XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Oooh baby, Week 15 starts with a bang as the Rams visit the 49ers for a 49-point total game with San Francisco favored by 2.5. The Rams main offensive pieces are back to health and they’re coming off of a 44-42 upset against the Bills, while the 49ers have (FINALLY) gotten their red zone offense back in gear and scored 30 points last week for the first time since Week 8. It should be a fun one.

Los Angeles

On the Rams side, we know the deal by this point in the season: Kyren Williams has one of the safest and biggest workloads of any running back in the NFL. He’s coming off a whopping 31 touch game against Buffalo, and that kind of workload plus a short week makes me at least a little bit cautious that they might hold him back a bit and work in Blake Corum more…but then again, this is a critical game. I think the Rams will do what it takes to win. Another note of caution: Kyren’s passing game volume has been extremely sporadic this year. He’s averaging only about 2.5 targets per game with three games of 5+ targets, and that means that while his rushing workload is immense, there’s more game script risk here than we’d like to see for a $10k running back. The TL;DR here is that I think Kyren is fine but a touch below the other highest-end options in this one. Behind him, Corum has two games in a row of 8 carries, giving him at least the faintest whisper of RB2 appeal. He’ll probably still need a touchdown or for Kyren to get hurt, but if you want to play into the idea of “maybe the Rams take it a bit easy on Kyren with the short turnaround,” he’s a likely low-owned tournament piece.

Showdown Ownership Projections!

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In the passing game, the Rams have been kind of widening their receiving corps of late as six different wide receivers have played offensive snaps in four of the last five games. The main guys are still Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp, and Demarcus Robinson, of course, but we’re seeing more of Tutu Atwell mixing in (primarily eating away at Robinson’s role) and then Tyler Johnson and Jordan Whittington are both still getting snaps. This really just introduces a bit more volatility to the roles here – primarily Robinson’s – and gives us more tourney punt plays (what fun). Puka and Kupp are the primary weapons here and in their last five games (when Puka returned to a full-time role after his early-season injury), out of 163 Matt Stafford pass attempts, Puka has 58 targets and Kupp has 42 – good for a 61.3% target share between the two of them. That’s insane, and it also leaves little room for other guys to thrive in this offense absent some kind of big play and/or touchdown as there just isn’t much other volume to go around. Both Puka and Kupp are strong options, but even at $1k more, I still have a slight lean toward Puka’s way as we’re just seeing him separate from Kupp as the season goes on. He’s leading in volume but also materially in average yards per reception at 13.1 vs. 10.4, and maybe I’ve been a little late jumping onto this train, but it does look like this is becoming more of a 1A/1B situation instead of an even split. Robinson missed a bit of time last game but returned, so I assume he’s going to play through the injury this week given that he played through it on Sunday. He’s the least bad of the other options just because he’s on the field the most. 

Everyone else is a punt play, including the tight ends who are now in a 3-way split between Colby Parkinson, Davis Allen, and Hunter Long. Of all of these punt options, my favorites are Atwell and Parkinson, because both have more significant per-target upside than the rest of the crew (and it looks like Atwell’s role has been nudging upwards a bit of late), so they’re a bit less “wing and a prayer” punts and more “risky tourney options.” As for the rest, good luck – it’s awfully hard to project more than 1-2 targets for any of them, but they can be included in player pools. 

San Francisco

Game Overview ::

By HILOW >>

• The Cowboys held a walkthrough on Wednesday after playing on Monday night.
• Cowboys LB DeMarvion Overshown (knee) was estimated as a non-participant after injuring his knee in Week 14. The same holds true for S Juanyeh Thomas (knee) and LB Nick Vigil (foot).
• The Panthers appear relatively healthy outside of the torn ACL suffered by RB Jonathon Brooks in the same knee he hurt in college, a terrible runout for the promising rookie.
• These two teams rank 31^st (Dallas) and 32^nd (Carolina) in points allowed per game.
• Cowboys RB Rico Dowdle has averaged a 70% snap rate while seeing 20 running back opportunities or more over the previous three games.
• The Panthers continue to struggle against the run, allowing the fifth-most yards before contact per attempt (2.46), the most rush yards per game (170.1), and the most fantasy points per game (27.0) to opposing backfields this season.

HOW DALLAS WILL TRY TO WIN ::

The Cowboys have floundered well below expectations this season, sitting at a 5-8 record after a catastrophic loss to the Bengals on Monday night. They have allowed the second-most points per game this season, although Week 14 was the first time all season they had all three starting cornerbacks. After going undefeated during the regular season at home over the previous two years, they are only 1-6 in the unfriendly confines of Jerruh World in 2024. Dak Prescott was lost for the season, alpha wide receiver CeeDee Lamb has been playing through a painful AC joint injury, and they have largely been unable to run the football effectively until three weeks ago. But the last three weeks has seen them at least competitive, beating the Commanders and Giants while losing to the Bengals in spectacular fashion after blocking a punt with under two minutes to play, only to have a defender touch the ball beyond the line of scrimmage and see the Bengals recover in a then-tied game.

Through Week 11, “lead back” Dowdle played over 52% of the offensive snaps only once, a game in which Ezekiel Elliott missed due to team discipline. Over the last three games, Dowdle has been given a true lead-back/borderline workhorse role, during which time he has averaged 70% of the offensive snaps while seeing 20 or more running back opportunities in every game. That newfound workload is meaningful considering the Panthers have allowed the fifth-most yards before contact per attempt (2.46), the most rush yards per game (170.1), and the most fantasy points per game (27.0) to opposing backfields this season. Zeke has played fewer than 10 offensive snaps in consecutive games while ceding passing downs to fullback Hunter Luepke.

Lamb has looked extremely uncomfortable during the previous two games, during which time he has seen just six and seven targets. What leads me to believe his injury is hindering his ability to play at a high level is the fact that he took himself out of both games after hard hits and quarterback Cooper Rush attempted 36 and 31 passes in those two games. Rush targeted a whopping 11 pass catchers against the Bengals and five of Lamb’s seven targets came on the first two drives before being tackled hard on his injured shoulder on the team’s second possession. Jalen Tolbert and Brandin Cooks operate in complementary roles, while Jake Ferguson returned in Week 14 to reclaim his featured tight-end role, shifting Luke Schoonmaker back into a complementary role. In their Week 14 loss to the Bengals, only Lamb and Ferguson played more than 65% of the offensive snaps as the team continues to look for ways to get the ball into KaVontae Turpin’s hands and force recent acquisition Jonathan Mingo into being a thing to save face after a boneheaded midseason trade.

