Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- The Falcons remain one of the healthier teams in the league as they prepare for Week 4, with only OT Kaleb McGary listed on the first report of the week as a ‘DNP’ with a knee injury.
- Saints RB Alvin Kamara popped on the team’s injury report Wednesday as a non-participant with hip and rib injuries.
- This game is likely to come down to Atlanta’s ability to erase explosive plays through the air against a Saints team that has dominated in that area through three weeks.
- Saints TE Taysom Hill returned to a full practice Wednesday and should return to the active game-day roster in Week 4.
How new orleans Will Try To Win ::
I can feel the fantasy overreaction to the Saints 15-12 loss to the Eagles building. Even beyond that, for as good as this Saints offense has looked through three weeks, their defense has arguably looked even better. The Saints are playing relentless football on the defensive side of the ball, ranking fifth in points allowed per game (14.7) and sacks (11), third in red zone touchdown rate allowed (25%), and second in forced fumbles (four) and interceptions (five). You can see the aggression from this unit on each play, sometimes to a fault (what happened to DeVonta Smith in Week 3 should not be celebrated). On the offensive side of the ball, the team’s shortcomings in Week 3 can almost entirely be attributed to routinely facing third-and-long situations, something they had largely avoided the first two weeks of the season. Even then, Rashid Shaheed had two deep passes hit him in the hands for would-be touchdowns against the Eagles, both of which would have drastically altered the trajectory of that game. The tape still looked good and the offensive structure still looked elite, it was a simple case of Vic Fangio forcing third and long situations through scheme. The Falcons are slightly more face-up in their coverage and alignment tendencies, ranking fourth in the league in Cover-3 rate (43.0%) and sixth in the league in single-high alignments (60.7%), and this Saints team has dominated single-high looks this season (both deep passes to Shaheed in Week 3 came against Cover-3).
Alvin Kamara has returned to touch-under-workhorse usage for the Saints this season, with a 70.5% snap rate (13th), 72.0% opportunity share (10th), and robust 20.3 carries and 3.7 targets per game marks. He has also seen 13 red zone opportunities, which ranks fourth in the league. That makes his presence on the team’s injury report to start the week something worth our attention after the veteran back popped on the team’s injury report Wednesday as a non-participant with hip and rib injuries. The Falcons have held opposing offenses to 4.1 yards per carry while playing the Steelers, Eagles, and Chiefs, a nod to their athletic interior of their 3-4 base defense. The only other backs on the roster are veteran Jamaal Williams and 2023 undrafted free agent Jordan Mims, so keep an eye on both Kamara’s practice involvement the remainder of the week and the team’s transaction wire to gauge Kamara’s chances of suiting up against the Falcons.
The bread and butter of Klint Kubiak’s offense thus far has been a lethal passing attack, built to leverage an above average run game via pre-snap motion and play action. Most of those tendencies are rooted in the desire to manipulate the middle of the field against single-high alignments, something that could crack the defensive tendencies of the Falcons at some point in this spot. The Falcons utilize elevated rates of Cover-3 and patient and athletic linebackers to force teams underneath, which has largely been effective to this point in the season. That said, they have yet to face an offense as intricate and dynamic as the Saints, primarily considering New Orleans ability to manipulate the middle of the field and their successes against single-high to this point. Both Rashid Shaheed and Chris Olave have destroyed both single-high and Cover-3 thus far, with Shaheed putting up 0.80 FP/RR and 0.55 FP/RR against Cover-3 and single-high, respectively, and Olave putting up 0.65 FP/RR and 0.58 FP/RR against Cover-3 and single-high, respectively.
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