XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT
The second of the Monday games looks way more interesting with a 46.5 total and the Lions favored by 3.5. Side note: on the 2-game slate, everyone is going to build around this game with just one or two plays from TEN/MIA game so a very simple way to be different would be to just use three or more plays from TEN/MIA. Anyhow, the Seahawks are off to the races this year with a 3-0 start and a +30 point differential (best in the NFL), while the Lions are a solid 2-1 having dropped a game to the Bucs.
Detroit
We’ll start with the home Lions. As we know, they run a split backfield with both David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs getting healthy amounts of work. So far Gibbs has played 54% of the snaps to Monty’s 44%, though Gibbs has 53 opportunities (40 carries, 13 targets) to Monty’s 59 (51 carries, 8 targets). Monty is the grinder while Gibbs is better in the receiving game and has more big play upside, but it’s closer between them than I thought it would be leading into the season, especially in targets. I wonder if the emergence of Jameson Williams as a capable receiver has impacted Gibbs’ targets . . . maybe? It’s hard to say, it’s still early. The Seahawks defense has looked quite good to start the season but of course, they’ve only played the Broncos, Patriots, and Dolphins, and the Lions are a far different test so I don’t think we should put much weight at all into Seattle’s early defensive statistics. Their prices have crept closer together and I view them as pretty interchangeable, really. If Seattle jumps out to a lead, I would want Gibbs, while Monty has an edge in builds where Detroit wins, but it’s very close between them. Gun to my head here, I’ll lean a little Monty’s way because Detroit is a home favorite and he’s $1k cheaper.
Showdown Ownership Projections!
Ownership updates automatically
In the passing game, Jameson’s emergence has created some difficulties in evaluating the Lions, because they just have so many weapons. Kind of like the 49ers, really. Obviously, Amon-Ra St. Brown is the big dog here with 33 targets on 106 Jared Goff dropbacks. He’s always a strong play, though just keep in mind he’s not really a deep ball guy and thus he’s going to need volume to really smash (his best game of the year so far was against Tampa and it took 19 targets). Jameson Williams is really coming on in his second true year with 24 targets and 230 total yards, including one carry per game. Jamo has more big play upside, and at $6,800 he could pay off his salary without a ton of volume if he catches a long one. He’s one of my favorite Lions when we consider price. At WR3, Kalif Raymond appears to be getting phased out by former Bronco Tim Patrick, who played 50% of the snaps last week to Raymond’s 7%. The Lions run 12 personnel a lot so around 50-60% is where the WR3 role will top out and given how many other strong weapons they have, it’s unlikely that Patrick will ever get more than a couple of targets except in outlier scenarios. He’s a tourney punt play.
At tight end, the Lions have Sam LaPorta and Brock Wright splitting time. LaPorta missed a bit of time last week with an ankle injury but recovered quickly and doesn’t carry an injury designation. The problem is that he’s only seen 10 targets on the season. Rough for the guy who was being drafted as the overall TE1! Williams is clearly impacting LaPorta’s role, but I expect over the season things will swing back to some sort of equilibrium. I do prefer Williams here but if LaPorta looks like he’s going to come at a material ownership discount (quite likely as they’re priced $400 apart), LaPorta sure makes for an awesome tournament play for anyone bold enough to take the plunge. Wright is mostly a blocker but can be used as a punt option by virtue of how much he’s on the field.
The Lions are a really tough team to evaluate overall with two good running backs and three strong pass catchers, it’s just tough to figure out where the ball is going. Amon-Ra is obviously awesome but expensive, and otherwise, I will probably let ownership dictate my path. I do really like Williams and I like Montgomery in “Lions win” builds but if Gibbs/LaPorta look likely to be lower owned, I don’t mind switching it up. It’s a long season and we shouldn’t put too much weight on three weeks of data. Over the course of the year, I expect all of these guys to be involved.
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