How CAROLINA Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By HILOW >>

• Kansas City’s injury report is rather clean heading into Week 15, with only OT D.J. Humphries listed as a non-participant on Wednesday.
• OG Joel Bitonio (back), DE Myles Garrett (personal), and TE David Njoku (hamstring) did not practice for the Browns on Wednesday. All three situations are key ones to monitor as primary contributors for the Browns.
• Browns WR Cedric Tillman (concussion) managed a limited practice Wednesday after missing the previous two games. I expect him to return as long as he can log a full session on Thursday or Friday.
• The Chiefs have a whopping five wins by three points or less with a ridiculous 10 of 12 wins coming in one-possession games this season.
• This game provides a clear path for our DFS consideration – covered below.
• These two teams rank first (Browns) and seventh (Chiefs) in pass attempts per game and second (Chiefs) and eighth (Browns) in pass rate over expectation (PROE).

HOW KANSAS CITY WILL TRY TO WIN ::

The Chiefs stand at a sparkling 12-1 record and are in the driver’s seat for the only bye out of the AFC. Even though the team has just one loss this season, they have a whopping five wins by three points or less with a ridiculous 10 of 12 wins coming in one-possession games. That should highlight how this team is trying to win games this season, leveraging an above-average defense to grind out wins as opposed to keeping their feet on the gas from the jump. The offense has also not looked like its dominant self this year, which makes sense considering the multitude of injuries and changes they’ve experienced in 2024. Either way, they still have one of the most clutch quarterbacks to ever play the game in Patrick Mahomes, a player that always seems to make a play when it matters most.

Lead back Isiah Pacheco saw his snap rate jump from 37% to 46% in his second game back from injury in Week 14, handling 18 running back opportunities in the process (more than double the eight he saw in his first game back in Week 13). It is safe to assume his role will continue to grow as the Chiefs ramp up for yet another playoff run, but we can’t be certain when the massive jump will come (Pacheco saw an 80% snap rate in his only fully healthy game in Week 1 but the team also added Kareem Hunt following his injury). I would expect Pacheco to eventually find himself in the 60-65% snap rate range, pending how his injury responds to the increase in workload. Kareem Hunt continues to handle change-of-pace duties while Samaje Perine handles clear passing situations and the two-minute offense, with neither expected to see enough volume to matter for DFS in a standard week. The Browns have surrendered 2.12 yards before contact per attempt (22^nd), 127.9 rush yards per game (22^nd), and 17.9 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields (ninth) this season.

DeAndre Hopkins has yet to play more than 65% of the offensive snaps through seven games with the Chiefs and now has a healthy JuJu Smith-Schuster to share in the primary role in this offense. Rookie Xavier Worthy leads the team in snaps this season but has seen target counts between four and seven over the previous five games. Worthy’s per-touch upside gives him a theoretical ceiling he has not realized since Week 1. Smith-Schuster has not seen more than two targets since returning from injury in Week 11. Tight end Travis Kelce always has a path to double-digit targets, but his role in this offense has left a lot to be desired on the backs of a career-low 6.6-yard aDOT. The Browns have been victimized by explosive plays through the air this season, which plays more into Hopkins and Worthy’s game than it does to Kelce’s. Even with a rather unconcentrated offense, the Chiefs rank second in PROE and average 35.7 pass attempts per game, seventh in the league.

How CLEVELAND Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>

• The Texans have two players yet to practice, as of Thursday: S Jalen Pitre (shoulder) and C/OG Juice Scruggs (foot).
• Dolphins OTs Terron Armstead (knee) and Kendall Lamm (back), and WRs Odell Beckham Jr. (personal) and Dee Eskridge (knee) have yet to practice, as of Thursday.
• Since Tua Tagovailoa returned in Week 8, the Dolphins rank third in pass rate over expectation (PROE), while attempting 36 or more passes in five of seven games.
• Week 14 proved that Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle still exist and are still elite, with Hill seeing 14 targets and Waddle taking advantage of increased two-high rates from the Jets on his way to 12 looks.
• This is a must-win game for the Dolphins, who are currently two games out of the AFC playoff picture, while the Texans need to string together some wins or they’re looking at a home playoff game against the Ravens. Playoff implications are high here.
• Both of these teams rank top 10 in pass attempts per game.

How miami Will Try To Win ::

After scoring 32 points against the Jets in Week 14, the Dolphins have now scored 27 points or more in five of seven games following the return of Tua Tagovailoa from his most recent concussion, scoring 32 points or more in three of their previous four games (failing to do so against the Packers on a frigid night at Lambeau on Thanksgiving, and scoring 23 points in a Week 10 win over the Rams). Tua has also passed for multiple touchdowns in five of his previous six games (failed to do so against the Rams in Week 10) and in each of his previous four times out. And since Tua returned in Week 8, the Dolphins rank third in PROE while attempting 36 or more passes in five of seven games, with 40 or more in each of the previous three games. It is clear how this offense has adjusted during the second half of the season, with a heavier emphasis on early-down passing, quick hits through the air as an extension of the run, and a more aggressive aerial approach in general.

The matchup also should tilt the Dolphins more to the air against a Houston defense that allows just 1.49 yards before contact per attempt, 4.4 yards per carry, and the fifth fewest fantasy points per game to opposing backfields (16.2). That would significantly dent the fantasy expectation of most backfields in the league but the robust pass game role for De’Von Achane keeps his floor and ceiling intact. Achane has played 69% or more of the team’s offensive snaps in four of his previous six games, peaking at a robust 83% in Week 14 with Raheem Mostert inactive. Mostert was limited in both practices so far this week after missing last week’s game, leaving the door open for a return to the active game-day roster. With that increased pass game role for Achane has come an immense floor after he has scored 20.5 DK points or more in five of his previous eight games while seeing seven or more targets in four of his previous seven. While the floor is tangible, we’ve also seen Achane hit a 4x salary multiplier in his Week 14 salary only twice this year.

