (613) // LAC ranks 6th in pass attempts (41.0)
  • Williams, Everett, & Ekeler saw 10 tgts last week
  • JAC D ranked last in defensive pass dvoa in 2021, with 10 QBs scoring 2+ TDs
  • They have 5 INTs through two weeks against Matt Ryan & Jared Goff
  • JAC ranks 3rd in defensive pass dvoa
  • Herbert, who’s dealing with a rib injury, now faces a D that got 5 sacks, 11 QB hits, & 18 pressures last week

LAC WRs

  • Williams without Allen: last week 8:113:1 TD-10 tgts // last season 6:61-6 tgts
  • Palmer: last week 4:30-8 tgts // last season 6:61:1 TD-7 tgts
  • Tgt share: (Williams 18%) // (Palmer 15%)
  • Herbert targeted 11 WRs Wk1 & eight last week
  • JAC allowed four TDs to WRs Wk1 but zero last week
  • WK 1 allowed to WRs: (McClaurin 2:58:1 TD) // (Samuel 8:55:1 TD) // (Dotson 3:40:2 TDs)

Austin Ekeler

  • Ekeler rushed 14 times last week 
  • Kelly & Michel had 4 each
  • Ekeler has a 44% carry share // 18% tgt share
  • Ekeler had zero games last season with more than 17 rush attempts but still scored 12 rush TDs
  • JAC D ranks 4th in yds/rush (3.4), 3rd in rush yds/g (69.5), 7th least rush attempts/g, and has yet to allow a rush TD
  • Ekeler has zero rushing or receiving TDs so far
  • His average of 14.8 Dk pts/g is 1.9x this week’s salary

Gerald Everett

  • Everett has 14 tgts which is tied for 8th among TEs
  • 18% tgt share
  • Everett’s game log: (6:71-10 tgts) // (3:54-4 tgts)
  • He’s 4th among TEs in DK pts/g: 13.8 
  • The three averaging more: Kelce, Andrews, Waller
  • JAC allowed to TEs: (Cox 1:9) // (Thomas 3:45)

Kickoff Sunday, Sep 25th 4:25pm Eastern

Rams (
26) at

Cards (
22.5)

Over/Under 48.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Rams Run D
3rd DVOA/6th Yards allowed per carry
Cardinals Run O
14th DVOA/10th Yards per carry
Rams Pass D
25th DVOA/22nd Yards allowed per pass
Cardinals Pass O
25th DVOA/10th Yards per pass
Cardinals Run D
11th DVOA/20th Yards allowed per carry
Rams Run O
19th DVOA/25th Yards per carry
Cardinals Pass D
28th DVOA/7th Yards allowed per pass
Rams Pass O
22nd DVOA/5th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson>>
  • Matchups on both sides will encourage these teams to put the ball in the hands of their quarterbacks early and often.
  • Arizona blitz tendencies leave them vulnerable to a Rams passing offense that is built to exploit it.
  • The Rams lack of ability to create pressure on the quarterback so far this year could be problematic in containing Kyler Murray.
  • Neither team is likely to have much success running the ball, and both teams project to increase their tempo from what we’ve seen in the first two weeks.

How los angeles Will Try To Win ::

The Rams got back on track in Week 2, dominating an overmatched Falcons team for most of the game before giving them a glimmer of hope late due to a lack of aggressiveness and a few self-imposed mistakes. After looking completely overmatched against the Bills, the Rams looked more like their old selves as they scored 31 points in that Week 2 game. However, they still have a ways to go before we can start comparing them to last year’s offensive juggernaut that won the Super Bowl. Week 3 may be just what they need, as they face a Cardinals defense that ranks 32nd in pass defense DVOA, according to Football Outsiders, and also ranks 32nd in PFF’s coverage grades. Adding fuel to that fire, the Cardinals are blitzing at a league-leading 50% rate and Matthew Stafford has historically been terrific against the blitz, including last year when he averaged a massive 8.6 passing yards per attempt and had a 7:1 TD-to-INT ratio across three meetings with these Cardinals.

The Rams are actually passing more to start this season than they did last year, with their offense throwing at a top-10 pass rate over expectation through two weeks. However, their pace of play has dropped considerably this year as they are currently 29th in the league in situation-neutral pace of play after ranking 4th in that same category last year. It is still early in the season, so those trends could just be the fluky result of a small sample size. The Rams were likely trying to slow the game down and keep Josh Allen off the field in Week 1, and then trying to ice the game against an inferior opponent in the Falcons in Week 2. This week should give us a better idea of whether this slower pace is more “signal” or “noise” in regards to their approach this year, as a matchup against a competitive divisional foe who they are tied with in the standings should encourage them to push the tempo and keep their foot on the gas. In regards to play calling, we are likely to see a pass-happy Rams approach this week due to the advantages in the passing game laid out above as well as the struggles that the Rams 29th graded rushing offense by PFF have had to start the year. The blitzing Cardinals are going to leave Cooper Kupp in man coverage and allow Matthew Stafford to pick them apart on the back end, so there will be little reason for the Rams to move to a more balanced approach in this matchup.

