Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- The return of running back Aaron Jones to Green Bay after he attempted a Lambeau leap on the road in Week 1 against the Giants following his first touchdown of the season. Some habits appear difficult to shed.
- Packers QB Jordan Love has gotten in two limited sessions to start Week 4 preparation, with head coach Matt LaFleur telling the media, “we’ll give him up to game time” after practice Thursday.
- Vikings QB Sam Darnold (knee) and WR Jordan Addison (ankle) were limited to start the week on Wednesday – both appear on track to play in Week 4.
- From a macro matchup perspective, this is going to be a really fun game to watch as the chess match unfolds between two madmen (LaFleur versus Flores).
How Minnesota Will Try To Win ::
The Vikings have done an amazing job at controlling time of possession, limiting scoring in the red zone on defense, creating disruption on defense, and sustaining drives on offense through three weeks. And they’ve done it without arguably the top tight end in the game at present in T.J. Hockenson, and without their secondary pass-catching option in second-year wide receiver Jordan Addison. Sure, having the best wide receiver on the planet helps in that endeavor, but this team is winning through coaching right now, on both sides of the ball. The unpredictable yet aggressive nature of Brian Flores’ defense is a marvel to watch on game day as he plays grown-man chess games with opposing offenses. Kevin O’Connell continues to call an offense designed to place his primary players in the best position to succeed, doing so this year with a largely unproven quarterback in Sam Darnold. On that note, Darnold ranks 13th in the league in passing yardage through three weeks, with an accompanying 7.6 average intended air yards, 4.4% completion rate over expectation, 8.42 yards per attempt, has taken just eight sacks, all the while facing pressure at the seventh highest rate in the league (pressure on 41.6% of dropbacks). What he has done through three weeks is a marvel, by all statistical measures.
The ground game sees the return of Aaron Jones to Lambeau, where he played the first seven years of his NFL career. It was funny to me, as a Packers fan, watching Jones try and execute a Lambeau leap on his first touchdown as a Viking on the road against the Giants in Week 1 – we’ll see if he has the opportunity to do so this week and how it will be received. The Green Bay run defense remains a relative liability, ceding 4.7 yards per carry through three weeks after allowing 4.5 yards per carry a season ago. Jones has been utilized in a “lead back” role, seeing 59.9% of the offensive snaps and 65.9% of the team opportunities. Even so, 4.7 targets per game to go with 14 carries per game leaves Jones with a seventh-ranked average weighted opportunity mark (because targets are worth 2.55 times more than a carry in PPR formats, on average). Ty Chandler is the clear change of pace back and is trusted in key situations after spending the previous two seasons with this coaching staff in Minnesota, meaning he could snipe some touchdowns away from Jones this season.
Justin Jefferson is the most talented wide receiver in the game currently, there is no debating that. What’s most impressive about this offense through three weeks is that they haven’t yet been put in a situation where they’ve even had to force-feed Jefferson in blanket coverage, with Jefferson owning 30.0% team target share but a rather pedestrian-for-him 26.3% targets per route run rate. Jalen Nailor stepped into a near every down role with Addison out of commission the previous two games, likely retreating to a rotational piece with the latter’s return. The tight end situation has been a smattering of mediocrity split between Johnny Mundt and Josh Oliver through three weeks, although former Packer Robert Tonyan returned to the active lineup in Week 3 (played only three offensive snaps). Expect this team to continue winning through scheme and coaching until Addison gets fully healthy and tight end T.J. Hockenson returns from injured reserve. Schematically speaking, O’Connell does a masterful job at keeping reads simple for Darnold through layered routes that function to generate space for the first read, but Darnold has been adept at getting through his progressions this season, as evidenced by a 61.5% first-read target rate (39th in the league – for comparison, Malik Willis leads the league at 85.3%).
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