Week 14 proved that this pass offense can beat teams in many different ways, something we had neglected for the previous three weeks with the team focusing heavily on short area passing and YAC generation through Achane and tight end Jonnu Smith. Jaylen Waddle took advantage of a Jets secondary playing two-high at increased rates while Tyreek Hill saw a whopping 14 targets, his first time seeing double-digit looks since Week 5 and only his third time doing so this season. But they’re still there and they are both still highly capable pass-catchers in this league. Given their recent offensive success and their recent pass-heavy ways, we should be treating this offense as a “who is likeliest to succeed” proposition as opposed to a “will this offense succeed” one as it is both voluminous and highly concentrated amongst Hill, Waddle, Smith, and Achane. The Texans are near the middle of the pack in two-high utilization but have played the third most quarters/Cover-4 this season, the alignment Waddle has proven most successful against in his career. All four primary pass-catchers are viable in this spot.

How houston Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By papy324 >>

• The notable injuries for the Jets are Breece Hall (DNP) with a knee, OG Alijah Vera-Tucker (DNP) with an ankle, OT Morgan Moses (LP) with a wrist, and CB D.J. Reed (LP) with a groin.
• The most notable injury for the Jags is Evan Engram (DNP) with a shoulder issue.
• Aaron Rodgers is generously priced and draws the weakest secondary in the league.
• Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis split the backfield down the middle last week, both getting 16 opportunities.
• Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams accounted for 66% of Rodgers’ passing yards last week.
• Mac Jones has scored under 10 DK points in three out of four of his starts.
• Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby have split snaps evenly over the past two weeks.
• Brian Thomas Jr. looks like he’ll be a star, but he gets a tough matchup with a sup-par QB.

How new york Will Try To Win ::

The 3-10 Jets come into Week 15 having been mathematically eliminated from the playoffs for the 11^th straight season. The longest playoff drought in the NFL continues and the Jets season ranks among the most disappointing in the league. After going all in to try and reach the Superbowl behind Aaron Rodgers, the Jets have barely been able to win a game. What went wrong? It’s hard to pinpoint a single issue, but the most obvious problem is their 1-7 record in one-score games. The Jets have a negative 49-point differential, whereas for comparison the other five teams with a 3-10 record have a negative 155 // 115 // 107 // 103 // 86-point differential. The truth of the NFL is that most of the teams are relatively evenly matched. Each team’s record is a bounce of the ball, a play here, a yard there, away from being different. That’s not to say the Jets have played well but it does keep in perspective that they probably aren’t as bad as their 3-10 record. There is a lot of talent on both sides of the ball on the Jets roster, and even Rodgers (who hasn’t played to his usual standard) is still on pace to throw for well over 3,000 yards, with a respectable TD:INT ratio. If you take out the five picks Rodgers threw against the Vikings/Steelers, which are the two best defenses in the league, his numbers look even better. Rodgers and the Jets haven’t lived up to expectations but they also aren’t as far away as most people think.

Nathaniel “can’t” Hackett is officially the Jets offensive coordinator. Another nepotism coach, Hackett isn’t very good at his job but he is close friends with Rodgers, and the Jets fired Robert Saleh for suggesting the team move on from Rodgers’ buddy. Despite that, the organization acknowledged that Hackett stinks and turned over play-calling duties to QB coach Todd Downing. It’s unclear what exactly Hackett does, we can only assume he whispers sweet nothings into Rodgers ear in the huddle. The Jets play at a below-average pace (19^th in seconds per play), which is quick for how Rodgers-led teams have historically operated. They probably want to play slower but when you’re always losing it’s tough to chew the clock. The Jets have been leaning into the pass (4^th in PROE) but their PROE value is still only a positive 2%, which wouldn’t have ranked in the top five in any of the past three seasons. The Jets revamped their offense line in the off-season, but they’ve been stung by injuries that have caused them to underperform (16^th ranked by PPF), and RT Morgan Moses exited with an injury midway through last week’s game. Fortunately, they’re playing the Jags lackluster pass rush (30^th in sack percentage). Speaking of the Jags defense, it has been the worst in the league (32^nd ranked overall in DVOA). They are below average against the run (18^th in DVOA) and have been smashed by the pass (32^nd in DVOA). It makes sense to throw against the Jags, and the Jets have been favoring the pass so unless someone lets Hackett call the plays again, it’s reasonable to assume the Jets will come out throwing. Expect a pass-heavy game plan, with the Jets looking to salvage something from a lost season.

How jacksonville Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By HILOW >>

• The Commanders currently occupy the seventh and final playoff spot out of the NFC but are just a half-game up on the surging Rams following Los Angeles’ win over the 49ers on Thursday night.
• Commanders WR Noah Brown (kidney) has yet to practice this week as he reportedly sustained a “serious internal injury,” likely ending his season. The team signed K.J. Osborn away from the Patriots earlier this week.
• The Saints’ injury woes continue to grow as quarterback Derek Carr (left hand/concussion) and RB Alvin Kamara (illness) both have failed to practice this week.
• The Saints indicated earlier this week that it will be veteran journeyman Jake Haener that starts under center over rookie Spencer Rattler if Carr can’t go. Rattler struggled mightily earlier in the season when given a three-game stint as the starter, eventually benched in the second half of his final start in favor of Haener.

HOW WASHINGTON WILL TRY TO WIN ::

The Commanders have slipped over the last month of the season, losing three straight to the Steelers, Eagles, and Cowboys before blowing out the Titans in Week 13 before their bye. They emerge from their bye with just a half-game lead over the Rams in the NFC playoff race following Los Angeles’ win over the 49ers on Thursday night. Even through a low aDOT offense, no true WR2 for large stretches of the season, and injuries to their running backs, the Commanders rank fourth in points per game at 28.9 (only the Lions, Bills, and Ravens have scored more points this season, which speaks volumes to how this team has performed). They are now likely to be without their RB2 in Austin Ekeler and WR2 in Noah Brown, claiming K.J. Osborn off waivers after he was let go by the Patriots to bolster their pass-catching corps as they make the final push to the playoffs. From a structural standpoint, no other wide receiver on the roster is capable of doing the things that Brown did for this offense.

In the first game without Ekeler in Week 13, the Commanders utilized three backs, with lead back Brian Robinson seeing a lowly 47% snap rate. I don’t know how much we can read into the usage splits considering the Commanders were leading 21-0 in the first quarter and coasted to a blowout win, but it’s at least notable that the team used Jeremy McNichols to spell Robinson on their second possession of the game. Those are important uncertainties to work through, as the matchup on the ground is pristine against a Saints defense allowing the second-most yards before contact per attempt (2.57), 4.4 yards per carry, and the sixth-most fantasy points per game to opposing backfields this season (22.6).

