XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Week 4 begins with the Cowboys at the Giants. We have a 44 total game with Dallas favored by 4.5. We’ve seen these teams for three weeks now and the question is, do we know who they are? How sticky is what we’ve seen from them, and how much is just early season variance? The Cowboys were supposed to have a good defense, yet they’ve allowed 29.7 offensive points per game, third most in the league. The Giants were not expected to be very good (sorry fans) but have fallen below even those low expectations, scoring just 15 points per game. What’s real? We don’t really know, but let’s see what we think is likely.

New York

We’ll start with the Giants. Devin Singletary has been capably holding down the lead-back role so far, playing just over 70% of the snaps with backup Tyrone Tracy taking the rest. Singletary has 42 carries and 10 targets on the season, so he isn’t in the kind of bell cow role we love to see, but 17.3 opportunities per game ain’t shabby and it represents 80% of New York’s running back touches. Tyrone Tracy has seen 13 opportunities of his own. The matchup in the early going looks awesome with Dallas allowing a whopping 186 rushing yards per game (most in the NFL), but just keep in mind they’ve faced teams like Baltimore and New Orleans, with great rushing attacks, whereas New York has the 24th-ranked offensive line. This is a spot where it’s tough to figure out what to trust. Do we trust that Dallas has been crushed on the ground so far? Or, do we trust that Dallas has a well-ranked defensive line while New York’s O line ranks so low? I don’t know the answer to that. My guess is the Dallas defense is better than they’ve played so far, but I could be wrong (note that defensive stats are VERY un-sticky year over year, so the fact that Dallas’ D was so good last year does not really mean they’ll be good this year). As such, this is a spot where I think I’ll let ownership as well as the game scenario I’m building for dictate my approach. If it looks like people are flocking to Singletary, I’m fine taking an underweight position, but if people are saying “Eww, Giants are bad” and avoiding, I’m happy to play more. 

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The Giants passing game is mostly a debacle with Daniel Jones at the helm . . . except that Jones has thrown 4 touchdowns to 0 interceptions the last two games, and while they got to face Washington’s excuse for a defense, they also faced Cleveland. Jones struggled in Week 1 against the Vikings, but we’ve seen the 49ers and Texans passing attacks also struggle against Minnesota, so I’m willing to give him a pass there. Does that mean I think the Giants passing attack is great? Hardly, but I think they might be a bit better than people are giving them credit for. Of course, a lot of that has to do with rookie Malik Nabers, who has 205 receiving yards in the last two weeks with 3 of 4 Jones touchdowns. Nabers has caught just under 50% of Jones’ passing yards in those games and 75% of his touchdowns while seeing an insane 30 targets out of 62 dropbacks. How’s that for a concentration of offense? The Giants are going to keep throwing to Nabers until teams show they can guard him, but with an offense that doesn’t have a lot of other talent, I expect we’ll start seeing teams just double-team Nabers consistently in the very near future. It’s really hard not to love Nabers as this kind of target share is unheard of, and while I doubt he’ll end the season near the 50% mark, he’s very clearly the #1 guy and he’s going to have a very healthy workload all year. Behind Nabers are Darius Slayton and Wan’dale Robinson with Jalin Hyatt playing a small WR4 role. Slayton got a little banged up but was tagged as limited on Monday so I expect he’s likely to play, but if he misses, that means more work for Hyatt, and then one of Bryce Ford-Wheaton or Ihmir Smith-Marsette would fill in the WR4 role. With Nabers feasting there isn’t a lot of room for other receivers. Slayton has 10 targets on the season for 66 scoreless yards. We’ve seen upside from him before, but as long as Nabers is hanging around it’s hard to view him as anything more than a punt play. Wan’dale, though, looks interesting to me. He’s just $4,800 and has averaged 8 targets per game so far – they’re mostly short targets, but especially on DK he can rack up PPR points quickly. His ceiling is somewhat limited if he doesn’t score a touchdown but he really shouldn’t be priced in between the kickers, he should be somewhere in the $6k range – he’s a solid value option. Tight end is led by Theo Johnson who has 7 targets on the year. Whee. Chris Manhertz and Daniel Bellinger are backing him up – all three of the New York tight ends are just MME punt options. 

Dallas

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• The Falcons remain one of the healthier teams in the league as they prepare for Week 4, with only OT Kaleb McGary listed on the first report of the week as a ‘DNP’ with a knee injury.
• Saints RB Alvin Kamara popped on the team’s injury report Wednesday as a non-participant with hip and rib injuries.
• This game is likely to come down to Atlanta’s ability to erase explosive plays through the air against a Saints team that has dominated in that area through three weeks.
• Saints TE Taysom Hill returned to a full practice Wednesday and should return to the active game-day roster in Week 4.

How new orleans Will Try To Win ::

I can feel the fantasy overreaction to the Saints 15-12 loss to the Eagles building. Even beyond that, for as good as this Saints offense has looked through three weeks, their defense has arguably looked even better. The Saints are playing relentless football on the defensive side of the ball, ranking fifth in points allowed per game (14.7) and sacks (11), third in red zone touchdown rate allowed (25%), and second in forced fumbles (four) and interceptions (five). You can see the aggression from this unit on each play, sometimes to a fault (what happened to DeVonta Smith in Week 3 should not be celebrated). On the offensive side of the ball, the team’s shortcomings in Week 3 can almost entirely be attributed to routinely facing third-and-long situations, something they had largely avoided the first two weeks of the season. Even then, Rashid Shaheed had two deep passes hit him in the hands for would-be touchdowns against the Eagles, both of which would have drastically altered the trajectory of that game. The tape still looked good and the offensive structure still looked elite, it was a simple case of Vic Fangio forcing third and long situations through scheme. The Falcons are slightly more face-up in their coverage and alignment tendencies, ranking fourth in the league in Cover-3 rate (43.0%) and sixth in the league in single-high alignments (60.7%), and this Saints team has dominated single-high looks this season (both deep passes to Shaheed in Week 3 came against Cover-3).

Alvin Kamara has returned to touch-under-workhorse usage for the Saints this season, with a 70.5% snap rate (13^th), 72.0% opportunity share (10^th), and robust 20.3 carries and 3.7 targets per game marks. He has also seen 13 red zone opportunities, which ranks fourth in the league. That makes his presence on the team’s injury report to start the week something worth our attention after the veteran back popped on the team’s injury report Wednesday as a non-participant with hip and rib injuries. The Falcons have held opposing offenses to 4.1 yards per carry while playing the Steelers, Eagles, and Chiefs, a nod to their athletic interior of their 3-4 base defense. The only other backs on the roster are veteran Jamaal Williams and 2023 undrafted free agent Jordan Mims, so keep an eye on both Kamara’s practice involvement the remainder of the week and the team’s transaction wire to gauge Kamara’s chances of suiting up against the Falcons.

The bread and butter of Klint Kubiak’s offense thus far has been a lethal passing attack, built to leverage an above average run game via pre-snap motion and play action. Most of those tendencies are rooted in the desire to manipulate the middle of the field against single-high alignments, something that could crack the defensive tendencies of the Falcons at some point in this spot. The Falcons utilize elevated rates of Cover-3 and patient and athletic linebackers to force teams underneath, which has largely been effective to this point in the season. That said, they have yet to face an offense as intricate and dynamic as the Saints, primarily considering New Orleans ability to manipulate the middle of the field and their successes against single-high to this point. Both Rashid Shaheed and Chris Olave have destroyed both single-high and Cover-3 thus far, with Shaheed putting up 0.80 FP/RR and 0.55 FP/RR against Cover-3 and single-high, respectively, and Olave putting up 0.65 FP/RR and 0.58 FP/RR against Cover-3 and single-high, respectively.

