Kickoff Sunday, Sep 25th 1:00pm Eastern

Bills (
29.25) at

Dolphins (
25.25)

Over/Under 54.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Bills Run D
5th DVOA/13th Yards allowed per carry
Dolphins Run O
15th DVOA/30th Yards per carry
Bills Pass D
2nd DVOA/1st Yards allowed per pass
Dolphins Pass O
3rd DVOA/17th Yards per pass
Dolphins Run D
7th DVOA/14th Yards allowed per carry
Bills Run O
32nd DVOA/6th Yards per carry
Dolphins Pass D
29th DVOA/16th Yards allowed per pass
Bills Pass O
5th DVOA/9th Yards per pass

GAME OVERVIEW ::

By Hilow >>
  • Buffalo ranks first in pass rate over expectation while Miami ranks third in pass rate over expectation through two weeks.
  • McDaniel is going to have to get creative if he wants to move the ball effectively against Buffalo’s deep and athletic front six, against a secondary that utilizes “light” nickel packages and heightened zone concepts.
  • The state of Miami’s offensive line opens up paths to this game environment failing, and I don’t know how many analysts will be open about that possibility with this game.
  • Primary Bills pass-catchers set up well to wreak havoc on Miami’s “light”/nickel base defense.

How Buffalo Will Try To Win ::

We know Buffalo is going to pass the ball and we know Stefon Diggs and Josh Allen are the players the offense is built around, but we’re still waiting on the expected status of wide receiver Gabriel Davis to have a clear picture on the total picture for the Bills. Should Davis miss, we’re likeliest to see Jake Kumerow directly fill in on the perimeter (as he did on Monday night at 2% ownership with everyone gravitating to the two slot receivers – I digress, and am possibly still a bit salty), meaning Isaiah McKenzie and Jamison Crowder are likely to continue to sap each other’s snap rate and usage, opening up further room for Stefon Diggs to be the ultimate feature piece. Should Davis return from his ankle injury, we could see him split time with Kumerow on the perimeter or we could see him step back into an every-down role. Keep an eye on this situation as the week progresses and be ready for any leverage that might open up late in the week through the uncertainty.

“Lead back” Devin Singletary has played snap counts of 59% and 54% over the first two weeks of the season, seeing running back opportunity totals of 10 and nine. Fullback Reggie Gilliam has played the second most snaps at the position, ahead of both Zack Moss and rookie James Cook, but is typically utilized sparsely in the game plan. The reality of the matter is the player with the greatest rushing upside is their quarterback, Josh Allen, who has 11 carries for 66 yards and a score on the ground so far after posting a robust 122/763/6 line on the ground in 2021. The pure rushing matchup yields a well below average 3.99 net-adjusted line yards metric against a Miami team allowing just 3.06 running back yards per carry to start the year.

Stefon Diggs. He’s that dude. For real, though. Diggs currently holds top-20 marks against man coverage (per PFF) and the top overall marks against zone coverage (per PFF) of all pass-catchers on the season. His 270 receiving yards ranks second in the league (behind Tyreek Hill) and his four receiving scores lead the league. The emergence of Gabriel Davis has given the Bills a steady presence at the WR2 position instead of the rotation the team ran last year. His return would likely mean a slightly decreased reliance on Diggs, who was the target for 15 of Josh Allen’s 38 pass attempts on Monday. That said, the increased usage of “light” and nickel packages utilized by the Dolphins plays perfectly into the skillset of the All-World zone-beater, Stefon Diggs. As discussed above, expect Isaiah McKenzie and Jamison Crowder to continue sharing slot snaps regardless of the game day status of Gabe Davis. Finally, Dawson Knox has evolved into a near every-down, complete tight end over the course of the previous year. Expect him to approach a 90% snap rate in competitive games for the rest of the season. The matchup sets up well over the middle for Knox to find some real estate to work. 

