Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- The Ravens enter the home stretch almost fully healthy as they cling to one of the wildcard spots out of the AFC.
- The Giants, on the other hand, had 17 players listed on Thursday as limited or out, most notably QB Drew Lock (DNP, heel/elbow), DL Rakeem Nunex-Roches (DNP, neck/shoulder), LB Bobby Okereke (DNP, back), and OL Jon Runyan (DNP, ankle).
- Expect QB Tommy DeVito to get the start under center for the Giants.
- Giants NT Dexter Lawrence was placed on injured reserve ahead of Week 14.
- This might be one of the most lopsided games in recent memory on paper.
- The Ravens should have every opportunity to control this game environment in whatever way they choose, which should involve hefty doses of Derrick Henry on the ground in what amounts to a must-win game against a far inferior opponent.
How baltimore Will Try To Win ::
The Ravens rank third in scoring and function as one of the most pass-funnel defenses in the league, which has created numerous game environments ripe for fantasy production this season. But in order for game environments involving the Ravens to truly take off, their opponent has to be capable of scoring through the air, which the Giants certainly don’t seem set up to do considering the state of their team right now. That means we might see a game in which Derrick Henry jumps to the forefront of the offensive design, particularly considering the Ravens are coming out of their bye and have had two weeks to prepare for a far inferior opponent in the Giants. The fact that this game is a borderline must-win game for the Ravens as they fight for playoff seeding keeps the range of outcomes regarding how they are likeliest to attack this spot wide, but that should not discount how much of a mismatch they will have in the trenches in this spot.
The Giants have held their own against the run this season, holding opposing backfields to 1.85 yards before contact per attempt. Except that was with a healthy Dexter Lawrence and Rakeem Nunez-Roches on the interior, who stand as two of the top defensive linemen in the game currently. The two both missed the team’s Week 14 loss to the Saints, during which the Saints averaged a paltry 2.8 yards per carry, but the New Orleans offensive line is nowhere near as talented as the one in Baltimore. It should stand to reason that the matchup for King Henry is far better than what the metrics show on paper considering the state of these two teams, and this is still a running back averaging 25.7 DK points in wins this season and 13.5 DK points per game in losses this season. The Ravens are currently instilled as 16-point road favorites, which I don’t know if I ever remember seeing for a road team in the NFL. Finally, Derrick Henry has not seen more than 51% of the offensive snaps in a loss this year while averaging 21.75 opportunities per game in wins.
Through the air, this pass offense is truly “Zay Flowers and then everyone else” as far as snap rate goes, but Mark Andrews continues to garner a robust red zone role and tied for his second highest snap rate of the season in Week 13 with Charlie Kolar lost for the season (his highest snap rate of the season came in the only game missed by Isaiah Likely in Week 10 at 87%). The Giants have been solid against the pass this season and have allowed a touchdown on only 53.85% of opposing red zone trips, but injuries up and down their roster could limit their ability to continue that trend.
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