With Brown sidelined, I expect Dyami Brown, Olamide Zaccheaus, and Luke McCaffrey to share the remaining wide receiver snaps behind Terry McLaurin, with the offense likely to utilize elevated rates of 12-personnel through tight ends Zach Ertz, John Bates, and Ben Sinnott. I wouldn’t expect Osborn to be involved much after being acquired this week. That essentially leaves the offense as “Terry McLaurin and then everyone else,” with Ertz the likeliest to finish second in receiving the rest of the way. The Saints have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers, but we shouldn’t expect a ton of volume from the Commanders if they are controlling the game environment, as is the likeliest scenario here. For example, quarterback Jayden Daniels attempted just 30 passes in the blowout win last week, 25 passes in a blowout win over the Browns in Week 5, and 30 passes in a blowout win over the Cardinals in Week 4.

How new orleans Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• The Ravens enter the home stretch almost fully healthy as they cling to one of the wildcard spots out of the AFC.
• The Giants, on the other hand, had 17 players listed on Thursday as limited or out, most notably QB Drew Lock (DNP, heel/elbow), DL Rakeem Nunex-Roches (DNP, neck/shoulder), LB Bobby Okereke (DNP, back), and OL Jon Runyan (DNP, ankle).
• Expect QB Tommy DeVito to get the start under center for the Giants.
• Giants NT Dexter Lawrence was placed on injured reserve ahead of Week 14.
• This might be one of the most lopsided games in recent memory on paper.
• The Ravens should have every opportunity to control this game environment in whatever way they choose, which should involve hefty doses of Derrick Henry on the ground in what amounts to a must-win game against a far inferior opponent.

How baltimore Will Try To Win ::

The Ravens rank third in scoring and function as one of the most pass-funnel defenses in the league, which has created numerous game environments ripe for fantasy production this season. But in order for game environments involving the Ravens to truly take off, their opponent has to be capable of scoring through the air, which the Giants certainly don’t seem set up to do considering the state of their team right now. That means we might see a game in which Derrick Henry jumps to the forefront of the offensive design, particularly considering the Ravens are coming out of their bye and have had two weeks to prepare for a far inferior opponent in the Giants. The fact that this game is a borderline must-win game for the Ravens as they fight for playoff seeding keeps the range of outcomes regarding how they are likeliest to attack this spot wide, but that should not discount how much of a mismatch they will have in the trenches in this spot.

The Giants have held their own against the run this season, holding opposing backfields to 1.85 yards before contact per attempt. Except that was with a healthy Dexter Lawrence and Rakeem Nunez-Roches on the interior, who stand as two of the top defensive linemen in the game currently. The two both missed the team’s Week 14 loss to the Saints, during which the Saints averaged a paltry 2.8 yards per carry, but the New Orleans offensive line is nowhere near as talented as the one in Baltimore. It should stand to reason that the matchup for King Henry is far better than what the metrics show on paper considering the state of these two teams, and this is still a running back averaging 25.7 DK points in wins this season and 13.5 DK points per game in losses this season. The Ravens are currently instilled as 16-point road favorites, which I don’t know if I ever remember seeing for a road team in the NFL. Finally, Derrick Henry has not seen more than 51% of the offensive snaps in a loss this year while averaging 21.75 opportunities per game in wins.

Through the air, this pass offense is truly “Zay Flowers and then everyone else” as far as snap rate goes, but Mark Andrews continues to garner a robust red zone role and tied for his second highest snap rate of the season in Week 13 with Charlie Kolar lost for the season (his highest snap rate of the season came in the only game missed by Isaiah Likely in Week 10 at 87%). The Giants have been solid against the pass this season and have allowed a touchdown on only 53.85% of opposing red zone trips, but injuries up and down their roster could limit their ability to continue that trend.

How new york Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By HILOW >>

• Bengals OT Orlando Brown (fibula) and DT Sheldon Rankins (illness) continue to miss practice this week after missing the previous three games.
• Titans RB Tony Pollard (ankle) has yet to practice this week, as of Thursday.
• The Bengals lead the league in pass rate over expectation (PROE) and are third in pass attempts per game (37.7), while the Titans have allowed the fewest pass yards per game this season.
• Ja’Marr Chase holds a 38.1% air-yards share, 0.28 targets per route run, 766 yards, a 35.6% first-read target rate, and a robust 0.85 fantasy points per route run against Cover-3 and Cover-4 this season, which the Titans play at an almost 60% combined rate this year.
• Chase Brown has averaged 24.4 opportunities per game, 6.8 per game of which have been targets, while scoring 19.0 DK points or more in all five games since Zack Moss was lost with a neck injury.

HOW cincinnati WILL TRY TO WIN ::

The blueprint is clear for the Bengals: Hefty pass rates, workhorse back utilization, and an 11-personnel base, creating a breeding ground for top-tier game environments in the process. While not mathematically eliminated from playoff contention, the Bengals are currently three games back from a playoff spot with just four games remaining, clearly needing a win against the Titans in Week 15. Three one-possession losses before their wild Week 14 win over the Cowboys have put their backs against the wall for the 2024 season, with this team now likely in prove-it mode for the future as a decision on what to do with some of their primary pieces looms large this coming offseason. To that end, head coach Zac Taylor seems to be auditioning his team to de facto general manager Duke Tobin, with the goal to retain his position into 2025 and to retain his primary skill-position players with wide receiver Tee Higgins playing on yet another franchise tag this year.

Brown has become a true workhorse back since Moss was lost for the year with a scary neck injury, playing 80% or more of the team’s offensive snaps in five consecutive games while averaging 24.4 opportunities per game, with a robust 6.8 of those per game coming via targets. He has also scored a touchdown in all but one of the previous five games, leading to a floor during that span of 19.0 DK points while averaging 23.14 DK points per game. While the Titans have functioned as a clear run-funnel unit, rookie nose tackle T’Vondre Sweat has come on as the season has progressed and is playing like one of the top nose tackles in the league. On the season, the Titans have allowed 1.77 yards before contact per attempt, 4.1 yards per carry (eighth), and 20.7 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields (16^th).