How Arizona Will Try To Win ::

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Overview

  • 48.5 is the 4th highest total of the week
  • LAR favored by 3.5
  • ARZ has given up the most points in the league (67) facing LV & KC
  • Last season LAR started 8-1 (only loss during that stretch was to ARZ)
  • ARZ started 8-0
  • These teams split their games last season: (ARZ 37 @ LAR 20 @ ) // (LAR 30 @ ARZ 23)
  • ARZ has allowed 23 pts to LV & 44 to KC
  • LAR has allowed 27 pts to ATL & 31 to BUF

Matthew Stafford

  • Last season vs ARZ: (23:30:287:3 TDs, 23.5 DK pts) // (26:41:280:2 TDs:1 INT, 20.3 DK pts)
  • Stafford’s thrown for 300+ in four out of his last eight
  • This season he’s one for two
  • ARZ DK pts allowed to QB: (Carr 19.0) // (Mahomes 37.9)
  • They rank 28th in defensive pass dvoa

LAR WRs

  • Targets: Kupp (14, 15) // Robinson (5, 2) // Skowronek (3,6)
  • Kupps scored in 8 straight games including playoffs
  • He has seven TDs in his last four
  • Over this season & last season, he has 15 games of 100+ rec yds (23 games)
  • ARZ held Davante Adams in check last week: 2:12:1 TD-7 tgts
  • They also held all the KC WRs under 15 DK pts

LARs RBs

  • Akers had 15 carries to Henderson’s 10 last week
  • He averaged just 2.9/rush // Henderson averaged 4.7/rush
  • Wk1 Henderson out carried Akers 13-3
  • Akers snaps Wk1: 12 // Henderson: 55
  • Akers snaps Wk2: 27 // Henderson: 35
  • ARZ allowed to RBs: (CEH 22.4 DK pts) // (Jacobs 9.1)

Tyler Higbee

  • Tgts: (9, 11)
  • 10.0 tgts/g leads the TE position // tied for 14th overall
  • His DK price went from $4.2k Wk2 to $4.5k Wk3
  • ARZ allowed to TEs: (Waller 6:50:1 TD) // (Kelce 8:121:1 TD)

Kyler Murray

  • Murray DK pts without Hopkins last season: (13.6 // 21.9 // 22.9 // 17.1 // 6.1)
  • This season: (26.9 // 20.6)
  • Pass attempts: (49 // 34) rush attempts: (5 // 5)
  • Last season pass attempts: (34.4/g) // rush attempts: (6.3/g)
  • It’s been 8 games since Murray has scored over 25 DK pts 
  • 25 DK pts would be 3.5x his salary this week
  • LAR DK pts allowed to QB: (Mariota 16.4) // (Allen 33.5)

ARZ WRs

  • Andy Isabella & Rondale Moore missed last week
  • Snap % through two weeks: (Brown 94%) // (Green 80%) // (Dortch 80%)
  • Brown targets: (11,6) // Green: (7, 4) // Dortch: (4, 9)
  • LAR ranks 27th in defensive pass dvoa
  • They let Stefon Diggs go 8:122:1 TD-14 targets Wk1 

ARZ RBs

  • James Conner was injured (ankle) in the 3rd qtr last week
  • Darrel Williams played 60% of snaps after zero in Wk1
  • Eno Benjamin played a little more than Wk1: 34% Wk1 // 43% Wk2
  • Conner is questionable this week // Williams-$5.1k, Benjamin-$4.7k
  • No ARZ RB has reached 3x salary yet 
  • Williams was the closest last week: 8:59:1 TD // 14.2 DK pts // 2.95x
  • LAR ranks 1st in defensive rush dvoa
  • They held ATL to 90 yds on 27 carries last week

Zach Ertz:

  • Ertz is tied for the team lead with 11 targets last week (8:75)
  • LAR allowed to TEs: (Pitts 2:19-2 tgts // (Knox1:5-2 tgts)
  • He’s scored 15.5 & 11.4 DK pts
  • His salary on DK has went up $100 each week: $4.4k to $4.5k to $4.6k

Kickoff Sunday, Sep 25th 4:25pm Eastern

Falcons (
21.25) at

Hawks (
22.25)

Over/Under 43.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Falcons Run D
26th DVOA/27th Yards allowed per carry
Seahawks Run O
8th DVOA/11th Yards per carry
Falcons Pass D
17th DVOA/18th Yards allowed per pass
Seahawks Pass O
3rd DVOA/23rd Yards per pass
Seahawks Run D
19th DVOA/17th Yards allowed per carry
Falcons Run O
2nd DVOA/31st Yards per carry
Seahawks Pass D
32nd DVOA/31st Yards allowed per pass
Falcons Pass O
18th DVOA/16th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>
  • Both teams have run-based identities but playmakers who are capable of breaking things open.
  • Seattle is showing signs they may be considering opening things up, but Atlanta will need to be pushed.
  • Pace of play is slow on both sides, meaning even if there are some big plays, we are unlikely to see a true shootout situation.
  • Atlanta could be a poor showing or two away from turning to Desmond Ridder at QB.