How atlanta Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• Panthers WR Adam Thielen hit injured reserve with a hamstring injury.
• Diontae Johnson and Chuba Hubbard combined for 40 opportunities in Week 3 against the Raiders.
• The Bengals rank second in pass rate over expectation (PROE), behind only the new-look Seattle Seahawks, and 26^th in average time of possession (28:06).
• Cincinnati held a walkthrough Wednesday, but all of Sheldon Rankins (hamstring), B.J. Hill (hamstring), and Trey Hendrickson (illness) were estimated as ‘DNP,’ potentially paving the way for the Bengals to be without three starting defensive linemen against the Panthers.
• Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase was estimated as a limited participant on the team’s initial injury report with a shoulder issue.
• Panthers NT Shy Tuttle (foot) missed practice Wednesday after missing the team’s Week 3 win over the Raiders.
• Panthers QB Andy Dalton starts against his former team in the Bengals – narrative alert.
• The Panthers rank dead last in the league in points allowed per game (31.7) while the Bengals rank 26^th (26.7).

How cincinnati Will Try To Win ::

Zac Taylor’s offense is predictable and unimaginative, something we’re not used to saying about the Gary Kubiak-Sean McVay coaching tree. Player roles are simply so straightforward that the offense is easier to game plan against. For example, Ja’Marr Chase held a 6.0-yard aDOT during the first two weeks of the season with Tee Higgins out of action. Then, in Week 3, that jumped to 13.3. Chase operates as the prototypical Z receiver in this offense, while Higgins handles prototypical X duties and Andrei Iosivas handles Y duties. It’s the same thing on repeat, over and over again. The only change compared to what we have seen in previous seasons is the insertion of Iosivas in the role left behind by the departing Tyler Boyd. Taylor does try to insert unique elements into the offense like bunch formations, pre-snap motion, and play action, but the route structures behind those elements typically fall flat in taking advantage of what those looks are designed to exploit in an opposing defense.

Taylor loves his trips formations. There were three plays against the Commanders last week that utilized a trips right alignment (three wide receivers in a bunch formation on the right side). That look is designed to generate missed assignments through layered routes and unpredictability. And yet, the play structure was completely uninspiring. On the first, Chase runs a go, Higgins a slant, and Iosivas a chip-to-flat. The play was designed to take a shot downfield but Burrow was forced to check it down to Iosivas as the outlet. It was face up because there wasn’t any safety manipulation or influence from the design of the play for the first read – it was just, hey, go run fast downfield and if you outrun the dude, we’ll hit you. But that’s exactly what this offense has been for the previous three seasons, heavily reliant on the talent of its playmakers as opposed to actively placing them in the best places and opportunities to succeed. The second instance was trips right with Higgins island left. Iosivas runs an inside dig from slot right, tight end Mike Gesicki runs a five-yard out from wide right, and Chase runs a deep post from tight right. The play was designed to hit Higgins on a slant from wide left as the first read, which was there. But the slant brought him right into the waiting arms of the linebacker, who made the tackle after a nine-yard gain. Nothing in the play structure to manipulate the middle of the field. The third instance came from trips right once again, with Gesicki aligned wide left with a safety in coverage. Chase runs a five-yard comeback from slot right, Higgins a 10-yard out from wide right, and Iosivas a corner from slot right. Commanders safety Jeremy Chinn immediately diagnosed the play and had time to make it to the sideline to break up the pass to Gesicki down the left sideline. Again, nothing in the play structure to manipulate the middle of the field.

A fourth trips formation of the first half was run from trips left, with Chase and Higgins slot left and Gesicki wide left. Chase runs a five-yard comeback, Higgins a 10-yard in, and Gesicki a 15-yard in. All three routes were stacked in alignment on the left side of the formation. Again, nothing to manipulate the middle of the field. The final instance of trips in the first half came just before halftime in the two-minute drill, with Iosivas, Chase, and Gesicki in trips right. Gesicki runs a five-yard flat, Iosivas a 10-yard seam, and Chase runs the weirdest route I’ve ever seen him run. Yes, it involved literal skipping on a seven-yard comeback. It went about as well as you’d think, with five defensive backs staring right at Chase at the time of throw.

I spent so much time on the Bengals and their poor play structure to hammer it into our brains that this team is entirely reliant on its talent winning and doing very little to manipulate opposing defenses. As we’ve seen in the past, that can lead to blow-up games from this unit because Burrow is a top-five or top-six NFL quarterback, Chase is a top-five wide receiver, and Higgins is one of the better WR2s in the league. But man, we need more, Taylor.

Zack Moss has played 65% or more of the offensive snaps in each game this season, seeing a robust 74.0% total snap share and 68.8% opportunity share. He’s also averaging 17.7 routes per game, which ranks seventh in the league at the position. That said, this offense ranks second in the league in PROE, leading to just 11.0 carries per game for Moss. In total, the Bengals backfield has returned one game of 18+ running back opportunities, which came in Week 3 against the Commanders when Moss saw 12 carries and six targets. Remember, 16 running backs saw 18 or more opportunities in Week 1, 19 in Week 2, and nine running backs saw 22 or more opportunities in each of the first two weeks of the season.

In other words, this backfield is severely lagging behind the recent macro trends found in the league, which seems to be the case over the previous three seasons as well. Chase Brown is clearly the more explosive back, but he routinely misses holes, outruns his blockers into primary holes, and has poor patience. With great coaching, this kid could turn into one of the most dynamic backs in the league. The problem is that is not his current situation in Cincinnati. Of note here, Panthers NT Tuttle missed Week 3 and was a ‘DNP’ in practice Wednesday, boosting the micro rushing matchup for the Bengals.

We covered much of the passing expectations from the Bengals in the exploration above. Suffice to say, Chase is an elite talent and can win in almost any setup, but he and Burrow are going to have to do it mostly on their own because Taylor is doing them no favors.

How carolina Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• Bears RT Darnell Wright is set to miss practice Wednesday while WR Keenan Allen is set to return to a limited session following two missed games with a heel injury. 
• The Rams are about as beat up as any team in the league, with WR Puka Nacua on injured reserve, Cooper Kupp out and unable to be placed on injured reserve because the team had already designated eight players to return (the max per team per season), and they are dealing with four key offensive line injuries.
• That said, Los Angeles actually sets up well on paper to dictate the game environment here considering the struggles of Shane Waldron and his personnel against zone, and McVay’s ability to design a fluid and unpredictable run game.
• Look for McVay to attempt to shorten this game as he fights through a ridiculous number of injuries.
• Scoring is likely to be at a premium considering the Bears defensive prowess and their offensive ineptitude.

How los Angeles Will Try To Win ::

Man, I whiffed on the “putting myself in Sean McVay’s shoes” in Week 3. He did not approach that game as I thought he would. To be fair, his team clawed back from an early deficit to steal a victory away from the beaten-up 49ers on the back of three touchdowns from running back Kyren Williams. Instead of playing Jordan Whittington, the remaining player with a skillset closest to Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp, in a featured role, McVay turned to Tutu Atwell for a heavy snap rate and rotated Whittington with Tyler Johnson, the latter of whom had run the Nacua-light role in Week 2. McVay went 12-personnel-heavy (45%) and focused his game plan around Williams, trying to shorten the game. The truth is, it worked (and made me look silly in the process). Week 4 presents a far different situation for McVay and the Rams, moving from an opponent he knew would likely fare well on the scoreboard to an opponent with a strength on the defensive side of the ball and an extreme weakness on offense. Considering the Bears are near league-average in yards allowed per carry at 4.5 and are near the top of the league in pass yards allowed per game at 165.0, it stands to reason that McVay will once again prioritize the ground game behind elevated 12-personnel rates.