The meat and potatoes of this offense is the pass game, with quarterback Joe Burrow playing some of the best football of his storied career. Alpha wide receiver Chase currently ranks as fantasy’s top wide receiver, by a metric mile. His 317.4 PPR points this season are a ridiculous 35% more than the overall WR2, Justin Jefferson, returning 20 PPR points or more in seven of 13 games while going over 40 fantasy points a ridiculous three times already this year. Higgins has two games over 29 DK points in eight healthy games and has seen double-digit targets four times, returning a 4x salary multiplier at a 25% clip. 

A new development of late is an increase to the team’s 12-personnel rates out of their Week 12 bye, playing from 12 at a 41% clip in each of their two games post- bye. Those snaps have come at the expense of slot wide receiver Andrei Iosivas, who has made some big plays this season but largely failed to capitalize on the vacated role left behind via the departure of Tyler Boyd this offseason, particularly failing to separate at a meaningful frequency. The Titans rank first in pass yards allowed per game and third in yards allowed per pass attempt, utilizing Cover-4 at the highest rate in the league while mixing in average rates of Cover-3. Chase understandably leads the team in all metrics against Cover-3 and Cover-4 this season, amassing a 38.1% air-yards share, 0.28 targets per route run, 766 yards, a 35.6% first-read target rate, and a robust 0.85 fantasy points per route run against those primary coverages this year. That’s important here, as the Titans are in those coverages almost 60% of the time in 2024.

How tennessee Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By MIKE JOHNSON >>

• Cardinals rookie WR Marvin Harrison Jr. averaged six targets per game in their first 10 games, but he’s averaged nine targets per game since the Week 11 bye.
• Arizona has lost three straight games since its bye to fall two games out of first place in the division.
• New England’s defense has been uncharacteristically bad this season and Arizona has beaten up on weaker opponents – specifically at home.
• Patriots rookie QB Drake Maye has scored 18 or more fantasy points in five of his eight starts.

HOW new england WILL TRY TO WIN ::

The Patriots have been effectively eliminated from the playoffs for several weeks, but their objective this season is to do everything they can to evaluate and improve their prized rookie Maye. The Patriots lost a heartbreaker to the Colts in Week 13 prior to their bye and now have four games left to see if they can end the season on a strong note. New England is one of six NFL teams with a 3-10 record (so much for parity, huh?), but since they already have their QB, they are much less likely to hang it up down the stretch than the others. 

It seems like most people are not appreciating just how good Maye has been this season. His offensive line is arguably the worst in the league, ranking 32nd in PFF run-blocking grade and 31st in PFF pass-blocking grade. They allow the eighth-highest pressure rate in the league and have the sixth-worst adjusted line yards per rush attempt among all NFL teams. The line is an issue that is exaggerated by the fact that the Patriots’ receivers rank 30th in PFF receiving grade and they have two players (Kendrick Bourne and Ja’Lynn Polk) in the top six of all NFL WRs in drop rate. Their snap leader at the position is second year wideout Kayshon Boutte, who ranks second to last in the NFL in separation, per NFL’s Next Gen Stats. All of that leads to a situation where Maye is forced to target slot WR DeMario Douglas along with his tight ends and running backs at a high rate. This week should be no different against a Cardinals team that plays a high rate of zone coverage and faces the sixth-lowest average depth of target (aDOT) among all NFL defenses. The Cardinals have a good run defense although they were shredded by the Seahawks last week, and they should be able to make things tough for the Patriots on the ground. New England ranks in the middle of the league in pass rate over expectation (PROE), so while they are likely to start this game playing conservatively, that should still mean a good balance between run and pass with the passing game focused on the short and intermediate middle of the field.

How arizona Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By MIKE JOHNSON >>

• Denver has won three straight home games, averaging over 35 points in those games.
• This game has huge playoff implications for the AFC, as the Broncos are currently the No. 7 seed and the Colts are the first team on the outside looking in, with respect to the playoffs.
• Denver’s second-ranked run defense may force Colts QB Anthony Richardson to prove he can beat them with his arm.
• The Colts’ leading receiver, Josh Downs, is back practicing after a multi-week absence with a shoulder injury.
• The Broncos continue to take a “hot hand” approach to their running back position and have three RBs alternating who leads them on a week-to-week basis.

HOW INDIANAPOLIS WILL TRY TO WIN ::

The Colts still have a fighter’s chance of making the playoffs, but that will be gone if they lose this week to the Broncos. Indianapolis is two games behind Denver for the last spot in the AFC and two games behind the Texans in the AFC South, although they lost both matchups to Houston so they are effectively three games back in the division. This matchup is very tough for them, as the Colts face a Denver defense that matches up well against their strengths and can potentially expose their weaknesses.

The Colts are 29th in the NFL in Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE) for the season and they are 31st in PROE over the last four games and have basically been the most run-heavy team in the league with their second-year QB, Richardson, under center. Their running game primarily features Jonathan Taylor, who has been solid this season while averaging 4.8 yards per carry, but who has struggled recently and has averaged under four yards per carry in four of the last five games. The previously dominant Colts line has taken a big step back this season, ranking dead last in the league in adjusted line yards per rush attempt. Not a great sign of things to come against a Broncos defense ranked second in run defense DVOA and sixth in adjusted line yards per rush attempt allowed. Richardson’s mobility is being utilized at a high level, as he’s averaged 10 rushing attempts per game over his last five starts, including at least nine in each of his three outings since returning to the starting lineup.

The Colts are likely to have tough sledding through the air as well against a Broncos secondary that is ranked fifth in PFF coverage grade and is led by All-Pro CB Patrick Surtain II. Denver ranks fifth in the NFL in man coverage rate and fourth in blitz rate. Downs is expected to return from a multi-week absence due to a shoulder injury, and his return is exactly what this offense needs. Downs runs a high percentage of his routes from the slot and is very good against man coverage. The Colts will need to get the ball out quickly and target the middle of the field with “layup” throws for Richardson to negate a ferocious Broncos pass rush.

How denver Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>

• Josh Allen is coming off a record setting performance with 3 passing touchdowns and 3 rushing touchdowns against the Rams. Allen is the current betting favorite for NFL MVP.
• This game has huge playoff implications for both conferences, as the Bills chase the Chiefs and the Lions try to hold off the Eagles.
• Detroit has 10 days of rest leading into this game, after playing on consecutive Thursdays.
• Buffalo has scored 30+ points in seven straight games, while Detroit has scored over 40 points four times.
• Detroit’s offensive line should be able to get a strong push in the running game against the “light” personnel the Bills use on defense.