How Atlanta Will Try To Win ::

The Falcons rank bottom-10 in the league in pass rate over expectation as well as situation-neutral pace of play. After blowing a big 4th quarter lead against the Saints in Week 1, the Falcons struggled mightily to move the ball for most of the game against the stout run defense of the Rams, which neutralized the Falcons preferred method of attack. Despite possessing two young, dynamic talents in their receiving corps in Kyle Pitts and Drake London, the Falcons insist on trying to pound the ball on the ground behind PFF’s 28th graded run blocking offensive line. They now face a Seahawks run defense that ranks 3rd in rush defense DVOA by Football Outsiders despite facing two solid rushing offenses in the Broncos and 49ers.

It is unlikely that the Falcons open things up or speed things up on the road in Seattle, as we saw in Week 1 on Monday night when the Broncos could barely get plays off due to crowd noise issues. If the Falcons were not aggressive throwing against the Rams, they certainly won’t open things up of their own volition against the Seahawks despite the tough matchup. We should expect more of the same from Atlanta, with Cordarrelle Patterson and rookie running back Tyler Allgeier splitting carries, and Marcus Mariota mixing in some designed runs as well as scrambles. When the Falcons do take to the air, they are likely to rely heavily on stud rookie Drake London (19 targets through two games) and tight end Kyle Pitts, as the Seahawks Cover-3 scheme is vulnerable to tight ends in the middle of the field and gave up a lot of production to the Broncos tight ends in Week 1 before giving up a 38-yard touchdown to 49ers tight end Ross Dwelley in Week 2.

How seattle Will Try To Win ::

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Geno Smith:

  • 10/17 QBs topped 225 pass yds vs ATL in 2021, but just 5 surpassed 275 and only 1 reached 300 yds
  • Geno is completing 81% of his passes, but has yet to top 200 yds on his 29 att/g
  • Geno’s 5 starts since 2021 (DK pts): 11.3 // 11.9 // 22.6 // 17.2 // 7.1
  • QBs vs ATL: Winston (269:2) // Stafford (272:3)

SEA WRs:

  • 2021 ATL allowed the 5th most WR rec & the 6th most WR DK pts/g
  • ATL has already allowed four 50+ yd WRs and 5 WR TDs, including Landry (7:114), Thomas (5:57:2), Kupp (11:108:2), ARob (4:53:1)
  • SEA tg: Lockett (3 // 11) // Metcalf (7 // 6)
  • DK pts: Lockett (5.8 // 22.7) // Metcalf (10.6 // 7.5)
  • Sub-10 yd tg: Lockett (8) // Metcalf (9)
  • 10+ yd tg: Lockett (6) // Metcalf (4)
  • ATL has faced the 12th shortest aDOT through two weeks vs NOR & LAR

Noah Fant:

  • Fant has just 4 & 2 tg, one more than Dissly (3 & 2)
  • Fant has totaled 27 yds through two weeks
  • TEs with 40+ yds vs ATL in 2021: Goedert (42:1) // Gronk (40:2; 58:2) // Gesicki (85:1) // Trautman (47) // Kittle (93)
  • 2022 TEs vs ATL: Johnson (43) // Higbee (71)

Rashad Penny:

  • None of the NOR & LAR RBs have topped 50 rush yds yet vs ATL
  • Penny has 85 yds on just 18 att through two weeks
  • Scores of Penny’s big games to close 2021: 33-13 // 24-25 // 51-29 // 38-30
  • SEA’s 2022 scores: 17-16 // 7-27
  • Lead RB in Geno’s 2021 games: Collins (20:101:1) // Collins (16:35) // Collins (10:44)

Marcus Mariota:

  • Mariota’s games since 2019::
  • Passing: (226:1:1 // 215:0 // 196:2:2); Rushing (88:1 // 72:1 // 16)
  • 2021 SEA allowed the 9th fewest QB rush yds
  • 2022 QBs vs SEA are currently averaging 7.9 yds/att and the 8th fewest completed air yds
  • Mariota is the 19th most expensive QB of the W3 starting QBs on the slate

Drake London:

  • London has 7 tg short of 10 yds and 11 tg over 10 yds
  • London has 160 yds of Mariota’s 411 pass yds (38.9%)
  • WRs vs SEA: Jeudy (102:1), Sutton (72) // Aiyuk (63), Deebo (63, 53)
  • SEA has allowed the most YAC in the league through 2 weeks
  • London has 59 of his 160 yds after the catch
  • London has 2 RZ tg

