Game Overview ::
By Hilow >>
- The Texans have two players yet to practice, as of Thursday: S Jalen Pitre (shoulder) and C/OG Juice Scruggs (foot).
- Dolphins OTs Terron Armstead (knee) and Kendall Lamm (back), and WRs Odell Beckham Jr. (personal) and Dee Eskridge (knee) have yet to practice, as of Thursday.
- Since Tua Tagovailoa returned in Week 8, the Dolphins rank third in pass rate over expectation (PROE), while attempting 36 or more passes in five of seven games.
- Week 14 proved that Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle still exist and are still elite, with Hill seeing 14 targets and Waddle taking advantage of increased two-high rates from the Jets on his way to 12 looks.
- This is a must-win game for the Dolphins, who are currently two games out of the AFC playoff picture, while the Texans need to string together some wins or they’re looking at a home playoff game against the Ravens. Playoff implications are high here.
- Both of these teams rank top 10 in pass attempts per game.
How miami Will Try To Win ::
After scoring 32 points against the Jets in Week 14, the Dolphins have now scored 27 points or more in five of seven games following the return of Tua Tagovailoa from his most recent concussion, scoring 32 points or more in three of their previous four games (failing to do so against the Packers on a frigid night at Lambeau on Thanksgiving, and scoring 23 points in a Week 10 win over the Rams). Tua has also passed for multiple touchdowns in five of his previous six games (failed to do so against the Rams in Week 10) and in each of his previous four times out. And since Tua returned in Week 8, the Dolphins rank third in PROE while attempting 36 or more passes in five of seven games, with 40 or more in each of the previous three games. It is clear how this offense has adjusted during the second half of the season, with a heavier emphasis on early-down passing, quick hits through the air as an extension of the run, and a more aggressive aerial approach in general.
The matchup also should tilt the Dolphins more to the air against a Houston defense that allows just 1.49 yards before contact per attempt, 4.4 yards per carry, and the fifth fewest fantasy points per game to opposing backfields (16.2). That would significantly dent the fantasy expectation of most backfields in the league but the robust pass game role for De’Von Achane keeps his floor and ceiling intact. Achane has played 69% or more of the team’s offensive snaps in four of his previous six games, peaking at a robust 83% in Week 14 with Raheem Mostert inactive. Mostert was limited in both practices so far this week after missing last week’s game, leaving the door open for a return to the active game-day roster. With that increased pass game role for Achane has come an immense floor after he has scored 20.5 DK points or more in five of his previous eight games while seeing seven or more targets in four of his previous seven. While the floor is tangible, we’ve also seen Achane hit a 4x salary multiplier in his Week 14 salary only twice this year.
Week 14 proved that this pass offense can beat teams in many different ways, something we had neglected for the previous three weeks with the team focusing heavily on short area passing and YAC generation through Achane and tight end Jonnu Smith. Jaylen Waddle took advantage of a Jets secondary playing two-high at increased rates while Tyreek Hill saw a whopping 14 targets, his first time seeing double-digit looks since Week 5 and only his third time doing so this season. But they’re still there and they are both still highly capable pass-catchers in this league. Given their recent offensive success and their recent pass-heavy ways, we should be treating this offense as a “who is likeliest to succeed” proposition as opposed to a “will this offense succeed” one as it is both voluminous and highly concentrated amongst Hill, Waddle, Smith, and Achane. The Texans are near the middle of the pack in two-high utilization but have played the third most quarters/Cover-4 this season, the alignment Waddle has proven most successful against in his career. All four primary pass-catchers are viable in this spot.
You must be logged in to view collective notes about a game.
You must be logged in to add notes about a game.