How buffalo Will Try To Win ::

Buffalo has an outside chance at the #1 seed in the AFC if they can win this game, as their last three games are against teams with losing records while the conference leading Chiefs travel to Cleveland this week and then face three playoff teams to end their season. Buffalo owns the tiebreaker against the Chiefs thanks to their head-to-head matchup, so if they can win out and Kansas City stumbles they could force the AFC to go through Buffalo in January. The Bills lost a wild one last week against the Rams as their defense was shredded by Sean McVay and the Rams with clever play calling and motion concepts that exposed the Bills weaknesses and some star players making star plays and breaking tackles.

The Bills defense has been very, very good for much of the season. That has allowed Buffalo to cut back their pass rate and play relatively conservatively in comparison to past seasons as they protect the ball and bludgeon weaker opponents. All-world QB Josh Allen had only one 300-yard passing game prior to Week 14 as Buffalo simply hadn’t seen the same type of game scripts this year that were common for them throughout his career in the past. However, their defense is beatable and has deficiencies. A deeper dive into Buffalo’s schedule reveals that the Bills have played three games where:

1. They were facing a team with talented skill players.
2. The weather was good.
3. Their opponent has a creative and respected play caller who runs concepts that can confuse the Bills defense.

The games that fit that criteria for me were against the Ravens, Dolphins (second time with Tua), and Rams. Those offenses, coincidentally, had the three highest point totals of the season against the Bills defense with 35, 27, and 44, respectively. 

This is relevant this week because of the opponent that the Bills face and what that likely does to their approach early in the game and as things start to heat up. Detroit’s offense is terrific and can pound teams with the run while also creating explosive plays, their play caller is one of the best in the league, and they are playing in a dome. The Bills have a negative PROE for the first season in the Josh Allen era, but in a game where they are likely to enter knowing they need to score points and lacking trust in their defense, we should expect them to open things up. Detroit’s defense faces the 3rd highest opponent pass rate in the league as their stout run defense tends to make teams one-dimensional. Buffalo gets back rookie WR Keon Coleman and second year TE Dalton Kincaid, so they have all their weapons and should enter with an aggressive mindset. Detroit plays a high rate of man coverage and while they are good at getting pressure, Allen is great at keeping plays alive and finding WRs downfield. Buffalo’s perimeter WRs (Coleman, Amari Cooper, and Mack Hollins) should have some opportunities for big plays in this one. This is Josh Allen’s world, and we’re all just living in it.

How detroit Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>

• Tampa Bay’s defense faces the second-highest number of pass attempts per game in the league and Los Angeles has struggled to run the ball without J.K. Dobbins.
• This game has huge playoff implications for both teams, as Tampa tries to hold onto their division lead over the Falcons and the Chargers look to secure a playoff berth.
• A total of 10 of 13 Chargers games this season have had under 40 points scored, while 10 of 13 Bucs games have had more than 40 points scored.
• Chargers rookie WR Ladd McConkey, their leading receiver, is expected to return this week after missing Week 14 with a knee injury.

How tampa bay Will Try To Win ::

The Bucs are in control of the division and their destiny as they have a one game lead over the Falcons, but they are working with a short leash due to the fact that they lost both head-to-head matchups. This is the toughest remaining on-paper matchup for the Bucs, as their remaining schedule features the Cowboys, Panthers, and Saints. Tampa has been very good on the road this season and has yet to lose a road game in regulation. 

Tampa Bay’s offense is known for their passing game thanks to the resurgence of QB Baker Mayfield’s career and their elite WR duo of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. They lost Godwin for the year with an ankle injury several weeks ago and their running game has been critical to keeping them afloat ever since. The Bucs rank 7th in the NFL in rushing offense DVOA while their offensive line has been terrific with the 3rd highest adjusted line yards per rush attempt in the league. They have a stable of running backs who are highly capable in rookie Bucky Irving, veteran Rachaad White, and talented backup Sean Tucker. Irving has now come out of consecutive games with new injuries since the Bucs increased his role and he was unable to finish last week’s win against the Raiders. He has yet to practice this week and his status for this matchup is highly in doubt. If he is out, we can expect White and Tucker to form a relatively split backfield and have a strong chance of success against a Chargers defense that has been much weaker against the run than the pass this season. 

Even with a strong emphasis on the running game and likely success doing so, the Bucs passing game will be critical to their sustained offensive success and ability to turn long drives into scores. Veteran WR Sterling Shepard seems likely to miss this game, which should increase the role of trusted TE Cade Otton in the short to intermediate areas of the field. The Chargers rank 3rd in PFF coverage grade and play zone coverage at a top-5 rate in the league. Mike Evans is capable of making contested catches and that skill will likely be necessary against a strong coverage unit that is unlikely to give him much separation, especially with limited options around him. Otton and Evans are likely to be the focal points of the Bucs passing game, but rookie WR Jalen McMillan is coming off the best game of his career and, along with the RBs, will have to step up if the Bucs want to consistently move the football. Tampa’s PROE for the season is slightly above average and ranks top-10 in the league, but we may see them take a more run-balanced approach this week due to the matchup and dwindling weapons in the receiving game.

How los angeles Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By MIKE JOHNSON >>

• Eagles QB Jalen Hurts has attempted more than 25 passes only once since their Week 5 bye.
• Pittsburgh has held 10 of 13 opponents to 20 points or less, while Philadelphia has held eight of nine opponents to 20 points or less since its Week 5 bye.
• Eagles RB Saquon Barkley set the single-season franchise rushing record last week with four games to play.
• Steelers WR George Pickens has an “outside chance” to play this week due to a hamstring injury that held him out of Week 14.
• The Steelers have an incredibly difficult schedule coming up, as they play the Eagles, Ravens, and Chiefs in an 11-day span.

HOW PITTSBURGH WILL TRY TO WIN ::

The Steelers were able to grind out a convincing win over the Browns in Week 14 to extend their lead within the division to two full games. Their journey is just getting started, however, as they face a gauntlet over the next week and a half beginning with the Eagles. Next Saturday they will travel to Baltimore to face the Ravens (who should be well rested after dusting up the Giants this week) and then play on the following Wednesday (Christmas) when they host the conference-leading Chiefs. The Steelers have a wide range of outcomes available to them, as they could end up anywhere from the No. 1 seed to the No. 7 seed depending on how these next couple of weeks go.

