Titans (

17.5) at
Dolphins (

20)

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

We get another two games on Monday so more Showdowns (plus, you know, a 2-game slate with big prizes if you’re into that kind of thing). The first game has the Titans visiting the Dolphins for a whopping 37 point total with Miami favored by 2.5. What a fun game! But these low-scoring games bring a different dynamic that a lot of Showdown players struggle to build for, so, hopefully we can figure out some edge here. 

Miami

The Miami backfield has a lot of uncertainty right now as Raheem Mostert is still questionable after missing Week 3. Mostert is reportedly “trying to be ready,” but who even knows what that means. My best guess is he plays as he got limited practices in all week, which would obviously take a bit of the luster off of De’Von Achane. When Mostert played in Week 1, Achane played 52% of the snaps and saw 17 opportunities, while in Weeks 2 and 3 with no Mostert, Achane played 62% and 74% of the snaps and handled 29 (!) and 16 opportunities, respectively. The Dolphins were absolutely crushed in Week 3, which likely kept Achane’s workload down. If Mostert misses, I think we can pencil Achane in for 18+ opportunities but with outlier outcomes ranging up into the high 20s, while if Mostert plays he’s probably in the 14-18 range. With Achane you’re looking for efficiency more than volume. The problem is that at least so far we haven’t seen the kind of insane efficiency he delivered last season (which, to be fair, is harder to achieve with backup quarterbacks as the offense overall is going to be less efficient). The other important thing to keep in mind here is that there just aren’t a lot of “strong plays” in this game because both of these teams are . . . well . . . bad. What that means is that while Achane looks overpriced at $10.6k, especially if Mostert plays, you have to ask “overpriced compared to whom? Who else would I spend on?” Achane’s ceiling is as high as anyone else’s in this game, and so even though he looks awfully expensive compared to a “normal” Showdown, it’s hard to argue that he isn’t worth the spend in this one. He is obviously a stronger play if Mostert misses, but I’d argue he’s in play even at this price if Mostert plays – he’s just more volatile. Mostert would be hard to trust in his first game back, and after seeing just nine touches in Week 1, I’d want a little bit of tournament exposure to him but I wouldn’t feel great about it, while a combination of Jeff Wilson and rookie Jaylen Wright are in play as Achane’s backup if Mostert sits. I would view them both as punt plays as both saw hardly any work in Weeks 2-3, and I wouldn’t play them in the same lineup.

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

In the passing game, the Dolphins should get a small upgrade with Skylar Thompson missing and Tyler . . . errr . . . ”Snoop” Huntley taking over at QB (side note: when you’re just a backup, are you allowed to give yourself a nickname, especially one like Snoop?). Huntley has been a reasonably capable quarterback in the past and he has good players to throw to (he can also run a little bit), so this should be at least a bit of an upgrade to Tyreek Hill, who has suffered through two awful performances with 11 targets and 64 scoreless receiving yards in the last two games. Similar to Achane, Tyreek is “too expensive” based on what we think of as being normal in Showdown but in this game, he’s up there with Achane for the highest ceiling on the slate. I have a slight lean in Achane’s favor here as his scoring is less dependent on his backup QB, but both are certainly in play. Jaylen Waddle is a tougher sell; possibly the most talented WR2 in the league (or at least certainly up there), poor Waddle has just 14 targets on the season. Yikes. It’s tough being behind two clear studs, and it’s really tough to make a bull case for Waddle beyond “football is weird, maybe he gets a touchdown this week.” I’ll have some in my tournament player pool but there’s nothing that points to us having a high degree of confidence in him. WR3 has been manned by Braxton Berrios so far but we may get Malik Washington finally making his NFL debut. I don’t think Berrios would go away entirely, but I’d expect Washington to settle into the WR3 role over time. At $200, he’s worth taking some shots on – he’s pretty talented, and he was a trendy last-round Best Ball pick, just recognize that the Dolphins are likely to ease him in (I want some and I want to be overweight the field, but it’s not anything like an all-in spot). Erik Ezukanma and/or Dee Eskridge will soak up a few rotational WR snaps but they are not good plays. 

At tight end, the Dolphins are running a multi-way split with Julian Hill, Durham Smythe, and Jonnu Smith all seeing meaningful snaps, but only Hill has reached the 50% snap mark, and that only happened once. Jonnu is the best pass catcher and he’s being used that way, leading the position with 12 targets compared to 6 for Smythe and 5 for Hill. He’s the only one you can reasonably play as a value option, and while he’s not one of the main offensive weapons in this offense, he’s quite talented and can break big plays. He’s a high-variance tournament option, while Smythe and Hill are just (poor) dart throws. 

Tennessee