Game Overview ::
By HILOW >>
- Eagles WRs A.J. Brown (hamstring) and DeVonta Smith (concussion) did not practice Wednesday.
- The Buccaneers listed 16 (!!!) players on the Wednesday injury report, with S Antoine Winfield and DL Calijah Kancey still out and NT Vita Vea returning to a limited session.
- Saquon Barkley is highly likely to see 25+ running back opportunities here while Dallas Goedert is highly likely to see eight or more targets, with clear ceiling for 10+, assuming Brown and Smith remain out (currently appears to be the likeliest scenario).
How PHILADELPHIA Will Try To Win ::
As we’ve talked about with this Eagles team under Nick Sirianni in the past, the Philadelphia offense typically becomes more concentrated about its primary pieces when one of those pieces misses a contest. The Eagles are now looking at the potential to be without two primary pieces in Week 4 against the Buccaneers with Brown still recovering from a hamstring injury (‘DNP’ Wednesday) and Smith in the concussion protocol after a vicious series of events against the Saints (also ‘DNP’ Wednesday). The fact that Smith did not practice in any capacity Wednesday indicates he is still experiencing symptoms and is not a good sign for his chances of playing in Week 4. That could leave a massive portion of the offense flowing through two primary pieces in Barkley and Goedert. We’ll talk about this more below, but Goedert’s role in this offense fundamentally changed in Week 3 after remaining confined to the short areas of the field in Week 2 without Brown. Another interesting aspect of this matchup is how Todd Bowles handles the hyper-mobility of Jalen Hurts, as he typically utilizes increased rates of unique blitz packages from a zone-heavy base. Finally, injuries on the defensive side of the ball for the Buccaneers have opened a path of relative weakness, with the team surrendering a robust 371.3 yards of offense per game through three weeks (27th in the league) against a questionable schedule (Commanders in Jayden Daniels’ first NFL start, Lions, and Broncos in Bo Nix’s third NFL start).
Barkley quickly shed all offseason doubts as to his level of involvement in this offense, commanding a true workhorse role in the process. Barkley ranks second in snap share (87.3%), third in opportunity share (91.4%), second in red-zone opportunities (18), first in rushing yards (351), fourth in routes run and route participation rate (61 and 59.8%, respectively), and first in fantasy points per game (28.1) at the position. And he’s looked really, really good with the workload, forcing 11 missed tackles and surging to 3.51 yards after contact per attempt, with nine carries of 10+ yards and three carries of 15+ yards. After holding teams to 3.8 yards per carry in 2023, the Buccaneers are allowing a robust 4.9 yards per carry, struggling mightily against the Broncos in Week 3 without Vea. Vea returned to a limited practice Wednesday after missing Week 3 with a knee injury, hinting at a potential return against the Eagles. One of the aspects of the offense that has made Barkley so efficient is the unpredictability of Sirianni’s run game, as Barkley has 35 carries behind zone-blocking concepts and 26 carries behind man/gap concepts, the latter of which should be highly effective against the 3-4 base, Cover-3-heavy defensive tendencies of the Bucs. Kenneth Gainwell remains the preferred change-of-pace back over rookie Will Shipley, with the latter playing just four offensive snaps through three games.
We briefly mentioned the fundamental change to the structure of Goedert’s involvement in the offense in Week 3, which was present before the departure of Smith with a concussion. Goedert went from a 4.6-yard aDOT, 16% targets per route run (TPRR), and route structures confined to the short areas of the field as an outlet in the first two weeks to a 6.5-yard aDOT, 28% TPRR, and route structure built to create mismatches in space over the middle of the field in Week 3. A primary example of this change was fewer quick outs and comebacks and a higher rate of crossers, slants, and combination routes like sluggo (slant-and-go) against the Saints. Jahan Dotson began the Week 3 game as a starter opposite Smith while Johnny Wilson was used as Smith’s direct replacement during the game and Parris Campbell operated as the preferred slot receiver. Wilson, Dotson, and Campbell combined for five receptions on six targets, with Goedert (11 targets) and Smith (10 targets prior to departing) handled the bulk of the work, in keeping with the general tendency of Sirianni to keep the offense hyper-concentrated amongst its primary pieces. It will be a challenge for Sirianni to scheme Goedert usage against the zone-heavy, 3-4-heavy Buccaneers defense that has athletic linebackers, but I expect that to be a primary emphasis of the game plan this week.
You must be logged in to view collective notes about a game.
You must be logged in to add notes about a game.