Kickoff Sunday, Sep 29th 4:25pm Eastern

Chiefs (
24.25) at

Chargers (
16.75)

Over/Under 41.0

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Notes

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>
  • The Chiefs are 3-0 on the back of their defense and pulling out close victories.
  • Los Angeles suffered their first loss of the season in Pittsburgh in Week 3 and will now look to rebound in a big AFC West showdown.
  • The Chargers are dealing with injuries to key players from their offensive line and defense.
  • Kansas City’s pass rate bounced back up in Week 3 without Isiah Pacheco after the Bengals dared them to run it the previous week.
  • This game should have a lot fewer plays (and points) than in past seasons, as both teams have considerably slowed down their tempo in 2024.
  • The Chiefs will need to get one or both of Travis Kelce and Xavier Worthy going if they want their offense to open up.

How kansas city Will Try To Win ::

These are not the Chiefs we became accustomed to seeing during the early years of Patrick Mahomes career. Rather than track meets and shootouts, the Chiefs of the last 18 months have been grinding out victories with great defense and out-executing their opponents. (I will leave discussions about officials out of it for now.) The pass rate for Kansas City has dropped again this year, and they are not the same team we saw in the past, as there is no Tyreek Hill, and Travis Kelce has not been anything close to what he was in his prime. The Chiefs know that Mahomes can win games in the 4th quarter, and they know that their defense is unlikely to get torched and put them way behind. Because of this, they do not take as many downfield chances, push the tempo, or get as aggressive in the red zone as we’ve seen in past seasons. 

This week’s matchup with the Chargers is one that, on the surface, lends itself to a similar low-scoring grinder for Kansas City. However, the Chargers will be without star safety Derwin James and possibly edge rusher Joey Bosa. The Chiefs are still adjusting to life without Isiah Pacheco and threw the ball closer to their 2023 rate in Week 3 with 45 Patrick Mahomes dropbacks compared to 23 running back carries. We should expect a similar 2-to-1 ratio in pass attempts in this game, at least as long as the score is competitive. The absence of James may give the Chiefs more inclination to find a way to get Travis Kelce involved, while rookie receiver Xavier Worthy will also have to take a step forward in terms of both usage and production if the Chiefs offense is ever going to ascend again. The engine of this offense, however, is undoubtedly second-year WR Rashee Rice, who leads the league in receptions and is second in yards through three weeks. The Chiefs get Rice involved in all areas of the field through screens, slants, and vertical concepts. He is great with the ball in his hands after the catch and sustains drives for Kansas City consistently. The Chargers have PFF’s 2nd graded coverage unit and will certainly be keyed in on Rice, so the Chiefs offense will need to make it a priority to get Kelce and/or Worthy involved from the outset of this one.

How los angeles Will Try To Win ::

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