Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- Two teams at the opposite end of the spectrum in how they approach games.
- Las Vegas plays at a moderate pace (top 10 in both first-half pace of play and situation-neutral pace of play) with elevated pass rates (70.94% overall pass rate and sixth-highest pass rate over expectation).
- Tennessee plays at a snail’s pace (28th-ranked first-half pace of play and 26th-ranked situation-neutral pace of play) with elevated rush rates (low 53.10% overall pass rate and fifth-lowest pass rate over expectation).
- The game environment here has many paths toward a messy environment and very few paths towards something noteworthy for fantasy.
How las vegas Will Try To Win ::
The Raiders have been forced into pass-heavy game plans of the quick-hitting variety, primarily due to the shortcomings of their offensive line (PFF’s second-worst unit to start the year – highlighted by Carr’s 2.44 second time to throw in 2022 compared to 2.72, 2.77, and 2.75 seconds over the previous three seasons). Their offense is primarily based out of 11-personnel, with sparse usage of 21- and 12-personnel. Starting slot wide receiver, Hunter Renfrow left Week 2’s overtime loss with a concussion sustained on the final play of the game and is currently in the league’s concussion protocol, which could alter the game plan for the Raiders should he miss. That said, Renfrow’s absence would likelier influence team target market shares as opposed to changing their game plan entirely.
Josh Jacobs maintains his position as the lead back in a role that historically affords more pass game usage than he is currently seeing to start the year. Jacobs ran 15 routes in Week 1 and 20 routes in Week 2, seeing only one target in each week. Jacobs’ career yards per route run ranks in the top six at the position since 2015. All of that to say, there is room for his pass game involvement to increase, particularly if Hunter Renfrow misses Week 3. Furthermore, Jacobs’ involvement increased in Week 2 when Brandon Bolden was forced to miss, increasing his snap rate from 60% to 72% (borderline elite). Expect fullback Jakob Johnson and change of pace/third down back Ameer Abdullah to mix in sparingly. The pure rushing matchup is far from ideal, yielding a paltry 4.175 net-adjusted line yards metric behind PFF’s 31st-ranked offensive line. Finally, the absence of Harold Landry is a big hit to the Titans’ defensive front against the run.
Shane Bowen and the Titans have transformed their defense over the previous two seasons, investing heavy draft capital in the secondary and attacking the pass rush heavily through free agency. Bowen’s unit employs heavy blitz packages and subsequent Cover-1 utilization, meaning Raiders pass-catchers should find themselves in man coverage a good percentage of the time this week. Enter Davante Adams, who holds the best rating against man coverage of all wide receivers since he entered the league in 2014. By all accounts, this is a get-right spot for Adams after being blanketed in Week 2. The heavy 11-personnel rate from the Las Vegas offense has meant Mack Hollins and Hunter Renfrow have been responsible for elevated snap counts of their own alongside Adams, with the only other wide receiver to see a single offensive snap this season being Tyron Johnson with a whopping three offensive snaps. Should Renfrow fail to gain clearance from his concussion, expect Keelan Cole to step into Renfrow’s slot role. Furthering our discussion of personnel that crush man coverage, Darren Waller ranked first in the league amongst tight ends against primary man coverage schemes in 2020 before struggling through multiple injuries in 2021.
How tennessee Will Try To Win ::
While we typically like to target Derrick Henry at low ownership, this is not an ideal spot for him this week. The loss of Taylor Lewan is a massive hit to the Titans, and the Raiders have largely cracked down on the power run game to date. It’s Henry, and he always has a path to 35+ rush attempt games, so take your exposure if you want. For me, and for small field single entry and three-max contests, he will not sniff my late week condensed player pool.
On a slate with so much aerial upside, Ryan Tannehill makes absolutely zero sense. As we’ve explored this season, pay-down quarterbacks are basically betting on every pay-up quarterback failing to put the slate out of reach and the pay-down option matching them in production. That is a highly unlikely scenario for Tannehill this week.
Davante Adams should have a very nice game this week against a mix of man coverage looks – the only issue is whether or not he has a path to the “put the slate out of reach” realm, which is a little more unlikely than the other high-priced wide receivers in his range this week. Very safe floor, less chance at ceiling.
That leads to Treylon Burks, who we are all dying to see in a more featured role on the Titans offense. Realize the floor is almost nonexistent, but the ceiling is tantalizing.
- I agree with JM in that this game environment is highly unlikely to pop on a week like this, meaning any exposure here will be limited to one-offs for me, personally.
