Game Overview ::
By MIKE JOHNSON >>
- Denver has won three straight home games, averaging over 35 points in those games.
- This game has huge playoff implications for the AFC, as the Broncos are currently the No. 7 seed and the Colts are the first team on the outside looking in, with respect to the playoffs.
- Denver’s second-ranked run defense may force Colts QB Anthony Richardson to prove he can beat them with his arm.
- The Colts’ leading receiver, Josh Downs, is back practicing after a multi-week absence with a shoulder injury.
- The Broncos continue to take a “hot hand” approach to their running back position and have three RBs alternating who leads them on a week-to-week basis.
HOW INDIANAPOLIS WILL TRY TO WIN ::
The Colts still have a fighter’s chance of making the playoffs, but that will be gone if they lose this week to the Broncos. Indianapolis is two games behind Denver for the last spot in the AFC and two games behind the Texans in the AFC South, although they lost both matchups to Houston so they are effectively three games back in the division. This matchup is very tough for them, as the Colts face a Denver defense that matches up well against their strengths and can potentially expose their weaknesses.
The Colts are 29th in the NFL in Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE) for the season and they are 31st in PROE over the last four games and have basically been the most run-heavy team in the league with their second-year QB, Richardson, under center. Their running game primarily features Jonathan Taylor, who has been solid this season while averaging 4.8 yards per carry, but who has struggled recently and has averaged under four yards per carry in four of the last five games. The previously dominant Colts line has taken a big step back this season, ranking dead last in the league in adjusted line yards per rush attempt. Not a great sign of things to come against a Broncos defense ranked second in run defense DVOA and sixth in adjusted line yards per rush attempt allowed. Richardson’s mobility is being utilized at a high level, as he’s averaged 10 rushing attempts per game over his last five starts, including at least nine in each of his three outings since returning to the starting lineup.
The Colts are likely to have tough sledding through the air as well against a Broncos secondary that is ranked fifth in PFF coverage grade and is led by All-Pro CB Patrick Surtain II. Denver ranks fifth in the NFL in man coverage rate and fourth in blitz rate. Downs is expected to return from a multi-week absence due to a shoulder injury, and his return is exactly what this offense needs. Downs runs a high percentage of his routes from the slot and is very good against man coverage. The Colts will need to get the ball out quickly and target the middle of the field with “layup” throws for Richardson to negate a ferocious Broncos pass rush.
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