Kyle Pitts:

  • SEA allowed the 8th highest TE DK pts/g in 2021
  • Pitts has 7 & 3 tg in 2022
  • Pitts has just 2 rec for 19 yds in both games so far
  • Delanie Walker had 800+ yds in all 3 of his seasons with Mariota in TEN
  • Darren Waller, went for 9:150:1 on 12 tg in the 2020 Mariota LV game

Cordarelle Patterson:

  • CPatt volume: (22 att, 5 tg) // (10 att, 1 tg)
  • CPatt production: Rush (120 // 41) // Rec (16 // 0)
  • CPatt has 3 RZ touches in each game
  • RBs vs SEA (total yds): Javonte (108), Gordon (72) // Wilson (103), Davis-Price (33)
  • Both Javonte & Gordon fumbled at the GL vs SEA

Kickoff Sunday, Sep 25th 4:25pm Eastern

Packers (
20.5) at

Bucs (
21.5)

Over/Under 42.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Packers Run D
28th DVOA/11th Yards allowed per carry
Buccaneers Run O
29th DVOA/26th Yards per carry
Packers Pass D
9th DVOA/10th Yards allowed per pass
Buccaneers Pass O
10th DVOA/1st Yards per pass
Buccaneers Run D
17th DVOA/3rd Yards allowed per carry
Packers Run O
5th DVOA/18th Yards per carry
Buccaneers Pass D
3rd DVOA/21st Yards allowed per pass
Packers Pass O
14th DVOA/8th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson>>
  • Offensively, these teams are a shell of who they have been in recent years.
  • Offseason losses and accumulating injuries have left these aging quarterbacks struggling to keep their team’s heads above water.
  • Several factors could lead to this game being ugly, including the strength of defenses, offensive personnel issues, and conservative strategies of both teams.
  • While this game’s over/under of 41.5 points may seem low, the four games these teams have played have averaged 29.5 total points per game, with no games over 37 points.

How green bay Will Try To Win ::

Green Bay’s offense looked much better on Sunday Night Football against the Bears than they had in Week 1 but they were playing a bottom-tier Bears team so it’s hard to take too much from that one game. The Packers did increase their usage of their running backs (Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon) with a lot of success. This is something that Aaron Rodgers has spoken about doing now that Davante Adams is gone – building their offense around Jones and Dillon, as they are the two best playmakers the team has at this point. The result of that effort in Week 2 was the duo being used on 39 of the Packers 66 offensive plays, a whopping 59%. From a tempo standpoint, the Packers are continuing their trend of recent years by bleeding the play clock regularly and playing at the second slowest pace of play in the NFL through two weeks.

Week 3 will present a huge challenge to the Packers, as they go on the road to face a Bucs defense that has given up 13 total points through two weeks against the Cowboys and Saints. The Bucs defense has been a “pass funnel” in recent years due to their strong front seven being stout against the run, and they once again rank top-3 in the NFL in yards per carry allowed through two weeks. Complicating things more for the Packers, the Bucs pass defense is also playing at an elite level. They rank 1st in the NFL in pass defense DVOA, per Football Outsiders, and 1st in the league in PFF coverage grade.

Honestly, I’m not sure what the Packers can or will do in this game to have offensive success. They are built to rely on their running backs, but it seems highly unlikely that they will be able to do that in this matchup, and they lack explosive weapons on the perimeter who can win matchups against such a good coverage unit. I would expect the Packers to continue playing at a methodical pace and just try to keep things close in the hopes that the offensive issues of the Bucs can give them some short fields to build a lead and win a field goal contest.

How tampa bay Will Try To Win ::

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Tom Brady:

  • Slow start for Brady in 2022 with new & injured weapons against strong defenses, finishing W1 & W2 with just 212:1:1 and 190:1:0
  • Brady scored multiple TDs in 15/19 games in 2021
  • Brady passed for 250+ yds in 14/19 games (10/19 over 300yds)
  • 2022 QBs vs GB: Cousins (277:2) // Fields (70:0:1, 20:1)
  • GB has allowed the 5th fewest completed air yds
  • GB allowed the 9th fewest yds in 2021, while Brady led the NFL in passing yds
  • Tampa Brady vs GB: 166:2:0 // 280:3:3
  • #1 WR Evans is suspended this week

TB WRs:

  • WRs with tg for TB in 2022: Evans (11) // Gage (8) // Perriman (8) // Miller (8) // Julio (5) // Godwin (3)
  • WRs vs GB: Jefferson (9:184:2), Thielen (3:36) // E St. Brown (2:39)
  • GB allowed a middle of the pack 35.9 WR DK pts/g in 2021
  • 2021 GB allowed the 9th fewest WR rec on the 9th most WR tg faced
  • TB WRs vs GB with Brady: Evans (1:10 / 3:51:1) // Godwin (5:48 / 5:110) // Miller (2:36:1)
  • Evans is suspended, Godwin & Julio DNP on Wed, and Gage, Miller, & Perriman all LP on Wed