- Davante Adams is at the top of the list from a range of outcomes perspective but would need extreme efficiency to provide an outlier score.
- Treylon Burks is the type of player that we’re just waiting to an expanded role with, meaning he’s a player I want to be early on rather than late.
- I will likely not be going to either Ryan Tannehill or Josh Jacobs behind shaky offensive lines.
By LexMiraglia10 >>
- QBs vs LV: Herbert (279:3) // Kyler (277:1:1, 28:1)
- Tannehill got pulled in 3rd Q of W2 with TEN down 41-7 after his pick-6
- Tannehill went from 266:2 vs NYG to 117:0:2 vs BUF
- Since 2020, the game scores of his 10 games of 20+ DK pts read: 46-25, 42-36, 35-41, 42-16, 41-38, 33-30, 30-24, 25-16, 27-3, 34-31, 28-25
- That’s 8/11 games in which TEN scored 30+ pts, and 6/11 games in which the combined total finished over 60
- TEN’s rank in pass att with Vrabel: 31 // 31 // 30 // 25
- Tannehill has thrown 33 & 20 passes in 2022
- Tannehill has passed for 300 yds in just 5 of his 37 starts since 2020
- Targets: Woods (2, 5) // Burks (5, 6) // Phillips (9, 1) // NWI (2, 3)
- Production: Woods (13 // 39) // Burks (55 // 47) // Phillips (66 // 5)
- WRs vs LV: Keenan (66), Carter (64:1), Williams (10) // Brown (68), Dortch (55:1)
- All four are priced between $4k to $5k on DK
- Burks routes/dropback 13/35 and 17/28
- Henry rush att pre-injury in 2021: 17 // 35 // 28 // 33 // 29 // 20 // 29 // 28
- Henry rush att in 2022: 21 // 13
- Henry production: 82 // 25:1
- RBs vs LV: Ekeler (36, 36) // Conner (25, 26), Williams (59, 3), Benjamin (31, 20)
- LV ranked 9th in def rush DVOA in 2021
- Henry vs LV: 10:45 (2016) // 6:25 (2017) // 18:103:2 (2019)
- 10/18 QBs vs 2021 TEN scored 2+ TDs
- 10/18 QBs passed for 290+ yds vs 2021 TEN (6 of 300+)
- QBs vs 2022 TEN: Jones (188:2:1) // Allen (317:4)
- Carr in 2022: 295:2:3 // 252:2
- Carr scored 20+ DK pts in 6 g in 2021 (just 3 of 25+, high of 28)
- Carr has scored 20+ DK pts just once in the last 13 games
- Carr has 37 & 39 att in first two games of 2022
- 2021 TEN allowed 20 WR TDs
- 2021 TEN allowed the 2nd most WR rec & WR yds on the most WR tg faced
- TEN allowed the 2nd most WR DK pts/g in both 2020 & 2021
- 11 WRs vs 2021 TEN scored 20+ DK pts: Hopkins (26.3), Kirk (24) // Lockett (34.8), Swain (21) // Davis (24.1) // Diggs (23.9), Beasley (21.8) // Pittman (30.6) // Kupp (20.5) // Bourne (23.1) // Deebo (31.1) // Amendola (33.3)
- WRs vs 2022 TEN: Shepard (71:1), James (59) // Diggs (148:3)
- Targets: Adams (17, 7) // Renfrow (6, 10) // Hollins (1, 8)
- RZ tg: Adams (3, 2) // Renfrow (0, 2)
- Production: Adams (141:1, 12:1) // Renfrow (21, 59) // Hollins (16, 66)
- Targets: 6, 8
- RZ tg: 1, 2
- Production: 79 // 50:1
- TEN allowed the 5th fewest DK pts/g to TEs in 2021
- 2022 TEs vs TEN: Myarick (1:1:1) // Knox (4:41)
- 2021 TEN allowed the fewest RB DK pts/g (18.6) and 2nd fewest RB rush yds
- 2021 TEN allowed just 9 RB rush TDs, 1 RB rec TD
- 2022 RBs vs TEN: Saquon (164:1, 6:30) // Cook (53), Singletary (19, 2)
- Touches: Jacobs (10, 1 // 19, 1) // Abdullah (0, 1 // 0, 1)
- Production: Jacobs (57, 16 // 69, 12) // Abdullah (0 // 23)
- Jacobs has just two games of 20+ DK pts since start of 2021, and in one he caught 9 passes
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