Kyren Williams is one of three, maybe four, true workhorse running backs in the league currently, leading the league in snap rate (88.2%) and red zone touches (23 – that’s a massive number through three games played) while ranking fifth in opportunity share (83.1%) and seeing 21.3 opportunities per game, instantly reminding us last week what a robust workload and extreme red zone role can buy you in fantasy football. Even so, Kyren’s five forced missed tackles and 2.13 yards after contact on 54 carries are far from inspiring. One thing McVay is always going to do well is keep the defense guessing at two blocking schematics, as evidenced by Kyren’s beautiful blocking concepts split of 23 zone and 29 man/gap attempts. Finally, Kyren has a season-long carry of just 13 yards and zero breakaway runs, something volume and scoring are going to have to overcome for fantasy viability. Rookie Blake Corum has been active in all three games but has gone two full games without seeing an offensive snap, playing just eight offensive snaps in Week 2. Ronnie Rivers has seen just 16 offensive snaps through three weeks. This is a true workhorse situation in Los Angeles.

As discussed above, I completely whiffed on this Rams team in Week 3. Why wouldn’t McVay focus the game plan on his best remaining skill position player in Kyren? I never even considered that a potential outcome and I feel like I owe an apology. So, I’m sorry, y’all. In any case, the Rams are left with career journeyman Demarcus Robinson, career special teams player Tutu Atwell, career depth piece Tyler Johnson, rookie sixth-round wide receiver Jordan Whittington, and Colby Parkinson as their primary pass-catching options with Nacua and Kupp out. There’s truly nothing in there to inspire confidence as a group, and the Rams now get a matchup against a Bears team that is playing out of their minds on defense. Seriously, this team has allowed only five drives of 60 or more yards all season. While that includes games against the Titans and Colts, they also allowed only one drive of 60 or more yards against the Texans. In other words, the Bears have been elite at generating disruption as they force opposing teams to march the field. That largely places the clamps on this passing game in Week 4.

How Chicago Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• The return of running back Aaron Jones to Green Bay after he attempted a Lambeau leap on the road in Week 1 against the Giants following his first touchdown of the season. Some habits appear difficult to shed.
• Packers QB Jordan Love has gotten in two limited sessions to start Week 4 preparation, with head coach Matt LaFleur telling the media, “we’ll give him up to game time” after practice Thursday.
• Vikings QB Sam Darnold (knee) and WR Jordan Addison (ankle) were limited to start the week on Wednesday – both appear on track to play in Week 4.
• From a macro matchup perspective, this is going to be a really fun game to watch as the chess match unfolds between two madmen (LaFleur versus Flores).

How Minnesota Will Try To Win ::

The Vikings have done an amazing job at controlling time of possession, limiting scoring in the red zone on defense, creating disruption on defense, and sustaining drives on offense through three weeks. And they’ve done it without arguably the top tight end in the game at present in T.J. Hockenson, and without their secondary pass-catching option in second-year wide receiver Jordan Addison. Sure, having the best wide receiver on the planet helps in that endeavor, but this team is winning through coaching right now, on both sides of the ball. The unpredictable yet aggressive nature of Brian Flores’ defense is a marvel to watch on game day as he plays grown-man chess games with opposing offenses. Kevin O’Connell continues to call an offense designed to place his primary players in the best position to succeed, doing so this year with a largely unproven quarterback in Sam Darnold. On that note, Darnold ranks 13^th in the league in passing yardage through three weeks, with an accompanying 7.6 average intended air yards, 4.4% completion rate over expectation, 8.42 yards per attempt, has taken just eight sacks, all the while facing pressure at the seventh highest rate in the league (pressure on 41.6% of dropbacks). What he has done through three weeks is a marvel, by all statistical measures.

The ground game sees the return of Aaron Jones to Lambeau, where he played the first seven years of his NFL career. It was funny to me, as a Packers fan, watching Jones try and execute a Lambeau leap on his first touchdown as a Viking on the road against the Giants in Week 1 – we’ll see if he has the opportunity to do so this week and how it will be received. The Green Bay run defense remains a relative liability, ceding 4.7 yards per carry through three weeks after allowing 4.5 yards per carry a season ago. Jones has been utilized in a “lead back” role, seeing 59.9% of the offensive snaps and 65.9% of the team opportunities. Even so, 4.7 targets per game to go with 14 carries per game leaves Jones with a seventh-ranked average weighted opportunity mark (because targets are worth 2.55 times more than a carry in PPR formats, on average). Ty Chandler is the clear change of pace back and is trusted in key situations after spending the previous two seasons with this coaching staff in Minnesota, meaning he could snipe some touchdowns away from Jones this season.

Justin Jefferson is the most talented wide receiver in the game currently, there is no debating that. What’s most impressive about this offense through three weeks is that they haven’t yet been put in a situation where they’ve even had to force-feed Jefferson in blanket coverage, with Jefferson owning 30.0% team target share but a rather pedestrian-for-him 26.3% targets per route run rate. Jalen Nailor stepped into a near every down role with Addison out of commission the previous two games, likely retreating to a rotational piece with the latter’s return. The tight end situation has been a smattering of mediocrity split between Johnny Mundt and Josh Oliver through three weeks, although former Packer Robert Tonyan returned to the active lineup in Week 3 (played only three offensive snaps). Expect this team to continue winning through scheme and coaching until Addison gets fully healthy and tight end T.J. Hockenson returns from injured reserve. Schematically speaking, O’Connell does a masterful job at keeping reads simple for Darnold through layered routes that function to generate space for the first read, but Darnold has been adept at getting through his progressions this season, as evidenced by a 61.5% first-read target rate (39^th in the league – for comparison, Malik Willis leads the league at 85.3%).

How green bay Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By HILOW >>

• This game environment shapes up to be one of the more exciting games on the slate (and potentially on the season).
• Texans WR Tank Dell (ribs) is reportedly likely to miss Week 4.
• The Jaguars lead the league in man coverage rate at a ridiculous 61.4%, 13.5% higher than the second-place Broncos.
• C.J. Stroud and Nico Collins have absolutely destroyed man coverage over the previous season-plus.
• Somewhat more quietly, Christian Kirk appears primed to erupt in this spot (more on this below).
• Jaguars TE Evan Engram missed practice again on Wednesday and appears headed for another absence with a hamstring injury sustained in pregame warmups in Week 2.
• Both Joe Mixon and Dameon Pierce missed practice Wednesday and each appears likely to be headed for another missed game in Week 4, setting the stage for another week of Cam Akers as the lead back.

How JACKSONVILLE Will Try To Win ::

Jacksonville has to try to win instead of being so damn reactive. Honestly, that’s one of their primary dysfunctions through three weeks. Yes, Trevor Lawrence has not looked good, routinely missing receivers in all areas of the field, but his head coach and offensive play-caller needs to do this man some favors. In the post-game press conference after the team’s 0-3 start, Doug Pederson insisted that things had to change. While many thought he was alluding to a potential quarterback change, it’s much more likely that he intends to alter the focus of the offense after Lawrence has the second-deepest average intended air yards (10.5, behind only Anthony Richardson), low 52.8% completion rate (fourth worst in the league), and ridiculous 9.0% drop rate (third worst in the league, not his fault).