Leonard Fournette:

  • Fournette also had a LP due to his ongoing hamstring injury
  • Fournette’s 2021 season::
  • 15+ touches in 13/15 g // 6 g of 60+ rush yds (5 of 80+)
  • 3+ rec in 14/15 g // 5+ rec in 8/15 g // 40+ rec yds in 7 g
  • Fournette in 2022: 21:127, 2:10 // 24:65, 2:9
  • RBs vs GB: MIN (28:126, 4:24) // CHI (19:160, 3:17)
  • Fournette vs GB in 2020’s playoffs: 12:55:1, 5:19
  • In the first Tampa Brady-GB matchup, RoJo ran for 23:113:2 (+Vaughn’s 5:42)

Aaron Rodgers:

  • 2021 TB faced the most pass att/g, allowing 12/19 QBs to throw for 250+
  • 2022 TB has already faced 42 & 40 pass att, but held DAL & NOR QBs to 198 & 236 pass yds with 4 INT
  • TB stud DL Akiem Hicks is out for several weeks and top CB Carlton Davis is Q
  • TB is facing the 2nd highest def aDOT and has the 3rd most pressures per PFR
  • Rodgers vs Bowles Bucs: 160:0:2 // 296:2:0, rush TD
  • Rodgers 2022 without Davante Adams: 195:0:1 // 234:2:0
  • Rodgers has thrown 34 & 25 pass att so far (averaged 33.2 in 2021)

GB WRs:

  • Davante totaled 15:127:1 in the two games vs TB
  • Lazard missed the reg season matchup but had 4:96:1 in the playoff game
  • Lazard in W2 debut: 2:13:1
  • 5 GB WRs caught between 2-3 passes in W2 vs CHI
  • Watkins is the highest scorer for GB so far with just 12.3 DK pts in W2
  • 2021 TB allowed 18 WRs of 60+ yds; 6 WRs of 100+ yds
  • 2021 TB allowed the 4th most WR rec and the 11th most WR yds on the 3rd most WR tg
  • 2022 WRs vs TB: Lamb (2:29), Brown (5:68) // Olave (5:80), Thomas (6:65:1)

Robert Tonyan:

  • With Bowles, TB has allowed DK pts/g to TEs of 14.2, 14.0, & 12.6
  • TEs with 40+ yds vs 2021 TB: Schultz (45) // Pitts (73, 48) // Higbee (40:1, 51) // Gesicki (43) // Kmet (43) // Doyle (81:1) // Knox (60:1) // Goedert (92)
  • 2022 TEs vs TB: Schultz (7:62) // Johnson (4:40)
  • Tonyan leads the GB TE room with 5:47 through two games
  • Tonyan had 3 of 8 games in 2021 of 40+ yds (52:1, 63:1, 49)

GB RBs:

  • Tracking the Bowles TB rush def::
  • TB allowed the fewest RB rush yds in each of the last three seasons under Bowles
  • In 16 games in 2019, Gurley & AK were the only RBs to break 20 DK pts vs TB, and they combined for 17 rec in those 2 games
  • In 20 games in 2020, Kamara, CMC, & Cook were the only RBs to break 20 DK pts vs TB, and AK & CMC both needed 2 TDs to get there
  • In 19 games in 2021, Patterson, Gaskin, Herbert, & Gibson were the only RBs to break 20 DK pts vs TB, and the first 3 combined for 20 rec while Gibson scored 2 TDs
  • Top RBs vs 2022 TB: Elliott (10:52) // Ingram (10:60)
  • TB allowed the 2nd most RB rec in 2021 after allowing the most in 2020 (5th most RB rec yds allowed 2021)
  • 2022 TB has allowed just 8 rec for 28 yds
  • GB touches::
  • Rush att: Jones (5 / 15) // Dillon (10 / 18)
  • Targets: Jones (5 / 3) // Dillon (6 / 3)
  • Total yds: Jones (76 / 170:2) // Dillon (91:1 / 67)
  • GB RBs vs TB (touches:yds): Jones (15:41:1 / 12:34) // Dillon (5:31 / 4:30)

Kickoff Sunday, Sep 25th 8:20pm Eastern

49ers (
23.25) at

Broncos (
21.75)

Over/Under 45.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
49ers Run D
1st DVOA/7th Yards allowed per carry
Broncos Run O
26th DVOA/13th Yards per carry
49ers Pass D
4th DVOA/6th Yards allowed per pass
Broncos Pass O
17th DVOA/19th Yards per pass
Broncos Run D
20th DVOA/15th Yards allowed per carry
49ers Run O
24th DVOA/7th Yards per carry
Broncos Pass D
6th DVOA/8th Yards allowed per pass
49ers Pass O
16th DVOA/12th Yards per pass

