Cowboys (

24.75) at
Giants (

19.75)

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Week 4 begins with the Cowboys at the Giants. We have a 44 total game with Dallas favored by 4.5. We’ve seen these teams for three weeks now and the question is, do we know who they are? How sticky is what we’ve seen from them, and how much is just early season variance? The Cowboys were supposed to have a good defense, yet they’ve allowed 29.7 offensive points per game, third most in the league. The Giants were not expected to be very good (sorry fans) but have fallen below even those low expectations, scoring just 15 points per game. What’s real? We don’t really know, but let’s see what we think is likely.

New York

We’ll start with the Giants. Devin Singletary has been capably holding down the lead-back role so far, playing just over 70% of the snaps with backup Tyrone Tracy taking the rest. Singletary has 42 carries and 10 targets on the season, so he isn’t in the kind of bell cow role we love to see, but 17.3 opportunities per game ain’t shabby and it represents 80% of New York’s running back touches. Tyrone Tracy has seen 13 opportunities of his own. The matchup in the early going looks awesome with Dallas allowing a whopping 186 rushing yards per game (most in the NFL), but just keep in mind they’ve faced teams like Baltimore and New Orleans, with great rushing attacks, whereas New York has the 24th-ranked offensive line. This is a spot where it’s tough to figure out what to trust. Do we trust that Dallas has been crushed on the ground so far? Or, do we trust that Dallas has a well-ranked defensive line while New York’s O line ranks so low? I don’t know the answer to that. My guess is the Dallas defense is better than they’ve played so far, but I could be wrong (note that defensive stats are VERY un-sticky year over year, so the fact that Dallas’ D was so good last year does not really mean they’ll be good this year). As such, this is a spot where I think I’ll let ownership as well as the game scenario I’m building for dictate my approach. If it looks like people are flocking to Singletary, I’m fine taking an underweight position, but if people are saying “Eww, Giants are bad” and avoiding, I’m happy to play more. 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

The Giants passing game is mostly a debacle with Daniel Jones at the helm . . . except that Jones has thrown 4 touchdowns to 0 interceptions the last two games, and while they got to face Washington’s excuse for a defense, they also faced Cleveland. Jones struggled in Week 1 against the Vikings, but we’ve seen the 49ers and Texans passing attacks also struggle against Minnesota, so I’m willing to give him a pass there. Does that mean I think the Giants passing attack is great? Hardly, but I think they might be a bit better than people are giving them credit for. Of course, a lot of that has to do with rookie Malik Nabers, who has 205 receiving yards in the last two weeks with 3 of 4 Jones touchdowns. Nabers has caught just under 50% of Jones’ passing yards in those games and 75% of his touchdowns while seeing an insane 30 targets out of 62 dropbacks. How’s that for a concentration of offense? The Giants are going to keep throwing to Nabers until teams show they can guard him, but with an offense that doesn’t have a lot of other talent, I expect we’ll start seeing teams just double-team Nabers consistently in the very near future. It’s really hard not to love Nabers as this kind of target share is unheard of, and while I doubt he’ll end the season near the 50% mark, he’s very clearly the #1 guy and he’s going to have a very healthy workload all year. Behind Nabers are Darius Slayton and Wan’dale Robinson with Jalin Hyatt playing a small WR4 role. Slayton got a little banged up but was tagged as limited on Monday so I expect he’s likely to play, but if he misses, that means more work for Hyatt, and then one of Bryce Ford-Wheaton or Ihmir Smith-Marsette would fill in the WR4 role. With Nabers feasting there isn’t a lot of room for other receivers. Slayton has 10 targets on the season for 66 scoreless yards. We’ve seen upside from him before, but as long as Nabers is hanging around it’s hard to view him as anything more than a punt play. Wan’dale, though, looks interesting to me. He’s just $4,800 and has averaged 8 targets per game so far – they’re mostly short targets, but especially on DK he can rack up PPR points quickly. His ceiling is somewhat limited if he doesn’t score a touchdown but he really shouldn’t be priced in between the kickers, he should be somewhere in the $6k range – he’s a solid value option. Tight end is led by Theo Johnson who has 7 targets on the year. Whee. Chris Manhertz and Daniel Bellinger are backing him up – all three of the New York tight ends are just MME punt options. 

Dallas