The Steelers’ offense will rely heavily on their running backs to carry the load this week as they try to control the tempo of the game and win the field-position and turnover battles. We have seen them in these key games against tough opponents and their approach is something that we have talked about many times over the years – they are just going to try to let opponents beat themselves. Steelers QB Russell Wilson has thrown only three interceptions all season, as he has performed very well and taken them to another level by unlocking some downfield passing while still protecting the ball. The “alpha” of this passing game is undoubtedly Pickens, whose absence was felt last week as he tends to a hamstring injury. Pittsburgh head coach Mike Tomlin said Pickens has an “outside chance” to play this week, although Pickens suffered the injury last Friday and has not practiced yet this week. It would seem unlikely that Pickens is able to get cleared for this game, but we will just have to wait and see.

Regardless of the status of Pickens, the Steelers are likely to play this one close to the vest. They rank 27th in the NFL in pass rate over expectation (PROE), and with Pickens out or limited, they aren’t going to force things against a very good secondary until they are forced to. Expect a healthy dose of RBs Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren both on the ground and in the passing game, while the Steelers methodically pick their spots and try to force the Eagles to march the field against their defense. Pittsburgh leads the league in turnover margin this season, and winning the turnover battle is likely the biggest key for them to pull off the upset in Philly.

How PHILADELPHIA Will Try To Win ::

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Sunday Night Football has the Packers visiting the Seahawks for a 46.5 total game with Green Bay favored by 2.5. It should be a fun one with playoff implications as the 9-4 Packers are 3rd place in their division, while the 8-5 Seahawks are in 1st but with the Rams breathing down their necks and the 49ers always a threat to finish the season strong. While we can’t say either team absolutely MUST have this game, both are highly, highly motivated. 

Seattle

On the Seahawks side, Kenneth Walker is doubtful and thus looks likely to miss another game, pushing Zach Charbonnet into a bell cow role in which he’s performed well this season. In Charbs’ three starts, he’s played no fewer than 80% of the snaps and handled 88% of the running back opportunities, including a massive 29-touch game (with 7 targets!) last week. The role here is huge and yet he’s somehow priced under $10k, which feels like an absolute bargain. Football’s weird and anything can happen but on paper he’s the best skill position player in the game, especially once salary is considered. Backing him up is Kenny McIntosh, who has not played much this season but who did have 9 touches last week (remember, though, the game was pretty one-sided with Seattle up 24-10 at halftime). McIntosh is a semi-viable RB2 play in that he probably needs an injury to Charbs in order to really have a chance at strong volume, but he could also just luck his way into a touchdown, and he’s priced cheap enough that getting into the end zone is probably sufficient for him to be in winning lineups.

Showdown Ownership Projections!

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In the passing game, the Hawks will trot out Jaxon Smith-Njigba, DK Metcalf, and Tyler Lockett as their primary wide receiver trio with Jake Bobo playing the WR4 role. JSN is a classic example of “don’t write off talented rookies based on one bad season,” as after a somewhat disappointing debut, he’s been wreaking havoc this year with a 75/911/5 season-long line (that’s good for 6th in the league in receiving yardage). He has been a bit more of a floor than ceiling play so far with only three games over 20 DK points, but in Showdown we care a bit less about that, especially when he’s priced at $8,800. He’ll mostly avoid the toughest areas of Green Bay’s secondary and is the best pass catching option on his team (and, really, in the game as a whole). Metcalf will have a tougher matchup on the perimeter and you’re just hoping that he’s enough of a badass that he can beat it. He IS enough of a badass…but I’d prefer JSN at a very similar price and with more projectable target volume and higher touchdown equity. Metcalf is a reasonable play, he just doesn’t stand out compared to JSN, whose emergence has taken some of the ceiling away. Tyler Lockett no longer has the same explosiveness as he used to as he’s getting older, and of course, JSN impacts him as well, but $4k is a reasonable price. He’s a solid value option who needs to get into the double digits in order to have a strong chance at being part of a winning lineup, but that’s something he’s done in almost half of his games this season. Bobo’s role is extremely modest, with 0-1 targets in most games that the big 3 receivers all play, so he’s just a punt option.

At tight end, Noah Fant is back which moves the TE spot to a 3-man rotation between Fant, AJ Barner, and Pharaoh Brown. Fant is a reasonable option – he’s a talented pass-catching tight end who generally sees at least 3-4 targets per game. At a similar price range, Lockett is likely to project slightly better, but Fant gets the matchup advantage as tight ends have abused the Packers for much of the season. Barner and Brown can be included as punt options but they something goose egg the target column, so there’s no floor here (slight preference to Barner as he’s the one whose role grew when Fant was injured. Brown is not a terrible receiver but overall he’s more of a blocker). 

GREEN BAY

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

The first of two Monday night games this week has the Bears traveling to Minnesota for a 44 point game with the Vikings favored by a touchdown. We get a rematch of the Week 12 game that saw the Vikings jump out to a big lead (24-10 after 3 quarters) and then Chicago tied it in the 4th on a heroic comeback before losing in overtime. This should be a fun one as Caleb Williams is showing some real signs of life and competence after a slow start to his career. If he can keep things going we should have a fun game on our hands.

Minnesota

On the Vikings side, Aaron Jones has had a bigger role than he did with the Packers, but he’s still had some weird games where he just vanishes (9 touches against Arizona two weeks ago after fumbling early, 15 touches last week when the Vikes scored 42 points). Working in his favor is that the best way to attack the Bears is on the ground. What makes the most sense here is for the Vikings to use a ground-heavy attack, especially with Jones having had relatively little work the last couple of weeks. He’s a little overpriced at $10k and maybe that keeps ownership down a bit depending on how major projection services project him vs. some of the guys around him. I’d be quite interested if he projects for something like 40-45% total ownership or less. Backup RB Ty Chandler has been iced in favor of Cam Akers, who is pretty darn bad but I suppose he’s playable as an RB2 just in case he falls into a touchdown and/or Jones gets hurt (or fumbles and gets benched again!). 

