XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT
The first of two Monday night games this week has the Bears traveling to Minnesota for a 44 point game with the Vikings favored by a touchdown. We get a rematch of the Week 12 game that saw the Vikings jump out to a big lead (24-10 after 3 quarters) and then Chicago tied it in the 4th on a heroic comeback before losing in overtime. This should be a fun one as Caleb Williams is showing some real signs of life and competence after a slow start to his career. If he can keep things going we should have a fun game on our hands.
Minnesota
On the Vikings side, Aaron Jones has had a bigger role than he did with the Packers, but he’s still had some weird games where he just vanishes (9 touches against Arizona two weeks ago after fumbling early, 15 touches last week when the Vikes scored 42 points). Working in his favor is that the best way to attack the Bears is on the ground. What makes the most sense here is for the Vikings to use a ground-heavy attack, especially with Jones having had relatively little work the last couple of weeks. He’s a little overpriced at $10k and maybe that keeps ownership down a bit depending on how major projection services project him vs. some of the guys around him. I’d be quite interested if he projects for something like 40-45% total ownership or less. Backup RB Ty Chandler has been iced in favor of Cam Akers, who is pretty darn bad but I suppose he’s playable as an RB2 just in case he falls into a touchdown and/or Jones gets hurt (or fumbles and gets benched again!).
Showdown Ownership Projections!
Ownership updates automatically
In the passing game, Justin Jefferson finally had a real ceiling game and it only took 14 weeks to do it! The Vikings have been so dominant that they just haven’t racked up passing volume and my concern is that could be the case here. My other concern is that the last time these teams met, the Vikings were happy to let Justin Jefferson run perimeter routes against Jaylon Johnson, one of the best perimeter corners in the league, and only gave him 5 targets while focusing the offense elsewhere. Jefferson is (obviously) good enough to win in any matchup, but the Vikings chose to take the path of least resistance and largely ignore Jefferson. Will they have the same game plan this time? I have no idea but it’s enough to make me slightly wary of paying $12k for Jefferson, who will almost certainly be very highly owned due to his brand name and ceiling. He might bury me, of course, but given price and ownership this is likely to be one of my big stands of the Showdown (I’ll have some captain Jefferson, but will likely have very little in the flex). Jordan Addison was a major beneficiary of Jefferson’s matchup last time with 9 targets (2nd most on the season) for 8 catches (tied for his highest of the season) and 162 receiving yards (most of the season). That plus a big performance against Atlanta last week has led to a price spike and Addison is now $8,400, his highest salary of the season. If you want to play Jefferson, you probably shouldn’t play Addison, because if Jefferson gets his normal market share of targets then Addison is clearly overpriced for his role. But, if you think Jefferson’s role is smaller again as it was in the last matchup of these teams, you can then distribute some of his targets elsewhere, which would make Addison more fairly priced. Jalen Nailor, Brandon Powell, and Trent Sherfield will split the rest of the wide receiver snaps. Nailor’s a reasonable value option, while Powell and Sherfield play very little and are just punt plays.
At tight end, TJ Hockenson had his biggest game of the season against the Bears last time. It’s a similar thesis here to Addison, where if you think Jefferson’s role is smaller due to matchup, that creates additional target share for Hock, who had 9 targets and 114 receiving yards the last time these teams met. Unlike Addison, Hock is priced more reasonably no matter what Jefferson’s role is, and I really like him a lot – he’s a core play for me on this slate. TE2 Josh Oliver has played his way into a real role and can be viewed as more of a value option than just a total thin punt play.
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