XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT
Sunday Night Football has the Packers visiting the Seahawks for a 46.5 total game with Green Bay favored by 2.5. It should be a fun one with playoff implications as the 9-4 Packers are 3rd place in their division, while the 8-5 Seahawks are in 1st but with the Rams breathing down their necks and the 49ers always a threat to finish the season strong. While we can’t say either team absolutely MUST have this game, both are highly, highly motivated.
Seattle
On the Seahawks side, Kenneth Walker is doubtful and thus looks likely to miss another game, pushing Zach Charbonnet into a bell cow role in which he’s performed well this season. In Charbs’ three starts, he’s played no fewer than 80% of the snaps and handled 88% of the running back opportunities, including a massive 29-touch game (with 7 targets!) last week. The role here is huge and yet he’s somehow priced under $10k, which feels like an absolute bargain. Football’s weird and anything can happen but on paper he’s the best skill position player in the game, especially once salary is considered. Backing him up is Kenny McIntosh, who has not played much this season but who did have 9 touches last week (remember, though, the game was pretty one-sided with Seattle up 24-10 at halftime). McIntosh is a semi-viable RB2 play in that he probably needs an injury to Charbs in order to really have a chance at strong volume, but he could also just luck his way into a touchdown, and he’s priced cheap enough that getting into the end zone is probably sufficient for him to be in winning lineups.
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In the passing game, the Hawks will trot out Jaxon Smith-Njigba, DK Metcalf, and Tyler Lockett as their primary wide receiver trio with Jake Bobo playing the WR4 role. JSN is a classic example of “don’t write off talented rookies based on one bad season,” as after a somewhat disappointing debut, he’s been wreaking havoc this year with a 75/911/5 season-long line (that’s good for 6th in the league in receiving yardage). He has been a bit more of a floor than ceiling play so far with only three games over 20 DK points, but in Showdown we care a bit less about that, especially when he’s priced at $8,800. He’ll mostly avoid the toughest areas of Green Bay’s secondary and is the best pass catching option on his team (and, really, in the game as a whole). Metcalf will have a tougher matchup on the perimeter and you’re just hoping that he’s enough of a badass that he can beat it. He IS enough of a badass…but I’d prefer JSN at a very similar price and with more projectable target volume and higher touchdown equity. Metcalf is a reasonable play, he just doesn’t stand out compared to JSN, whose emergence has taken some of the ceiling away. Tyler Lockett no longer has the same explosiveness as he used to as he’s getting older, and of course, JSN impacts him as well, but $4k is a reasonable price. He’s a solid value option who needs to get into the double digits in order to have a strong chance at being part of a winning lineup, but that’s something he’s done in almost half of his games this season. Bobo’s role is extremely modest, with 0-1 targets in most games that the big 3 receivers all play, so he’s just a punt option.
At tight end, Noah Fant is back which moves the TE spot to a 3-man rotation between Fant, AJ Barner, and Pharaoh Brown. Fant is a reasonable option – he’s a talented pass-catching tight end who generally sees at least 3-4 targets per game. At a similar price range, Lockett is likely to project slightly better, but Fant gets the matchup advantage as tight ends have abused the Packers for much of the season. Barner and Brown can be included as punt options but they something goose egg the target column, so there’s no floor here (slight preference to Barner as he’s the one whose role grew when Fant was injured. Brown is not a terrible receiver but overall he’s more of a blocker).
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