Kickoff Sunday, Sep 29th 1:00pm Eastern

Rams (
18.75) at

Bears (
21.75)

Over/Under 40.5

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Notes

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>
  • Bears RT Darnell Wright is set to miss practice Wednesday while WR Keenan Allen is set to return to a limited session following two missed games with a heel injury. 
  • The Rams are about as beat up as any team in the league, with WR Puka Nacua on injured reserve, Cooper Kupp out and unable to be placed on injured reserve because the team had already designated eight players to return (the max per team per season), and they are dealing with four key offensive line injuries.
  • That said, Los Angeles actually sets up well on paper to dictate the game environment here considering the struggles of Shane Waldron and his personnel against zone, and McVay’s ability to design a fluid and unpredictable run game.
  • Look for McVay to attempt to shorten this game as he fights through a ridiculous number of injuries.
  • Scoring is likely to be at a premium considering the Bears defensive prowess and their offensive ineptitude.

How los Angeles Will Try To Win ::

Man, I whiffed on the “putting myself in Sean McVay’s shoes” in Week 3. He did not approach that game as I thought he would. To be fair, his team clawed back from an early deficit to steal a victory away from the beaten-up 49ers on the back of three touchdowns from running back Kyren Williams. Instead of playing Jordan Whittington, the remaining player with a skillset closest to Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp, in a featured role, McVay turned to Tutu Atwell for a heavy snap rate and rotated Whittington with Tyler Johnson, the latter of whom had run the Nacua-light role in Week 2. McVay went 12-personnel-heavy (45%) and focused his game plan around Williams, trying to shorten the game. The truth is, it worked (and made me look silly in the process). Week 4 presents a far different situation for McVay and the Rams, moving from an opponent he knew would likely fare well on the scoreboard to an opponent with a strength on the defensive side of the ball and an extreme weakness on offense. Considering the Bears are near league-average in yards allowed per carry at 4.5 and are near the top of the league in pass yards allowed per game at 165.0, it stands to reason that McVay will once again prioritize the ground game behind elevated 12-personnel rates.

Kyren Williams is one of three, maybe four, true workhorse running backs in the league currently, leading the league in snap rate (88.2%) and red zone touches (23 – that’s a massive number through three games played) while ranking fifth in opportunity share (83.1%) and seeing 21.3 opportunities per game, instantly reminding us last week what a robust workload and extreme red zone role can buy you in fantasy football. Even so, Kyren’s five forced missed tackles and 2.13 yards after contact on 54 carries are far from inspiring. One thing McVay is always going to do well is keep the defense guessing at two blocking schematics, as evidenced by Kyren’s beautiful blocking concepts split of 23 zone and 29 man/gap attempts. Finally, Kyren has a season-long carry of just 13 yards and zero breakaway runs, something volume and scoring are going to have to overcome for fantasy viability. Rookie Blake Corum has been active in all three games but has gone two full games without seeing an offensive snap, playing just eight offensive snaps in Week 2. Ronnie Rivers has seen just 16 offensive snaps through three weeks. This is a true workhorse situation in Los Angeles.

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As discussed above, I completely whiffed on this Rams team in Week 3. Why wouldn’t McVay focus the game plan on his best remaining skill position player in Kyren? I never even considered that a potential outcome and I feel like I owe an apology. So, I’m sorry, y’all. In any case, the Rams are left with career journeyman Demarcus Robinson, career special teams player Tutu Atwell, career depth piece Tyler Johnson, rookie sixth-round wide receiver Jordan Whittington, and Colby Parkinson as their primary pass-catching options with Nacua and Kupp out. There’s truly nothing in there to inspire confidence as a group, and the Rams now get a matchup against a Bears team that is playing out of their minds on defense. Seriously, this team has allowed only five drives of 60 or more yards all season. While that includes games against the Titans and Colts, they also allowed only one drive of 60 or more yards against the Texans. In other words, the Bears have been elite at generating disruption as they force opposing teams to march the field. That largely places the clamps on this passing game in Week 4.

How Chicago Will Try To Win ::

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