Against the inside-out, zone-heavy Texans defense under head coach DeMeco Ryans, I look for the Jaguars to transition to a more fluid pass offense predicated on shorter-area throws so they refrain from getting behind the sticks so often. Continuing that point, the Jaguars have one of the higher first-down rush rates in the league, which is contributing to the frequency at which they face long down-and-distance situations behind an offensive line that is struggling to generate yards before contact. These thoughts all fall under the assumption of rational coaching, which may or may not come to fruition here, introducing a rather wide range of potential outcomes when it comes to how Jacksonville will try to win this game.

On the ground, Tank Bigsby has been the far more efficient back compared to Travis Etienne, amassing six forced missed tackles and 4.21 yards after contact per attempt on 14 carries, compared to the five forced missed tackles and 2.61 yards after contact of Etienne. But beyond that, the Jaguars absolutely must stop being so predictable via situational play-calling tendencies, with a first-down rush rate amongst the league leaders through three weeks. DeMeco Ryans’ defense is always amongst the league leaders in yards allowed per carry due to scheme, and 2024 is no different. The Texans are currently holding opponents to 4.1 yards per carry (10^th) after ranking second in 2023 at just 3.6 yards per carry allowed. That leaves this a poor on-paper spot considering the struggles of the Jacksonville offensive line and poor situational play-calling tendencies.

First off, the Texans have filtered the second-fewest targets to the slot in 2024. That said, they have faced the Colts without Josh Downs (primary slot receiver), the Vikings without T.J. Hockenson (primary slot pass catcher), and the Bears without Keenan Allen (primary slot receiver). Their defensive tendencies should actually lead to increased slot target rates based on Ryans’ coverage and alignment tendencies. Over the last two seasons, Ryans’ defenses have ceded the seventh-most yards to the slot (2022 in SF) and the ninth-most yards to the slot (2023 in HOU). So, those early-season slot target rates and production look like noise to me based on the state of the teams they have played. The Texans lead the league in Cover-4/quarters utilization in 2024 at 27.9% and are giving up the most FP/DB from two-high alignments through three weeks (0.94).

Enter Christian Kirk, who ranked second in the league in fantasy points per route run (FP/RR) against Cover-4 (behind only Jaylen Waddle) and 16^th in FP/RR against two-high alignments (0.50), of players who’ve run more than 50 routes in each split. Calvin Ridley and Engram led the Jaguars in TPRR against Cover-3 in 2023, and Ridley is longer in town and Engram appears likely to miss another week. Taken in context with where this team has struggled to this point in the season, Pederson’s comments following Week 3, and the historical tendencies of Ryans’ defenses, the table certainly appears to be set for Kirk to see immense opportunity in Week 4. 

Another aspect that needs to change for Pederson’s offense is a weird fascination with tertiary pass catchers seeing snaps, with him forcing Parker Washington, Devin Duvernay, and even Tim Jones into particular packages throughout the game, coming at the direct expense of his top three options. Cut the shit, Pederson, simplify the offense on early downs, and quit putting your team in long down-and-distance situations, bruh. There, I did the changes you hinted at after falling to 0-3. You’re welcome.

How HOUSTON Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• Steelers RB Jaylen Warren was reportedly pulled from the team’s Week 3 game against the Chargers by head coach Mike Tomlin “because of an ongoing injury issue.”
• Justin Fields has gone from project, to clear backup, to starting quarterback for one of the few remaining undefeated teams in the league. He drew the start in Week 3 while Russell Wilson served as the emergency quarterback. Mike Tomlin has already announced that Fields will start in Week 4 against the Colts.
• Both teams are in the bottom six in pass rate over expectation (PROE) which tells the story of how this game is likeliest to play out. To me, the largest influence on the game environment will be how Gus Bradley deploys his linebackers after he widened their base in Week 3. More on this below.

How Pittsburgh Will Try To Win ::

Through all the offseason talks about who was going to start under center for the Steelers, the identity of this team remains its defense. This coaching staff is also good at game planning for specific opponents, something the general public seems to have forgotten about offensive coordinator Arthur Smith after his tenure in Atlanta. Smith and Tomlin are generally slower to adjust during a game in what I dubbed the “adjustment phase” and “oh, shit phase,” but their collective game planning is one of their strengths. And with the defense they have, they are typically allowed to remain in their “game planning phase” deeper than the average team, aiming to shorten games, wear down their opponents, and win in the fourth quarter. One of the aspects of this matchup with the Colts that is likely to go largely overlooked is that the Colts are one of the easier teams in the league to game plan against, particularly their defense. Gus Bradley’s antiquated Cover-3-heavy defense remains fairly static, making it easier for their opponents to game plan in the week leading up to the game. That benefits the Steelers more so than a lot of the teams in the league. Expect a ground-heavy attack predicated on staying ahead of the sticks to string together long, sustained drives in this one.

While the matchup on the ground for the Steelers running backs is one of the better matchups on paper, Najee Harris has run almost exclusively behind zone blocking concepts through three weeks (46 zone to nine man/gap). That’s not necessarily an issue for the Steelers as he should be able to grind out four yards on early downs against the Colts, but we shouldn’t expect the same explosive runs we’ve seen from teams that utilize heavier rates of man/gap blocking concepts against the Colts during the first three weeks of the season. The reason has to do with linebacker responsibilities, which are more clearly defined against zone runs than they are against man/gap concepts. That assertion is backed up by a middling 4.4 yards allowed per carry, even while allowing 4.7 yards per carry to Josh Jacobs in Week 2. As such, Harris is likely to need elite volume to return a GPP-viable score in this spot, something he could see considering the injury to Jaylen Warren, the fact Harris has averaged 21.3 running back opportunities per game through three weeks, and a matchup that should allow the Steelers to remain in “game planning phase” much deeper than is typically the norm. I’m writing this before the first injury report of the week comes out, but I assume Warren is going to be listed as a non-participant on Wednesday and could potentially miss this game. We shouldn’t expect the simple act of Warren’s uncertainty to immediately boost the workload expectations of Harris as Cordarrelle Patterson is on hand to step into the lost work, and he’s familiar with offensive coordinator Arthur Smith’s offense from their time together in Atlanta. In all, consider it a good-not-great matchup on the ground for Harris and company. That is unless Gus Bradley continues forward with a widened linebacker unit. In Week 3, he widened the linebacker width, which I believe is a schematical adjustment after getting shredded by man/gap concepts over the first two weeks. That would be the exact opposite adjustment to make against the zone-heavy Steelers run game, introducing some level of uncertainty regarding expected rushing efficiency from Pittsburgh here.

George Pickens ranks top-24 in both team target market share (25.4%, 19^th) and targets per route run (26.8%, 24^th), but he has target counts of seven, four, and seven through three games in a run oriented offense. He is averaging a touch over 20 routes run per game, which is borderline ridiculous. Regular WR2 Van Jefferson was poked in the eye in Week 3 and missed a solid chunk of the game, eventually returning in the fourth quarter. In his absence, slot man Calvin Austin and backup perimeter wide receiver Scotty Miller handled secondary receiver duties alongside Pickens. The bigger story is that no pass-catcher on this offense outside of Pickens has seen more than a measly five targets in a game this season, which occurred against the Chargers when quarterback Justin Fields attempted 32 passes (he averaged 21.5 the first two weeks of the season). Tight end Pat Freiermuth has a putrid 4.3 aDOT and just 13 total targets through three games. There just isn’t enough volume to support anyone behind Pickens, and even then, Pickens has not exactly put up GPP-viable scores. Finally, Fields has fed running backs 19 targets on 75 total pass attempts so far, good for a 25.33% positional target rate.