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Sunday night football brings us two teams that have underachieved to start the season as the 49ers visit the Broncos in a game sporting a 44-point total with San Francisco favored by 1.5. The 49ers opened the season being embarrassed by the Bears before beating Seattle but losing their starting quarterback, while the Broncos lost to the Seahawks and then barely beat the lowly Texans (scoring 32 total offensive points across their two games). Since the Seahawks beat the Broncos and lost to the 49ers, then clearly, the 49ers will beat the Broncos here, right? If only football were that easy.

San Francisco

In the run game, the 49ers turned to Jeff Wilson as their lead back after losing Elijah Mitchell to injury in Week 1. Wilson only played 49% of the snaps but saw 20 total opportunities and played well, rushing for 4.7 yards per carry and catching both of his targets. He was vultured at the goal line by Kyle Jusczyk once, and then the 49ers tried to let him get vultured again later in the game in another goal-line series that ended with Jimmy Garoppolo running it in. Poor Wilson saw multiple red zone touches but not a single goal-line attempt out of five total plays within the five-yard line (casual count here, I could be off, but it was several!). Tyrion (A+ name) Davis-Price played 39% of the snaps and handled 14 carries, so while Wilson did see a solid workload, San Francisco also ran 70 plays. A safer projection for Wilson is probably in the 16-18 touch range. TDP is out this week and the 49ers have signed and elevated Marlon Mack from the practice squad. Oh, and Deebo Samuel is going to steal some carries, but last week’s goal-line vulture aside, the SF running back situation now doesn’t have to worry as much about a running QB stealing their work. I’m not sure how this plays out. My guess is that Jordan Mason is the RB2 since Mack is still brand new to the team, but Mason was an undrafted rookie so maybe San Francisco prefers Mack’s experience with the NFL overall over Mason’s experience with their offensive system. There’s some volatility here. If you believe Wilson is safe for 16-18 touches with upside for more (which I do), he’s underpriced at $8k for that workload even in a tough matchup. One important note: George Kittle is expected to return this week. I’m sticking this note in the running game section because Kittle is incredibly important to the 49ers rushing attack – he’s one of the best blockers in the NFL at any position and San Francisco has averaged 4.4 yards per carry with Kittle vs. 4.1 without. 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

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In the passing game, it’s going to be primarily Deebo, Kittle, and Brandon Aiyuk, giving the 49ers one of the most dynamic receiving corps in the league with tremendous YAC ability. Deebo is the highest-ceiling play in this game, of course, and his rushing work boosts his floor, and there’s really nothing I can say against him other than “he’s expensive, will be highly owned, and football is a volatile game.” He’s a great play. Of the other two, I prefer Kittle – he has games where he disappears because he’s busy blocking and not catching passes, but he also has 30+ ceilings in his range of outcomes while Aiyuk has not even sniffed that mark yet in his career. (Aiyuk’s best game was Week 14 of 2020 with 24.9 Draftkings points). At a similar price, and I expect pretty similar ownership, I want more exposure to Kittle. Past this, it’s a mess. Jauan Jennings is the primary slot receiver but has only played about half the snaps so far this season, and if anything, I expect that to go down with Kittle’s return as the 49ers should use more heavy formations to support their run game. Ray-Ray McCloud should mix in a bit as well and can be considered an MME punt option. At tight end, Tyler Kroft is out, leaving Kittle, Charlie Woerner, and Ross Dwelley. Woerner is a blocker and not fantasy relevant except in the deepest MME pools, while Dwelley is priced up for a role without Kroft and is too expensive now that Kittle is back. He’s a “pay up to be contrarian and hope he catches another 38-yard touchdown like he did last week” play. Fullback Kyle Juszczyk generally gets a couple of opportunities per game and is probably the best punt option on San Francisco (outside of Jennings, who isn’t quite in punt territory). To sum this all up, the main San Francisco offense is very condensed but the backup/punt play pool is deep. 

