Kickoff Sunday, Sep 25th 4:25pm Eastern

Falcons (
21.25) at

Hawks (
22.25)

Over/Under 43.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Falcons Run D
27th DVOA/27th Yards allowed per carry
Seahawks Run O
22nd DVOA/11th Yards per carry
Falcons Pass D
24th DVOA/18th Yards allowed per pass
Seahawks Pass O
11th DVOA/23rd Yards per pass
Seahawks Run D
21st DVOA/17th Yards allowed per carry
Falcons Run O
8th DVOA/31st Yards per carry
Seahawks Pass D
31st DVOA/31st Yards allowed per pass
Falcons Pass O
9th DVOA/16th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>
  • Both teams have run-based identities but playmakers who are capable of breaking things open.
  • Seattle is showing signs they may be considering opening things up, but Atlanta will need to be pushed.
  • Pace of play is slow on both sides, meaning even if there are some big plays, we are unlikely to see a true shootout situation.
  • Atlanta could be a poor showing or two away from turning to Desmond Ridder at QB.

How Atlanta Will Try To Win ::

The Falcons rank bottom-10 in the league in pass rate over expectation as well as situation-neutral pace of play. After blowing a big 4th quarter lead against the Saints in Week 1, the Falcons struggled mightily to move the ball for most of the game against the stout run defense of the Rams, which neutralized the Falcons preferred method of attack. Despite possessing two young, dynamic talents in their receiving corps in Kyle Pitts and Drake London, the Falcons insist on trying to pound the ball on the ground behind PFF’s 28th graded run blocking offensive line. They now face a Seahawks run defense that ranks 3rd in rush defense DVOA by Football Outsiders despite facing two solid rushing offenses in the Broncos and 49ers.

It is unlikely that the Falcons open things up or speed things up on the road in Seattle, as we saw in Week 1 on Monday night when the Broncos could barely get plays off due to crowd noise issues. If the Falcons were not aggressive throwing against the Rams, they certainly won’t open things up of their own volition against the Seahawks despite the tough matchup. We should expect more of the same from Atlanta, with Cordarrelle Patterson and rookie running back Tyler Allgeier splitting carries, and Marcus Mariota mixing in some designed runs as well as scrambles. When the Falcons do take to the air, they are likely to rely heavily on stud rookie Drake London (19 targets through two games) and tight end Kyle Pitts, as the Seahawks Cover-3 scheme is vulnerable to tight ends in the middle of the field and gave up a lot of production to the Broncos tight ends in Week 1 before giving up a 38-yard touchdown to 49ers tight end Ross Dwelley in Week 2.

How seattle Will Try To Win ::

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By LexMiraglia10 >>

Geno Smith:

  • 10/17 QBs topped 225 pass yds vs ATL in 2021, but just 5 surpassed 275 and only 1 reached 300 yds
  • Geno is completing 81% of his passes, but has yet to top 200 yds on his 29 att/g
  • Geno’s 5 starts since 2021 (DK pts): 11.3 // 11.9 // 22.6 // 17.2 // 7.1
  • QBs vs ATL: Winston (269:2) // Stafford (272:3)

SEA WRs:

  • 2021 ATL allowed the 5th most WR rec & the 6th most WR DK pts/g
  • ATL has already allowed four 50+ yd WRs and 5 WR TDs, including Landry (7:114), Thomas (5:57:2), Kupp (11:108:2), ARob (4:53:1)
  • SEA tg: Lockett (3 // 11) // Metcalf (7 // 6)
  • DK pts: Lockett (5.8 // 22.7) // Metcalf (10.6 // 7.5)
  • Sub-10 yd tg: Lockett (8) // Metcalf (9)
  • 10+ yd tg: Lockett (6) // Metcalf (4)
  • ATL has faced the 12th shortest aDOT through two weeks vs NOR & LAR

Noah Fant:

  • Fant has just 4 & 2 tg, one more than Dissly (3 & 2)
  • Fant has totaled 27 yds through two weeks
  • TEs with 40+ yds vs ATL in 2021: Goedert (42:1) // Gronk (40:2; 58:2) // Gesicki (85:1) // Trautman (47) // Kittle (93)
  • 2022 TEs vs ATL: Johnson (43) // Higbee (71)

Rashad Penny:

  • None of the NOR & LAR RBs have topped 50 rush yds yet vs ATL
  • Penny has 85 yds on just 18 att through two weeks
  • Scores of Penny’s big games to close 2021: 33-13 // 24-25 // 51-29 // 38-30
  • SEA’s 2022 scores: 17-16 // 7-27
  • Lead RB in Geno’s 2021 games: Collins (20:101:1) // Collins (16:35) // Collins (10:44)

Marcus Mariota:

  • Mariota’s games since 2019::
  • Passing: (226:1:1 // 215:0 // 196:2:2); Rushing (88:1 // 72:1 // 16)
  • 2021 SEA allowed the 9th fewest QB rush yds
  • 2022 QBs vs SEA are currently averaging 7.9 yds/att and the 8th fewest completed air yds
  • Mariota is the 19th most expensive QB of the W3 starting QBs on the slate

Drake London:

  • London has 7 tg short of 10 yds and 11 tg over 10 yds
  • London has 160 yds of Mariota’s 411 pass yds (38.9%)
  • WRs vs SEA: Jeudy (102:1), Sutton (72) // Aiyuk (63), Deebo (63, 53)
  • SEA has allowed the most YAC in the league through 2 weeks
  • London has 59 of his 160 yds after the catch
  • London has 2 RZ tg

Kyle Pitts:

  • SEA allowed the 8th highest TE DK pts/g in 2021
  • Pitts has 7 & 3 tg in 2022
  • Pitts has just 2 rec for 19 yds in both games so far
  • Delanie Walker had 800+ yds in all 3 of his seasons with Mariota in TEN
  • Darren Waller, went for 9:150:1 on 12 tg in the 2020 Mariota LV game

Cordarelle Patterson:

  • CPatt volume: (22 att, 5 tg) // (10 att, 1 tg)
  • CPatt production: Rush (120 // 41) // Rec (16 // 0)
  • CPatt has 3 RZ touches in each game
  • RBs vs SEA (total yds): Javonte (108), Gordon (72) // Wilson (103), Davis-Price (33)
  • Both Javonte & Gordon fumbled at the GL vs SEA