How mIAMI Will Try To Win ::

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By Alex88 >>

OVERVIEW

  • Highest game total of Week 3 (moved up three full points since opening)
  • BUF’s implied total of 29.75 is tied for first with MIN
  • MIA’s 24.25 is ranked eighth highest
  • Each team ranks among the six slowest teams in seconds per play (per TeamRankings.com)
  • Per numberFire, BUF ranks 15th in adjusted seconds per play and MIA ranks 32nd
  • BUF’s 36 ppg reigns supreme
  • MIA’s 31 ppg is tied for fourth
  • BUF’s point differential of +55 is more than double the second place team

Josh Allen

  • Second in PFF passing grade
  • The BUF offensive line ranks 24th per PFF
  • Allen ($8,200 Week 3 DK salary) has averaged 33.1 DK ppg so far
  • His game lines: Week 1 @ LAR 26/31:297:3:2 & 10:56:1 & Week 2 vs. TEN 26/38:317:4 & 1:10
  • Per 4for4’s Player Stat Explorer, Allen ranks first in Pass EPA/play, 4th in Completion Percentage Over Expected, third in adjusted YPA, & first in air yard completion %
  • The MIA secondary is ranked fourth by PFF
  • His $8,200 salary is tied for a career high
  • He’s scored 32 DK pts two out of the three times his salary has been this high
  • MIA ranks 31st in DK ppg allowed to QBs
  • Notable opposing QB scores since 2021: Josh Allen 29.46 // Tom Brady 40.74 // Lamar Jackson 48.62

BUF Passing Attack

  • Snap share: Dawson Knox 77.2% // Stefon Diggs 65.4% // Jake Kumerow 52.8% // Gabe Davis 45.7% // Isaiah McKenzie 44.9%
  • Target share: Diggs 32.4% // Knox 9.9% // McKenzie 8.5% // Jamison Crowder 8% // Gabe Davis 7%
  • Targets: Diggs 23 // Knox 7 // McKenzie 6 // Crowder 6 // Davis 5
  • Diggs ($7,700) ranks fifth in target share, tied for first in end zone target share, seventh in air yard share, third in WOPR, second in yards per route run, & fourth in targets per route run
  • His 38.5 DK ppg ranks first
  • He ranks first in PFF receiving grade
  • Last season he had a low 62.3% catch percentage
  • Through two games, he’s at 87% (per Lineups.com)
  • He’s scored 4x his Week 3 DK salary six times in three seasons as a Bill
  • Davis’s Week 1 line @ LAR: 4/5:88:1
  • He’s scored 20+ DK pts three times since December 2021
  • McKenzie ($4,700) has scored 30+ DK pts twice but has otherwise not hit 12
  • MIA ranks 22nd in DK ppg allowed to WRs
  • Notable opposing WR scores since 2021: Marvin Jones 26 // Mike Evans 32.3 // Elijah Moore 32.6 // Antonio Brown 34.4
  • Knox’s ($4,100) game logs: 1/2:5 // 4/5:41
  • He’s scored 4x his Week 3 DK salary five times in his past 21 games (including three 20+ efforts)
  • MIA ranks 31st in DK ppg allowed to TEs
  • Notable opposing TE scores since 2021: Mark Andrews 18.3 // Mo Alie-Cox 19.2 // Kyle Pitts 26.3 // Andrews 28.7

BUF Rushing Attack

  • Snap share: Devin Singletary 56.7% // Zack Moss 27.6% // James Cook 16.5%
  • Target share: Moss 9.9% // Singletary 8.5% // Cook 1.4%
  • Targets: Moss 7 // Singletary 6 // Cook 1
  • Attempts: Singletary 14 // Cook 12 // Moss 9
  • Redzone touches: Cook 2 // Josh Allen 2 // Singletary 2 // Moss 1
  • Singletary ($5,600) ranks seventh in rush yards over expectation per carry
  • PFF ranks him 33rd in rushing grade
  • His game logs: 8:48 & 2/2:14 // 6:19 & 2/4:2
  • He’s scored 4x his Week 3 DK salary three times at the end of last season
  • Moss ($4,800) has scored 4x his Week 3 DK salary twice
  • The majority of Cook’s snaps came in Week 2 with the second unit
  • MIA ranks first in DK ppg allowed to RBs
  • Just five RBs have scored 20+ DK pts vs. MIA since 2021 (none have hit 30)