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In the passing game, Justin Jefferson finally had a real ceiling game and it only took 14 weeks to do it! The Vikings have been so dominant that they just haven’t racked up passing volume and my concern is that could be the case here. My other concern is that the last time these teams met, the Vikings were happy to let Justin Jefferson run perimeter routes against Jaylon Johnson, one of the best perimeter corners in the league, and only gave him 5 targets while focusing the offense elsewhere. Jefferson is (obviously) good enough to win in any matchup, but the Vikings chose to take the path of least resistance and largely ignore Jefferson. Will they have the same game plan this time? I have no idea but it’s enough to make me slightly wary of paying $12k for Jefferson, who will almost certainly be very highly owned due to his brand name and ceiling. He might bury me, of course, but given price and ownership this is likely to be one of my big stands of the Showdown (I’ll have some captain Jefferson, but will likely have very little in the flex). Jordan Addison was a major beneficiary of Jefferson’s matchup last time with 9 targets (2nd most on the season) for 8 catches (tied for his highest of the season) and 162 receiving yards (most of the season). That plus a big performance against Atlanta last week has led to a price spike and Addison is now $8,400, his highest salary of the season. If you want to play Jefferson, you probably shouldn’t play Addison, because if Jefferson gets his normal market share of targets then Addison is clearly overpriced for his role. But, if you think Jefferson’s role is smaller again as it was in the last matchup of these teams, you can then distribute some of his targets elsewhere, which would make Addison more fairly priced. Jalen Nailor, Brandon Powell, and Trent Sherfield will split the rest of the wide receiver snaps. Nailor’s a reasonable value option, while Powell and Sherfield play very little and are just punt plays.

At tight end, TJ Hockenson had his biggest game of the season against the Bears last time. It’s a similar thesis here to Addison, where if you think Jefferson’s role is smaller due to matchup, that creates additional target share for Hock, who had 9 targets and 114 receiving yards the last time these teams met. Unlike Addison, Hock is priced more reasonably no matter what Jefferson’s role is, and I really like him a lot – he’s a core play for me on this slate. TE2 Josh Oliver has played his way into a real role and can be viewed as more of a value option than just a total thin punt play. 

CHICAGO

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

The second Monday night game has the Falcons visiting the Raiders for a 44.5 total game with Atlanta favored by 5.5. The Raiders have looked hopelessly inept on offense lately, failing to reach even 20 points since Week 9, while the Falcons have been struggling as well on offense with Kirk Cousins having an almost unbelievable 0:8 TD:INT ratio in his last four games (while going 0-4 and scoring a grand total of 57 points, or 14.25 points per game). Yikes. This one could be ugly.

LAS VEGAS

On the Raiders side, Alexander Mattison is expected to return from injury though word is he will be a backup going forward, which would seem to imply that Las Vegas will be turning over the primary RB role to Sincere McCormick. McCormick is an undrafted free agent but he has been fantastic, running for 5.5 yards per carry in his opportunities (which includes going against the Broncos and Chiefs) while catching 4 of 5 targets. It’s scary to invest in Raiders running backs, but at $7,600 he isn’t priced for a lead back role. If he ends up getting 15+ carries and a couple of targets, he’s underpriced for his role and looks like a reasonable play. To be clear: he’s not a lock play to me, but whereas I generally don’t play Raiders running backs at all, I will play McCormick. Ameer Abdullah predictably struggled on the ground when given a shot at the lead back role and has reverted to a 3rd down back, a role he may even split with Mattison (who has been a capable receiver in his career). It’s not clear to me which of these guys will have that role, and so unless we get some clarity from beat reporters prior to the game, it’s probably just a stay away situation for me outside of small MME sprinkles as Raiders RBs just haven’t been very good at generating meaningful scores this season. If we get news it’s Mattison, he’s overpriced for an RB2 role, but Abdullah would be in play if we have clarity on his role and at least worth a little bit of exposure. 

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The Raiders quarterback situation is unclear with Aidan O’Connell questionable and Desmond Ridder as his backup. My general take here is both of these guys suck and I don’t think it makes a material difference who starts in terms of the pass catchers/game outcomes, but it makes a BIG difference on Fanduel where O’Connell is bafflingly set to the bare minimum salary of $5,000. He’ll be massively chalky, but it’s awfully tough to avoid a minimum-salary quarterback with how they accumulate points, and if he plays, I’m fine just locking him on FD. At wide receiver, the Raiders are running out Jakobi Meyers and Tre Tucker, and lately, that’s basically been it as they’ve shifted to running 12 personnel at one of the highest rates in the league (last week Terrace Marshall was the only other WR to see snaps and he saw just 22%). It’s possible Marshall’s role grows a smidge this week as he’s now had longer to adjust to playing more with DJ Turner on injured reserve, but I’d be shocked if he went past 50% of the snaps, especially with how well the two tight ends have been playing. Meyers is a volume hog and has quietly been a pretty good receiver for the past couple of years (getting double-digit targets in four of the past five weeks will do that for you). While his per-catch upside isn’t enormous, he’s relatively cheap for his target share and a solid option (I view him as being very similar to Drake London on a weaker team but at $1k less salary). Tucker is much more volatile – he’s generally been viewed as more of a deep threat, but the Raiders inability to find a quarterback who can throw deep has limited him to just 11.4 yards per catch on the season. He is very, very fast and so always a threat to break one when he gets the ball, and he’s cheap, but his floor is extremely low. Consider him a high-variance play whose ceiling is higher than the kickers he’s priced under, but his floor is lower as well.

At tight end, Brock Bowers is setting records and very much making me regret my best ball tight end strategy. He’s seeing massive target volume (9 targets/game with several games in the teens), he has 933 receiving yards on the season (5th in the NFL!), with the only thing holding him back being his atrocious offense. He’s an awesome play and I want a lot of him. He’s the second best skill position play in the game (even when price is considered) behind only Bijan Robinson. Finally, let’s look at Michael Mayer. Mayer has only been active for 7 games but he’s played a minimum of 44% of the snaps in those games, and then he played 63% two weeks ago and 81% last week as Turner being out led the Raiders to play more 2-TE sets. It’s not a guarantee that continues but if it does, he’s underpriced at $3k. He hasn’t exactly been a volume hog, generally being around 3 targets per game, but if we bump his snaps up from his season averages to the 80% range we can project him for more like 5-6 and at $3k that will play. If you think Bowers and Meyers hog most of the receiving work (which they should), that leaves Tucker and Mayer competing for the rest, and so I’d be cautious playing them together (though I wouldn’t outright block it with a rule), but both are viable and cheap. 

ATLANTA