How Indianapolis Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By papy324 >>

• The main notable on the injury report for the Broncos is ILB Alex Singleton, who led the team in tackles the past two seasons. His loss makes their run defense significantly weaker. On the Jets side, their main notable injury is OT Morgan Moses with a knee.
• Aaron Rodgers is running his typical slow-paced offense.
• The Broncos are running Sean Payton’s balanced, RB-target-heavy offense.
• The Jets are using Breece Hall as a lead back, but Braelon Allen is playing enough to have become a problem for Hall’s ceiling.
• The Broncos seem irritated with the performance of Jamal Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin. They added Tyler Badie to the active roster after he looked like the best back last week.
• Garrett Wilson is the focal point of the Jets passing attack, but he has a tough matchup and might draw shadow coverage from Patrick Surtain.
• Box Nix is very cheap. He’s an interesting tournament play paired with Courtland Sutton.

How denver Will Try To Win ::

The 1-2 Broncos come into Week 4 after putting a surprise 26-7 beatdown on a Bucs team that had looked like a contender through the first two weeks. The NFL is a variance-filled world, and it’s best to remember that the teams are usually all closer in ability than we think. “Any given Sunday” is a saying for a reason. After last week’s win, the Broncos look a little underrated, sitting at 1-2, with a point differential of plus six, having lost against two teams who are a combined 6-0. They lost a close 13-6 game to the Steelers in Week Two and a tough 26-20 game to Seattle in Week One. It wouldn’t take much of a change for the Broncos to be the shocking 3-0 team of the year, but instead, they look below average at first glance. Denver’s defense deserves much of the credit for their early season success, having held their first three opponents to a combined 46 points.

Sean Payton is known for his offense, and this year’s rendition has been a mixed bag. They are playing on the quick side (11th in seconds per play) and throwing at a relatively high rate (7th in pass rate over expectations). It’s worth noting that their PROE being in the top 10 in the league is a bit misleading. They’re only throwing slightly more than would be expected, but passing is down so much across the league that they are throwing at a relatively high rate compared to everyone else. One thing is clear: Payton is going to win or lose with Bo Nix; there are no training wheels this year. Helping Nix has been the play of Denver’s O-line. They’ve been better than expected (11th ranked by PFF) and surrendered just five pressures, with no sacks last week, on 40 pass attempts. They’re going to need to hold up against a Jets pass rush that has been fierce (1st in sack percentage) to start the year. To be fair, the Jets’ sack numbers are aided by their seven-sack performance last week against a Patriots O-line (32nd ranked by PFF) who can’t block anyone. The Jets have been hurt on the ground (25th in yards allowed per rush), and Payton is savvy enough to attack his opponent’s weakness. The Broncos are always balanced, but they are more likely to try and run the ball early in the game, hoping to keep things close before securing a late victory.

How new york Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By HILOW >>

• Eagles WRs A.J. Brown (hamstring) and DeVonta Smith (concussion) did not practice Wednesday.
• The Buccaneers listed 16 (!!!) players on the Wednesday injury report, with S Antoine Winfield and DL Calijah Kancey still out and NT Vita Vea returning to a limited session.
• Saquon Barkley is highly likely to see 25+ running back opportunities here while Dallas Goedert is highly likely to see eight or more targets, with clear ceiling for 10+, assuming Brown and Smith remain out (currently appears to be the likeliest scenario).

How PHILADELPHIA Will Try To Win ::

As we’ve talked about with this Eagles team under Nick Sirianni in the past, the Philadelphia offense typically becomes more concentrated about its primary pieces when one of those pieces misses a contest. The Eagles are now looking at the potential to be without two primary pieces in Week 4 against the Buccaneers with Brown still recovering from a hamstring injury (‘DNP’ Wednesday) and Smith in the concussion protocol after a vicious series of events against the Saints (also ‘DNP’ Wednesday). The fact that Smith did not practice in any capacity Wednesday indicates he is still experiencing symptoms and is not a good sign for his chances of playing in Week 4. That could leave a massive portion of the offense flowing through two primary pieces in Barkley and Goedert. We’ll talk about this more below, but Goedert’s role in this offense fundamentally changed in Week 3 after remaining confined to the short areas of the field in Week 2 without Brown. Another interesting aspect of this matchup is how Todd Bowles handles the hyper-mobility of Jalen Hurts, as he typically utilizes increased rates of unique blitz packages from a zone-heavy base. Finally, injuries on the defensive side of the ball for the Buccaneers have opened a path of relative weakness, with the team surrendering a robust 371.3 yards of offense per game through three weeks (27^th in the league) against a questionable schedule (Commanders in Jayden Daniels’ first NFL start, Lions, and Broncos in Bo Nix’s third NFL start).

Barkley quickly shed all offseason doubts as to his level of involvement in this offense, commanding a true workhorse role in the process. Barkley ranks second in snap share (87.3%), third in opportunity share (91.4%), second in red-zone opportunities (18), first in rushing yards (351), fourth in routes run and route participation rate (61 and 59.8%, respectively), and first in fantasy points per game (28.1) at the position. And he’s looked really, really good with the workload, forcing 11 missed tackles and surging to 3.51 yards after contact per attempt, with nine carries of 10+ yards and three carries of 15+ yards. After holding teams to 3.8 yards per carry in 2023, the Buccaneers are allowing a robust 4.9 yards per carry, struggling mightily against the Broncos in Week 3 without Vea. Vea returned to a limited practice Wednesday after missing Week 3 with a knee injury, hinting at a potential return against the Eagles. One of the aspects of the offense that has made Barkley so efficient is the unpredictability of Sirianni’s run game, as Barkley has 35 carries behind zone-blocking concepts and 26 carries behind man/gap concepts, the latter of which should be highly effective against the 3-4 base, Cover-3-heavy defensive tendencies of the Bucs. Kenneth Gainwell remains the preferred change-of-pace back over rookie Will Shipley, with the latter playing just four offensive snaps through three games.

We briefly mentioned the fundamental change to the structure of Goedert’s involvement in the offense in Week 3, which was present before the departure of Smith with a concussion. Goedert went from a 4.6-yard aDOT, 16% targets per route run (TPRR), and route structures confined to the short areas of the field as an outlet in the first two weeks to a 6.5-yard aDOT, 28% TPRR, and route structure built to create mismatches in space over the middle of the field in Week 3. A primary example of this change was fewer quick outs and comebacks and a higher rate of crossers, slants, and combination routes like sluggo (slant-and-go) against the Saints. Jahan Dotson began the Week 3 game as a starter opposite Smith while Johnny Wilson was used as Smith’s direct replacement during the game and Parris Campbell operated as the preferred slot receiver. Wilson, Dotson, and Campbell combined for five receptions on six targets, with Goedert (11 targets) and Smith (10 targets prior to departing) handled the bulk of the work, in keeping with the general tendency of Sirianni to keep the offense hyper-concentrated amongst its primary pieces. It will be a challenge for Sirianni to scheme Goedert usage against the zone-heavy, 3-4-heavy Buccaneers defense that has athletic linebackers, but I expect that to be a primary emphasis of the game plan this week.

How TAMPA BAY Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>

• Rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels has led the Washington offense to two straight games without having to punt.
• After a couple weeks of “dink and dunk” from the Commanders, they opened things up in a big way with some downfield shots against the Bengals on Monday night. 
• Arizona will likely be without tight end Trey McBride due to his concussion in Week 3.
• The Cardinals offense smashed in their last matchup with a poor secondary, Week 2 against the Rams.
• This game has the potential to turn into an absolute shootout, with dual-threat quarterbacks on both sides and coverage units that rank in the bottom five in the league.

