Game Overview ::
By HILOW >>
- Bengals OT Orlando Brown (fibula) and DT Sheldon Rankins (illness) continue to miss practice this week after missing the previous three games.
- Titans RB Tony Pollard (ankle) has yet to practice this week, as of Thursday.
- The Bengals lead the league in pass rate over expectation (PROE) and are third in pass attempts per game (37.7), while the Titans have allowed the fewest pass yards per game this season.
- Ja’Marr Chase holds a 38.1% air-yards share, 0.28 targets per route run, 766 yards, a 35.6% first-read target rate, and a robust 0.85 fantasy points per route run against Cover-3 and Cover-4 this season, which the Titans play at an almost 60% combined rate this year.
- Chase Brown has averaged 24.4 opportunities per game, 6.8 per game of which have been targets, while scoring 19.0 DK points or more in all five games since Zack Moss was lost with a neck injury.
HOW cincinnati WILL TRY TO WIN ::
The blueprint is clear for the Bengals: Hefty pass rates, workhorse back utilization, and an 11-personnel base, creating a breeding ground for top-tier game environments in the process. While not mathematically eliminated from playoff contention, the Bengals are currently three games back from a playoff spot with just four games remaining, clearly needing a win against the Titans in Week 15. Three one-possession losses before their wild Week 14 win over the Cowboys have put their backs against the wall for the 2024 season, with this team now likely in prove-it mode for the future as a decision on what to do with some of their primary pieces looms large this coming offseason. To that end, head coach Zac Taylor seems to be auditioning his team to de facto general manager Duke Tobin, with the goal to retain his position into 2025 and to retain his primary skill-position players with wide receiver Tee Higgins playing on yet another franchise tag this year.
Brown has become a true workhorse back since Moss was lost for the year with a scary neck injury, playing 80% or more of the team’s offensive snaps in five consecutive games while averaging 24.4 opportunities per game, with a robust 6.8 of those per game coming via targets. He has also scored a touchdown in all but one of the previous five games, leading to a floor during that span of 19.0 DK points while averaging 23.14 DK points per game. While the Titans have functioned as a clear run-funnel unit, rookie nose tackle T’Vondre Sweat has come on as the season has progressed and is playing like one of the top nose tackles in the league. On the season, the Titans have allowed 1.77 yards before contact per attempt, 4.1 yards per carry (eighth), and 20.7 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields (16th).
The meat and potatoes of this offense is the pass game, with quarterback Joe Burrow playing some of the best football of his storied career. Alpha wide receiver Chase currently ranks as fantasy’s top wide receiver, by a metric mile. His 317.4 PPR points this season are a ridiculous 35% more than the overall WR2, Justin Jefferson, returning 20 PPR points or more in seven of 13 games while going over 40 fantasy points a ridiculous three times already this year. Higgins has two games over 29 DK points in eight healthy games and has seen double-digit targets four times, returning a 4x salary multiplier at a 25% clip.
A new development of late is an increase to the team’s 12-personnel rates out of their Week 12 bye, playing from 12 at a 41% clip in each of their two games post- bye. Those snaps have come at the expense of slot wide receiver Andrei Iosivas, who has made some big plays this season but largely failed to capitalize on the vacated role left behind via the departure of Tyler Boyd this offseason, particularly failing to separate at a meaningful frequency. The Titans rank first in pass yards allowed per game and third in yards allowed per pass attempt, utilizing Cover-4 at the highest rate in the league while mixing in average rates of Cover-3. Chase understandably leads the team in all metrics against Cover-3 and Cover-4 this season, amassing a 38.1% air-yards share, 0.28 targets per route run, 766 yards, a 35.6% first-read target rate, and a robust 0.85 fantasy points per route run against those primary coverages this year. That’s important here, as the Titans are in those coverages almost 60% of the time in 2024.
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