Game Overview ::
By HILOW >>
- The Commanders currently occupy the seventh and final playoff spot out of the NFC but are just a half-game up on the surging Rams following Los Angeles’ win over the 49ers on Thursday night.
- Commanders WR Noah Brown (kidney) has yet to practice this week as he reportedly sustained a “serious internal injury,” likely ending his season. The team signed K.J. Osborn away from the Patriots earlier this week.
- The Saints’ injury woes continue to grow as quarterback Derek Carr (left hand/concussion) and RB Alvin Kamara (illness) both have failed to practice this week.
- The Saints indicated earlier this week that it will be veteran journeyman Jake Haener that starts under center over rookie Spencer Rattler if Carr can’t go. Rattler struggled mightily earlier in the season when given a three-game stint as the starter, eventually benched in the second half of his final start in favor of Haener.
HOW WASHINGTON WILL TRY TO WIN ::
The Commanders have slipped over the last month of the season, losing three straight to the Steelers, Eagles, and Cowboys before blowing out the Titans in Week 13 before their bye. They emerge from their bye with just a half-game lead over the Rams in the NFC playoff race following Los Angeles’ win over the 49ers on Thursday night. Even through a low aDOT offense, no true WR2 for large stretches of the season, and injuries to their running backs, the Commanders rank fourth in points per game at 28.9 (only the Lions, Bills, and Ravens have scored more points this season, which speaks volumes to how this team has performed). They are now likely to be without their RB2 in Austin Ekeler and WR2 in Noah Brown, claiming K.J. Osborn off waivers after he was let go by the Patriots to bolster their pass-catching corps as they make the final push to the playoffs. From a structural standpoint, no other wide receiver on the roster is capable of doing the things that Brown did for this offense.
In the first game without Ekeler in Week 13, the Commanders utilized three backs, with lead back Brian Robinson seeing a lowly 47% snap rate. I don’t know how much we can read into the usage splits considering the Commanders were leading 21-0 in the first quarter and coasted to a blowout win, but it’s at least notable that the team used Jeremy McNichols to spell Robinson on their second possession of the game. Those are important uncertainties to work through, as the matchup on the ground is pristine against a Saints defense allowing the second-most yards before contact per attempt (2.57), 4.4 yards per carry, and the sixth-most fantasy points per game to opposing backfields this season (22.6).
With Brown sidelined, I expect Dyami Brown, Olamide Zaccheaus, and Luke McCaffrey to share the remaining wide receiver snaps behind Terry McLaurin, with the offense likely to utilize elevated rates of 12-personnel through tight ends Zach Ertz, John Bates, and Ben Sinnott. I wouldn’t expect Osborn to be involved much after being acquired this week. That essentially leaves the offense as “Terry McLaurin and then everyone else,” with Ertz the likeliest to finish second in receiving the rest of the way. The Saints have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers, but we shouldn’t expect a ton of volume from the Commanders if they are controlling the game environment, as is the likeliest scenario here. For example, quarterback Jayden Daniels attempted just 30 passes in the blowout win last week, 25 passes in a blowout win over the Browns in Week 5, and 30 passes in a blowout win over the Cardinals in Week 4.
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