How washington Will Try To Win ::

The Commanders were running the typical Kliff Kingsbury “Horizontal Raid” offense the first two weeks of the season, with most of their pass attempts at or near the line of scrimmage. In Week 3 against the Bengals, however, they hit on some huge plays downfield as Jayden Daniels finally showcased the elite deep ball skills he had shown in college. Washington enters the week with a 2-1 record tied with the Eagles atop the NFC East. A cross-country road trip to face the Cardinals presents an opportunity for first-year head coach Dan Quinn to continue this team’s momentum and establish themselves as a force in the NFC.

The Commanders offense revolves primarily around Jayden Daniels, but their running backs also play a huge role in their success. However, they will be without running back Austin Ekeler this week, presumably leaving the backfield to Brian Robinson, Jr. The backfield is critical to Washington’s offense in many ways. An effective running game helps open things up for Daniels to make plays with his legs, and the threat of Daniels running also opens holes for the RBs. It is a mutually beneficial situation. Washington has also had success throwing the ball to their running backs this season and while Ekeler was a massive part of that, Robinson is more than capable in that area. Near the goal line, the Commanders are likely to try to score on the ground as well, leveraging the dual threat of Daniels and a running back, which, when they spread the formation, becomes very hard to handle both threats inside the 5. 

The Bengals made some noise last week as one of their players called the Commanders “a college offense” due to their limited creativity and focus on short passing. To be fair, this was a pretty accurate assessment at the time. However, to the Commanders credit, they opened things up in Week 3. In hindsight, we can see how the teams that the Commanders opened the season against (Bucs and Giants) got more pressure and played better coverage than the Bengals did in Week 3. Now Washington faces Arizona, who has PFF’s 30th graded coverage unit and ranks 27th in QB pressure rate. Daniels should have time to take shots down the field once again, and the Cardinals’ secondary appears on paper to be worse than the Bengals unit that Daniels torched last week. Terry McLaurin is the top option for Daniels, and Noah Brown, who was signed late in the preseason, is also emerging as a consistent option. Those two, along with tight end Zach Ertz (in a homecoming game), should be the primary targets for Daniels when he airs it out, with Robinson and Daniels also providing ample production on the ground.

How arizona Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>

• New England looks to bounce back from an embarrassing Thursday night loss to the Jets in Week 3.
• Patriots quarterback Jacoby Brisset is in danger of losing his job to rookie Drake Maye if things don’t improve soon.
• San Francisco lost consecutive games for the first time since the middle of last season, a stretch that was also marred by injuries.
• The Patriots defense continues to operate as a “pass funnel” unit that prioritizes stopping the run.
• San Francisco is once again likely to be without the services of stars Deebo Samuel and George Kittle this week.

How new england Will Try To Win ::

The Patriots rank near the bottom of the league in pass rate and are trying to win games by controlling the ball and clock while allowing their opponents to beat themselves. The philosophy is not that different from what Bill Belichick has done in recent years, as the focus is on execution and consistency. The Patriots lone victory in 2024 was Week 1 over the Bengals in an ugly, low scoring game where the Bengals had key players missing or limited and New England simply wore them down by not giving them anything easy. That is the recipe that the Patriots are chasing on a weekly basis, and this week, they travel cross country to face a 49ers team that is dealing with a litany of injuries.

The Boston media and fans are clamoring for rookie quarterback Drake Maye, who the Patriots selected 3rd overall in April. It would not be surprising to see a switch made in the coming weeks, perhaps even mid-game at some point. My guess would be that after the 10-day layoff following last Thursday night, the Patriots will give Brissett another shot here, but if they lay another dud as they did against the Jets, his time will be done in favor of the young guy. The Patriots are going to rely on their running game, and the 49ers defense is coming off a game in which they knew all the Rams had was Kyren Williams, yet they still let him beat them. Rhamondre Stevenson was benched following a fumble in Week 3 and replaced by Antonio Gibson. You could make a case that the Patriots best QB and RB are both backups at the moment. We should expect Gibson and Stevenson to both be focal points early in this game as the Patriots try to control the ball. They simply can’t be giving their opponents short fields, and their first two games, which had both teams score 20 or fewer points in regulation, is their blueprint. When New England throws the ball, expect Demario Douglas and Hunter Henry to be busy as they work the short to intermediate areas of the field and seem to get open most consistently. We could also see higher involvement for highly touted rookie Ja’Lynn Polk, who has seen his playing time increase throughout the year and who will eventually need to be a big part of this offense for them to succeed and for the Patriots to know what they are working with for the long-term.

How san francisco Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>

• The Chiefs are 3-0 on the back of their defense and pulling out close victories.
• Los Angeles suffered their first loss of the season in Pittsburgh in Week 3 and will now look to rebound in a big AFC West showdown.
• The Chargers are dealing with injuries to key players from their offensive line and defense.
• Kansas City’s pass rate bounced back up in Week 3 without Isiah Pacheco after the Bengals dared them to run it the previous week.
• This game should have a lot fewer plays (and points) than in past seasons, as both teams have considerably slowed down their tempo in 2024.
• The Chiefs will need to get one or both of Travis Kelce and Xavier Worthy going if they want their offense to open up.

How kansas city Will Try To Win ::

These are not the Chiefs we became accustomed to seeing during the early years of Patrick Mahomes career. Rather than track meets and shootouts, the Chiefs of the last 18 months have been grinding out victories with great defense and out-executing their opponents. (I will leave discussions about officials out of it for now.) The pass rate for Kansas City has dropped again this year, and they are not the same team we saw in the past, as there is no Tyreek Hill, and Travis Kelce has not been anything close to what he was in his prime. The Chiefs know that Mahomes can win games in the 4th quarter, and they know that their defense is unlikely to get torched and put them way behind. Because of this, they do not take as many downfield chances, push the tempo, or get as aggressive in the red zone as we’ve seen in past seasons. 

This week’s matchup with the Chargers is one that, on the surface, lends itself to a similar low-scoring grinder for Kansas City. However, the Chargers will be without star safety Derwin James and possibly edge rusher Joey Bosa. The Chiefs are still adjusting to life without Isiah Pacheco and threw the ball closer to their 2023 rate in Week 3 with 45 Patrick Mahomes dropbacks compared to 23 running back carries. We should expect a similar 2-to-1 ratio in pass attempts in this game, at least as long as the score is competitive. The absence of James may give the Chiefs more inclination to find a way to get Travis Kelce involved, while rookie receiver Xavier Worthy will also have to take a step forward in terms of both usage and production if the Chiefs offense is ever going to ascend again. The engine of this offense, however, is undoubtedly second-year WR Rashee Rice, who leads the league in receptions and is second in yards through three weeks. The Chiefs get Rice involved in all areas of the field through screens, slants, and vertical concepts. He is great with the ball in his hands after the catch and sustains drives for Kansas City consistently. The Chargers have PFF’s 2nd graded coverage unit and will certainly be keyed in on Rice, so the Chiefs offense will need to make it a priority to get Kelce and/or Worthy involved from the outset of this one.

How los angeles Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By MIKE JOHNSON >>

• Cleveland enters this game searching for answers after an ugly loss to the Giants in Week 2. Their only win came in Week 2 against a Jaguars team that looks less and less impressive each week.
• Las Vegas has had some wild momentum swings already in this young season, with a huge win at Baltimore and an ugly loss at home to the Panthers.
• Somewhat surprisingly, this game features the third- and fourth-ranked teams in the NFL in pass rate over expectation (PROE).
• We should expect high play volume in this one, which could lead to a lot of sacks and turnovers.
• It wouldn’t be surprising to see a blowout one way or the other, and each side seems equally likely to implode.