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Overview

  • Game has a total of 44.5
  • SF is favored by -1.5 after opening around -2.5
  • DEN has had 6 trips to the red zone & scored TDs on zero of them
  • SF is 3 for 8 in red zone TD %
  • SF ranks 4th in defensive dvoa, DEN ranks 5th

Jimmy Garoppolo

  • Jimmy last week in 3 quarters: 13:21:154:1 TD // 16.7 DK pts
  • He scored at least 3x salary in 6 out of 17 games 
  • Jimmy scored 20+ DK pts in 2 games & 30+ in one other
  • The only games he was cheaper than $5.5k were in the playoffs last season
  • DEN to Qbs: (Mills 19:38:177 yds) // (Smith 23:28:195:2 TDs)

SF RBs

  • It’s been two games & the 49ers have lost two RBs (both out several weeks)
  • Elijah Mitchell (MCL sprain) + Tyrion Davis-Price (3rd rd rookie) (high ankle sprain)
  • Other healthy RBs: (Jordan Mason udfa, $4k) // (Marlon Mack, activated from practice squad, $4k)
  • Last weeks rushing: Wilson 18:84 // Price 14:33 // Deebo 4:53 
  • Wilson: 4 of 10 starts with over 20 rush attempts // 3 of 10 starts with 100+ rush yds 
  • DEN D rush yds allowed: 80 // 76
  • They rank 5th in rush yds allowed (78.0/g)
  • SF ranks 4th in rush yds  (182.5/g)
  • They have the 2nd highest rush rate in the league at 60%

SF WRs

  • Tgt counts: Aiyuk 8, 3 // Deebo 6, 7 // Jennings 2, 6 
  • Deebo: 8 games without 10+ tgts // 7 games without 100+ receiving yds // 13 games without scoring 4x (DK price was $7.4k) // 5 games without scoring 3x
  • Deebo’s snaps: wide 66% // slot 17% // backfield 17%
  • He’s averaging 8.8 yds/carry this season (4th highest)

George Kittle

  • Number of games missed each season: (2018-0) // (2019-2) // (2020-8) // (2021-3) // (this season-2)
  • Kittle yds/catch 2018 to 2021: 15.6-12.4-13.2-12.8
  • In 17 games played last season (including playoffs), Kittle had three above 20 DK pts: 24.1 (4.6x) // 42.6 (7.2x) // 37.1 (5.4x)
  • DEN allowed to TEs: (Kmet 0:0 yds) // (Fant 3:16 yds)

Russell Wilson

  • Wilsons played the 49ers 20 times and has a 16-4 record
  • Averages: 19:29:209:1.8 TDs:.5 INTS // 19.0 DK pts
  • His price & DK pts: (Wk2 $7.2k, 12.0) // (Wk1 $6.9, 20.7)
  • Wilsons 42 pass attempts WK1 were higher than any game last season
  • He had 340 yds but the Seattle offense only scored 1 TD
  • SF allowed to QBs: (Fields 8:17:121 yds:2 TDs, 14.6 DK pts) // (Smith 24:30:197:1 INT, )

DEN WRs

  • Jeudy played only 10 snaps before getting injured last week, questionable this week
  • He saw 3 targets in those 10 snaps (7 last week)
  • Sutton saw 11 last week, good for a 40% tgt share 
  • He owns a 27% target share through 2 games
  • SF allowed to WRs (Metcalf 4:35-6 tgts) // (Lockett 9:107-11 tgts) // (Dante Pettis 1:51:1TD) // (Mooney 1:8) 
  • SF has allowed 143.0 pass/g (1st)

DEN RBs

  • Carries: (Williams 15, 7) // (Gordon 10, 12)
  • Targets: (Williams 4, 12) // (Gordon 1, 2) 
  • Williams has a 23% target share
  • DEN ranks 10th in rush yds (126.0/g) & 7th in yds/carry (4.9)
  • SF’s D has allowed rushing totals of 36 yds (SEA) & 99 yds (CHI) 
  • They’ve allowed only 67.5 yds/g (2nd) & 2.6 yds/carry (1st)

DEN TEs

  • After seeing 6 tgts Wk1, Albert O. saw only 2 last week
  • His snap %: (Wk2 53%) // (Wk1 67%)
  • He’s ran a route on 59 plays & pass blocked on just 5 of those
  • SF allowed to TEs: (Fant 2:11 yds) // (Kole Kmet 0:0 yds)

Kickoff Monday, Sep 26th 8:15pm Eastern

Cowboys (
18.75) at

Giants (
19.75)

Over/Under 38.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Cowboys Run D
25th DVOA/16th Yards allowed per carry
Giants Run O
7th DVOA/24th Yards per carry
Cowboys Pass D
5th DVOA/20th Yards allowed per pass
Giants Pass O
19th DVOA/31st Yards per pass
Giants Run D
21st DVOA/25th Yards allowed per carry
Cowboys Run O
12th DVOA/9th Yards per carry
Giants Pass D
23rd DVOA/15th Yards allowed per pass
Cowboys Pass O
13th DVOA/2nd Yards per pass

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Week 3 closes out with the Cowboys visiting the Giants in another island game Showdown special with a sub-40 point total (39.5, to be precise). The Giants are favored by one point in this game that nobody except local fans would watch if it weren’t for single-game DFS. 

