Game Overview ::
By mike johnson >>
- Josh Allen is coming off a record setting performance with 3 passing touchdowns and 3 rushing touchdowns against the Rams. Allen is the current betting favorite for NFL MVP.
- This game has huge playoff implications for both conferences, as the Bills chase the Chiefs and the Lions try to hold off the Eagles.
- Detroit has 10 days of rest leading into this game, after playing on consecutive Thursdays.
- Buffalo has scored 30+ points in seven straight games, while Detroit has scored over 40 points four times.
- Detroit’s offensive line should be able to get a strong push in the running game against the “light” personnel the Bills use on defense.
How buffalo Will Try To Win ::
Buffalo has an outside chance at the #1 seed in the AFC if they can win this game, as their last three games are against teams with losing records while the conference leading Chiefs travel to Cleveland this week and then face three playoff teams to end their season. Buffalo owns the tiebreaker against the Chiefs thanks to their head-to-head matchup, so if they can win out and Kansas City stumbles they could force the AFC to go through Buffalo in January. The Bills lost a wild one last week against the Rams as their defense was shredded by Sean McVay and the Rams with clever play calling and motion concepts that exposed the Bills weaknesses and some star players making star plays and breaking tackles.
The Bills defense has been very, very good for much of the season. That has allowed Buffalo to cut back their pass rate and play relatively conservatively in comparison to past seasons as they protect the ball and bludgeon weaker opponents. All-world QB Josh Allen had only one 300-yard passing game prior to Week 14 as Buffalo simply hadn’t seen the same type of game scripts this year that were common for them throughout his career in the past. However, their defense is beatable and has deficiencies. A deeper dive into Buffalo’s schedule reveals that the Bills have played three games where:
- They were facing a team with talented skill players.
- The weather was good.
- Their opponent has a creative and respected play caller who runs concepts that can confuse the Bills defense.
The games that fit that criteria for me were against the Ravens, Dolphins (second time with Tua), and Rams. Those offenses, coincidentally, had the three highest point totals of the season against the Bills defense with 35, 27, and 44, respectively.
This is relevant this week because of the opponent that the Bills face and what that likely does to their approach early in the game and as things start to heat up. Detroit’s offense is terrific and can pound teams with the run while also creating explosive plays, their play caller is one of the best in the league, and they are playing in a dome. The Bills have a negative PROE for the first season in the Josh Allen era, but in a game where they are likely to enter knowing they need to score points and lacking trust in their defense, we should expect them to open things up. Detroit’s defense faces the 3rd highest opponent pass rate in the league as their stout run defense tends to make teams one-dimensional. Buffalo gets back rookie WR Keon Coleman and second year TE Dalton Kincaid, so they have all their weapons and should enter with an aggressive mindset. Detroit plays a high rate of man coverage and while they are good at getting pressure, Allen is great at keeping plays alive and finding WRs downfield. Buffalo’s perimeter WRs (Coleman, Amari Cooper, and Mack Hollins) should have some opportunities for big plays in this one. This is Josh Allen’s world, and we’re all just living in it.
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