How cLEVELAND Will Try To Win ::

The Browns have had a quarterback problem for about as long as I can remember. Their current quarterback problem is much different than the one they’ve been dealing with for decades, though. For so long, the Browns have been unable to find a franchise QB that they could trust and build around. Now the Browns are stuck with a QB who they can’t get rid of. Life comes at you fast. 

The Deshaun Watson experience is a wild one. The Browns, for whatever reason, rank third in the NFL in PROE and second in overall pass rate through three weeks. When you see those rankings, you would expect the passing game is high-powered or at the very least, average in efficiency. You would be mistaken. Watson ranks ninth in the NFL in average intended air yards per pass attempt, but he ranks 25th in completed air yards per pass attempt. What this means is that Watson is firing the ball downfield consistently and not really coming close. 

Adding to this issue is the fact that Watson has taken more sacks than any other quarterback in the NFL through three weeks. Cleveland has had some injury issues with its offensive line, but they were arguably a top-five unit entering the season and it wasn’t a “totally decimated” situation. Honestly, it is hard to explain what we have seen thus far from Cleveland, and it is almost certain that the Browns would have already benched Watson if not for his massive, fully guaranteed contract.

Now that we have that out of the way, what will they do in Week 4? Running back Jerome Ford missed practice on Wednesday with a knee injury and his status for Sunday is uncertain, while D’Onta Foreman should also have a role regardless of Ford’s status in what appears to be a great matchup against a Raiders defense that ranks 30th in the NFL in run defense DVOA. The Browns’ offensive line has not been fully healthy yet this year, as tackles Jack Conklin and Jedrick Wills have each missed time. Both missed practice Wednesday, and it seems unlikely the line will be fully intact this week as well. 

As mentioned earlier, the Browns are throwing at a high rate despite their inefficiency. A matchup with the Raiders defense, which ranks 26th in the NFL in sack percentage and was just roasted by Andy Dalton, may be exactly what the Browns’ offense needs. They should be able to run the ball more efficiently than they have so far this year, which should in turn make things easier on the passing game. Expect Cleveland to try to have a more balanced approach early in this game and get back to the roots of Kevin Stefanski’s earlier days with the team.

How las vegas Will Try To Win ::

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Sunday night should be a fun one as the Bills visit the Ravens for a 46.5 total game in which the Ravens are favored by 2.5 points. Fortunately for us, this is one of the few games of the week without any questionable tags due to hamstring injuries, so we can look at it pretty straight up. 

Baltimore

We’ll start with the Ravens and their run game. Derrick Henry has been racking up fantasy points (20.2 DK points per game!) and to some extent, carries (56 in three games), and he’s also a home favorite in a plus matchup, but before we go all in, there are some caution signs though. First, of course, Lamar Jackson is going to steal some rushing scores. Second, Henry has only played 50% of the offensive snaps on the season. Third, his passing game role is nearly nonexistent with just four targets so far. Fourth, his production has been buoyed by a likely-not-sustainable four touchdowns (I doubt he will score 1.3 per game the rest of the way). Henry’s a solid play – again, he’s a home favorite running back in a good matchup and attached to a good rushing offense – but he’s not a lock-button type smash. At least to me. He’s also a scary fade who can bury you in any game. I’ll probably just roughly match the field in exposure here and move on. Behind Henry, we have Justice Hill in a fairly robust RB2 role – just 10 carries but also 12 targets on the year. Obviously, somewhat game script dependent due to the majority of his production coming from receiving, Hill fits best on rosters predicated on the Bills pulling off the upset win. $5,400 is a tough price to pay for him, which should result in his ownership being minuscule. 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

In the passing game, well, by now anyone who’s been around OWS for a while knows how much I hate writing up the Ravens. Zay Flowers is the WR1 and has played the most snaps of any skill position player. His targets per game have gone 10, 11, and . . . 4. Look, this isn’t a high-volume passing offense, generally speaking, but it can be when needed: Lamar Jackson had 41 dropbacks in a loss against the Chiefs in Week 1, then 31 in an upset loss against the Raiders in Week 2, then just 15 against Dallas in Week 3 (in a game that the Ravens controlled start to finish). Do the math real quick and that gives Flowers a robust 27.8% target share, which we like, we just need passing volume, for which we need game script, or we need him to hit a long play and/or a touchdown to pay off on less volume. WR2 Rashod Bateman has played the next most snaps on offense (just a bit under 80%), and since the next-highest is around 60%, there is a very meaningful gap between Bateman and the rest of the receiving corps in terms of how much they’re on the field. Bateman hasn’t hit yet and he’ll likely need to come down with a long one in order to do so, but he has 4-5 targets in each game and he’s priced next to the kickers. This is a high-risk spot and not one I feel especially safe with but it’s hard to ignore a player who’s on the field that much for a good offense and at this price, and I want to invest in Bateman as a tournament play. Same with WR3 Nelson Agholor, who’s on the field a bit less but is also priced all the way down at $3,200. The downside for Agholor is that he comes off the field when the Ravens run 2-TE sets, which they do at a pretty high rate, and he isn’t a big target earner, but at his price, one touchdown catch will likely pay off his salary and that’s something we saw him pull off four times last year despite the extremely modest receiving volume. WR4 Tylan Wallace is a punt option, which brings us to tight end…ugh. 

Mark Andrews, where are you? Andrews’ snap counts have gone 74% → 63% → 33%. In Week 1, Andrews was bracketed all game, in Week 2 he saw 5 targets on 31 Lamar pass attempts (ok, I guess, but under a 20% target share), and in Week 3 he saw 1 target and barely any snaps, albeit in a game the Ravens barely threw. What is happening here? I have some suspicion there might have been some kind of nagging injury last week, but you’d think we would have heard something by now. If not an injury, then either the Ravens think Likely has passed Andrews (i.e. they think Andrews is at least a bit washed), or, they were intentionally trying to preserve/protect Andrews in a game where they felt they didn’t need him. It’s hard for me to imagine Andrews is washed at age 29 given how elite per-target and per-route metrics last year, so my best guess is they were just protecting him. He’s a super risky play because we just don’t know, but that, to me, makes him an elite tournament option. The floor is clearly zero here as we saw last week, but how often have we gotten to play Mark Andrews in Showdown at just $5,800? The answer here is . . . well, I don’t know, because I don’t keep a data set of player pricing, but my guess is either never or almost never. I’m in for tournaments. As for Likely, he’s playing a lot but after his Week 1 explosion that was driven by matchup, he has four targets. He’s super talented and will have other big games – and maybe this will be one – but he’s really not all that different from the rest of the Ravens secondary receiving options in terms of workload (though clearly he’s better in terms of talent). I’ve thought a lot about Andrews and Likely and if we can pair them – there’s clearly some negative correlation there, so I’d be a little wary of it, but I wouldn’t rule it out entirely (that means in an optimizer if I have one I’d have a rule that applies a negative boost to the other, or in the Bink Machine you could make a group of the two and limit the paired exposure). 

Buffalo

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

We get another two games on Monday so more Showdowns (plus, you know, a 2-game slate with big prizes if you’re into that kind of thing). The first game has the Titans visiting the Dolphins for a whopping 37 point total with Miami favored by 2.5. What a fun game! But these low-scoring games bring a different dynamic that a lot of Showdown players struggle to build for, so, hopefully we can figure out some edge here. 