Tua Tagovailoa

  • Tied for seventh in PFF passing grade behind the 25th ranked offensive line
  • Tua ($6,100) ranks fifth in Pass EPA/play, seventh in CPOE, fourth in adj. YPA, sixth in air yards completion %, & second in on-target % (per 4for4)
  • His game logs: Week 1 vs. NE 23/33:270:1 // Week 2 @ BAL 36/50:469:6:2
  • His Week 3 salary is a career high
  • He’s scored 4x his salary four times in 23 career games: 25.36 // 28.54 // 31.04 // 43.86
  • BUF’s secondary is ranked second by PFF
  • BUF ranks first in DK ppg allowed to QBs
  • Notable opposing QB scores since 2021: Cam Newton 24.34 // Tom Brady 33.12 // Patrick Mahomes 43.02

MIA Passing Attack

  • Snap share: Jaylen Waddle 74% // Tyreek Hill 71.8% // Durham Smythe 55.7% // Mike Gesicki 52.7%
  • Target share: Hill 30.1% // Waddle 28.9% // Gesicki 6%
  • Targets: Hill 25 // Waddle 24 // Gesicki 5
  • Hill ($7,600) ranks eighth in target share, 11th in air yard share, eighth in WOPR, third in YPRR, & sixth in TPRR (per 4for4)
  • His game logs: 8/12:94 // 11/13:190:2
  • He ranks fifth in PFF receiving grade
  • He’s scored 4x his Week 3 DK salary 13 times since the 2018 season (including seven 40+ scores)
  • Waddle ($6,800) ranks 13th in target share, 19th in air yard share, 14th in WOPR, sixth in YPRR, & 12th in TPRR
  • His game logs: 4/5:69:1 // 11/19:171:2
  • He ranks 13th in PFF grade
  • His Week 3 salary is a career high
  • He’s scored 4x that salary three times in 18 games
  • BUF ranks 11th in DK ppg allowed to WRs
  • Notable opposing WR scores since 2021: Kendrick Bourne 28.1 // Tyreek Hill 34.8 // Cooper Kupp 34.8
  • Gesicki ($4,300) ranks tied for 12th in end zone share
  • His game logs: 1/1:1 // 4/4:41:1
  • He’s scored 15+ DK pts four times in his last 17 games (including two 20+ efforts)
  • BUF ranks ninth in DK ppg allowed to TEs
  • Notable opposing TE scores since 2021: Travis Kelce 17.7 // Kelce 23.6

MIA Rushing Attack

  • Snap share: Chase Edmonds 56.5% // Raheem Mostert 48.9%
  • Target share: Edmonds 8.4% // Mostert 4.8%
  • Targets: Edmonds 7 // Mostert 4
  • Attempts: Edmonds 17 // Mostert 16
  • Redzone touches: Tua Tagovailoa 2 // Edmonds 1 // Mostert 1
  • Edmonds ($5,100) game logs: 12:25 & 4/4:40 // 5:33 & 1/3:8
  • Edmonds is 40th in PFF rushing grade
  • He’s scored 20+ DK pts three times out of 31 games in the last three seasons
  • Mostert ($4,500) ranks sixth in broken tackle %
  • He’s 26th in PFF rushing grade
  • His game logs: 5:16 & 1/1:16 // 11:51 & 3/3:28
  • He’s scored 20+ DK pts once since the 2020 season (out of 11 games)
  • BUF ranks fifth in DK ppg allowed to RBs
  • Notable opposing RB scores since 2021: Leonard Fournette 26.2 // Damien Harris 31.3 // Derrick Henry 38.6 // Jonathan Taylor 56.4