Game Overview ::
By MIKE JOHNSON >>
- Cardinals rookie WR Marvin Harrison Jr. averaged six targets per game in their first 10 games, but he’s averaged nine targets per game since the Week 11 bye.
- Arizona has lost three straight games since its bye to fall two games out of first place in the division.
- New England’s defense has been uncharacteristically bad this season and Arizona has beaten up on weaker opponents – specifically at home.
- Patriots rookie QB Drake Maye has scored 18 or more fantasy points in five of his eight starts.
HOW new england WILL TRY TO WIN ::
The Patriots have been effectively eliminated from the playoffs for several weeks, but their objective this season is to do everything they can to evaluate and improve their prized rookie Maye. The Patriots lost a heartbreaker to the Colts in Week 13 prior to their bye and now have four games left to see if they can end the season on a strong note. New England is one of six NFL teams with a 3-10 record (so much for parity, huh?), but since they already have their QB, they are much less likely to hang it up down the stretch than the others.
It seems like most people are not appreciating just how good Maye has been this season. His offensive line is arguably the worst in the league, ranking 32nd in PFF run-blocking grade and 31st in PFF pass-blocking grade. They allow the eighth-highest pressure rate in the league and have the sixth-worst adjusted line yards per rush attempt among all NFL teams. The line is an issue that is exaggerated by the fact that the Patriots’ receivers rank 30th in PFF receiving grade and they have two players (Kendrick Bourne and Ja’Lynn Polk) in the top six of all NFL WRs in drop rate. Their snap leader at the position is second year wideout Kayshon Boutte, who ranks second to last in the NFL in separation, per NFL’s Next Gen Stats. All of that leads to a situation where Maye is forced to target slot WR DeMario Douglas along with his tight ends and running backs at a high rate. This week should be no different against a Cardinals team that plays a high rate of zone coverage and faces the sixth-lowest average depth of target (aDOT) among all NFL defenses. The Cardinals have a good run defense although they were shredded by the Seahawks last week, and they should be able to make things tough for the Patriots on the ground. New England ranks in the middle of the league in pass rate over expectation (PROE), so while they are likely to start this game playing conservatively, that should still mean a good balance between run and pass with the passing game focused on the short and intermediate middle of the field.
You must be logged in to view collective notes about a game.
You must be logged in to add notes about a game.