Miami

The Miami backfield has a lot of uncertainty right now as Raheem Mostert is still questionable after missing Week 3. Mostert is reportedly “trying to be ready,” but who even knows what that means. My best guess is he plays as he got limited practices in all week, which would obviously take a bit of the luster off of De’Von Achane. When Mostert played in Week 1, Achane played 52% of the snaps and saw 17 opportunities, while in Weeks 2 and 3 with no Mostert, Achane played 62% and 74% of the snaps and handled 29 (!) and 16 opportunities, respectively. The Dolphins were absolutely crushed in Week 3, which likely kept Achane’s workload down. If Mostert misses, I think we can pencil Achane in for 18+ opportunities but with outlier outcomes ranging up into the high 20s, while if Mostert plays he’s probably in the 14-18 range. With Achane you’re looking for efficiency more than volume. The problem is that at least so far we haven’t seen the kind of insane efficiency he delivered last season (which, to be fair, is harder to achieve with backup quarterbacks as the offense overall is going to be less efficient). The other important thing to keep in mind here is that there just aren’t a lot of “strong plays” in this game because both of these teams are . . . well . . . bad. What that means is that while Achane looks overpriced at $10.6k, especially if Mostert plays, you have to ask “overpriced compared to whom? Who else would I spend on?” Achane’s ceiling is as high as anyone else’s in this game, and so even though he looks awfully expensive compared to a “normal” Showdown, it’s hard to argue that he isn’t worth the spend in this one. He is obviously a stronger play if Mostert misses, but I’d argue he’s in play even at this price if Mostert plays – he’s just more volatile. Mostert would be hard to trust in his first game back, and after seeing just nine touches in Week 1, I’d want a little bit of tournament exposure to him but I wouldn’t feel great about it, while a combination of Jeff Wilson and rookie Jaylen Wright are in play as Achane’s backup if Mostert sits. I would view them both as punt plays as both saw hardly any work in Weeks 2-3, and I wouldn’t play them in the same lineup.

Showdown Ownership Projections!

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In the passing game, the Dolphins should get a small upgrade with Skylar Thompson missing and Tyler . . . errr . . . ”Snoop” Huntley taking over at QB (side note: when you’re just a backup, are you allowed to give yourself a nickname, especially one like Snoop?). Huntley has been a reasonably capable quarterback in the past and he has good players to throw to (he can also run a little bit), so this should be at least a bit of an upgrade to Tyreek Hill, who has suffered through two awful performances with 11 targets and 64 scoreless receiving yards in the last two games. Similar to Achane, Tyreek is “too expensive” based on what we think of as being normal in Showdown but in this game, he’s up there with Achane for the highest ceiling on the slate. I have a slight lean in Achane’s favor here as his scoring is less dependent on his backup QB, but both are certainly in play. Jaylen Waddle is a tougher sell; possibly the most talented WR2 in the league (or at least certainly up there), poor Waddle has just 14 targets on the season. Yikes. It’s tough being behind two clear studs, and it’s really tough to make a bull case for Waddle beyond “football is weird, maybe he gets a touchdown this week.” I’ll have some in my tournament player pool but there’s nothing that points to us having a high degree of confidence in him. WR3 has been manned by Braxton Berrios so far but we may get Malik Washington finally making his NFL debut. I don’t think Berrios would go away entirely, but I’d expect Washington to settle into the WR3 role over time. At $200, he’s worth taking some shots on – he’s pretty talented, and he was a trendy last-round Best Ball pick, just recognize that the Dolphins are likely to ease him in (I want some and I want to be overweight the field, but it’s not anything like an all-in spot). Erik Ezukanma and/or Dee Eskridge will soak up a few rotational WR snaps but they are not good plays. 

At tight end, the Dolphins are running a multi-way split with Julian Hill, Durham Smythe, and Jonnu Smith all seeing meaningful snaps, but only Hill has reached the 50% snap mark, and that only happened once. Jonnu is the best pass catcher and he’s being used that way, leading the position with 12 targets compared to 6 for Smythe and 5 for Hill. He’s the only one you can reasonably play as a value option, and while he’s not one of the main offensive weapons in this offense, he’s quite talented and can break big plays. He’s a high-variance tournament option, while Smythe and Hill are just (poor) dart throws. 

Tennessee

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

The second of the Monday games looks way more interesting with a 46.5 total and the Lions favored by 3.5. Side note: on the 2-game slate, everyone is going to build around this game with just one or two plays from TEN/MIA game so a very simple way to be different would be to just use three or more plays from TEN/MIA. Anyhow, the Seahawks are off to the races this year with a 3-0 start and a +30 point differential (best in the NFL), while the Lions are a solid 2-1 having dropped a game to the Bucs. 

Detroit

We’ll start with the home Lions. As we know, they run a split backfield with both David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs getting healthy amounts of work. So far Gibbs has played 54% of the snaps to Monty’s 44%, though Gibbs has 53 opportunities (40 carries, 13 targets) to Monty’s 59 (51 carries, 8 targets). Monty is the grinder while Gibbs is better in the receiving game and has more big play upside, but it’s closer between them than I thought it would be leading into the season, especially in targets. I wonder if the emergence of Jameson Williams as a capable receiver has impacted Gibbs’ targets . . . maybe? It’s hard to say, it’s still early. The Seahawks defense has looked quite good to start the season but of course, they’ve only played the Broncos, Patriots, and Dolphins, and the Lions are a far different test so I don’t think we should put much weight at all into Seattle’s early defensive statistics. Their prices have crept closer together and I view them as pretty interchangeable, really. If Seattle jumps out to a lead, I would want Gibbs, while Monty has an edge in builds where Detroit wins, but it’s very close between them. Gun to my head here, I’ll lean a little Monty’s way because Detroit is a home favorite and he’s $1k cheaper. 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

In the passing game, Jameson’s emergence has created some difficulties in evaluating the Lions, because they just have so many weapons. Kind of like the 49ers, really. Obviously, Amon-Ra St. Brown is the big dog here with 33 targets on 106 Jared Goff dropbacks. He’s always a strong play, though just keep in mind he’s not really a deep ball guy and thus he’s going to need volume to really smash (his best game of the year so far was against Tampa and it took 19 targets). Jameson Williams is really coming on in his second true year with 24 targets and 230 total yards, including one carry per game. Jamo has more big play upside, and at $6,800 he could pay off his salary without a ton of volume if he catches a long one. He’s one of my favorite Lions when we consider price. At WR3, Kalif Raymond appears to be getting phased out by former Bronco Tim Patrick, who played 50% of the snaps last week to Raymond’s 7%. The Lions run 12 personnel a lot so around 50-60% is where the WR3 role will top out and given how many other strong weapons they have, it’s unlikely that Patrick will ever get more than a couple of targets except in outlier scenarios. He’s a tourney punt play. 

At tight end, the Lions have Sam LaPorta and Brock Wright splitting time. LaPorta missed a bit of time last week with an ankle injury but recovered quickly and doesn’t carry an injury designation. The problem is that he’s only seen 10 targets on the season. Rough for the guy who was being drafted as the overall TE1! Williams is clearly impacting LaPorta’s role, but I expect over the season things will swing back to some sort of equilibrium. I do prefer Williams here but if LaPorta looks like he’s going to come at a material ownership discount (quite likely as they’re priced $400 apart), LaPorta sure makes for an awesome tournament play for anyone bold enough to take the plunge. Wright is mostly a blocker but can be used as a punt option by virtue of how much he’s on the field. 

The Lions are a really tough team to evaluate overall with two good running backs and three strong pass catchers, it’s just tough to figure out where the ball is going. Amon-Ra is obviously awesome but expensive, and otherwise, I will probably let ownership dictate my path. I do really like Williams and I like Montgomery in “Lions win” builds but if Gibbs/LaPorta look likely to be lower owned, I don’t mind switching it up. It’s a long season and we shouldn’t put too much weight on three weeks of data. Over the course of the year, I expect all of these guys to be involved. 

Seattle