Game Overview ::
By HILOW >>
- Kansas City’s injury report is rather clean heading into Week 15, with only OT D.J. Humphries listed as a non-participant on Wednesday.
- OG Joel Bitonio (back), DE Myles Garrett (personal), and TE David Njoku (hamstring) did not practice for the Browns on Wednesday. All three situations are key ones to monitor as primary contributors for the Browns.
- Browns WR Cedric Tillman (concussion) managed a limited practice Wednesday after missing the previous two games. I expect him to return as long as he can log a full session on Thursday or Friday.
- The Chiefs have a whopping five wins by three points or less with a ridiculous 10 of 12 wins coming in one-possession games this season.
- This game provides a clear path for our DFS consideration – covered below.
- These two teams rank first (Browns) and seventh (Chiefs) in pass attempts per game and second (Chiefs) and eighth (Browns) in pass rate over expectation (PROE).
HOW KANSAS CITY WILL TRY TO WIN ::
The Chiefs stand at a sparkling 12-1 record and are in the driver’s seat for the only bye out of the AFC. Even though the team has just one loss this season, they have a whopping five wins by three points or less with a ridiculous 10 of 12 wins coming in one-possession games. That should highlight how this team is trying to win games this season, leveraging an above-average defense to grind out wins as opposed to keeping their feet on the gas from the jump. The offense has also not looked like its dominant self this year, which makes sense considering the multitude of injuries and changes they’ve experienced in 2024. Either way, they still have one of the most clutch quarterbacks to ever play the game in Patrick Mahomes, a player that always seems to make a play when it matters most.
Lead back Isiah Pacheco saw his snap rate jump from 37% to 46% in his second game back from injury in Week 14, handling 18 running back opportunities in the process (more than double the eight he saw in his first game back in Week 13). It is safe to assume his role will continue to grow as the Chiefs ramp up for yet another playoff run, but we can’t be certain when the massive jump will come (Pacheco saw an 80% snap rate in his only fully healthy game in Week 1 but the team also added Kareem Hunt following his injury). I would expect Pacheco to eventually find himself in the 60-65% snap rate range, pending how his injury responds to the increase in workload. Kareem Hunt continues to handle change-of-pace duties while Samaje Perine handles clear passing situations and the two-minute offense, with neither expected to see enough volume to matter for DFS in a standard week. The Browns have surrendered 2.12 yards before contact per attempt (22nd), 127.9 rush yards per game (22nd), and 17.9 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields (ninth) this season.
DeAndre Hopkins has yet to play more than 65% of the offensive snaps through seven games with the Chiefs and now has a healthy JuJu Smith-Schuster to share in the primary role in this offense. Rookie Xavier Worthy leads the team in snaps this season but has seen target counts between four and seven over the previous five games. Worthy’s per-touch upside gives him a theoretical ceiling he has not realized since Week 1. Smith-Schuster has not seen more than two targets since returning from injury in Week 11. Tight end Travis Kelce always has a path to double-digit targets, but his role in this offense has left a lot to be desired on the backs of a career-low 6.6-yard aDOT. The Browns have been victimized by explosive plays through the air this season, which plays more into Hopkins and Worthy’s game than it does to Kelce’s. Even with a rather unconcentrated offense, the Chiefs rank second in PROE and average 35.7 pass attempts per game, seventh in the league.
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