New York

We’ll start with the Giants, where a resurgent Saquon Barkley is the clear centerpiece of their offense. Saquon has played 84% of the offensive snaps so far (absolutely elite) and has 25 running back opportunities per game so far (also elite) with 11 targets (yep, elite). Dude’s a monster. He should be the highest-owned captain and the highest-owned overall player. The only case we can make against him is that “football is a high-variance sport.” If you do want to bet against Saquon, one path to him failing is an early injury, in which case Matt Breida has been operating as his backup. Otherwise, Breida is just a desperation play with six carries and one target in two games. 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

In the passing game, Kadarius Toney is doubtful and I’m assuming he’s out, which is very fantasy relevant as his snap count jumped from 12% in Week 1 to 38% in Week 2. And he was $3k. Alas. Wan’Dale Robinson is also out and Kenny Golladay appears to be in the doghouse, leaving Sterling Shepard, David Sills, and Richie James as the primary wideouts. Recognize here that Golladay could come OUT of the doghouse at any time – they did give him a big contract, after all. But, absent anything weird, we should expect these three guys to be the main guys. Shep is actually good, and at $7,600 is underpriced for a WR1 role, even with Daniel Jones as his QB. Richie James is also good, and I am personally not worried by his low snap count in Week 2 as that was primarily driven by Toney going up, and now Toney’s hurt. David Sills is kind of just a guy but he’ll be on the field a ton. I rank them Shep, James, Sills in terms of who I want the most exposure to. At tight end, there’s a 3-way rotation with Daniel Bellinger, Tanner Hudson, and Chris Myrarick, with Bellinger leading in snaps but Hudson leading in routes and targets. Hudson is also just $1,600, and I very much prefer him to Bellinger. 

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Daniel Jones:

  • NYG have just 40 pts through two weeks vs TEN & CAR
  • DAL has allowed just 36 pts through two weeks vs TB & CIN
  • 2021 DAL allowed 24 TDs to 26 INT
  • 2022 QBs vs DAL: Brady (212:1:1) // Burrow (199:1)
  • DAL has the 3rd most sacks through 2 weeks (8)
  • Jones has been sacked 8 times already himself
  • Jones in 2022: 188:2:1 // 176:1
  • Jones 12 games with Pat Shurmur: 24 TDs to 12 INT
  • Jones 24 games with Jason Garrett: 21 TDs to 17 INT
  • Jones 2 games with Brian Daboll: 3 TDs to 1 INT
  • Jones didn’t play a full game vs DAL in 2021

NYG WRs:

  • Targets: Shepard (4, 10) // James (6, 6) // Sills (0, 4)
  • Production: Shep (71:1 / 34) // James (59 / 51) // Sills (0 // 37)
  • WRs vs DAL: Evans (71:1), Julio (69) // Higgins (71:1), Chase (54)
  • Richie James has 79 of hs 110 yds in the middle of the field between 0-20 yds
  • James has been in the slot for 60 of his 84 snaps
  • Shepard has been in the slot for 43 of his 107 snaps
  • DAL has faced 41 WR tg through two weeks

Saquon Barkley:

  • RBs vs DAL: Fournette: (127, 10) // Mixon (57, 26)
  • Saquon in 2022: (164, 30) // (72, 16)
  • Saquon has 7 & 4 tg through two weeks in 2022
  • Saquon full game vs DAL in 2021: (15:50, 4:24)
  • Saquon total yds vs DAL in career: 102 // 142 // 139 // 95 // 74
  • NYG are a 1-pt home favorite

Cooper Rush:

  • QBs vs NYG: Tannehill (266:2) // Mayfield (145:1)
  • Rush’s two starts since 2021: 325:2:1 // 235:1
  • He’s thrown 40 & 31 att in his two starts
  • NYG have faced the 8th highest def aDOT through two games
  • Rush’s 7.9 aDOT falls around the middle of 2022 QBs

DAL WRs:

  • Targets in Rush starts: Cooper (13 / -) // Lamb (8 / 11) // Brown (2 / 5) // Schultz (7 / 4)
  • Leading WRs in Rush starts: Cooper (122:1) // Lamb (112 / 75) // Brown (91:1)
  • 20 WRs had 60+ yds vs NYG in 2021
  • 2021 NYG allowed 18 WR TDs
  • 2022 WRs vs NYG: Phillips (66), Burks (55) // DJ Moore (43:1), Anderson (32)

DAL RBs:

  • DAL RBs rushing in Rush starts: Elliott (16:50, 15:53) // Pollard (7:26, 9:43:1)
  • DAL RBs receiving in Rush starts: Elliott (4:23, 1:-4) // Pollard (1:1, 4:55)
  • NYG ranked dead last in def rush DVOA in 2021
  • 2022 RBs rushing vs NYG: Henry (21:82) // CMC (15:102)
  • 7 RBs had 30+ rec yds vs NYG in 2021 (4 of 60+)
  • 2022 RBs receiving vs NYG: Hilliard (3:61:1) // CMC (4:26)
  • Rush threw to RBs 9 times in W2